{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Switzerland", "away_team": "Ecuador", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260702", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-0", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1834, "match_resolution": "penalties_if_level", "predicted_winner": "Ecuador", "tiebreaker": { "applies": true, "method": "penalties_if_level", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.3393, "shootout_home_win_probability": 0.4654, "shootout_away_win_probability": 0.5346, "penalty_home_goals": 5, "penalty_away_goals": 6, "penalty_score": "5-6", "penalty_winner": "Ecuador", "penalty_winner_goals": 6, "penalty_loser_goals": 5, "penalty_result": "Ecuador wins 6-5 on penalties", "home_advance_probability": 0.4229, "away_advance_probability": 0.5771, "projected_winner": "Ecuador", "projected_winner_probability": 0.5771, "final_score_after_penalties": "0-0 (Ecuador wins 6-5 on penalties)", "reason": "Knockout match: a tied scoreline remains possible, then the advancing team is projected through penalties." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1834 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1751 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1324 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1309 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0855 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1834, "0-1": 0.1751, "0-2": 0.0855, "0-3": 0.0276, "0-4": 0.0067, "0-5": 0.0013, "1-0": 0.1324, "1-1": 0.1309, "1-2": 0.0628, "1-3": 0.0203, "1-4": 0.0049, "1-5": 0.001, "2-0": 0.0491, "2-1": 0.0476, "2-2": 0.023, "2-3": 0.0074, "2-4": 0.0018, "3-0": 0.012, "3-1": 0.0116, "3-2": 0.0056, "3-3": 0.0018, "4-0": 0.0022, "4-1": 0.0021, "4-2": 0.001 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.265, "draw": 0.3393, "away_win": 0.3957 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.2437, "under_2_5_goals": 0.7563, "btts_yes": 0.3241, "btts_no": 0.6759, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3795, "away_clean_sheet": 0.4798 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 76.9, "MCR": 83.17, "ATR": 83.63, "GK": 93.59 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 87.67, "MCR": 84.27, "ATR": 91.78, "GK": 76.81 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Switzerland vs Ecuador. Most likely scoreline: 0-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Johan Manzambi (CM) — Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel [0.243 xG]", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Johan Manzambi vs Moisés Caicedo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.59, Away: 0.29. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.66, "home_lambda": 0.773, "away_lambda": 1.02 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.265, "draw": 0.3393, "away_win": 0.3957 }, "favorite": "Ecuador", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3957, "fair_spread": -0.247, "fair_total": 1.793, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Switzerland", "estimate": 0.773, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Ecuador", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.2437, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3241, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Switzerland", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3795, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Ecuador", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4798, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Breel Embolo (Switzerland)", "estimate": 0.2041, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Joel Ordóñez (Ecuador)", "estimate": 0.2789, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Dan Ndoye (Switzerland)", "estimate": 0.2721, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Moisés Caicedo (Ecuador)", "estimate": 0.1675, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 1.793, "expected_total_shots": 22, "expected_total_passes": 715, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.4, "possession_home_pct": 51.2, "possession_away_pct": 48.8, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Ecuador", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3957, "script": "Ecuador is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.25 goals and fair total 1.79.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 11 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Switzerland must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Ecuador lead likely shifts toward control and counters; if level after extra time, penalties are live; Ecuador projects as the advancing side at 57.7% overall advancement probability with 33.9% draw pressure." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Switzerland chance creation leans on Johan Manzambi against Moisés Caicedo in Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Switzerland: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Marcelino Núñez, Ben Brereton Díaz, Alexander Aravena.", "Ecuador: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Denil Castillo, Kevin Rodriguez, John Mercado.", "Assist usage should flow through the projected key-pass leaders; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Ecuador tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 11 total first-half shots, and 0.90 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Switzerland is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; if level after extra time, penalties are live; Ecuador projects as the advancing side at 57.7% overall advancement probability with 33.9% draw pressure." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Ecuador.", "Switzerland wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Switzerland": { "formation": "3-5-2", "players": { "Gregor Kobel": { "player_id": 556866, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 193, "market_value": 41000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.5196, "rating": 93.5924, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 29, "total_long_balls": 15, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 49, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 1.6287, "aerial_won": 2, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 8.8166, "duels_won": 2, "duels_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 27, "expected_saves": 0.6, "high_pressure_saves": 0.23, "shots_faced": 1.3, "opponent_faced": "Jeremy Arevalo, Keny Arroyo", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186821, "match_date": "2026-06-24", "home_team": "Switzerland", "away_team": "Canada", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Switzerland", "opponent": "Canada", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 40, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 1.7643 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186806, "match_date": "2026-06-18", "home_team": "Switzerland", "away_team": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Switzerland", "opponent": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 24, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.7303 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186526, "match_date": "2026-06-13", "home_team": "Qatar", "away_team": "Switzerland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Switzerland", "opponent": "Qatar", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.5358 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14065561, "match_date": "2026-05-16", "home_team": "SV Werder Bremen", "away_team": "Borussia Dortmund", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Borussia Dortmund", "opponent": "SV Werder Bremen", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 25, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.1778 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065245, "match_date": "2026-05-08", "home_team": "Borussia Dortmund", "away_team": "Eintracht Frankfurt", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Borussia Dortmund", "opponent": "Eintracht Frankfurt", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 29, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.0674 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065243, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Borussia M'gladbach", "away_team": "Borussia Dortmund", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Borussia Dortmund", "opponent": "Borussia M'gladbach", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 20, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.5014 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065228, "match_date": "2026-04-26", "home_team": "Borussia Dortmund", "away_team": "SC Freiburg", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Borussia Dortmund", "opponent": 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"player_name": "Daniel Horák", "ranking": 2050 }, { "player_name": "Sota Nakamura", "ranking": 2051 }, { "player_name": "Francesco Antonucci", "ranking": 2052 }, { "player_name": "Albert Labík", "ranking": 2053 }, { "player_name": "Mohammed Al-Thani", "ranking": 2054 } ] } } }, "Manuel Akanji": { "player_id": 383560, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 25, "height": 187, "market_value": 15500000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 89.2927, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 85, "accurate_pass": 79, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "total_own_half_passes": 47, "accurate_own_half_passes": 45, "total_opp_half_passes": 38, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 34, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 96, "possession_lost": 7.434, "dispossessed": 1.0254, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, 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"duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186526, "match_date": "2026-06-13", "home_team": "Qatar", "away_team": "Switzerland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Switzerland", "opponent": "Qatar", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2662, "expected_assists": 0.1533, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 102, "accurate_pass": 92, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 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UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1802, "combined_rank_score": 270.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 132.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3167, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 408.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.2927, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Manuel Akanji", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Shintaro Nago", "ranking": 1797 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Fernandes", "ranking": 1798 }, { "player_name": "René Mitongo", "ranking": 1799 }, { "player_name": "Makoto Mitsuta", "ranking": 1800 }, { "player_name": "Seny Koumbassa", "ranking": 1801 } ], "lower": [ { 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CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 20645, "combined_rank_score": 4625.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 393.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.925, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 8857.0, "fifa_overall": 67.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.5508, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kevin Rodriguez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Bruninho", "ranking": 20640 }, { "player_name": "Ephron Mason-Clark", "ranking": 20641 }, { "player_name": "Matteo Pérez Vinlöf", "ranking": 20642 }, { "player_name": "Mateo Pellegrino", "ranking": 20643 }, { "player_name": "Nicolas Schmid", "ranking": 20644 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Bilal Bafdili", "ranking": 20646 }, { "player_name": "Nicholas Pierini", "ranking": 20647 }, { "player_name": "Ime Okon", "ranking": 20648 }, { "player_name": "Milan Havel", "ranking": 20649 }, { "player_name": "Luca Martínez Dupuy", "ranking": 20650 } ] } } }, "John Mercado": { "player_id": 1002514, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 184, "market_value": 4099999, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0276, "goal_rate": 0.0003, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0102, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 76.3273, "minutes": 25, "total_shots": 1, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 10, "possession_lost": 3.6074, "dispossessed": 1.9706, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0444, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 29, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.442, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16073315, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "AC Sparta Praha", "away_team": "FC Hradec Králové", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "AC Sparta Praha", "opponent": "FC Hradec Králové", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "expected_goals": 0.1316, "expected_assists": 0.1151, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Czech First League", "league_id": "172", "league_slug": "1-liga", "league_country": "Czech Republic", "season_id": "77019", "season_name": "Chance Liga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 16073307, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "FC Slovan Liberec", "away_team": "AC Sparta Praha", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "AC Sparta Praha", "opponent": "FC Slovan Liberec", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "expected_goals": 0.2884, "expected_assists": 0.0707, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Czech First League", "league_id": "172", "league_slug": "1-liga", "league_country": "Czech Republic", "season_id": "77019", "season_name": "Chance Liga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13129491, "match_date": "2025-03-21", "home_team": "Ecuador", "away_team": "Venezuela", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ecuador", "opponent": "Venezuela", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 18678, "combined_rank_score": 2958.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 5687.0, "fifa_overall": 70.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.3273, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "John Mercado", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Godfried Frimpong", "ranking": 18673 }, { "player_name": "Harlen Castillo", "ranking": 18674 }, { "player_name": "Emeka Eneli", "ranking": 18675 }, { "player_name": "Chris Bedia", "ranking": 18676 }, { "player_name": "Gonzalo Valle", "ranking": 18677 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Liam Cullen", "ranking": 18679 }, { "player_name": "Séamus Coleman", "ranking": 18680 }, { "player_name": "Przemysław Wiśniewski", "ranking": 18681 }, { "player_name": "Claudio Gomes", "ranking": 18682 }, { "player_name": "Bazoumana Touré", "ranking": 18683 } ] } } }, "Denil Castillo": { "player_id": 1145126, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 187, "market_value": 7200000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "rating": 73.573, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 0, "accurate_own_half_passes": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 2, "possession_lost": 0.7368, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 2, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.508, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.18, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.442, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 67.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15631834, "match_date": "2026-03-12", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "FC Midtjylland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Midtjylland", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13129491, "match_date": "2025-03-21", "home_team": "Ecuador", "away_team": "Venezuela", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Ecuador", "opponent": "Venezuela", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 20288, "combined_rank_score": 4331.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 8449.0, "fifa_overall": 67.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.573, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Denil Castillo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Aitor Córdoba", "ranking": 20283 }, { "player_name": "Aremu Afeez", "ranking": 20284 }, { "player_name": "Niklas Vesterlund", "ranking": 20285 }, { "player_name": "John Brooks", "ranking": 20286 }, { "player_name": "Pulido", "ranking": 20287 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Tae-hwan Kim", "ranking": 20289 }, { "player_name": "Sebastian Holmén", "ranking": 20290 }, { "player_name": "Sven Köhler", "ranking": 20291 }, { "player_name": "Luciano Lollo", "ranking": 20292 }, { "player_name": "Mats Seuntjens", "ranking": 20293 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.61, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 11, "total_passes": 378, "interceptions": 10, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 85.51, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.8, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.3 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Noah Okafor", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Willian Pacho", "Joel Ordóñez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.818, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1023, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Willian Pacho", "role": "CB", "market_value": 76000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Joel Ordóñez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Noah Okafor (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Willian Pacho and Joel Ordóñez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €56M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.102 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ardon Jashari", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 29000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.71, "defenders": [ "Pervis Estupiñán" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.535, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.499, "xg_contribution": 0.1124, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pervis Estupiñán", "role": "RB", "market_value": 11100000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.501 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ardon Jashari (LWB) is evenly matched against Pervis Estupiñán in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. The quality gap is significant (€29M vs €11M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.112 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Rubén Vargas", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 11100000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.535, "defenders": [ "Piero Hincapié" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.809, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.257, "xg_contribution": 0.0931, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Piero Hincapié", "role": "LB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.743 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rubén Vargas (RWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Piero Hincapié in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€11M vs €46M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.093 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Johan Manzambi", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 54000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.837, "defenders": [ "Moisés Caicedo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.897, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.439, "xg_contribution": 0.2432, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Moisés Caicedo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 115000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.561 } ], "duel_analysis": "Johan Manzambi (CM) is evenly matched against Moisés Caicedo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. The quality gap is significant (€54M vs €115M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.243 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Denis Zakaria", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 191, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Moisés Caicedo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.897, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.377, "xg_contribution": 0.0371, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Moisés Caicedo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 115000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.623 } ], "duel_analysis": "Denis Zakaria (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Moisés Caicedo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €115M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.037 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Nilson Angulo", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 16500000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.595, "defenders": [ "Rubén Vargas" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.535, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.479, "xg_contribution": 0.0468, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Rubén Vargas", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 11100000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.521 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nilson Angulo (LW) is evenly matched against Rubén Vargas in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Projected xG contribution: 0.047 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Keny Arroyo", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 9700000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.519, "defenders": [ "Ardon Jashari" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.71, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.338, "xg_contribution": 0.0931, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ardon Jashari", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.662 } ], "duel_analysis": "Keny Arroyo (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Ardon Jashari in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€10M vs €29M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.093 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Gonzalo Plata", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 8600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.506, "defenders": [ "Johan Manzambi", "Denis Zakaria" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.761, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM + CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0297, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Johan Manzambi", "role": "CM", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Denis Zakaria", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gonzalo Plata (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Johan Manzambi and Denis Zakaria in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€9M vs €40M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.030 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Jeremy Arevalo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7200000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.489, "defenders": [ "Manuel Akanji", "Bruno Ogbus" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.576, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0964, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Manuel Akanji", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Bruno Ogbus", "role": "CB", "market_value": 14000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jeremy Arevalo (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Manuel Akanji and Bruno Ogbus in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.096 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Moisés Caicedo", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 115000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.897, "defenders": [ "Johan Manzambi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.837, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.411, "xg_contribution": 0.0192, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Johan Manzambi", "role": "CM", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.589 } ], "duel_analysis": "Moisés Caicedo (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Johan Manzambi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. The quality gap is significant (€115M vs €54M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.019 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.753, "away_midfield_power": 0.656, "home_creative_power": 0.639, "away_creative_power": 0.685, "home_defensive_power": 0.702, "away_defensive_power": 0.573, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.534, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Johan Manzambi", "Dan Ndoye", "Ardon Jashari", "Denis Zakaria", "Rubén Vargas" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Moisés Caicedo", "Nilson Angulo", "Keny Arroyo", "Kendry Páez", "Gonzalo Plata" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.2, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 48.8, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.1, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.3, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.3, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.6, "home_throughball_threat": 2.5, "away_throughball_threat": 2.7, "key_personal_duel": "Johan Manzambi vs Moisés Caicedo", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.011, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.992 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.06, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.06, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 0.773, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Noah Okafor": { "opponents": [ "Willian Pacho", "Joel Ordóñez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ardon Jashari": { "opponents": [ "Pervis Estupiñán", "Keny Arroyo", "Nilson Angulo" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Rubén Vargas": { "opponents": [ "Piero Hincapié", "Nilson Angulo", "Keny Arroyo" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Johan Manzambi": { "opponents": [ "Moisés Caicedo", "Gonzalo Plata" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Denis Zakaria": { "opponents": [ "Moisés Caicedo", "Gonzalo Plata" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Manuel Akanji": { "opponents": [ "Jeremy Arevalo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Bruno Ogbus": { "opponents": [ "Jeremy Arevalo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dan Ndoye": { "opponents": [ "Kendry Páez" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Gregor Kobel": { "opponents": [ "Jeremy Arevalo", "Kendry Páez" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Luca Jaquez": { "opponents": [ "Jeremy Arevalo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Breel Embolo": { "opponents": [ "Willian Pacho", "Piero Hincapié" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Willian Pacho": { "opponents": [ "Noah Okafor" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Joel Ordóñez": { "opponents": [ "Noah Okafor" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pervis Estupiñán": { "opponents": [ "Ardon Jashari" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Piero Hincapié": { "opponents": [ "Rubén Vargas" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Moisés Caicedo": { "opponents": [ "Johan Manzambi", "Denis Zakaria" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nilson Angulo": { "opponents": [ "Rubén Vargas", "Ardon Jashari" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Keny Arroyo": { "opponents": [ "Ardon Jashari", "Rubén Vargas" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gonzalo Plata": { "opponents": [ "Johan Manzambi", "Denis Zakaria" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM + CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jeremy Arevalo": { "opponents": [ "Manuel Akanji", "Bruno Ogbus" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Kendry Páez": { "opponents": [ "Dan Ndoye" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Gonzalo Valle": { "opponents": [ "Breel Embolo", "Noah Okafor" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Johan Manzambi vs Moisés Caicedo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.59, Away: 0.29. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0178, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8678, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1179, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0907, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8967, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9755, "home_midfield_factor": 1.011, "away_midfield_factor": 0.992, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.6455, "away_avg_quality": 0.6502, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0047, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.3441, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.5092, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.1488, "elite_count_gap": -2, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0422, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0022, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0536, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.773, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.654, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.7732, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.6536, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 0.773, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-07-01T13:31:50Z" }