{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Portugal", "away_team": "Croatia", "tournament": "World Championship", "date": "20260702", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.15, "match_resolution": "penalties_if_level", "predicted_winner": "Portugal", "tiebreaker": { "applies": true, "method": "penalties_if_level", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.213, "shootout_home_win_probability": 0.62, "shootout_away_win_probability": 0.38, "penalty_home_goals": 5, "penalty_away_goals": 3, "penalty_score": "5-3", "penalty_winner": "Portugal", "penalty_winner_goals": 5, "penalty_loser_goals": 3, "penalty_result": "Portugal wins 5-3 on penalties", "home_advance_probability": 0.798, "away_advance_probability": 0.202, "projected_winner": "Portugal", "projected_winner_probability": 0.798, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Knockout match: a tied scoreline remains possible, then the advancing team is projected through penalties." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.15 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.1409 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0981 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0914 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.0879 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0809, "0-1": 0.0516, "0-2": 0.0169, "0-3": 0.0037, "0-4": 0.0006, "1-0": 0.15, "1-1": 0.0981, "1-2": 0.0317, "1-3": 0.0069, "1-4": 0.0011, "2-0": 0.1409, "2-1": 0.0914, "2-2": 0.0297, "2-3": 0.0064, "2-4": 0.001, "3-0": 0.0879, "3-1": 0.057, "3-2": 0.0185, "3-3": 0.004, "3-4": 0.0006, "4-0": 0.0412, "4-1": 0.0267, "4-2": 0.0087, "4-3": 0.0019, "5-0": 0.0154, "5-1": 0.01, "5-2": 0.0032, "5-3": 0.0007, "6-0": 0.0048, "6-1": 0.0031, "6-2": 0.001, "7-0": 0.0013, "7-1": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.666, "draw": 0.213, "away_win": 0.1211 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4616, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5384, "btts_yes": 0.4045, "btts_no": 0.5955, "home_clean_sheet": 0.5226, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1538 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 90.55, "MCR": 92.59, "ATR": 89.37, "GK": 91.77 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 85.57, "MCR": 87.03, "ATR": 88.35, "GK": 86.79 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Portugal vs Croatia. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Cristiano Ronaldo", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~51% possession expected (Vitinha vs Petar Sučić). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.06, Away: 0.83. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle." }, "confidence": 0.79, "home_lambda": 1.971, "away_lambda": 0.683 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.666, "draw": 0.213, "away_win": 0.1211 }, "favorite": "Portugal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.666, "fair_spread": 1.288, "fair_total": 2.654, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Portugal", "estimate": 1.971, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Croatia", "estimate": 0.683, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4616, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4045, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Portugal", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5226, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Croatia", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1538, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal)", "estimate": 0.8553, "probability": 0.377, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Josip Stanišić (Croatia)", "estimate": 0.1752, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Bruno Fernandes (Portugal)", "estimate": 0.3945, "probability": 0.3426, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Josip Stanišić (Croatia)", "estimate": 0.1439, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.654, "expected_total_shots": 23, "expected_total_passes": 993, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.8, "possession_home_pct": 51.1, "possession_away_pct": 48.9, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Portugal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.666, "script": "Portugal is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +1.29 goals and fair total 2.65.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Croatia must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Portugal lead likely shifts toward control and counters; if level after extra time, penalties are live; Portugal projects as the advancing side at 79.8% overall advancement probability with 21.3% draw pressure." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Portugal chance creation leans on Cristiano Ronaldo against Marin Pongračić in Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Portugal: starters carry the main goal usage through Cristiano Ronaldo; bench watchlist: João Neves, Rafael Leão, Gonçalo Ramos.", "Croatia: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Igor Matanović, Franjo Ivanović, Petar Musa.", "Assist usage should flow through Bruno Fernandes; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Portugal tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.33 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Croatia is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; if level after extra time, penalties are live; Portugal projects as the advancing side at 79.8% overall advancement probability with 21.3% draw pressure." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Portugal.", "Croatia wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Portugal": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Cristiano Ronaldo": { "player_id": 750, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 187, "market_value": 10400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.8553, "goal_rate": 0.8444, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0424, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 92.0521, "minutes": 89, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 13, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 26, "possession_lost": 5.8775, "dispossessed": 1.0081, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 3, "xgot": 0.8872, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 15, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.48, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Marin Pongračić", "opponent_faced": "Marin Pongračić", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.377, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0201, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186696, "match_date": "2026-06-27", "home_team": "Colombia", "away_team": "Portugal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Portugal", "opponent": "Colombia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1321, "expected_assists": 0.035, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186858, "match_date": "2026-06-23", "home_team": "Portugal", "away_team": "Uzbekistan", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Portugal", "opponent": "Uzbekistan", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.6, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.5956, "expected_assists": 0.0345, "total_shots": 7, "shots_on_target": 5, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186709, "match_date": "2026-06-17", "home_team": "Portugal", "away_team": "DR Congo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Portugal", "opponent": "DR Congo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4603, "expected_assists": 0.0484, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 19, "aerial_won": 2, 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14771891, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Al-Nassr", "away_team": "Al-Hilal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Al-Nassr", "opponent": "Al-Hilal", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3472, "expected_assists": 0.1272, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Saudi Pro League", "league_id": "955", "league_slug": "saudi-pro-league", "league_country": "Saudi Arabia", "season_id": "80443", "season_name": "Saudi Pro League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14773797, "match_date": "2026-05-07", "home_team": "Al-Shabab", "away_team": "Al-Nassr", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Al-Nassr", "opponent": "Al-Shabab", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8211, "expected_assists": 0.0024, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Saudi Pro League", "league_id": "955", "league_slug": "saudi-pro-league", "league_country": "Saudi Arabia", "season_id": "80443", "season_name": "Saudi Pro League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 236, "combined_rank_score": 151.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 151.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.0521, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Cristiano Ronaldo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Julio González", "ranking": 231 }, { "player_name": "Juan Pablo Vargas", "ranking": 232 }, { "player_name": "Mateo Kovačić", "ranking": 233 }, { "player_name": "Alexander Sørloth", "ranking": 234 }, { "player_name": "Giovane", "ranking": 235 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Anthony Gordon", "ranking": 237 }, { "player_name": "Paulo Dybala", "ranking": 238 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Mec", "ranking": 239 }, { "player_name": "Claudinho", "ranking": 240 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Ramos Mingo", "ranking": 241 } ] } } }, "João Félix": { "player_id": 851671, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 181, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2948, "goal_rate": 0.0323, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.2598, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 86.6936, "minutes": 95, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 26, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 27, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 7, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 58, 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"league_slug": "saudi-pro-league", "league_country": "Saudi Arabia", "season_id": "80443", "season_name": "Saudi Pro League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14771891, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Al-Nassr", "away_team": "Al-Hilal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Al-Nassr", "opponent": "Al-Hilal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1927, "expected_assists": 0.1591, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Saudi Pro League", "league_id": "955", "league_slug": "saudi-pro-league", "league_country": "Saudi Arabia", "season_id": "80443", "season_name": "Saudi Pro League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14773797, "match_date": "2026-05-07", "home_team": "Al-Shabab", "away_team": "Al-Nassr", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Al-Nassr", "opponent": 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"is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Croatia", "opponent": "Montenegro", "stats": { "minutes": 55, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 11, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 16444, "combined_rank_score": 1224.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 185.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1857, "sofascore_appearances": 7.0, "fifa_rank": 2264.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.8745, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Franjo Ivanović", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Taison", "ranking": 16439 }, { "player_name": "Milot Rashica", "ranking": 16440 }, { "player_name": "Alexander Meyer", "ranking": 16441 }, { "player_name": "André Almeida", "ranking": 16442 }, { "player_name": "Reiss Nelson", "ranking": 16443 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Miguel Borja", "ranking": 16445 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Ávalos", "ranking": 16446 }, { "player_name": "Filip Ugrinić", "ranking": 16447 }, { "player_name": "Tiago Djaló", "ranking": 16448 }, { "player_name": "Yoann Cathline", "ranking": 16449 } ] } } }, "Luka Sučić": { "player_id": 949156, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 185, "market_value": 10900000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0037, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0086, "rating": 84.5339, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 4, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 8, "possession_lost": 1.881, "dispossessed": 1.5148, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 3, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 3, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0727, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.516, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.35, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.595, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186520, "match_date": "2026-06-23", "home_team": "Panama", "away_team": "Croatia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Croatia", "opponent": "Panama", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0543, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14083719, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4355, "expected_assists": 0.0184, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083687, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 33, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0101, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 8, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083624, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0138, "expected_assists": 0.0227, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 30, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 14347, "combined_rank_score": 599.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 208.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.15, "sofascore_appearances": 2.0, "fifa_rank": 990.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.5339, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Luka Sučić", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mauricio Vera", "ranking": 14342 }, { "player_name": "Jardel", "ranking": 14343 }, { "player_name": "Jin-woo Bae", "ranking": 14344 }, { "player_name": "Luis Caicedo", "ranking": 14345 }, { "player_name": "Guillaume Restes", "ranking": 14346 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Daniel Hall", "ranking": 14348 }, { "player_name": "Roméo Lavia", "ranking": 14349 }, { "player_name": "Amadou Onana", "ranking": 14350 }, { "player_name": "Min-jae Kim", "ranking": 14351 }, { "player_name": "Jasper Cillessen", "ranking": 14352 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.68, "expected_assists": 0.68, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 7, "total_passes": 452, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 86.6, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.9, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.8 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Bruno Fernandes", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 32000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.732, "defenders": [ "Josip Šutalo" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.558, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.514, "xg_contribution": 0.0979, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Josip Šutalo", "role": "RB", "market_value": 13100000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.486 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bruno Fernandes (LW) is slightly favored against Josip Šutalo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. The quality gap is significant (€32M vs €13M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.098 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Cristiano Ronaldo", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 10400000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.527, "defenders": [ "Marin Pongračić" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.473, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.48, "xg_contribution": 0.5681, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marin Pongračić", "role": "LB", "market_value": 5900000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.52 } ], "duel_analysis": "Cristiano Ronaldo (RW) is evenly matched against Marin Pongračić in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Projected xG contribution: 0.568 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Rúben Neves", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Luka Modrić", "Mateo Kovačić" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.483, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.345, "xg_contribution": 0.098, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Luka Modrić", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 3800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.655 }, { "player": "Mateo Kovačić", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 9700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.655 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rúben Neves (CAM) faces tough defensive resistance against Luka Modrić and Mateo Kovačić in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 35%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €7M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.098 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "João Félix", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Joško Gvardiol", "Josip Stanišić" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.818, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1958, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Joško Gvardiol", "role": "CB", "market_value": 64000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Josip Stanišić", "role": "CB", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "João Félix (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Joško Gvardiol and Josip Stanišić in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €52M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.196 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Pedro Neto", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 58000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.848, "defenders": [ "Luka Modrić" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.447, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.596, "xg_contribution": 0.101, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Luka Modrić", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 3800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.404 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pedro Neto (CDM) is slightly favored against Luka Modrić in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 60%. The quality gap is significant (€58M vs €4M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.101 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Ivan Perišić", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 1200000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.415, "defenders": [ "João Cancelo" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.506, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.459, "xg_contribution": 0.1961, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 1.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "João Cancelo", "role": "RB", "market_value": 8600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.541 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ivan Perišić (LW) is evenly matched against João Cancelo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.196 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Petar Sučić", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Nuno Mendes" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.879, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.46, "xg_contribution": 0.3023, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nuno Mendes", "role": "LB", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.54 } ], "duel_analysis": "Petar Sučić (RW) is evenly matched against Nuno Mendes in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €77M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.302 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Martin Baturina", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 28000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.702, "defenders": [ "Pedro Neto", "Vitinha" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.873, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.187, "xg_contribution": 0.0328, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pedro Neto", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 58000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.813 }, { "player": "Vitinha", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 130000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.813 } ], "duel_analysis": "Martin Baturina (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Pedro Neto and Vitinha in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. The quality gap is significant (€28M vs €94M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.033 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ante Budimir", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2600000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.432, "defenders": [ "Renato Veiga", "Rúben Dias" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.761, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2574, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Renato Veiga", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Rúben Dias", "role": "CB", "market_value": 60000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ante Budimir (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Renato Veiga and Rúben Dias in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €42M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.257 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Luka Modrić", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 3800000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.447, "defenders": [ "Pedro Neto" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.848, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.244, "xg_contribution": 0.0386, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pedro Neto", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 58000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.4, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.756 } ], "duel_analysis": "Luka Modrić (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Pedro Neto in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €58M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.039 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.812, "away_midfield_power": 0.627, "home_creative_power": 0.787, "away_creative_power": 0.56, "home_defensive_power": 0.666, "away_defensive_power": 0.681, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.564, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Bruno Fernandes", "Pedro Neto", "Vitinha", "Rúben Neves" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Luka Modrić", "Mateo Kovačić", "Martin Baturina", "Ivan Perišić", "Petar Sučić" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.1, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 48.9, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.0, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.8, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.2, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.9, "home_throughball_threat": 3.0, "away_throughball_threat": 2.3, "key_personal_duel": "Vitinha vs Petar Sučić", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.019, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.98 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.971, "away_lambda": 0.683, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Bruno Fernandes": { "opponents": [ "Josip Šutalo", "Ivan Perišić" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Cristiano Ronaldo": { "opponents": [ "Marin Pongračić" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Rúben Neves": { "opponents": [ "Luka Modrić", "Mateo Kovačić", "Martin Baturina", "Petar Sučić" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "João Félix": { "opponents": [ "Joško Gvardiol", "Josip Stanišić" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Pedro Neto": { "opponents": [ "Luka Modrić", "Martin Baturina" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "João Cancelo": { "opponents": [ "Ivan Perišić" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nuno Mendes": { "opponents": [ "Petar Sučić" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Vitinha": { "opponents": [ "Martin Baturina", "Mateo Kovačić" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Renato Veiga": { "opponents": [ "Ante Budimir" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Rúben Dias": { "opponents": [ "Ante Budimir" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Diogo Costa": { "opponents": [ "Ante Budimir", "Petar Sučić" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Josip Šutalo": { "opponents": [ "Bruno Fernandes" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marin Pongračić": { "opponents": [ "Cristiano Ronaldo" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Luka Modrić": { "opponents": [ "Rúben Neves", "Pedro Neto" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Mateo Kovačić": { "opponents": [ "Rúben Neves", "Vitinha" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Joško Gvardiol": { "opponents": [ "João Félix" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Josip Stanišić": { "opponents": [ "João Félix" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ivan Perišić": { "opponents": [ "João Cancelo", "Bruno Fernandes" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Petar Sučić": { "opponents": [ "Nuno Mendes", "Rúben Neves" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Martin Baturina": { "opponents": [ "Pedro Neto", "Vitinha", "Rúben Neves" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ante Budimir": { "opponents": [ "Renato Veiga", "Rúben Dias" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Dominik Livaković": { "opponents": [ "Cristiano Ronaldo", "João Félix" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~51% possession expected (Vitinha vs Petar Sučić). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.06, Away: 0.83. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0051, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8657, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1435, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9333, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8992, "home_midfield_factor": 1.019, "away_midfield_factor": 0.98, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.7274, "away_avg_quality": 0.5984, "avg_quality_gap": 0.129, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.7339, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.6166, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.0766, "elite_count_gap": 2, "combined_quality_gap": 0.2527, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.5559, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.3537, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0437, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0328, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.9707, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.6828, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 1.971, "final_away_lambda": 0.683 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-07-02T13:30:54Z" }