{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Australia", "away_team": "G2", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260703", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "5-3-2", "away_formation": "4-4-2" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1142, "match_resolution": "penalties_if_level", "predicted_winner": "Australia", "tiebreaker": { "applies": true, "method": "penalties_if_level", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.24, "shootout_home_win_probability": 0.5748, "shootout_away_win_probability": 0.4252, "home_advance_probability": 0.6803, "away_advance_probability": 0.3197, "projected_winner": "Australia", "projected_winner_probability": 0.6803, "reason": "Knockout match: a tied scoreline remains possible, then the advancing team is projected through penalties." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1142 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1128 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0977 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0974 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0669 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0669, "0-1": 0.0651, "0-2": 0.0329, "0-3": 0.0109, "0-4": 0.0027, "0-5": 0.0005, "1-0": 0.1128, "1-1": 0.1142, "1-2": 0.0565, "1-3": 0.0188, "1-4": 0.0047, "1-5": 0.0009, "2-0": 0.0977, "2-1": 0.0974, "2-2": 0.0486, "2-3": 0.0162, "2-4": 0.004, "2-5": 0.0008, "3-0": 0.056, "3-1": 0.0558, "3-2": 0.0279, "3-3": 0.0093, "3-4": 0.0023, "4-0": 0.0241, "4-1": 0.024, "4-2": 0.012, "4-3": 0.004, "4-4": 0.001, "5-0": 0.0083, "5-1": 0.0083, "5-2": 0.0041, "5-3": 0.0014, "6-0": 0.0024, "6-1": 0.0024, "6-2": 0.0012, "7-0": 0.0006, "7-1": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.5424, "draw": 0.24, "away_win": 0.2176 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5105, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4895, "btts_yes": 0.5189, "btts_no": 0.4811, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3688, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1792 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 75.7, "MCR": 75.93, "ATR": 73.93, "GK": 92.74 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.8, "MCR": 6.9, "ATR": 6.9, "GK": 6.8 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Australia vs G2. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Nestory Irankunda, G2 F1", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 5-3-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Cristian Volpato vs G2 M1 will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.58, Away: 0.60. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.76, "home_lambda": 1.81, "away_lambda": 1.05 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.5424, "draw": 0.24, "away_win": 0.2176 }, "favorite": "Australia", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5424, "fair_spread": 0.76, "fair_total": 2.86, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Australia", "estimate": 1.81, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "G2", "estimate": 1.05, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5105, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5189, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Australia", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3688, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "G2", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1792, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Alessandro Circati (Australia)", "estimate": 0.4785, "probability": 0.1026, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "G2 F1 (G2)", "estimate": 0.1852, "probability": 0.2845, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Connor Metcalfe (Australia)", "estimate": 0.0737, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "G2 M1 (G2)", "estimate": 0.126, "probability": 0.2047, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.86, "expected_total_shots": 22, "expected_total_passes": 820, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.3, "possession_home_pct": 49.9, "possession_away_pct": 50.1, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Australia", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5424, "script": "Australia is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +0.76 goals and fair total 2.86.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 11 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; G2 must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Australia lead likely shifts toward control and counters; if level after extra time, penalties are live; Australia projects as the advancing side at 68.0% overall advancement probability with 24.0% draw pressure." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "G2 chance creation leans on G2 F1 against Alessandro Circati, Harry Souttar in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Australia: starters carry the main goal usage through Nestory Irankunda; bench watchlist: Jackson Irvine, Nishan Velupillay, Tete Yengi.", "G2: starters carry the main goal usage through G2 F1; bench watchlist: G2 SUB F6, G2 SUB F7, G2 SUB M4.", "Assist usage should flow through G2 M1; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Australia tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 11 total first-half shots, and 1.43 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If G2 is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; if level after extra time, penalties are live; Australia projects as the advancing side at 68.0% overall advancement probability with 24.0% draw pressure." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Australia.", "G2 wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Australia": { "formation": "5-3-2", "players": { "Mathew Ryan": { "player_id": 134029, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 184, "market_value": 1900000, "stats": { "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 1.0205, "rating": 92.7443, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 17, "total_long_balls": 13, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 40, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 0.9812, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 12.756, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13, "expected_saves": 1.27, "high_pressure_saves": 0.48, "shots_faced": 2.7, "opponent_faced": "G2 F1, G2 F2", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083710, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 17, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 7, "goals_prevented": 0.0496 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083676, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Levante UD", "away_team": "Mallorca", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Mallorca", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0014, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 18, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 1.121 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083613, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Levante UD", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0027, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 18, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 1.1419 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 255, "combined_rank_score": 157.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 158.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2417, "sofascore_appearances": 36.0, "fifa_rank": 156.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.7443, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Mathew Ryan", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Luis Sinisterra", "ranking": 250 }, { "player_name": "Min Junyeong", "ranking": 251 }, { "player_name": "Yann Sommer", "ranking": 252 }, { "player_name": "Nikolai Ivanov", "ranking": 253 }, { "player_name": "Francisco Trincão", "ranking": 254 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Erick Pulga", "ranking": 256 }, { "player_name": "Patrik Schick", "ranking": 257 }, { "player_name": "Dávid Hancko", "ranking": 258 }, { "player_name": "Gerson", "ranking": 259 }, { "player_name": "Christian Eriksen", "ranking": 260 } ] } } }, "Alessandro Circati": { "player_id": 1155423, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 39, "height": 190, "market_value": 10800000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 78.1765, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 33, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 25, "accurate_own_half_passes": 22, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 60, "possession_lost": 12.4477, "dispossessed": 1.3427, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0184, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4785, "expected_assists": 0.0101, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 31, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.662, "opponent_faced": "G2 M1", "pressing_zone": "LM vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LM vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1026, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186891, "match_date": "2026-06-26", "home_team": "Paraguay", "away_team": "Australia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Australia", "opponent": "Paraguay", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0109, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 60, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186878, "match_date": "2026-06-19", "home_team": "USA", "away_team": "Australia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Australia", "opponent": "USA", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0254, "expected_assists": 0.0036, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 21, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 11, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186874, "match_date": "2026-06-14", "home_team": "Australia", "away_team": "Türkiye", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Australia", "opponent": "Türkiye", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.507, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 21, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 13980074, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Parma", "away_team": "Sassuolo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Parma", "opponent": "Sassuolo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0057, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Serie A", "league_id": "23", "league_slug": "serie-a", "league_country": "Italy", "season_id": "76457", "season_name": "Serie A 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13980069, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Como", "away_team": "Parma", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Parma", "opponent": "Como", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Serie A", "league_id": "23", "league_slug": "serie-a", "league_country": "Italy", "season_id": "76457", "season_name": "Serie A 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13980062, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Parma", "away_team": "AS Roma", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Parma", "opponent": "AS Roma", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0084, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 29, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Serie A", "league_id": "23", "league_slug": "serie-a", "league_country": "Italy", "season_id": "76457", "season_name": "Serie A 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 18222, "combined_rank_score": 2605.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 5064.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.1765, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Alessandro Circati", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Tomás Molina", "ranking": 18217 }, { "player_name": "Erik Sviatchenko", "ranking": 18218 }, { "player_name": "Antonios Papadopoulos", "ranking": 18219 }, { "player_name": "Gary Medel", "ranking": 18220 }, { "player_name": "Jonny", "ranking": 18221 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Byron Palacios", "ranking": 18223 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Heuer Fernandes", "ranking": 18224 }, { "player_name": "Adamo Nagalo", "ranking": 18225 }, { "player_name": "Janner Corozo", "ranking": 18226 }, { "player_name": "José Florentín", "ranking": 18227 } ] } } }, "Jordan Bos": { "player_id": 1144138, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 180, "market_value": 7400000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 75.5801, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 24, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 14, "accurate_own_half_passes": 13, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 46, "possession_lost": 8.3087, "dispossessed": 0.9974, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 3, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0324, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.288, "expected_assists": 0.0399, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.2095, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 68, "progressive_carries": 3, "key_pass": 1, "opponent_faced": "G2 D4", "matchup_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0601, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186891, "match_date": "2026-06-26", "home_team": "Paraguay", "away_team": "Australia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Australia", "opponent": "Paraguay", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1694, "expected_assists": 0.1452, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, 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"shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0481, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "G2 SUB F6", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } }, "G2 SUB F7": { "player_id": 4335456, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 0, "height": 180, "market_value": 0, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.2763, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0481, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "G2 SUB F7", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } } }, "substitutes": { "G2 SUB F6": { "player_id": 4335455, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 0, "height": 180, "market_value": 0, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.2763, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0481, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "G2 SUB F6", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } }, "G2 SUB F7": { "player_id": 4335456, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 0, "height": 180, "market_value": 0, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.2763, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0481, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "G2 SUB F7", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } }, "G2 SUB M4": { "player_id": 4335453, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 0, "height": 180, "market_value": 0, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "expected_goals": 0.0252, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 1.9775, "dispossessed": 0.7, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0146, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0132, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 18, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "G2 SUB M4", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.05, "expected_assists": 0.92, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 475, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 18, "avg_rating": 6.85, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Jordan Bos", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 7400000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.491, "defenders": [ "G2 D4" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.424, "xg_contribution": 0.1005, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "G2 D4", "role": "RB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.576 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jordan Bos (LWB) is evenly matched against G2 D4 in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.100 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Lucas Herrington", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 1600000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.42, "defenders": [ "G2 D1" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.416, "xg_contribution": 0.0714, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "G2 D1", "role": "LB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.584 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lucas Herrington (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against G2 D1 in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.071 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Cristian Volpato", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 9700000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.519, "defenders": [ "G2 M2" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.485, "xg_contribution": 0.1253, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "G2 M2", "role": "CM", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.515 } ], "duel_analysis": "Cristian Volpato (CM) is evenly matched against G2 M2 in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Projected xG contribution: 0.125 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Connor Metcalfe", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1400000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.417, "defenders": [ "G2 M2" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.403, "xg_contribution": 0.0759, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "G2 M2", "role": "CM", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.597 } ], "duel_analysis": "Connor Metcalfe (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against G2 M2 in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.076 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Nestory Irankunda", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 6400000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.479, "defenders": [ "G2 D2", "G2 D3" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.211, "xg_contribution": 0.114, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "G2 D2", "role": "CB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.789 }, { "player": "G2 D3", "role": "CB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.789 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nestory Irankunda (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against G2 D2 and G2 D3 in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. Projected xG contribution: 0.114 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Mohamed Touré", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 4200000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.452, "defenders": [ "G2 D2", "G2 D3" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.231, "xg_contribution": 0.0881, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "G2 D2", "role": "CB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769 }, { "player": "G2 D3", "role": "CB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.769 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mohamed Touré (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against G2 D2 and G2 D3 in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. Projected xG contribution: 0.088 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "G2 M1", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Alessandro Circati" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.532, "duel_zone": "LM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.338, "xg_contribution": 0.071, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alessandro Circati", "role": "CB", "market_value": 10800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.662 } ], "duel_analysis": "G2 M1 (LM) faces tough defensive resistance against Alessandro Circati in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. Projected xG contribution: 0.071 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "G2 M2", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Aiden O'Neill" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.436, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.459, "xg_contribution": 0.0854, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aiden O'Neill", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 2900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.541 } ], "duel_analysis": "G2 M2 (CM) is evenly matched against Aiden O'Neill in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.085 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "G2 M3", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Aiden O'Neill" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.436, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.459, "xg_contribution": 0.0854, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aiden O'Neill", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 2900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.541 } ], "duel_analysis": "G2 M3 (CM) is evenly matched against Aiden O'Neill in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.085 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "G2 M4", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Alessandro Circati" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.532, "duel_zone": "RM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.338, "xg_contribution": 0.071, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alessandro Circati", "role": "CB", "market_value": 10800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.662 } ], "duel_analysis": "G2 M4 (RM) faces tough defensive resistance against Alessandro Circati in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. Projected xG contribution: 0.071 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "G2 F1", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Alessandro Circati", "Harry Souttar" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.488, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1457, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alessandro Circati", "role": "CB", "market_value": 10800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Harry Souttar", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "G2 F1 (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Alessandro Circati and Harry Souttar in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.146 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "G2 F2", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Alessandro Circati", "Harry Souttar" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.488, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1457, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alessandro Circati", "role": "CB", "market_value": 10800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Harry Souttar", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "G2 F2 (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Alessandro Circati and Harry Souttar in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.146 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.458, "away_midfield_power": 0.462, "home_creative_power": 0.389, "away_creative_power": 0.503, "home_defensive_power": 0.389, "away_defensive_power": 0.393, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.497, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Cristian Volpato", "Aiden O'Neill", "Connor Metcalfe" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "G2 M1", "G2 M2", "G2 M3", "G2 M4" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.1, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 3.8, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.5, "home_throughball_threat": 1.8, "away_throughball_threat": 2.1, "key_personal_duel": "Cristian Volpato vs G2 M1", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.999, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.01 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "5-3-2", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 5-3-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.81, "away_lambda": 1.05, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Jordan Bos": { "opponents": [ "G2 D4" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Lucas Herrington": { "opponents": [ "G2 D1" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Cristian Volpato": { "opponents": [ "G2 M2", "G2 M3" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Connor Metcalfe": { "opponents": [ "G2 M2", "G2 M1" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nestory Irankunda": { "opponents": [ "G2 D2", "G2 D3" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Mohamed Touré": { "opponents": [ "G2 D2", "G2 D3" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Alessandro Circati": { "opponents": [ "G2 M1", "G2 M4", "G2 F1", "G2 F2" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Aiden O'Neill": { "opponents": [ "G2 M2", "G2 M3", "G2 M4" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Harry Souttar": { "opponents": [ "G2 F1", "G2 F2" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mathew Ryan": { "opponents": [ "G2 F1", "G2 F2" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Cameron Burgess": { "opponents": [ "G2 F1" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "G2 D4": { "opponents": [ "Jordan Bos" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "G2 D1": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Herrington" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "G2 M2": { "opponents": [ "Cristian Volpato", "Connor Metcalfe", "Aiden O'Neill" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "G2 D2": { "opponents": [ "Nestory Irankunda", "Mohamed Touré" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "G2 D3": { "opponents": [ "Nestory Irankunda", "Mohamed Touré" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "G2 M1": { "opponents": [ "Alessandro Circati", "Connor Metcalfe" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "G2 M3": { "opponents": [ "Aiden O'Neill", "Cristian Volpato" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "G2 M4": { "opponents": [ "Alessandro Circati", "Aiden O'Neill" ], "primary_zone": "RM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "G2 F1": { "opponents": [ "Alessandro Circati", "Harry Souttar" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "G2 F2": { "opponents": [ "Alessandro Circati", "Harry Souttar" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "G2 G1": { "opponents": [ "Nestory Irankunda", "Mohamed Touré" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Cristian Volpato vs G2 M1 will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.58, Away: 0.60. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0005, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0163, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9913, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9881, "home_midfield_factor": 0.999, "away_midfield_factor": 1.01, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4611, "away_avg_quality": 0.4374, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0237, "squad_value_gap_log": 3.922, "top5_value_gap_log": 3.6763, "attack_value_gap_log": 3.2426, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.3371, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.7416, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.4719, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0088, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.106, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.3371, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.0893, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9763, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.662, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 0.756, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.05, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.81, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.738, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.6618, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.756, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 1.81, "final_away_lambda": 1.05 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-30T04:36:31Z" }