{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Switzerland", "away_team": "3E/3F/3G/3I/3J", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260702", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "4-4-2" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1068, "match_resolution": "penalties_if_level", "predicted_winner": "Switzerland", "tiebreaker": { "applies": true, "method": "penalties_if_level", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2254, "shootout_home_win_probability": 0.5855, "shootout_away_win_probability": 0.4145, "home_advance_probability": 0.7084, "away_advance_probability": 0.2916, "projected_winner": "Switzerland", "projected_winner_probability": 0.7084, "reason": "Knockout match: a tied scoreline remains possible, then the advancing team is projected through penalties." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1068 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1059 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0994 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0991 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.0618 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0577, "0-1": 0.0563, "0-2": 0.0284, "0-3": 0.0094, "0-4": 0.0024, "1-0": 0.1059, "1-1": 0.1068, "1-2": 0.053, "1-3": 0.0176, "1-4": 0.0044, "1-5": 0.0009, "2-0": 0.0994, "2-1": 0.0991, "2-2": 0.0494, "2-3": 0.0164, "2-4": 0.0041, "2-5": 0.0008, "3-0": 0.0618, "3-1": 0.0616, "3-2": 0.0307, "3-3": 0.0102, "3-4": 0.0025, "3-5": 0.0005, "4-0": 0.0288, "4-1": 0.0288, "4-2": 0.0143, "4-3": 0.0048, "4-4": 0.0012, "5-0": 0.0108, "5-1": 0.0107, "5-2": 0.0054, "5-3": 0.0018, "6-0": 0.0033, "6-1": 0.0033, "6-2": 0.0017, "6-3": 0.0006, "7-0": 0.0009, "7-1": 0.0009 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.5765, "draw": 0.2254, "away_win": 0.1981 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5455, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4545, "btts_yes": 0.5341, "btts_no": 0.4659, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3688, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1548 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 80.79, "MCR": 83.1, "ATR": 83.55, "GK": 93.61 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.8, "MCR": 6.9, "ATR": 6.9, "GK": 6.8 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Switzerland vs 3E/3F/3G/3I/3J. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Breel Embolo, 3E/3F/3G F2", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Johan Manzambi vs 3E/3F/3G M1). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.46, Away: 0.35. Home danger zone: Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.77, "home_lambda": 1.964, "away_lambda": 1.05 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.5765, "draw": 0.2254, "away_win": 0.1981 }, "favorite": "Switzerland", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5765, "fair_spread": 0.914, "fair_total": 3.014, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Switzerland", "estimate": 1.964, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "3E/3F/3G/3I/3J", "estimate": 1.05, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5455, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5341, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Switzerland", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3688, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "3E/3F/3G/3I/3J", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1548, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Breel Embolo (Switzerland)", "estimate": 0.6014, "probability": 0.2916, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "3E/3F/3G F2 (3E/3F/3G/3I/3J)", "estimate": 0.2618, "probability": 0.3261, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Dan Ndoye (Switzerland)", "estimate": 0.3113, "probability": 0.3234, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "3E/3F/3G M1 (3E/3F/3G/3I/3J)", "estimate": 0.126, "probability": 0.2047, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.014, "expected_total_shots": 21, "expected_total_passes": 851, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.2, "possession_home_pct": 53.7, "possession_away_pct": 46.3, "notes": "Switzerland projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Switzerland", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5765, "script": "Switzerland is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +0.91 goals and fair total 3.01.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 10 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; 3E/3F/3G/3I/3J must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Switzerland lead likely shifts toward control and counters; if level after extra time, penalties are live; Switzerland projects as the advancing side at 70.8% overall advancement probability with 22.5% draw pressure." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "3E/3F/3G/3I/3J chance creation leans on 3E/3F/3G F1 against Manuel Akanji, Luca Jaquez in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; Switzerland projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Switzerland: starters carry the main goal usage through Breel Embolo; bench watchlist: Fabian Rieder, Zeki Amdouni, Andi Zeqiri.", "3E/3F/3G/3I/3J: starters carry the main goal usage through 3E/3F/3G F2; bench watchlist: 3E/3F/3G SUB F6, 3E/3F/3G SUB F7, 3E/3F/3G SUB M4.", "Assist usage should flow through Dan Ndoye, 3E/3F/3G M1; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Switzerland tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 10 total first-half shots, and 1.51 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If 3E/3F/3G/3I/3J is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; if level after extra time, penalties are live; Switzerland projects as the advancing side at 70.8% overall advancement probability with 22.5% draw pressure." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Switzerland.", "3E/3F/3G/3I/3J wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Switzerland": { "formation": "3-5-2", "players": { "Gregor Kobel": { "player_id": 556866, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 193, "market_value": 41000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.5463, "rating": 93.6084, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 29, "total_long_balls": 15, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 49, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 1.6287, "aerial_won": 2, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 8.8166, "duels_won": 2, "duels_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27, "expected_saves": 0.74, "high_pressure_saves": 0.28, "shots_faced": 1.6, "opponent_faced": "3E/3F/3G F1, 3E/3F/3G M1", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186821, "match_date": "2026-06-24", "home_team": "Switzerland", "away_team": "Canada", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Switzerland", "opponent": "Canada", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 40, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 1.7643 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186806, "match_date": "2026-06-18", "home_team": "Switzerland", "away_team": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Switzerland", "opponent": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 24, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.7303 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186526, "match_date": "2026-06-13", "home_team": "Qatar", "away_team": "Switzerland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Switzerland", "opponent": "Qatar", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.5358 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14065561, "match_date": "2026-05-16", "home_team": "SV Werder Bremen", "away_team": "Borussia Dortmund", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Borussia Dortmund", "opponent": "SV Werder Bremen", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 25, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.1778 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065245, "match_date": "2026-05-08", "home_team": "Borussia Dortmund", "away_team": "Eintracht Frankfurt", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Borussia Dortmund", "opponent": "Eintracht Frankfurt", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 29, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.0674 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065243, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Borussia M'gladbach", "away_team": "Borussia Dortmund", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Borussia Dortmund", "opponent": "Borussia M'gladbach", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 20, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.5014 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065228, "match_date": "2026-04-26", "home_team": "Borussia Dortmund", "away_team": "SC Freiburg", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Borussia Dortmund", "opponent": "SC Freiburg", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 33, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 1.2582 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13233687, "match_date": "2025-11-18", "home_team": "Kosovo", "away_team": "Switzerland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Switzerland", "opponent": "Kosovo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 29, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2049, "combined_rank_score": 288.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 473.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.85, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 103.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.6084, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Gregor Kobel", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Hyeok-chan Son", "ranking": 2044 }, { "player_name": "Alisher Odilov", "ranking": 2045 }, { "player_name": "Akmal Muzaffarov", "ranking": 2046 }, { "player_name": "Juan Viacava", "ranking": 2047 }, { "player_name": "Raniele", "ranking": 2048 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Daniel Horák", "ranking": 2050 }, { "player_name": "Sota Nakamura", "ranking": 2051 }, { "player_name": "Francesco Antonucci", "ranking": 2052 }, { "player_name": "Albert Labík", "ranking": 2053 }, { "player_name": "Mohammed Al-Thani", "ranking": 2054 } ] } } }, "Manuel Akanji": { "player_id": 383560, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 25, "height": 187, "market_value": 15500000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 89.2686, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 85, "accurate_pass": 79, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "total_own_half_passes": 47, "accurate_own_half_passes": 45, "total_opp_half_passes": 38, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 96, "possession_lost": 7.434, "dispossessed": 1.0254, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0101, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3048, "expected_assists": 0.0615, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.3589, "ball_carries": 31, "total_progression": 142, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 2, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.2, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "3E/3F/3G F1", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0563, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0772, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186821, "match_date": "2026-06-24", "home_team": "Switzerland", "away_team": "Canada", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Switzerland", "opponent": "Canada", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0034, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 72, "accurate_pass": 65, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 5, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186806, "match_date": "2026-06-18", "home_team": "Switzerland", "away_team": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Switzerland", "opponent": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0324, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 81, "accurate_pass": 80, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186526, "match_date": "2026-06-13", "home_team": "Qatar", "away_team": "Switzerland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Switzerland", "opponent": "Qatar", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2662, "expected_assists": 0.1533, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 102, "accurate_pass": 92, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 13233687, "match_date": "2025-11-18", "home_team": "Kosovo", "away_team": "Switzerland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Switzerland", "opponent": "Kosovo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 78, "accurate_pass": 72, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. 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"projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "3E/3F/3G SUB M4", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.05, "expected_assists": 0.92, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 475, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 18, "avg_rating": 6.85, "possession_estimated_pct": 46.3, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Noah Okafor", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 19800000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.629, "defenders": [ "3E/3F/3G D2", "3E/3F/3G D3" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.306, "xg_contribution": 0.0991, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "3E/3F/3G D2", "role": "CB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.694 }, { "player": "3E/3F/3G D3", "role": "CB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.694 } ], "duel_analysis": "Noah Okafor (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against 3E/3F/3G D2 and 3E/3F/3G D3 in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€20M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.099 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ardon Jashari", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 29000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.71, "defenders": [ "3E/3F/3G D4" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.523, "xg_contribution": 0.116, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "3E/3F/3G D4", "role": "RB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.477 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ardon Jashari (LWB) is slightly favored against 3E/3F/3G D4 in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. The quality gap is significant (€29M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.116 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Rubén Vargas", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 11100000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.535, "defenders": [ "3E/3F/3G D1" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.44, "xg_contribution": 0.1258, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "3E/3F/3G D1", "role": "LB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.56 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rubén Vargas (RWB) is evenly matched against 3E/3F/3G D1 in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.126 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Dan Ndoye", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 34000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.746, "defenders": [ "3E/3F/3G M2" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.575, "xg_contribution": 0.0741, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "3E/3F/3G M2", "role": "CM", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.425 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dan Ndoye (CM) is slightly favored against 3E/3F/3G M2 in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 57%. The quality gap is significant (€34M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.074 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Denis Zakaria", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 191, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "3E/3F/3G M2" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.556, "xg_contribution": 0.0457, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "3E/3F/3G M2", "role": "CM", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.444 } ], "duel_analysis": "Denis Zakaria (CDM) is slightly favored against 3E/3F/3G M2 in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 56%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.046 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "3E/3F/3G F1", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Manuel Akanji", "Luca Jaquez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.558, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1457, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Manuel Akanji", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Luca Jaquez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 10700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "3E/3F/3G F1 (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Manuel Akanji and Luca Jaquez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.146 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "3E/3F/3G M1", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Rubén Vargas" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.535, "duel_zone": "LM vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.38, "xg_contribution": 0.076, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Rubén Vargas", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 11100000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.62 } ], "duel_analysis": "3E/3F/3G M1 (LM) faces tough defensive resistance against Rubén Vargas in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.076 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "3E/3F/3G M4", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Ardon Jashari" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.71, "duel_zone": "RM vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.297, "xg_contribution": 0.0662, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ardon Jashari", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.703 } ], "duel_analysis": "3E/3F/3G M4 (RM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ardon Jashari in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €29M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.066 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "3E/3F/3G M2", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Dan Ndoye" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.746, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.265, "xg_contribution": 0.0624, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dan Ndoye", "role": "CM", "market_value": 34000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.735 } ], "duel_analysis": "3E/3F/3G M2 (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Dan Ndoye in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 27%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €34M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.062 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.739, "away_midfield_power": 0.462, "home_creative_power": 0.639, "away_creative_power": 0.503, "home_defensive_power": 0.683, "away_defensive_power": 0.393, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.615, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Johan Manzambi", "Dan Ndoye", "Ardon Jashari", "Denis Zakaria", "Rubén Vargas" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "3E/3F/3G M1", "3E/3F/3G M2", "3E/3F/3G M3", "3E/3F/3G M4" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 53.7, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 46.3, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.0, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.3, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.5, "home_throughball_threat": 2.5, "away_throughball_threat": 2.1, "key_personal_duel": "Johan Manzambi vs 3E/3F/3G M1", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.042, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.964 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.964, "away_lambda": 1.05, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "LM vs RWB" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Noah Okafor": { "opponents": [ "3E/3F/3G D2", "3E/3F/3G D3" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ardon Jashari": { "opponents": [ "3E/3F/3G D4", "3E/3F/3G M4" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Rubén Vargas": { "opponents": [ "3E/3F/3G D1", "3E/3F/3G M1", "3E/3F/3G M2" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dan Ndoye": { "opponents": [ "3E/3F/3G M2", "3E/3F/3G M3" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Denis Zakaria": { "opponents": [ "3E/3F/3G M2" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Manuel Akanji": { "opponents": [ "3E/3F/3G F1" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Luca Jaquez": { "opponents": [ "3E/3F/3G F1" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Johan Manzambi": { "opponents": [ "3E/3F/3G M1" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Gregor Kobel": { "opponents": [ "3E/3F/3G F2", "3E/3F/3G F1" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Aurèle Amenda": { "opponents": [ "3E/3F/3G F2" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Breel Embolo": { "opponents": [ "3E/3F/3G D1", "3E/3F/3G D2" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "3E/3F/3G D2": { "opponents": [ "Noah Okafor" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "3E/3F/3G D3": { "opponents": [ "Noah Okafor" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "3E/3F/3G D4": { "opponents": [ "Ardon Jashari" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "3E/3F/3G D1": { "opponents": [ "Rubén Vargas" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "3E/3F/3G M2": { "opponents": [ "Dan Ndoye", "Denis Zakaria", "Rubén Vargas" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "3E/3F/3G F1": { "opponents": [ "Manuel Akanji", "Luca Jaquez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "3E/3F/3G M1": { "opponents": [ "Rubén Vargas", "Johan Manzambi" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "3E/3F/3G M4": { "opponents": [ "Ardon Jashari" ], "primary_zone": "RM vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "3E/3F/3G M3": { "opponents": [ "Dan Ndoye" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "3E/3F/3G G1": { "opponents": [ "Breel Embolo", "Noah Okafor" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "3E/3F/3G F2": { "opponents": [ "Aurèle Amenda", "Manuel Akanji" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~54% possession expected (Johan Manzambi vs 3E/3F/3G M1). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.46, Away: 0.35. Home danger zone: Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0005, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8678, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1571, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9913, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9781, "home_midfield_factor": 1.042, "away_midfield_factor": 0.964, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6256, "away_avg_quality": 0.4374, "avg_quality_gap": 0.1881, "squad_value_gap_log": 5.3322, "top5_value_gap_log": 4.9959, "attack_value_gap_log": 5.1504, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.5856, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.95, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.6, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0219, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.106, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.5856, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1514, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9514, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.706, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 0.756, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.05, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.964, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.719, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.7059, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.756, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 1.964, "final_away_lambda": 1.05 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-30T04:36:46Z" }