{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Colombia", "away_team": "Ghana", "tournament": "World Championship", "date": "20260703", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-3-3" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1381, "match_resolution": "penalties_if_level", "predicted_winner": "Colombia", "tiebreaker": { "applies": true, "method": "penalties_if_level", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.3085, "shootout_home_win_probability": 0.5113, "shootout_away_win_probability": 0.4887, "penalty_home_goals": 6, "penalty_away_goals": 5, "penalty_score": "6-5", "penalty_winner": "Colombia", "penalty_winner_goals": 6, "penalty_loser_goals": 5, "penalty_result": "Colombia wins 6-5 on penalties", "home_advance_probability": 0.5258, "away_advance_probability": 0.4742, "projected_winner": "Colombia", "projected_winner_probability": 0.5258, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Knockout match: a tied scoreline remains possible, then the advancing team is projected through penalties." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1381 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1364 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1335 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1268 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0735 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1335, "0-1": 0.1268, "0-2": 0.0621, "0-3": 0.02, "0-4": 0.0049, "0-5": 0.0009, "1-0": 0.1381, "1-1": 0.1364, "1-2": 0.0654, "1-3": 0.0211, "1-4": 0.0051, "1-5": 0.001, "2-0": 0.0735, "2-1": 0.0712, "2-2": 0.0345, "2-3": 0.0111, "2-4": 0.0027, "2-5": 0.0005, "3-0": 0.0258, "3-1": 0.025, "3-2": 0.0121, "3-3": 0.0039, "3-4": 0.0009, "4-0": 0.0068, "4-1": 0.0066, "4-2": 0.0032, "4-3": 0.001, "5-0": 0.0014, "5-1": 0.0014, "5-2": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.368, "draw": 0.3085, "away_win": 0.3235 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3297, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6703, "btts_yes": 0.4057, "btts_no": 0.5943, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3795, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3484 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 85.73, "MCR": 86.89, "ATR": 84.22, "GK": 88.7 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 64.19, "MCR": 81.45, "ATR": 78.46, "GK": 85.58 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Colombia vs Ghana. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Jhon Arias", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Luis Díaz vs Antoine Semenyo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.45, Away: 0.72. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest." }, "confidence": 0.69, "home_lambda": 1.11, "away_lambda": 1.02 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.368, "draw": 0.3085, "away_win": 0.3235 }, "favorite": "Colombia", "favorite_win_probability": 0.368, "fair_spread": 0.09, "fair_total": 2.13, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Colombia", "estimate": 1.11, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Ghana", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3297, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4057, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Colombia", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3795, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Ghana", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3484, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Luis Díaz (Colombia)", "estimate": 0.2143, "probability": 0.1807, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Derrick Luckassen (Ghana)", "estimate": 0.5481, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Luis Díaz (Colombia)", "estimate": 0.4392, "probability": 0.3361, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Kamaldeen Sulemana (Ghana)", "estimate": 0.1191, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.13, "expected_total_shots": 30, "expected_total_passes": 798, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.9, "possession_home_pct": 50.0, "possession_away_pct": 50.0, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Colombia", "favorite_win_probability": 0.368, "script": "Colombia is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.09 goals and fair total 2.13.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 15 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Ghana must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Colombia lead likely shifts toward control and counters; if level after extra time, penalties are live; Colombia projects as the advancing side at 52.6% overall advancement probability with 30.9% draw pressure." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Colombia chance creation leans on Luis Javier Suárez against Marvin Senaya in Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Colombia: starters carry the main goal usage through Jhon Arias; bench watchlist: Jhon Durán, Richard Ríos, Cucho Hernández.", "Ghana: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Abdul Fatawu Issahaku, Brandon Thomas-Asante, Augustine Boakye.", "Assist usage should flow through Luis Díaz; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Colombia tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 15 total first-half shots, and 1.06 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Ghana is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; if level after extra time, penalties are live; Colombia projects as the advancing side at 52.6% overall advancement probability with 30.9% draw pressure." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Colombia.", "Ghana wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Colombia": { "formation": "4-3-3", "players": { "Luis Díaz": { "player_id": 883537, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 178, "market_value": 76000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.4392, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2143, "rating": 92.8209, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 38, "ball_recovery": 4, "duels_won": 7, "total_shots": 3, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 35, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 66, "possession_lost": 13.9736, "dispossessed": 2.5275, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 6, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 3, "goal_rate": 1.1134, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.501, "ball_carries": 28, "total_progression": 147, "progressive_carries": 6, "opponent_faced": "Caleb Yirenkyi", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1807, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.3361, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186696, "match_date": "2026-06-27", "home_team": "Colombia", "away_team": "Portugal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Colombia", "opponent": "Portugal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2509, "expected_assists": 0.0975, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 39, "key_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186713, "match_date": "2026-06-24", "home_team": "Colombia", "away_team": "DR Congo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Colombia", "opponent": "DR Congo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2908, "expected_assists": 0.0969, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186722, "match_date": "2026-06-18", "home_team": "Uzbekistan", "away_team": "Colombia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Colombia", "opponent": "Uzbekistan", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 8.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.3605, "expected_assists": 0.6216, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14065556, "match_date": "2026-05-16", "home_team": "FC Bayern München", "away_team": "1. FC Köln", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Bayern München", "opponent": "1. FC Köln", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.6311, "expected_assists": 0.6244, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 44, "key_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065251, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "VfL Wolfsburg", "away_team": "FC Bayern München", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Bayern München", "opponent": "VfL Wolfsburg", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1463, "expected_assists": 0.0682, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 19, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632634, "match_date": "2026-05-06", "home_team": "FC Bayern München", "away_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Bayern München", "opponent": "Paris Saint-Germain", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1912, "expected_assists": 0.7141, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 33, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065232, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "FC Bayern München", "away_team": "1. FC Heidenheim", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Bayern München", "opponent": "1. FC Heidenheim", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1545, "expected_assists": 0.0393, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632632, "match_date": "2026-04-28", "home_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "away_team": "FC Bayern München", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Bayern München", "opponent": "Paris Saint-Germain", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1943, "expected_assists": 0.7257, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 37, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632088, "match_date": "2026-04-15", "home_team": "FC Bayern München", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Bayern München", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2002, "expected_assists": 0.1986, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 46, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632084, "match_date": "2026-04-07", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "FC Bayern München", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Bayern München", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7823, "expected_assists": 0.0634, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 36, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 132, "combined_rank_score": 113.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 95.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.45, "sofascore_appearances": 12.0, "fifa_rank": 132.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.8209, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Luis Díaz", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Denzel Dumfries", "ranking": 127 }, { "player_name": "Tasos Bakasetas", "ranking": 128 }, { "player_name": "Hannibal Mejbri", "ranking": 129 }, { "player_name": "Sang-Min Koo", "ranking": 130 }, { "player_name": "Kacper Potulski", "ranking": 131 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Federico Dimarco", "ranking": 133 }, { "player_name": "Alexis Mac Allister", "ranking": 134 }, { "player_name": "Bremer", "ranking": 135 }, { "player_name": "Cody Gakpo", "ranking": 136 }, { "player_name": "Samuel Lino", "ranking": 137 } ] } } }, "Luis Javier Suárez": { "player_id": 914213, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 25, "height": 185, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2019, "goal_rate": 0.0018, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1995, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 84.2224, "minutes": 80, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 14, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 32, "possession_lost": 9.0797, "dispossessed": 1.6614, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.5714, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 28, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.2, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.619, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Marvin Senaya", "opponent_faced": "Marvin Senaya", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1307, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0617, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186696, "match_date": "2026-06-27", "home_team": "Colombia", "away_team": "Portugal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Colombia", "opponent": "Portugal", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3356, "expected_assists": 0.0048, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": 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"position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 15, "height": 179, "market_value": 4300000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "rating": 79.5191, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 9, "possession_lost": 2.028, "dispossessed": 1.3115, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 2, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.502, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.04, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.501, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186624, "match_date": "2026-06-27", "home_team": "Croatia", "away_team": "Ghana", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ghana", "opponent": "Croatia", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0024, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186687, "match_date": "2026-06-17", "home_team": "Ghana", "away_team": "Panama", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ghana", "opponent": "Panama", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0088, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14061906, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Lille", "away_team": "Auxerre", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Auxerre", "opponent": "Lille", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14064519, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Auxerre", "away_team": "Nice", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Auxerre", "opponent": "Nice", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0222, "expected_assists": 0.0159, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 29, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14167991, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Auxerre", "away_team": "Angers", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Auxerre", "opponent": "Angers", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0358, "expected_assists": 0.0105, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 35, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 17219, "combined_rank_score": 1815.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 3402.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.5191, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Elisha Owusu", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Azor Matusiwa", "ranking": 17214 }, { "player_name": "Juanmi", "ranking": 17215 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Maldini", "ranking": 17216 }, { "player_name": "Stefano Denswil", "ranking": 17217 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Bîrligea", "ranking": 17218 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Matthieu Epolo", "ranking": 17220 }, { "player_name": "Salis Abdul Samed", "ranking": 17221 }, { "player_name": "Marius Mouandilmadji", "ranking": 17222 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Höler", "ranking": 17223 }, { "player_name": "Sven Ulreich", "ranking": 17224 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.36, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_passes": 344, "interceptions": 10, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 75.01, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.1 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Luis Javier Suárez", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Marvin Senaya" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.439, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.619, "xg_contribution": 0.238, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marvin Senaya", "role": "RB", "market_value": 3100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.381 } ], "duel_analysis": "Luis Javier Suárez (LW) has a clear attacking advantage against Marvin Senaya in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 62%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €3M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.238 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "James Rodríguez", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 1500000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.419, "defenders": [ "Gideon Mensah" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.446, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.48, "xg_contribution": 0.0762, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 1.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gideon Mensah", "role": "LB", "market_value": 3700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.52 } ], "duel_analysis": "James Rodríguez (RW) is evenly matched against Gideon Mensah in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Projected xG contribution: 0.076 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jefferson Lerma", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 5500000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.468, "defenders": [ "Derrick Luckassen", "Jonas Adjei Adjetey" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.446, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0267, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Derrick Luckassen", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jonas Adjei Adjetey", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jefferson Lerma (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Derrick Luckassen and Jonas Adjei Adjetey in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.027 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Daniel Muñoz", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Antoine Semenyo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.886, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.29, "xg_contribution": 0.0477, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Antoine Semenyo", "role": "CM", "market_value": 85000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.71 } ], "duel_analysis": "Daniel Muñoz (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Antoine Semenyo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€23M vs €85M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.048 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Jhon Arias", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 16100000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.591, "defenders": [ "Antoine Semenyo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.886, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.227, "xg_contribution": 0.0577, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Antoine Semenyo", "role": "CM", "market_value": 85000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.5, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.773 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jhon Arias (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Antoine Semenyo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 23%. The quality gap is significant (€16M vs €85M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.058 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Kamaldeen Sulemana", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 16500000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.595, "defenders": [ "Gustavo Puerta" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.531, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.521, "xg_contribution": 0.0903, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gustavo Puerta", "role": "RB", "market_value": 10700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.479 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kamaldeen Sulemana (LW) is slightly favored against Gustavo Puerta in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. Projected xG contribution: 0.090 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Kwasi Sibo", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 1500000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.419, "defenders": [ "Davinson Sánchez" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.595, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.381, "xg_contribution": 0.1755, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 1.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Davinson Sánchez", "role": "LB", "market_value": 16500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.619 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kwasi Sibo (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Davinson Sánchez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.176 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Jordan Ayew", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 1100000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.414, "defenders": [ "Johan Mojica", "Jhon Lucumí" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.539, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1932, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Johan Mojica", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jhon Lucumí", "role": "CB", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jordan Ayew (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Johan Mojica and Jhon Lucumí in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.193 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Thomas Partey", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1900000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.424, "defenders": [ "Jhon Arias" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.591, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.385, "xg_contribution": 0.0479, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 1, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jhon Arias", "role": "CM", "market_value": 16100000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.615 } ], "duel_analysis": "Thomas Partey (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Jhon Arias in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.048 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Antoine Semenyo", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 85000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.886, "defenders": [ "Jhon Arias" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.591, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.613, "xg_contribution": 0.2126, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jhon Arias", "role": "CM", "market_value": 16100000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.387 } ], "duel_analysis": "Antoine Semenyo (CM) has a clear attacking advantage against Jhon Arias in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 61%. The quality gap is significant (€85M vs €16M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.213 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.666, "away_midfield_power": 0.589, "home_creative_power": 0.6, "away_creative_power": 0.554, "home_defensive_power": 0.451, "away_defensive_power": 0.551, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.531, "home_midfield_count": 6, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Luis Díaz", "Jhon Arias", "Jefferson Lerma", "James Rodríguez", "Gustavo Puerta", "Daniel Muñoz" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Antoine Semenyo", "Caleb Yirenkyi", "Kwasi Sibo", "Thomas Partey" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.0, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.0, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.8, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.1, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.1, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.8, "home_throughball_threat": 2.4, "away_throughball_threat": 2.3, "key_personal_duel": "Luis Díaz vs Antoine Semenyo", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.01, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.0 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.11, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Luis Javier Suárez": { "opponents": [ "Marvin Senaya" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "James Rodríguez": { "opponents": [ "Gideon Mensah", "Thomas Partey" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jefferson Lerma": { "opponents": [ "Derrick Luckassen", "Jonas Adjei Adjetey", "Antoine Semenyo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Daniel Muñoz": { "opponents": [ "Antoine Semenyo", "Thomas Partey" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jhon Arias": { "opponents": [ "Antoine Semenyo", "Thomas Partey" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gustavo Puerta": { "opponents": [ "Kamaldeen Sulemana", "Kwasi Sibo" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Davinson Sánchez": { "opponents": [ "Kwasi Sibo" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Johan Mojica": { "opponents": [ "Jordan Ayew" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jhon Lucumí": { "opponents": [ "Jordan Ayew" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Luis Díaz": { "opponents": [ "Caleb Yirenkyi" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Camilo Vargas": { "opponents": [ "Kamaldeen Sulemana", "Jordan Ayew" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Marvin Senaya": { "opponents": [ "Luis Javier Suárez" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Gideon Mensah": { "opponents": [ "James Rodríguez" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Derrick Luckassen": { "opponents": [ "Jefferson Lerma" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jonas Adjei Adjetey": { "opponents": [ "Jefferson Lerma" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Antoine Semenyo": { "opponents": [ "Daniel Muñoz", "Jhon Arias", "Jefferson Lerma" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Kamaldeen Sulemana": { "opponents": [ "Gustavo Puerta" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Kwasi Sibo": { "opponents": [ "Davinson Sánchez", "Gustavo Puerta" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jordan Ayew": { "opponents": [ "Johan Mojica", "Jhon Lucumí" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Thomas Partey": { "opponents": [ "Jhon Arias", "Daniel Muñoz", "James Rodríguez" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Caleb Yirenkyi": { "opponents": [ "Luis Díaz" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Benjamin Asare": { "opponents": [ "Luis Javier Suárez", "Luis Díaz" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Luis Díaz vs Antoine Semenyo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.45, Away: 0.72. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0255, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0236, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0757, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.067, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.004, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9805, "home_midfield_factor": 1.01, "away_midfield_factor": 1.0, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5913, "away_avg_quality": 0.5041, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0872, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.4045, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.2848, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.2952, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1297, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.2854, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1816, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0974, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0061, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.11, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.792, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.1104, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.7921, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 1.11, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-07-03T13:31:25Z" }