{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Switzerland", "away_team": "Algeria", "tournament": "World Championship", "date": "20260702", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.138, "match_resolution": "penalties_if_level", "predicted_winner": "Switzerland", "tiebreaker": { "applies": true, "method": "penalties_if_level", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.3073, "shootout_home_win_probability": 0.5128, "shootout_away_win_probability": 0.4872, "penalty_home_goals": 6, "penalty_away_goals": 5, "penalty_score": "6-5", "penalty_winner": "Switzerland", "penalty_winner_goals": 6, "penalty_loser_goals": 5, "penalty_result": "Switzerland wins 6-5 on penalties", "home_advance_probability": 0.5294, "away_advance_probability": 0.4706, "projected_winner": "Switzerland", "projected_winner_probability": 0.5294, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Knockout match: a tied scoreline remains possible, then the advancing team is projected through penalties." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.138 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1363 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1319 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1252 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0743 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1319, "0-1": 0.1252, "0-2": 0.0613, "0-3": 0.0198, "0-4": 0.0048, "0-5": 0.0009, "1-0": 0.138, "1-1": 0.1363, "1-2": 0.0654, "1-3": 0.0211, "1-4": 0.0051, "1-5": 0.001, "2-0": 0.0743, "2-1": 0.072, "2-2": 0.0349, "2-3": 0.0113, "2-4": 0.0027, "2-5": 0.0005, "3-0": 0.0264, "3-1": 0.0256, "3-2": 0.0124, "3-3": 0.004, "3-4": 0.001, "4-0": 0.007, "4-1": 0.0068, "4-2": 0.0033, "4-3": 0.0011, "5-0": 0.0015, "5-1": 0.0015, "5-2": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3718, "draw": 0.3073, "away_win": 0.3209 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.333, "under_2_5_goals": 0.667, "btts_yes": 0.4083, "btts_no": 0.5917, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3795, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3441 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 82.38, "MCR": 84.55, "ATR": 84.07, "GK": 93.59 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 85.54, "MCR": 82.44, "ATR": 82.31, "GK": 87.01 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Switzerland vs Algeria. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Johan Manzambi", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Johan Manzambi vs Farès Chaïbi will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.81, Away: 0.57. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.69, "home_lambda": 1.123, "away_lambda": 1.02 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3718, "draw": 0.3073, "away_win": 0.3209 }, "favorite": "Switzerland", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3718, "fair_spread": 0.103, "fair_total": 2.143, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Switzerland", "estimate": 1.123, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Algeria", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.333, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4083, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Switzerland", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3795, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Algeria", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3441, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Manuel Akanji (Switzerland)", "estimate": 0.2513, "probability": 0.054, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ibrahim Maza (Algeria)", "estimate": 0.2574, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Dan Ndoye (Switzerland)", "estimate": 0.3008, "probability": 0.2868, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Riyad Mahrez (Algeria)", "estimate": 0.2429, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.143, "expected_total_shots": 22, "expected_total_passes": 963, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.2, "possession_home_pct": 51.1, "possession_away_pct": 48.9, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Switzerland", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3718, "script": "Switzerland is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.10 goals and fair total 2.14.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 11 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Algeria must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Switzerland lead likely shifts toward control and counters; if level after extra time, penalties are live; Switzerland projects as the advancing side at 52.9% overall advancement probability with 30.7% draw pressure." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Switzerland chance creation leans on Johan Manzambi against Amine Gouiri in Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Switzerland: starters carry the main goal usage through Johan Manzambi; bench watchlist: Ardon Jashari, Noah Okafor, Zeki Amdouni.", "Algeria: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Anis Hadj Moussa, Mohamed Amoura, Hicham Boudaoui.", "Assist usage should flow through Dan Ndoye; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Switzerland tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 11 total first-half shots, and 1.07 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Algeria is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; if level after extra time, penalties are live; Switzerland projects as the advancing side at 52.9% overall advancement probability with 30.7% draw pressure." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Switzerland.", "Algeria wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Switzerland": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Breel Embolo": { "player_id": 352296, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 185, "market_value": 13600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.251, "goal_rate": 0.0005, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1832, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 84.0712, "minutes": 71, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 25, "possession_lost": 7.5721, "dispossessed": 1.8344, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 3, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.4994, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.246, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Ramy Bensebaini, Aïssa Mandi", "opponent_faced": "Ramy Bensebaini, Aïssa Mandi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1721, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1221, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186821, "match_date": "2026-06-24", "home_team": "Switzerland", "away_team": "Canada", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Switzerland", "opponent": "Canada", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 7.5, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.67, "expected_assists": 0.1182, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186806, "match_date": "2026-06-18", "home_team": "Switzerland", "away_team": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Switzerland", "opponent": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.4, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.147, "expected_assists": 0.1268, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186526, "match_date": "2026-06-13", "home_team": "Qatar", "away_team": "Switzerland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Switzerland", "opponent": "Qatar", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.1436, "expected_assists": 0.8388, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14061907, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Olympique de Marseille", "away_team": "Stade Rennais", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Stade Rennais", "opponent": "Olympique de Marseille", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7833, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14064513, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Stade Rennais", "away_team": "Paris FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Stade Rennais", "opponent": "Paris FC", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 7.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14167989, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Olympique Lyonnais", "away_team": "Stade Rennais", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Stade Rennais", "opponent": "Olympique Lyonnais", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3807, "expected_assists": 0.0053, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13233687, "match_date": "2025-11-18", "home_team": "Kosovo", "away_team": "Switzerland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Switzerland", "opponent": "Kosovo", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 14898, "combined_rank_score": 741.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 139.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 1343.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.0712, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Breel Embolo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "José Luis Gayà", "ranking": 14893 }, { "player_name": "Kim Jong-Seok", "ranking": 14894 }, { "player_name": "Lutsharel Geertruida", "ranking": 14895 }, { "player_name": "Nicolò Fagioli", "ranking": 14896 }, { "player_name": "Tyrone Mings", "ranking": 14897 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Samú Costa", "ranking": 14899 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Maffeo", "ranking": 14900 }, { "player_name": "Šime Gržan", "ranking": 14901 }, { "player_name": "Kang-in Lee", "ranking": 14902 }, { "player_name": "Abbos Gulomov", "ranking": 14903 } ] } } }, "Rubén Vargas": { "player_id": 872919, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 179, "market_value": 11100000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1032, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1157, "rating": 81.9296, "minutes": 50, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 3, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 31, "possession_lost": 8.8932, "dispossessed": 1.0106, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 1.0106, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.7175, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 44, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.224, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Farès Chaïbi, Nabil Bentaleb", "opponent_faced": "Farès Chaïbi, Nabil Bentaleb", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.215, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1599, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186821, "match_date": "2026-06-24", "home_team": "Switzerland", "away_team": "Canada", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Switzerland", "opponent": "Canada", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2526, "expected_assists": 0.0583, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186806, "match_date": "2026-06-18", "home_team": "Switzerland", "away_team": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Switzerland", "opponent": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 8.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.3643, "expected_assists": 0.2013, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186526, "match_date": "2026-06-13", "home_team": "Qatar", "away_team": "Switzerland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Switzerland", "opponent": "Qatar", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 7.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3682, "expected_assists": 0.5834, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14083715, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0792, "expected_assists": 0.0506, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083702, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 54, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 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"expected_assists": 1.02, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 10, "total_passes": 491, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 83.68, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.9, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.9 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Johan Manzambi", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 54000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.837, "defenders": [ "Amine Gouiri" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.718, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.542, "xg_contribution": 0.3179, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Amine Gouiri", "role": "RB", "market_value": 30000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.458 } ], "duel_analysis": "Johan Manzambi (LW) is slightly favored against Amine Gouiri in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 54%. The quality gap is significant (€54M vs €30M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.318 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Granit Xhaka", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 8500000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.505, "defenders": [ "Rayan Aït-Nouri" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.775, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.382, "xg_contribution": 0.0473, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Rayan Aït-Nouri", "role": "LB", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.618 } ], "duel_analysis": "Granit Xhaka (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Rayan Aït-Nouri in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. The quality gap is significant (€8M vs €39M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.047 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Rubén Vargas", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 11100000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.535, "defenders": [ "Farès Chaïbi", "Nabil Bentaleb" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.517, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.224, "xg_contribution": 0.0904, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Farès Chaïbi", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 14500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.776 }, { "player": "Nabil Bentaleb", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.776 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rubén Vargas (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Farès Chaïbi and Nabil Bentaleb in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 22%. Projected xG contribution: 0.090 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Breel Embolo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 13600000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.564, "defenders": [ "Ramy Bensebaini", "Aïssa Mandi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.453, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.246, "xg_contribution": 0.2766, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ramy Bensebaini", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.754 }, { "player": "Aïssa Mandi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.754 } ], "duel_analysis": "Breel Embolo (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ramy Bensebaini and Aïssa Mandi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 25%. Projected xG contribution: 0.277 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Dan Ndoye", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Farès Chaïbi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.574, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.492, "xg_contribution": 0.0792, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Farès Chaïbi", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 14500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.508 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dan Ndoye (CDM) is evenly matched against Farès Chaïbi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. The quality gap is significant (€31M vs €14M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.079 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Riyad Mahrez", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 5200000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.465, "defenders": [ "Ricardo Rodríguez" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.419, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.489, "xg_contribution": 0.0872, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ricardo Rodríguez", "role": "RB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.511 } ], "duel_analysis": "Riyad Mahrez (LW) is evenly matched against Ricardo Rodríguez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Projected xG contribution: 0.087 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Houssem Aouar", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 7300000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.49, "defenders": [ "Nico Elvedi" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.49, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.428, "xg_contribution": 0.1241, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nico Elvedi", "role": "LB", "market_value": 7300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.572 } ], "duel_analysis": "Houssem Aouar (RW) is evenly matched against Nico Elvedi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.124 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Rafik Belghali", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 7200000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.489, "defenders": [ "Dan Ndoye", "Remo Freuler" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.582, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1119, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dan Ndoye", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Remo Freuler", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 3100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rafik Belghali (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Dan Ndoye and Remo Freuler in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.112 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ibrahim Maza", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 41000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.786, "defenders": [ "Manuel Akanji", "Luca Jaquez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.558, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.279, "xg_contribution": 0.2112, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Manuel Akanji", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.721 }, { "player": "Luca Jaquez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 10700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.721 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ibrahim Maza (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Manuel Akanji and Luca Jaquez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€41M vs €13M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.211 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Farès Chaïbi", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 14500000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.574, "defenders": [ "Dan Ndoye" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.725, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.348, "xg_contribution": 0.0379, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dan Ndoye", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.652 } ], "duel_analysis": "Farès Chaïbi (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Dan Ndoye in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. The quality gap is significant (€14M vs €31M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.038 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.658, "away_midfield_power": 0.546, "home_creative_power": 0.523, "away_creative_power": 0.537, "home_defensive_power": 0.555, "away_defensive_power": 0.509, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.547, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Rubén Vargas", "Johan Manzambi", "Dan Ndoye", "Granit Xhaka", "Remo Freuler" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Farès Chaïbi", "Riyad Mahrez", "Nabil Bentaleb", "Houssem Aouar", "Rafik Belghali" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.1, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 48.9, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.9, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.6, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.7, "home_throughball_threat": 2.2, "away_throughball_threat": 2.2, "key_personal_duel": "Johan Manzambi vs Farès Chaïbi", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.011, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.989 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.123, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Johan Manzambi": { "opponents": [ "Amine Gouiri", "Riyad Mahrez" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Granit Xhaka": { "opponents": [ "Rayan Aït-Nouri", "Houssem Aouar" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Rubén Vargas": { "opponents": [ "Farès Chaïbi", "Nabil Bentaleb", "Rafik Belghali" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Breel Embolo": { "opponents": [ "Ramy Bensebaini", "Aïssa Mandi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Dan Ndoye": { "opponents": [ "Farès Chaïbi", "Rafik Belghali" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ricardo Rodríguez": { "opponents": [ "Riyad Mahrez" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nico Elvedi": { "opponents": [ "Houssem Aouar" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Remo Freuler": { "opponents": [ "Rafik Belghali", "Nabil Bentaleb" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Manuel Akanji": { "opponents": [ "Ibrahim Maza" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Luca Jaquez": { "opponents": [ "Ibrahim Maza" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Gregor Kobel": { "opponents": [ "Amine Gouiri", "Ibrahim Maza" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Amine Gouiri": { "opponents": [ "Johan Manzambi" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Rayan Aït-Nouri": { "opponents": [ "Granit Xhaka" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Farès Chaïbi": { "opponents": [ "Rubén Vargas", "Dan Ndoye" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nabil Bentaleb": { "opponents": [ "Rubén Vargas", "Remo Freuler" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ramy Bensebaini": { "opponents": [ "Breel Embolo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Aïssa Mandi": { "opponents": [ "Breel Embolo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Riyad Mahrez": { "opponents": [ "Ricardo Rodríguez", "Johan Manzambi" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Houssem Aouar": { "opponents": [ "Nico Elvedi", "Granit Xhaka" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Rafik Belghali": { "opponents": [ "Dan Ndoye", "Remo Freuler", "Rubén Vargas" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ibrahim Maza": { "opponents": [ "Manuel Akanji", "Luca Jaquez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Oussama Benbot": { "opponents": [ "Breel Embolo", "Johan Manzambi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Johan Manzambi vs Farès Chaïbi will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.81, Away: 0.57. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.022, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8678, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1229, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0599, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9695, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9842, "home_midfield_factor": 1.011, "away_midfield_factor": 0.989, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.5629, "away_avg_quality": 0.5663, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0034, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.0078, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.0484, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.0892, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0024, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0396, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.042, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.123, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.76, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.1226, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.76, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 1.123, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-07-02T13:31:13Z" }