{ "match_info": { "home_team": "England", "away_team": "DR Congo", "tournament": "World Championship", "date": "20260701", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "5-3-2" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-0", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1251, "match_resolution": "penalties_if_level", "predicted_winner": "England", "tiebreaker": { "applies": true, "method": "penalties_if_level", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.1237, "shootout_home_win_probability": 0.62, "shootout_away_win_probability": 0.38, "penalty_home_goals": 4, "penalty_away_goals": 2, "penalty_score": "4-2", "penalty_winner": "England", "penalty_winner_goals": 4, "penalty_loser_goals": 2, "penalty_result": "England wins 4-2 on penalties", "home_advance_probability": 0.8917, "away_advance_probability": 0.1083, "projected_winner": "England", "projected_winner_probability": 0.8917, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Knockout match: a tied scoreline remains possible, then the advancing team is projected through penalties." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.1251 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.116 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0898 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0814 }, { "score": "4-0", "probability": 0.0806 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0325, "0-1": 0.0209, "0-2": 0.0068, "0-3": 0.0015, "1-0": 0.0898, "1-1": 0.0587, "1-2": 0.019, "1-3": 0.0041, "1-4": 0.0007, "2-0": 0.1251, "2-1": 0.0814, "2-2": 0.0265, "2-3": 0.0057, "2-4": 0.0009, "3-0": 0.116, "3-1": 0.0755, "3-2": 0.0246, "3-3": 0.0053, "3-4": 0.0009, "4-0": 0.0806, "4-1": 0.0525, "4-2": 0.0171, "4-3": 0.0037, "4-4": 0.0006, "5-0": 0.0449, "5-1": 0.0292, "5-2": 0.0095, "5-3": 0.0021, "6-0": 0.0208, "6-1": 0.0135, "6-2": 0.0044, "6-3": 0.001, "7-0": 0.0083, "7-1": 0.0054, "7-2": 0.0018, "8-0": 0.0029, "8-1": 0.0019, "8-2": 0.0006, "9-0": 0.0009, "9-1": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.815, "draw": 0.1237, "away_win": 0.0613 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.6662, "under_2_5_goals": 0.3338, "btts_yes": 0.4489, "btts_no": 0.5511, "home_clean_sheet": 0.5217, "away_clean_sheet": 0.062 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 86.41, "MCR": 93.89, "ATR": 93.45, "GK": 90.74 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 82.9, "MCR": 82.52, "ATR": 86.12, "GK": 86.31 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for England vs DR Congo. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Harry Kane (2)", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 5-3-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Jude Bellingham vs Noah Sadiki). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.89, Away: 0.14. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run." }, "confidence": 0.88, "home_lambda": 2.928, "away_lambda": 0.685 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.815, "draw": 0.1237, "away_win": 0.0613 }, "favorite": "England", "favorite_win_probability": 0.815, "fair_spread": 2.243, "fair_total": 3.613, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "England", "estimate": 2.928, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "DR Congo", "estimate": 0.685, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.6662, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4489, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "England", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5217, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "DR Congo", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.062, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Harry Kane (England)", "estimate": 0.7249, "probability": 0.5696, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Steve Kapuadi (DR Congo)", "estimate": 0.2534, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Harry Kane (England)", "estimate": 0.188, "probability": 0.0865, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Arthur Masuaku (DR Congo)", "estimate": 0.1864, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.613, "expected_total_shots": 22, "expected_total_passes": 812, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.8, "possession_home_pct": 53.0, "possession_away_pct": 47.0, "notes": "England projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "England", "favorite_win_probability": 0.815, "script": "England is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +2.24 goals and fair total 3.61.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 11 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; DR Congo must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A England lead likely shifts toward control and counters; if level after extra time, penalties are live; England projects as the advancing side at 89.2% overall advancement probability with 12.4% draw pressure." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "England chance creation leans on Harry Kane against Steve Kapuadi, Axel Tuanzebe in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; England projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "England: starters carry the main goal usage through Harry Kane (2); bench watchlist: Anthony Gordon, Noni Madueke.", "DR Congo: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Ngal'ayel Mukau, Simon Banza, Fiston Mayele.", "Assist usage should flow through Declan Rice; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: England tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 11 total first-half shots, and 1.81 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If DR Congo is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; if level after extra time, penalties are live; England projects as the advancing side at 89.2% overall advancement probability with 12.4% draw pressure." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for England.", "DR Congo wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "England": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Harry Kane": { "player_id": 108579, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 188, "market_value": 65000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.7249, "goal_rate": 1.1487, "goals": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.188, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 97.0918, "minutes": 93, "total_shots": 3, "duels_won": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 39, "possession_lost": 9.58, "dispossessed": 1.2973, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.9092, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 25, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.378, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Steve Kapuadi, Axel Tuanzebe", "opponent_faced": "Steve Kapuadi, Axel Tuanzebe", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 2, "goal_probability": 0.5696, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0865, "fifa_overall": 89.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186676, "match_date": "2026-06-27", "home_team": "Panama", "away_team": "England", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "England", "opponent": "Panama", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5923, "expected_assists": 0.279, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 12, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186672, "match_date": "2026-06-23", "home_team": "England", "away_team": "Ghana", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "England", "opponent": "Ghana", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.474, "expected_assists": 0.0149, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186504, "match_date": "2026-06-17", "home_team": "England", "away_team": "Croatia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "England", "opponent": "Croatia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.0252, "expected_assists": 0.0369, "total_shots": 7, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14065556, "match_date": "2026-05-16", "home_team": "FC Bayern München", "away_team": "1. FC Köln", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Bayern München", "opponent": "1. FC Köln", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 10.0, "goal_rate": 3.0, "goals": 3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.6528, "expected_assists": 0.0855, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065251, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "VfL Wolfsburg", "away_team": "FC Bayern München", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Bayern München", "opponent": "VfL Wolfsburg", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9184, "expected_assists": 0.1077, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632634, "match_date": "2026-05-06", "home_team": "FC Bayern München", "away_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Bayern München", "opponent": "Paris Saint-Germain", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2168, "expected_assists": 0.0233, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065232, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "FC Bayern München", "away_team": "1. FC Heidenheim", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Bayern München", "opponent": "1. FC Heidenheim", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2572, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632632, "match_date": "2026-04-28", "home_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "away_team": "FC Bayern München", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Bayern München", "opponent": "Paris Saint-Germain", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 1.059, "expected_assists": 0.4844, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632088, "match_date": "2026-04-15", "home_team": "FC Bayern München", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Bayern München", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2777, "expected_assists": 0.1329, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 3, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632084, "match_date": "2026-04-07", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "FC Bayern München", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Bayern München", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1766, "expected_assists": 0.8646, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 14, "combined_rank_score": 26.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 29.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.9308, "sofascore_appearances": 13.0, "fifa_rank": 23.0, "fifa_overall": 89.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 8.0918, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Harry Kane", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "James Rodríguez", "ranking": 9 }, { "player_name": "Memphis Depay", "ranking": 10 }, { "player_name": "Gustavo Henrique", "ranking": 11 }, { "player_name": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "ranking": 12 }, { "player_name": "Virgil van Dijk", "ranking": 13 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Joshua Kimmich", "ranking": 15 }, { "player_name": "Vini Jr.", "ranking": 16 }, { "player_name": "Florian Wirtz", "ranking": 17 }, { "player_name": "Danijel Petković", "ranking": 18 }, { "player_name": "Angel Fortuno", "ranking": 19 } ] } } }, "Marcus Rashford": { "player_id": 814590, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 185, "market_value": 38000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.002, "goal_rate": 0.2878, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0865, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 87.5671, "minutes": 20, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 14, "possession_lost": 5.6751, "dispossessed": 1.081, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.5405, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 35, "progressive_carries": 2, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.5, "duel_win_rate": 0.444, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Arthur Masuaku, Steve Kapuadi", "opponent_faced": "Arthur Masuaku, Steve Kapuadi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1511, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.046, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186676, "match_date": "2026-06-27", "home_team": "Panama", "away_team": "England", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "England", "opponent": "Panama", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2595, "expected_assists": 0.3704, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 4, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", 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"league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186713, "match_date": "2026-06-24", "home_team": "Colombia", "away_team": "DR Congo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "DR Congo", "opponent": "Colombia", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0098, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186709, "match_date": "2026-06-17", "home_team": "Portugal", "away_team": "DR Congo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "DR Congo", "opponent": "Portugal", "stats": { "minutes": 57, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0696, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 18, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14061906, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Lille", "away_team": "Auxerre", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Lille", "opponent": "Auxerre", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0262, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 22, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14064521, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "AS Monaco", "away_team": "Lille", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Lille", "opponent": "AS Monaco", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0253, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14167987, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Lille", "away_team": "Le Havre", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Lille", "opponent": "Le Havre", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0805, "expected_assists": 0.1935, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631843, "match_date": "2026-03-19", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Lille", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Lille", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631836, "match_date": "2026-03-12", "home_team": "Lille", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Lille", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 16683, "combined_rank_score": 1395.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 2630.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.6247, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ngal'ayel Mukau", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Edimilson Fernandes", "ranking": 16678 }, { "player_name": "Lassana Coulibaly", "ranking": 16679 }, { "player_name": "Adrià Pedrosa", "ranking": 16680 }, { "player_name": "Petros Mantalos", "ranking": 16681 }, { "player_name": "Joris Chotard", "ranking": 16682 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Joaquín Pereyra", "ranking": 16684 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Aliendro", "ranking": 16685 }, { "player_name": "Otar Kiteishvili", "ranking": 16686 }, { "player_name": "Diego Valdés", "ranking": 16687 }, { "player_name": "Tomasz Kędziora", "ranking": 16688 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.69, "expected_assists": 0.52, "total_shots": 7, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 326, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 12, "avg_rating": 83.69, "possession_estimated_pct": 47.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Elliot Anderson", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 68000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.868, "defenders": [ "Chancel Mbemba", "Steve Kapuadi" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.427, "duel_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.458, "xg_contribution": 0.046, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Chancel Mbemba", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 1800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.542 }, { "player": "Steve Kapuadi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.542 } ], "duel_analysis": "Elliot Anderson (LW) is evenly matched against Chancel Mbemba and Steve Kapuadi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 46%. The quality gap is significant (€68M vs €2M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.046 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Marcus Rashford", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 38000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.77, "defenders": [ "Arthur Masuaku", "Steve Kapuadi" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.428, "duel_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.444, "xg_contribution": 0.0013, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Arthur Masuaku", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.556 }, { "player": "Steve Kapuadi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.556 } ], "duel_analysis": "Marcus Rashford (RW) is evenly matched against Arthur Masuaku and Steve Kapuadi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 44%. The quality gap is significant (€38M vs €2M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.001 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Bukayo Saka", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 115000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.897, "defenders": [ "Nathanaël Mbuku" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.422, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.665, "xg_contribution": 0.0608, "shots_in_zone": 2.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nathanaël Mbuku", "role": "CM", "market_value": 1800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.335 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bukayo Saka (CAM) has a clear attacking advantage against Nathanaël Mbuku in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 67%. The quality gap is significant (€115M vs €2M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.061 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Harry Kane", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 65000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.863, "defenders": [ "Steve Kapuadi", "Axel Tuanzebe" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.445, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.378, "xg_contribution": 0.4805, "shots_in_zone": 2.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Steve Kapuadi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.622 }, { "player": "Axel Tuanzebe", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.622 } ], "duel_analysis": "Harry Kane (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Steve Kapuadi and Axel Tuanzebe in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 38%. The quality gap is significant (€65M vs €4M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.480 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Jude Bellingham", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 123000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.898, "defenders": [ "Samuel Moutoussamy" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.42, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.675, "xg_contribution": 0.2964, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Samuel Moutoussamy", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.325 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jude Bellingham (CDM) has a clear attacking advantage against Samuel Moutoussamy in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 68%. The quality gap is significant (€123M vs €2M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.296 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Cédric Bakambu", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 1200000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.415, "defenders": [ "Nico O'Reilly", "Djed Spence" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.802, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0014, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nico O'Reilly", "role": "CB", "market_value": 76000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Djed Spence", "role": "CB", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Cédric Bakambu (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Nico O'Reilly and Djed Spence in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€1M vs €54M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.001 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Arthur Masuaku", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 1900000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.424, "defenders": [ "Ezri Konsa" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.791, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.219, "xg_contribution": 0.0508, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ezri Konsa", "role": "RB", "market_value": 42000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.4, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.781 } ], "duel_analysis": "Arthur Masuaku (LWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ezri Konsa in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 22%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €42M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.051 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Chancel Mbemba", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 1800000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.422, "defenders": [ "Marc Guéhi" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.864, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.201, "xg_contribution": 0.0265, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Guéhi", "role": "LB", "market_value": 66000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.5, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.799 } ], "duel_analysis": "Chancel Mbemba (RWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Marc Guéhi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 20%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €66M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.026 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Samuel Moutoussamy", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.42, "defenders": [ "Jude Bellingham" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.898, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0325, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 1, "dribbles_successful": 0.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jude Bellingham", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 123000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.6, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Samuel Moutoussamy (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jude Bellingham in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €123M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.032 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Nathanaël Mbuku", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1800000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.422, "defenders": [ "Jude Bellingham" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.898, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.03, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jude Bellingham", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 123000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.6, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nathanaël Mbuku (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jude Bellingham in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €123M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.030 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.887, "away_midfield_power": 0.536, "home_creative_power": 1.021, "away_creative_power": 0.357, "home_defensive_power": 0.754, "away_defensive_power": 0.574, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.624, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Jude Bellingham", "Declan Rice", "Elliot Anderson" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Nathanaël Mbuku", "Samuel Moutoussamy", "Noah Sadiki" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 53.0, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 47.0, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 7.6, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.6, "home_throughball_threat": 3.7, "away_throughball_threat": 1.7, "key_personal_duel": "Jude Bellingham vs Noah Sadiki", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.047, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.948 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "5-3-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 5-3-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 2.928, "away_lambda": 0.685, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "CDM vs CDM" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "CDM vs CDM" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Elliot Anderson": { "opponents": [ "Chancel Mbemba", "Steve Kapuadi", "Noah Sadiki" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Marcus Rashford": { "opponents": [ "Arthur Masuaku", "Steve Kapuadi" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Bukayo Saka": { "opponents": [ "Nathanaël Mbuku" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Harry Kane": { "opponents": [ "Steve Kapuadi", "Axel Tuanzebe" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jude Bellingham": { "opponents": [ "Samuel Moutoussamy", "Nathanaël Mbuku" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nico O'Reilly": { "opponents": [ "Cédric Bakambu" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Djed Spence": { "opponents": [ "Cédric Bakambu" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ezri Konsa": { "opponents": [ "Arthur Masuaku" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marc Guéhi": { "opponents": [ "Chancel Mbemba" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Declan Rice": { "opponents": [ "Nathanaël Mbuku" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Jordan Pickford": { "opponents": [ "Yoane Wissa", "Cédric Bakambu" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Chancel Mbemba": { "opponents": [ "Elliot Anderson", "Marc Guéhi" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "Steve Kapuadi": { "opponents": [ "Elliot Anderson", "Marcus Rashford", "Harry Kane" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Arthur Masuaku": { "opponents": [ "Marcus Rashford", "Ezri Konsa" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "Nathanaël Mbuku": { "opponents": [ "Bukayo Saka", "Jude Bellingham", "Declan Rice" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Axel Tuanzebe": { "opponents": [ "Harry Kane" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Samuel Moutoussamy": { "opponents": [ "Jude Bellingham" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Cédric Bakambu": { "opponents": [ "Nico O'Reilly", "Djed Spence" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Noah Sadiki": { "opponents": [ "Elliot Anderson" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Lionel Mpasi Nzau": { "opponents": [ "Bukayo Saka", "Harry Kane" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Aaron Wan-Bissaka": { "opponents": [ "Bukayo Saka" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Yoane Wissa": { "opponents": [ "Nico O'Reilly", "Marc Guéhi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Jude Bellingham vs Noah Sadiki). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.89, Away: 0.14. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0241, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9575, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.091, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9932, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.878, "home_midfield_factor": 1.047, "away_midfield_factor": 0.948, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.845, "away_avg_quality": 0.4986, "avg_quality_gap": 0.3464, "squad_value_gap_log": 2.0162, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.7124, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.9664, "elite_count_gap": 8, "combined_quality_gap": 0.682, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.95, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.6, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.035, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0773, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.682, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1755, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9418, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 2.491, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 0.727, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 2.491, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.7273, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 2.928, "final_away_lambda": 0.685 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-07-01T13:31:03Z" }