{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Spain", "away_team": "Austria", "tournament": "World Championship", "date": "20260702", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-0", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1371, "match_resolution": "penalties_if_level", "predicted_winner": "Spain", "tiebreaker": { "applies": true, "method": "penalties_if_level", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.1576, "shootout_home_win_probability": 0.62, "shootout_away_win_probability": 0.38, "penalty_home_goals": 4, "penalty_away_goals": 2, "penalty_score": "4-2", "penalty_winner": "Spain", "penalty_winner_goals": 4, "penalty_loser_goals": 2, "penalty_result": "Spain wins 4-2 on penalties", "home_advance_probability": 0.8577, "away_advance_probability": 0.1423, "projected_winner": "Spain", "projected_winner_probability": 0.8577, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Knockout match: a tied scoreline remains possible, then the advancing team is projected through penalties." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.1371 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1148 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.1089 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0888 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0748 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0486, "0-1": 0.031, "0-2": 0.0101, "0-3": 0.0022, "1-0": 0.1148, "1-1": 0.0748, "1-2": 0.0242, "1-3": 0.0052, "1-4": 0.0008, "2-0": 0.1371, "2-1": 0.0888, "2-2": 0.0288, "2-3": 0.0062, "2-4": 0.001, "3-0": 0.1089, "3-1": 0.0705, "3-2": 0.0229, "3-3": 0.0049, "3-4": 0.0008, "4-0": 0.0649, "4-1": 0.042, "4-2": 0.0136, "4-3": 0.0029, "5-0": 0.0309, "5-1": 0.02, "5-2": 0.0065, "5-3": 0.0014, "6-0": 0.0123, "6-1": 0.008, "6-2": 0.0026, "6-3": 0.0006, "7-0": 0.0042, "7-1": 0.0027, "7-2": 0.0009, "8-0": 0.0012, "8-1": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.7599, "draw": 0.1576, "away_win": 0.0825 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5835, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4165, "btts_yes": 0.4331, "btts_no": 0.5669, "home_clean_sheet": 0.5231, "away_clean_sheet": 0.0923 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 90.52, "MCR": 95.28, "ATR": 94.43, "GK": 92.03 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 87.13, "MCR": 84.69, "ATR": 93.85, "GK": 79.57 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Spain vs Austria. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Mikel Oyarzabal, Lamine Yamal", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Lamine Yamal vs Nicolas Seiwald). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.74, Away: 0.69. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle." }, "confidence": 0.84, "home_lambda": 2.508, "away_lambda": 0.682 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.7599, "draw": 0.1576, "away_win": 0.0825 }, "favorite": "Spain", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7599, "fair_spread": 1.826, "fair_total": 3.19, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Spain", "estimate": 2.508, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Austria", "estimate": 0.682, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5835, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4331, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Spain", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5231, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Austria", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0923, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Lamine Yamal (Spain)", "estimate": 0.6725, "probability": 0.519, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Marko Arnautović (Austria)", "estimate": 0.1746, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Lamine Yamal (Spain)", "estimate": 0.377, "probability": 0.4204, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Marcel Sabitzer (Austria)", "estimate": 0.1723, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.19, "expected_total_shots": 24, "expected_total_passes": 1060, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.5, "possession_home_pct": 52.3, "possession_away_pct": 47.7, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Spain", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7599, "script": "Spain is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +1.83 goals and fair total 3.19.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Austria must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Spain lead likely shifts toward control and counters; if level after extra time, penalties are live; Spain projects as the advancing side at 85.8% overall advancement probability with 15.8% draw pressure." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Spain chance creation leans on Lamine Yamal against Nicolas Seiwald in Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Spain: starters carry the main goal usage through Mikel Oyarzabal, Lamine Yamal; bench watchlist: Ferran Torres, Samu Aghehowa.", "Austria: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Christoph Baumgartner, Paul Wanner, Nikolaus Wurmbrand.", "Assist usage should flow through Lamine Yamal, Pedri; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Spain tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.59 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Austria is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; if level after extra time, penalties are live; Spain projects as the advancing side at 85.8% overall advancement probability with 15.8% draw pressure." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Spain.", "Austria wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Spain": { "formation": "4-3-3", "players": { "Alex Baena": { "player_id": 910031, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 174, "market_value": 43000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1128, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2315, "rating": 91.1954, "minutes": 39, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 3, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 8.2306, "dispossessed": 2.1774, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 1.0887, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1306, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 39, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.248, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Stefan Posch, Konrad Laimer", "opponent_faced": "Stefan Posch, Konrad Laimer", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.3252, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1275, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186841, "match_date": "2026-06-27", "home_team": "Uruguay", "away_team": "Spain", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Spain", "opponent": "Uruguay", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1359, "expected_assists": 0.2162, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186840, "match_date": "2026-06-21", "home_team": "Spain", "away_team": "Saudi Arabia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Spain", "opponent": "Saudi Arabia", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0498, "expected_assists": 0.1274, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 35, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14083735, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 5.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0648, "expected_assists": 0.1678, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 32, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083661, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Girona FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1024, "expected_assists": 0.1685, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632635, "match_date": "2026-05-05", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.02, "expected_assists": 0.1489, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632633, "match_date": "2026-04-29", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632089, "match_date": "2026-04-14", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0248, "expected_assists": 0.1242, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632085, "match_date": "2026-04-08", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0145, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631370, "match_date": "2026-03-18", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0584, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13233692, "match_date": "2025-11-18", "home_team": "Spain", "away_team": "Türkiye", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Spain", "opponent": "Türkiye", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 7.5, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 223, "combined_rank_score": 148.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 100.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.425, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 196.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.1954, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Alex Baena", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Gabriel Carvalho", "ranking": 218 }, { "player_name": "Fabián Ruiz", "ranking": 219 }, { "player_name": "James Maddison", "ranking": 220 }, { "player_name": "Fabián Mina", "ranking": 221 }, { "player_name": "Moussa Diaby", "ranking": 222 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Javohir Ilyosov", "ranking": 224 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Brazão", "ranking": 225 }, { "player_name": "Marquinhos", "ranking": 226 }, { "player_name": "Sergej Milinković-Savić", "ranking": 227 }, { "player_name": "Ylyas Chouaref", "ranking": 228 } ] } } }, "Mikel Oyarzabal": { "player_id": 823622, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 181, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3591, "goal_rate": 0.0567, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.119, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 94.4338, "minutes": 62, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 12, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 8.6141, "dispossessed": 1.8519, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.7619, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 15, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.601, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "David Alaba", "opponent_faced": "David Alaba", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3775, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0761, "fifa_overall": 87.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186841, "match_date": "2026-06-27", "home_team": "Uruguay", "away_team": "Spain", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Spain", "opponent": "Uruguay", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 6.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0162, "expected_assists": 0.008, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186840, "match_date": "2026-06-21", "home_team": "Spain", "away_team": "Saudi Arabia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Spain", "opponent": "Saudi Arabia", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 9.4, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.8012, "expected_assists": 0.4204, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, 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41, "key_pass": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "VriendenLoterij Eredivisie", "league_id": "37", "league_slug": "eredivisie", "league_country": "Netherlands", "season_id": "77012", "season_name": "VriendenLoterij Eredivisie 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 17603, "combined_rank_score": 2129.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 4164.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.0988, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Paul Wanner", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Gonzalo Villar", "ranking": 17598 }, { "player_name": "Pedro Gallese", "ranking": 17599 }, { "player_name": "Karl Darlow", "ranking": 17600 }, { "player_name": "Thibault De Smet", "ranking": 17601 }, { "player_name": "Steven Moreira", "ranking": 17602 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Bruno Nazario", "ranking": 17604 }, { "player_name": "Aarón", "ranking": 17605 }, { "player_name": "Jordy Makengo", "ranking": 17606 }, { "player_name": "Bobby De Cordova-Reid", "ranking": 17607 }, { "player_name": "Junior Mwanga", "ranking": 17608 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.68, "expected_assists": 0.68, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 6, "total_passes": 455, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 85.94, "possession_estimated_pct": 47.7, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.3 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "David Alaba" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.434, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.601, "xg_contribution": 0.1548, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "David Alaba", "role": "RB", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.399 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mikel Oyarzabal (LW) has a clear attacking advantage against David Alaba in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 60%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €3M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.155 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Rodri", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 45000000, "attacker_height": 191, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.805, "defenders": [ "Philipp Lienhart" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.518, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.617, "xg_contribution": 0.0936, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Philipp Lienhart", "role": "LB", "market_value": 9600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.383 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rodri (RW) has a clear attacking advantage against Philipp Lienhart in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 62%. The quality gap is significant (€45M vs €10M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.094 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Alex Baena", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 43000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.796, "defenders": [ "Stefan Posch", "Konrad Laimer" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.601, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.248, "xg_contribution": 0.0743, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Stefan Posch", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.752 }, { "player": "Konrad Laimer", "role": "CB", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.752 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alex Baena (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Stefan Posch and Konrad Laimer in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 25%. The quality gap is significant (€43M vs €19M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.074 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Dani Olmo", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 58000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.848, "defenders": [ "Nicolas Seiwald" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.501, "xg_contribution": 0.0658, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nicolas Seiwald", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.499 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dani Olmo (CDM) is slightly favored against Nicolas Seiwald in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. The quality gap is significant (€58M vs €24M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.066 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Lamine Yamal", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 215000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Nicolas Seiwald" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.57, "xg_contribution": 0.3531, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nicolas Seiwald", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.43 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lamine Yamal (CM) is slightly favored against Nicolas Seiwald in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 57%. The quality gap is significant (€215M vs €24M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.353 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Romano Schmid", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 16500000, "attacker_height": 168, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.595, "defenders": [ "Aymeric Laporte" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.503, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.461, "xg_contribution": 0.2463, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aymeric Laporte", "role": "RB", "market_value": 8400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.539 } ], "duel_analysis": "Romano Schmid (LW) is evenly matched against Aymeric Laporte in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.246 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Marcel Sabitzer", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 6200000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.477, "defenders": [ "Marc Cucurella" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.831, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.329, "xg_contribution": 0.0995, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Cucurella", "role": "LB", "market_value": 52000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.671 } ], "duel_analysis": "Marcel Sabitzer (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Marc Cucurella in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€6M vs €52M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.100 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Alexander Prass", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 8700000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.507, "defenders": [ "Dani Olmo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.848, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "xg_contribution": 0.0419, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dani Olmo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 58000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.689 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alexander Prass (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Dani Olmo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€9M vs €58M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.042 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Marko Arnautović", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2100000, "attacker_height": 192, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.426, "defenders": [ "Pau Cubarsí", "Marcos Llorente" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.759, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2446, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pau Cubarsí", "role": "CB", "market_value": 75000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Marcos Llorente", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Marko Arnautović (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Pau Cubarsí and Marcos Llorente in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €48M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.245 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Nicolas Seiwald", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Lamine Yamal" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.9, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.28, "xg_contribution": 0.0537, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lamine Yamal", "role": "CM", "market_value": 215000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.4, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.72 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nicolas Seiwald (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Lamine Yamal in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €215M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.054 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.9, "away_midfield_power": 0.603, "home_creative_power": 0.929, "away_creative_power": 0.495, "home_defensive_power": 0.676, "away_defensive_power": 0.575, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.599, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Alex Baena", "Lamine Yamal", "Pedri", "Dani Olmo", "Rodri" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Alexander Prass", "Nicolas Seiwald", "Xaver Schlager", "Romano Schmid", "Marcel Sabitzer" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 52.3, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 47.7, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.2, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.3, "home_key_passes_projected": 7.1, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.5, "home_throughball_threat": 3.4, "away_throughball_threat": 2.1, "key_personal_duel": "Lamine Yamal vs Nicolas Seiwald", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.038, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.967 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.03, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 2.508, "away_lambda": 0.682, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Mikel Oyarzabal": { "opponents": [ "David Alaba" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Rodri": { "opponents": [ "Philipp Lienhart", "Romano Schmid" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alex Baena": { "opponents": [ "Stefan Posch", "Konrad Laimer", "Marcel Sabitzer" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dani Olmo": { "opponents": [ "Nicolas Seiwald", "Alexander Prass" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lamine Yamal": { "opponents": [ "Nicolas Seiwald" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Aymeric Laporte": { "opponents": [ "Romano Schmid" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marc Cucurella": { "opponents": [ "Marcel Sabitzer" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pau Cubarsí": { "opponents": [ "Marko Arnautović" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marcos Llorente": { "opponents": [ "Marko Arnautović" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pedri": { "opponents": [ "Xaver Schlager" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Unai Simón": { "opponents": [ "Marko Arnautović", "Xaver Schlager" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "David Alaba": { "opponents": [ "Mikel Oyarzabal" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Philipp Lienhart": { "opponents": [ "Rodri" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Stefan Posch": { "opponents": [ "Alex Baena" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Konrad Laimer": { "opponents": [ "Alex Baena" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nicolas Seiwald": { "opponents": [ "Dani Olmo", "Lamine Yamal" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Romano Schmid": { "opponents": [ "Aymeric Laporte", "Rodri" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Marcel Sabitzer": { "opponents": [ "Marc Cucurella", "Alex Baena" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alexander Prass": { "opponents": [ "Dani Olmo" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Marko Arnautović": { "opponents": [ "Pau Cubarsí", "Marcos Llorente" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Xaver Schlager": { "opponents": [ "Pedri" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Alexander Schlager": { "opponents": [ "Mikel Oyarzabal", "Lamine Yamal" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~52% possession expected (Lamine Yamal vs Nicolas Seiwald). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.74, Away: 0.69. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0163, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9273, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1385, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.128, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.977, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9168, "home_midfield_factor": 1.038, "away_midfield_factor": 0.967, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.7794, "away_avg_quality": 0.5344, "avg_quality_gap": 0.245, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.7368, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.7415, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.9877, "elite_count_gap": 7, "combined_quality_gap": 0.5551, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.95, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.6, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0475, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0652, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.5551, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1438, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9545, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 2.193, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 0.715, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 2.1935, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.7152, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 2.508, "final_away_lambda": 0.682 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-07-02T13:30:55Z" }