{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Paraguay", "away_team": "France", "tournament": "World Championship", "date": "20260704", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-3-1-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-2", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 2, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1275, "match_resolution": "penalties_if_level", "predicted_winner": "France", "tiebreaker": { "applies": true, "method": "penalties_if_level", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.1196, "shootout_home_win_probability": 0.38, "shootout_away_win_probability": 0.62, "penalty_home_goals": 2, "penalty_away_goals": 4, "penalty_score": "2-4", "penalty_winner": "France", "penalty_winner_goals": 4, "penalty_loser_goals": 2, "penalty_result": "France wins 4-2 on penalties", "home_advance_probability": 0.1023, "away_advance_probability": 0.8977, "projected_winner": "France", "projected_winner_probability": 0.8977, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Knockout match: a tied scoreline remains possible, then the advancing team is projected through penalties." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.1275 }, { "score": "0-3", "probability": 0.1193 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0906 }, { "score": "0-4", "probability": 0.0838 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0796 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0325, "0-1": 0.0906, "0-2": 0.1275, "0-3": 0.1193, "0-4": 0.0838, "0-5": 0.0471, "0-6": 0.022, "0-7": 0.0088, "0-8": 0.0031, "0-9": 0.001, "1-0": 0.02, "1-1": 0.0568, "1-2": 0.0796, "1-3": 0.0745, "1-4": 0.0523, "1-5": 0.0294, "1-6": 0.0137, "1-7": 0.0055, "1-8": 0.0019, "1-9": 0.0006, "2-0": 0.0063, "2-1": 0.0177, "2-2": 0.0248, "2-3": 0.0232, "2-4": 0.0163, "2-5": 0.0092, "2-6": 0.0043, "2-7": 0.0017, "2-8": 0.0006, "3-0": 0.0013, "3-1": 0.0037, "3-2": 0.0052, "3-3": 0.0048, "3-4": 0.0034, "3-5": 0.0019, "3-6": 0.0009, "4-1": 0.0006, "4-2": 0.0008, "4-3": 0.0008, "4-4": 0.0005 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.0569, "draw": 0.1196, "away_win": 0.8235 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.6662, "under_2_5_goals": 0.3338, "btts_yes": 0.4364, "btts_no": 0.5636, "home_clean_sheet": 0.0604, "away_clean_sheet": 0.5357 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 86.0, "MCR": 81.24, "ATR": 6.5, "GK": 68.82 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 92.27, "MCR": 90.38, "ATR": 96.09, "GK": 94.14 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Paraguay vs France. Most likely scoreline: 0-2. Lambdas derived from 3 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Michael Olise, Kylian Mbappé", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-3-1-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Diego Gómez vs Michael Olise will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.49, Away: 0.96. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.88, "home_lambda": 0.657, "away_lambda": 2.956 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.0569, "draw": 0.1196, "away_win": 0.8235 }, "favorite": "France", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8235, "fair_spread": -2.299, "fair_total": 3.613, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Paraguay", "estimate": 0.657, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "France", "estimate": 2.956, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.6662, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4364, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Paraguay", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0604, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "France", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5357, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Julio Enciso (Paraguay)", "estimate": 0.1617, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Kylian Mbappé (France)", "estimate": 1.0603, "probability": 0.5672, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Julio Enciso (Paraguay)", "estimate": 0.0493, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Michael Olise (France)", "estimate": 0.5218, "probability": 0.3593, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.613, "expected_total_shots": 26, "expected_total_passes": 805, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.4, "possession_home_pct": 47.3, "possession_away_pct": 52.7, "notes": "France projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "France", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8235, "script": "France is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread -2.30 goals and fair total 3.61.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 13 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Paraguay must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A France lead likely shifts toward control and counters; if level after extra time, penalties are live; France projects as the advancing side at 89.8% overall advancement probability with 12.0% draw pressure." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "France chance creation leans on Kylian Mbappé against José Canale, Gustavo Gómez in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; France projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Paraguay: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Mauricio, Ramón Sosa, Isidro Pitta.", "France: starters carry the main goal usage through Michael Olise, Kylian Mbappé; bench watchlist: Désiré Doué, Marcus Thuram.", "Assist usage should flow through Michael Olise; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: France tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 13 total first-half shots, and 1.81 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Paraguay is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; if level after extra time, penalties are live; France projects as the advancing side at 89.8% overall advancement probability with 12.0% draw pressure." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for France.", "Paraguay wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Paraguay": { "formation": "4-3-1-2", "players": { "Miguel Almirón": { "player_id": 333373, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 174, "market_value": 6800000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0072, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "rating": 82.5439, "minutes": 76, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 16, "ball_recovery": 4, "duels_won": 4, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 32, "possession_lost": 7.4047, "dispossessed": 1.1645, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0896, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "William Saliba, Dayot Upamecano", "opponent_faced": "William Saliba, Dayot Upamecano", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 12813014, "match_date": "2026-06-29 20:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": 16, "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": 58210, "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026", "home_team": "Germany", "away_team": "Paraguay", "home_score_current": 4.0, "away_score_current": 5.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 120, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "AP", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Paraguay", "opponent": "Germany", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 15186879, "match_date": "2026-06-20", "home_team": "Türkiye", "away_team": "Paraguay", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Paraguay", "opponent": "Türkiye", "stats": { "minutes": 48, "rating": 5.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186873, "match_date": "2026-06-13", "home_team": "USA", "away_team": "Paraguay", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Paraguay", "opponent": "USA", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0697, "expected_assists": 0.016, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15171588, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Columbus Crew", "away_team": "Atlanta United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlanta United", "opponent": "Columbus Crew", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0342, "expected_assists": 0.0076, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 10, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "MLS", "league_id": "242", "league_slug": "mls", "league_country": "USA", "season_id": "86668", "season_name": "MLS 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14169216, "match_date": "2025-09-04", "home_team": "Paraguay", "away_team": "Ecuador", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Paraguay", "opponent": "Ecuador", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 21, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 13856229, "match_date": "2025-06-11", "home_team": "Brazil", "away_team": "Paraguay", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Paraguay", "opponent": "Brazil", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 14, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 13856220, "match_date": "2025-06-05", "home_team": "Paraguay", "away_team": "Uruguay", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Paraguay", "opponent": "Uruguay", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.6, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 13129492, "match_date": "2025-03-26", "home_team": "Colombia", "away_team": "Paraguay", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Paraguay", "opponent": "Colombia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 1, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 13129490, "match_date": "2025-03-20", "home_team": "Paraguay", "away_team": "Chile", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Paraguay", "opponent": "Chile", "stats": { "minutes": 86, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 11886395, "match_date": "2024-07-03", "home_team": "Costa Rica", "away_team": "Paraguay", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Paraguay", "opponent": "Costa Rica", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 16431, "combined_rank_score": 1218.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 801.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.5667, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 1635.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.5439, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Miguel Almirón", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Promise David", "ranking": 16426 }, { "player_name": "Aritz Elustondo", "ranking": 16427 }, { "player_name": "Marcel Hartel", "ranking": 16428 }, { "player_name": "Lazaros Rota", "ranking": 16429 }, { "player_name": "Deiver Machado", "ranking": 16430 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jordan Torunarigha", "ranking": 16432 }, { "player_name": "Ron-Robert Zieler", "ranking": 16433 }, { "player_name": "Jamie Leweling", "ranking": 16434 }, { "player_name": "André Gomes", "ranking": 16435 }, { "player_name": "Emanuel Emegha", "ranking": 16436 } ] } } }, "Julio Enciso": { "player_id": 973556, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 173, "market_value": 24000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0493, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1617, "rating": 80.2262, "minutes": 76, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 20, "ball_recovery": 4, "duels_won": 7, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 51, "possession_lost": 15.7584, "dispossessed": 2.6264, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 3, "goal_rate": 1.0506, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 3, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.5148, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 80, "progressive_carries": 3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.419, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Adrien Rabiot", "opponent_faced": "Adrien Rabiot", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 12813014, "match_date": "2026-06-29 20:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": 16, "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": 58210, "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026", "home_team": "Germany", "away_team": "Paraguay", "home_score_current": 4.0, "away_score_current": 5.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 120, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "AP", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Paraguay", "opponent": "Germany", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 15186891, "match_date": "2026-06-26", "home_team": "Paraguay", "away_team": "Australia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Paraguay", "opponent": "Australia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0671, "expected_assists": 0.0138, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 15, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186879, "match_date": "2026-06-20", "home_team": "Türkiye", "away_team": "Paraguay", "team_side": "away", 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"total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632087, "match_date": "2026-04-14", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 52, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.026, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632083, "match_date": "2026-04-08", "home_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "opponent": "Liverpool FC", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4401, "expected_assists": 0.1093, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 36, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 105, "combined_rank_score": 101.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 80.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.4923, "sofascore_appearances": 13.0, "fifa_rank": 123.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.4607, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Désiré Doué", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Veljko Milosavljević", "ranking": 100 }, { "player_name": "Jaylan Hankins", "ranking": 101 }, { "player_name": "Granit Xhaka", "ranking": 102 }, { "player_name": "Alexis Serna", "ranking": 103 }, { "player_name": "Matías Palavecino", "ranking": 104 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Alisson", "ranking": 106 }, { "player_name": "Vitinha", "ranking": 107 }, { "player_name": "Bruno Henrique", "ranking": 108 }, { "player_name": "Gastón Ávila", "ranking": 109 }, { "player_name": "Allan", "ranking": 110 } ] } } }, "Marcus Thuram": { "player_id": 791702, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 192, "market_value": 52000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.002, "goal_rate": 0.0001, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0399, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 92.3695, "minutes": 27, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 0.328, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 3, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.63, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.85, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.802, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186769, "match_date": "2026-06-22", "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Iraq", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "France", "opponent": "Iraq", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 13980090, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Lazio", "away_team": "Inter", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Inter", "opponent": "Lazio", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2651, "expected_assists": 0.2482, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Serie A", "league_id": "23", "league_slug": "serie-a", "league_country": "Italy", "season_id": "76457", "season_name": "Serie A 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 94, "combined_rank_score": 90.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 127.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.3695, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Marcus Thuram", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "José Sanhueza", "ranking": 89 }, { "player_name": "Fedor Lapoukhov", "ranking": 90 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Frizzo", "ranking": 91 }, { "player_name": "Florentino Luís", "ranking": 92 }, { "player_name": "Ramón Sosa", "ranking": 93 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Valentin Atangana Edoa", "ranking": 95 }, { "player_name": "Viktor Gyökeres", "ranking": 96 }, { "player_name": "David Raya", "ranking": 97 }, { "player_name": "Jean Meneses", "ranking": 98 }, { "player_name": "Vasilije Kostov", "ranking": 99 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 2.96, "expected_assists": 1.43, "total_shots": 15, "shots_on_target": 9, "total_passes": 518, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 15, "avg_rating": 92.97, "possession_estimated_pct": 52.7, "pressing_actions_per_90": 9.3 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Miguel Almirón", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 6800000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.484, "defenders": [ "William Saliba", "Dayot Upamecano" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.877, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2123, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "William Saliba", "role": "CB", "market_value": 94000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Dayot Upamecano", "role": "CB", "market_value": 65000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Miguel Almirón (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against William Saliba and Dayot Upamecano in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€7M vs €80M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.212 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Damián Bobadilla", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 6400000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.479, "defenders": [ "Adrien Rabiot", "Manu Koné" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.708, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1105, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrien Rabiot", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 17300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Manu Koné", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 47000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Damián Bobadilla (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Adrien Rabiot and Manu Koné in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€6M vs €32M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.111 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Julio Enciso", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Adrien Rabiot" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.604, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.419, "xg_contribution": 0.1634, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrien Rabiot", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 17300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.581 } ], "duel_analysis": "Julio Enciso (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Adrien Rabiot in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.163 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Michael Olise", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 144000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.899, "defenders": [ "Juan Cáceres" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.456, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.707, "xg_contribution": 0.2444, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Juan Cáceres", "role": "RB", "market_value": 4500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.293 } ], "duel_analysis": "Michael Olise (LW) has a clear attacking advantage against Juan Cáceres in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 71%. The quality gap is significant (€144M vs €4M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.244 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Kylian Mbappé", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 191000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "José Canale", "Gustavo Gómez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.434, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.386, "xg_contribution": 0.5326, "shots_in_zone": 2.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "José Canale", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.614 }, { "player": "Gustavo Gómez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.614 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kylian Mbappé (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against José Canale and Gustavo Gómez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 39%. The quality gap is significant (€191M vs €3M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.533 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ousmane Dembélé", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 97000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.892, "defenders": [ "Junior Alonso" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.417, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.666, "xg_contribution": 0.1735, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Junior Alonso", "role": "LB", "market_value": 1400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.334 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ousmane Dembélé (RW) has a clear attacking advantage against Junior Alonso in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 67%. The quality gap is significant (€97M vs €1M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.173 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Bradley Barcola", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 68000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.868, "defenders": [ "Julio Enciso" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.546, "xg_contribution": 0.0073, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Julio Enciso", "role": "CM", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.454 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bradley Barcola (CAM) is slightly favored against Julio Enciso in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 55%. The quality gap is significant (€68M vs €24M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.007 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.611, "away_midfield_power": 0.772, "home_creative_power": 0.462, "away_creative_power": 0.864, "home_defensive_power": 0.535, "away_defensive_power": 0.935, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.442, "home_midfield_count": 6, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Miguel Almirón", "Julio Enciso", "Diego Gómez", "Matías Galarza", "Andrés Cubas", "Damián Bobadilla" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Adrien Rabiot", "Manu Koné", "Michael Olise" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 47.3, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 52.7, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.1, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 9.3, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.3, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.7, "home_throughball_threat": 2.0, "away_throughball_threat": 3.2, "key_personal_duel": "Diego Gómez vs Michael Olise", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.964, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.029 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-3-1-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.02, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.02, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-3-1-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 0.657, "away_lambda": 2.956, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Miguel Almirón": { "opponents": [ "William Saliba", "Dayot Upamecano", "Manu Koné" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Damián Bobadilla": { "opponents": [ "Adrien Rabiot", "Manu Koné" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Julio Enciso": { "opponents": [ "Adrien Rabiot", "Bradley Barcola", "Manu Koné" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Juan Cáceres": { "opponents": [ "Michael Olise" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "José Canale": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Gustavo Gómez": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Junior Alonso": { "opponents": [ "Ousmane Dembélé" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Diego Gómez": { "opponents": [ "Michael Olise" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Andrés Cubas": { "opponents": [ "Adrien Rabiot" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Matías Galarza": { "opponents": [ "Michael Olise" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Orlando Gill": { "opponents": [ "Ousmane Dembélé", "Bradley Barcola" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "William Saliba": { "opponents": [ "Miguel Almirón" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dayot Upamecano": { "opponents": [ "Miguel Almirón" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Adrien Rabiot": { "opponents": [ "Damián Bobadilla", "Julio Enciso", "Andrés Cubas" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Manu Koné": { "opponents": [ "Damián Bobadilla", "Julio Enciso", "Miguel Almirón" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Michael Olise": { "opponents": [ "Juan Cáceres", "Diego Gómez", "Matías Galarza" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Kylian Mbappé": { "opponents": [ "José Canale", "Gustavo Gómez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ousmane Dembélé": { "opponents": [ "Junior Alonso" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Bradley Barcola": { "opponents": [ "Julio Enciso" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Mike Maignan": { "opponents": [ "Diego Gómez", "Andrés Cubas" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Lucas Digne": { "opponents": [ "Matías Galarza" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jules Koundé": { "opponents": [ "Diego Gómez" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Diego Gómez vs Michael Olise will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.49, Away: 0.96. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9234, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9975, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.031, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1118, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.892, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.007, "home_midfield_factor": 0.964, "away_midfield_factor": 1.029, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4956, "away_avg_quality": 0.8059, "avg_quality_gap": -0.3103, "squad_value_gap_log": -2.1598, "top5_value_gap_log": -2.0379, "attack_value_gap_log": -1.955, "elite_count_gap": -8, "combined_quality_gap": -0.6648, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.95, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.6, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.046, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0372, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.6648, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1712, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9435, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 0.696, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 2.524, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.696, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 2.5242, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 0.657, "final_away_lambda": 2.956 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-07-04T13:30:53Z" }