{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Canada", "away_team": "Germany", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260704", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-2", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 2, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1181, "match_resolution": "penalties_if_level", "predicted_winner": "Germany", "tiebreaker": { "applies": true, "method": "penalties_if_level", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.1118, "shootout_home_win_probability": 0.38, "shootout_away_win_probability": 0.62, "penalty_home_goals": 2, "penalty_away_goals": 4, "penalty_score": "2-4", "penalty_winner": "Germany", "penalty_winner_goals": 4, "penalty_loser_goals": 2, "penalty_result": "Germany wins 4-2 on penalties", "home_advance_probability": 0.0971, "away_advance_probability": 0.9029, "projected_winner": "Germany", "projected_winner_probability": 0.9029, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Knockout match: a tied scoreline remains possible, then the advancing team is projected through penalties." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.1181 }, { "score": "0-3", "probability": 0.1162 }, { "score": "0-4", "probability": 0.0857 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0799 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0776 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0273, "0-1": 0.0799, "0-2": 0.1181, "0-3": 0.1162, "0-4": 0.0857, "0-5": 0.0506, "0-6": 0.0249, "0-7": 0.0105, "0-8": 0.0039, "0-9": 0.0013, "1-0": 0.0177, "1-1": 0.0528, "1-2": 0.0776, "1-3": 0.0764, "1-4": 0.0563, "1-5": 0.0332, "1-6": 0.0163, "1-7": 0.0069, "1-8": 0.0025, "1-9": 0.0008, "2-0": 0.0059, "2-1": 0.0173, "2-2": 0.0255, "2-3": 0.0251, "2-4": 0.0185, "2-5": 0.0109, "2-6": 0.0054, "2-7": 0.0023, "2-8": 0.0008, "3-0": 0.0013, "3-1": 0.0038, "3-2": 0.0056, "3-3": 0.0055, "3-4": 0.0041, "3-5": 0.0024, "3-6": 0.0012, "4-1": 0.0006, "4-2": 0.0009, "4-3": 0.0009, "4-4": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.0547, "draw": 0.1118, "away_win": 0.8335 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.6984, "under_2_5_goals": 0.3016, "btts_yes": 0.4567, "btts_no": 0.5433, "home_clean_sheet": 0.0524, "away_clean_sheet": 0.5182 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 86.35, "MCR": 79.77, "ATR": 82.6, "GK": 80.08 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 87.52, "MCR": 87.35, "ATR": 88.12, "GK": 83.79 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Canada vs Germany. Most likely scoreline: 0-2. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 7 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Nick Woltemade, Kai Havertz", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Ismael Koné vs Jamal Musiala). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.79, Away: 1.31. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat." }, "confidence": 0.89, "home_lambda": 0.692, "away_lambda": 3.106 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.0547, "draw": 0.1118, "away_win": 0.8335 }, "favorite": "Germany", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8335, "fair_spread": -2.414, "fair_total": 3.798, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Canada", "estimate": 0.692, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Germany", "estimate": 3.106, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.6984, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4567, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Canada", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0524, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Germany", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5182, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Jonathan David (Canada)", "estimate": 0.1878, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Nico Schlotterbeck (Germany)", "estimate": 0.8073, "probability": 0.2159, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Alistair Johnston (Canada)", "estimate": 0.1624, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Florian Wirtz (Germany)", "estimate": 0.3028, "probability": 0.2582, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.798, "expected_total_shots": 28, "expected_total_passes": 835, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.9, "possession_home_pct": 46.0, "possession_away_pct": 54.0, "notes": "Germany projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Germany", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8335, "script": "Germany is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread -2.41 goals and fair total 3.80.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Canada must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Germany lead likely shifts toward control and counters; if level after extra time, penalties are live; Germany projects as the advancing side at 90.3% overall advancement probability with 11.2% draw pressure." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Germany chance creation leans on Karim Adeyemi against Alphonso Davies in Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat; Germany projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Canada: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Ali Ahmed, Cyle Larin, Jacen Russell Rowe.", "Germany: starters carry the main goal usage through Nick Woltemade, Kai Havertz; bench watchlist: Akram Afif, Almoez Ali.", "Assist usage should flow through Florian Wirtz; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Germany tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.90 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Canada is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; if level after extra time, penalties are live; Germany projects as the advancing side at 90.3% overall advancement probability with 11.2% draw pressure." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Germany.", "Canada wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Canada": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "Dayne St. Clair": { "player_id": 973286, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 97, "height": 190, "market_value": 3400000, "stats": { "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 0.6469, "rating": 80.0785, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 21, "total_long_balls": 11, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "touches": 42, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 12, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.9827, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 4, "possession_lost": 8.3531, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "expected_saves": 2.74, "high_pressure_saves": 1.05, "shots_faced": 5.9, "opponent_faced": "Karim Adeyemi, Nick Woltemade", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15171584, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Inter Miami CF", "away_team": "Philadelphia Union", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Inter Miami CF", "opponent": "Philadelphia Union", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 26, "ball_recovery": 16, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 1.0203 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "MLS", "league_id": "242", "league_slug": "mls", "league_country": "USA", "season_id": "86668", "season_name": "MLS 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15171567, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Inter Miami CF", "away_team": "Portland Timbers", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Inter Miami CF", "opponent": "Portland Timbers", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 17, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.3406 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "MLS", "league_id": "242", "league_slug": "mls", "league_country": "USA", "season_id": "86668", "season_name": "MLS 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 17528, "combined_rank_score": 2066.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 658.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 3474.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.0785, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dayne St. Clair", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mathias Delorge", "ranking": 17523 }, { "player_name": "Benjamin Nygren", "ranking": 17524 }, { "player_name": "Konstantinos Laifis", "ranking": 17525 }, { "player_name": "Kim Bong-Soo", "ranking": 17526 }, { "player_name": "Mads Pedersen", "ranking": 17527 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Tadeo Allende", "ranking": 17529 }, { "player_name": "Mark Travers", "ranking": 17530 }, { "player_name": "Alexis Manyoma", "ranking": 17531 }, { "player_name": "Abel Ruíz", "ranking": 17532 }, { "player_name": "Dennis Cirkin", "ranking": 17533 } ] } } }, "Alphonso Davies": { "player_id": 843665, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 185, "market_value": 39000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 91.3035, "minutes": 64, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 35, "possession_lost": 6.4958, "dispossessed": 1.0826, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0524, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0431, "expected_assists": 0.066, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 44, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 2.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.455, "opponent_faced": "Nick Woltemade", "pressing_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 12813000, "match_date": "2026-06-28", "home_team": "South Africa", "away_team": "Canada", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Canada", "opponent": "South Africa", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0558, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15632634, "match_date": "2026-05-06", "home_team": "FC Bayern München", "away_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Bayern München", "opponent": "Paris Saint-Germain", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 7.6, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1231, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065232, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "FC Bayern München", "away_team": "1. FC Heidenheim", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Bayern München", "opponent": "1. FC Heidenheim", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632632, "match_date": "2026-04-28", "home_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "away_team": "FC Bayern München", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Bayern München", "opponent": "Paris Saint-Germain", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0073, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 24, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632088, "match_date": "2026-04-15", "home_team": "FC Bayern München", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Bayern München", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0176, "expected_assists": 0.0287, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632084, "match_date": "2026-04-07", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "FC Bayern München", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Bayern München", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1594, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631361, "match_date": "2026-03-10", "home_team": "Atalanta", "away_team": "FC Bayern München", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Bayern München", "opponent": "Atalanta", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0821, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 11886259, "match_date": "2024-07-10", "home_team": "Argentina", "away_team": "Canada", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Canada", "opponent": "Argentina", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0565, "expected_assists": 0.2398, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" }, { "match_id": 11886368, "match_date": "2024-06-30", "home_team": "Canada", "away_team": "Chile", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Canada", "opponent": "Chile", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.044, 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"bench_expected_minutes": 25.51, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.425, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 87.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186829, "match_date": "2026-06-24", "home_team": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "away_team": "Qatar", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Qatar", "opponent": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0936, "expected_assists": 0.1224, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 44, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186798, "match_date": "2026-06-18", "home_team": "Canada", "away_team": "Qatar", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Qatar", "opponent": "Canada", "stats": { "minutes": 59, "rating": 7.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186526, "match_date": "2026-06-13", "home_team": "Qatar", "away_team": "Switzerland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Qatar", "opponent": "Switzerland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2126, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15603927, "match_date": "2026-04-27", "home_team": "Al-Sadd", "away_team": "Al Shamal SC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Al-Sadd", "opponent": "Al Shamal SC", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 8.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 33, "key_pass": 4, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Stars League", "league_id": "825", "league_slug": "stars-league", "league_country": "Qatar", "season_id": "77227", "season_name": "Stars League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15603918, "match_date": "2026-04-08", "home_team": "Al-Sailiya", "away_team": "Al-Sadd", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Al-Sadd", "opponent": "Al-Sailiya", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.7, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 62, "accurate_pass": 48, "key_pass": 7, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Stars League", "league_id": "825", "league_slug": "stars-league", "league_country": "Qatar", "season_id": "77227", "season_name": "Stars League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15603910, "match_date": "2026-04-04", "home_team": "Al-Rayyan", "away_team": "Al-Sadd", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Al-Sadd", "opponent": "Al-Rayyan", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Stars League", "league_id": "825", "league_slug": "stars-league", "league_country": "Qatar", "season_id": "77227", "season_name": "Stars League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15603899, "match_date": "2026-03-17", "home_team": "Al-Arabi SC", "away_team": "Al-Sadd", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Al-Sadd", "opponent": "Al-Arabi SC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 1, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Stars League", "league_id": "825", "league_slug": "stars-league", "league_country": "Qatar", "season_id": "77227", "season_name": "Stars League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15690007, "match_date": "2026-03-13", "home_team": "Al-Sadd", "away_team": "Umm-Salal SC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Al-Sadd", "opponent": "Umm-Salal SC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 4, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Stars League", "league_id": "825", "league_slug": "stars-league", "league_country": "Qatar", "season_id": "77227", "season_name": "Stars League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 390, "combined_rank_score": 137.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 77.0, "fifa_overall": 87.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.7186, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Akram Afif", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Péter Gulácsi", "ranking": 385 }, { "player_name": "Bojan Ciger", "ranking": 386 }, { "player_name": "Sebastián Guzmán", "ranking": 387 }, { "player_name": "Sandzhar Kuvvatov", "ranking": 388 }, { "player_name": "Nahuel Ferraresi", "ranking": 389 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Mujaid Sadick", "ranking": 391 }, { "player_name": "Jonas Adjei Adjetey", "ranking": 392 }, { "player_name": "Nicolò Barella", "ranking": 393 }, { "player_name": "Juninho Capixaba", "ranking": 394 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Nestor", "ranking": 395 } ] } } }, "Almoez Ali": { "player_id": 796501, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 180, "market_value": 2400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0006, "goal_rate": 0.0003, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 88.2682, "minutes": 25, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.5856, "dispossessed": 0.9812, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0662, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.425, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186829, "match_date": "2026-06-24", "home_team": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "away_team": "Qatar", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Qatar", "opponent": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0712, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15603929, "match_date": "2026-04-27", "home_team": "Qatar SC", "away_team": "Al Duhail", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Al Duhail", "opponent": "Qatar SC", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Stars League", "league_id": "825", "league_slug": "stars-league", "league_country": "Qatar", "season_id": "77227", "season_name": "Stars League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15603921, "match_date": "2026-04-08", "home_team": "Al-Ahli Doha", "away_team": "Al Duhail", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Al Duhail", "opponent": "Al-Ahli Doha", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Stars League", "league_id": "825", "league_slug": "stars-league", "league_country": "Qatar", "season_id": "77227", "season_name": "Stars League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15603914, "match_date": "2026-04-04", "home_team": "Al Duhail", "away_team": "Al-Gharafa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Al Duhail", "opponent": "Al-Gharafa", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Stars League", "league_id": "825", "league_slug": "stars-league", "league_country": "Qatar", "season_id": "77227", "season_name": "Stars League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 917, "combined_rank_score": 333.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 420.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.2682, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Almoez Ali", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Alex Collado", "ranking": 912 }, { "player_name": "Petter Nosakhare Dahl", "ranking": 913 }, { "player_name": "Josue Ndenge Kongolo", "ranking": 914 }, { "player_name": "Emerson Batalla", "ranking": 915 }, { "player_name": "Josafat Mendes", "ranking": 916 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "David Planka", "ranking": 918 }, { "player_name": "Braian Aguirre", "ranking": 919 }, { "player_name": "Rubén Duarte", "ranking": 920 }, { "player_name": "Juan Manuel Rengifo", "ranking": 921 }, { "player_name": "Kouadio Ange Ahoussou", "ranking": 922 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 3.11, "expected_assists": 1.39, "total_shots": 16, "shots_on_target": 9, "total_passes": 516, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 21, "avg_rating": 87.28, "possession_estimated_pct": 54.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 10.0 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Tajon Buchanan", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 13000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.557, "defenders": [ "Lennart Karl" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.859, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.344, "xg_contribution": 0.0854, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lennart Karl", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 63000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.656 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tajon Buchanan (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Lennart Karl in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€13M vs €63M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.085 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ismael Koné", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Aleksandar Pavlović" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.892, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.335, "xg_contribution": 0.0514, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aleksandar Pavlović", "role": "CM", "market_value": 96000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.665 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ismael Koné (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Aleksandar Pavlović in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €96M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.051 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Stephen Eustaquio", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 7600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.494, "defenders": [ "Aleksandar Pavlović" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.892, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.209, "xg_contribution": 0.0764, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aleksandar Pavlović", "role": "CM", "market_value": 96000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.5, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.791 } ], "duel_analysis": "Stephen Eustaquio (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Aleksandar Pavlović in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 21%. The quality gap is significant (€8M vs €96M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.076 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Nathan-Dylan Saliba", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 6900000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.485, "defenders": [ "Jamal Musiala" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.897, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.191, "xg_contribution": 0.0519, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jamal Musiala", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 116000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.6, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.809 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nathan-Dylan Saliba (RWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jamal Musiala in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 19%. The quality gap is significant (€7M vs €116M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.052 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Jonathan David", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 34000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.746, "defenders": [ "Nico Schlotterbeck" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.845, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.361, "xg_contribution": 0.3068, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nico Schlotterbeck", "role": "CB", "market_value": 57000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.639 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jonathan David (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Nico Schlotterbeck in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. The quality gap is significant (€34M vs €57M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.307 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Tani Oluwaseyi", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 8600000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.506, "defenders": [ "Nico Schlotterbeck" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.845, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.285, "xg_contribution": 0.0735, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nico Schlotterbeck", "role": "CB", "market_value": 57000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.715 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tani Oluwaseyi (SS) is heavily outmatched defensively against Nico Schlotterbeck in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€9M vs €57M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.073 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Promise David", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 18100000, "attacker_height": 196, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.612, "defenders": [ "Nico Schlotterbeck", "Malick Thiaw" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.816, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1492, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nico Schlotterbeck", "role": "CB", "market_value": 57000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Malick Thiaw", "role": "CB", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Promise David (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Nico Schlotterbeck and Malick Thiaw in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€18M vs €49M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.149 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Jamal Musiala", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 116000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.897, "defenders": [ "Nathan-Dylan Saliba" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.485, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.649, "xg_contribution": 0.1556, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 3.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nathan-Dylan Saliba", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 6900000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.351 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jamal Musiala (LWB) has a clear attacking advantage against Nathan-Dylan Saliba in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 65%. The quality gap is significant (€116M vs €7M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.156 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Aleksandar Pavlović", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 96000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.892, "defenders": [ "Ismael Koné" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.505, "xg_contribution": 0.1872, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ismael Koné", "role": "CM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.495 } ], "duel_analysis": "Aleksandar Pavlović (CM) is slightly favored against Ismael Koné in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. The quality gap is significant (€96M vs €26M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.187 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Florian Wirtz", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 105000000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.895, "defenders": [ "Ismael Koné" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.462, "xg_contribution": 0.1456, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ismael Koné", "role": "CM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.538 } ], "duel_analysis": "Florian Wirtz (CM) is evenly matched against Ismael Koné in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. The quality gap is significant (€105M vs €26M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.146 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Lennart Karl", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 63000000, "attacker_height": 168, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.859, "defenders": [ "Tajon Buchanan" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.557, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.496, "xg_contribution": 0.1393, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 3.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Tajon Buchanan", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 13000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.504 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lennart Karl (RWB) is evenly matched against Tajon Buchanan in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. The quality gap is significant (€63M vs €13M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.139 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Nick Woltemade", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 70000000, "attacker_height": 198, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.871, "defenders": [ "Alphonso Davies" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.775, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.545, "xg_contribution": 0.1913, "shots_in_zone": 2.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alphonso Davies", "role": "CB", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.455 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nick Woltemade (SS) is slightly favored against Alphonso Davies in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 54%. The quality gap is significant (€70M vs €39M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.191 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Karim Adeyemi", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 52000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.831, "defenders": [ "Alphonso Davies" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.775, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.443, "xg_contribution": 0.3265, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alphonso Davies", "role": "CB", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.557 } ], "duel_analysis": "Karim Adeyemi (SS) is evenly matched against Alphonso Davies in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.326 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Kai Havertz", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 53000000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.834, "defenders": [ "Alphonso Davies", "Moise Bombito" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.636, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "xg_contribution": 0.161, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alphonso Davies", "role": "CB", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.689 }, { "player": "Moise Bombito", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.689 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kai Havertz (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Alphonso Davies and Moise Bombito in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€53M vs €23M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.161 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.581, "away_midfield_power": 0.911, "home_creative_power": 0.61, "away_creative_power": 1.014, "home_defensive_power": 0.516, "away_defensive_power": 1.032, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.389, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Ismael Koné", "Tajon Buchanan", "Stephen Eustaquio", "Nathan-Dylan Saliba" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Jamal Musiala", "Florian Wirtz", "Aleksandar Pavlović", "Lennart Karl" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 46.0, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 54.0, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.9, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 10.0, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.2, "away_key_passes_projected": 7.6, "home_throughball_threat": 2.4, "away_throughball_threat": 3.6, "key_personal_duel": "Ismael Koné vs Jamal Musiala", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.958, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.047 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 0.692, "away_lambda": 3.106, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Tajon Buchanan": { "opponents": [ "Lennart Karl", "Jamal Musiala" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ismael Koné": { "opponents": [ "Aleksandar Pavlović", "Florian Wirtz" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Stephen Eustaquio": { "opponents": [ "Aleksandar Pavlović", "Florian Wirtz" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nathan-Dylan Saliba": { "opponents": [ "Jamal Musiala", "Lennart Karl" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jonathan David": { "opponents": [ "Nico Schlotterbeck" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Tani Oluwaseyi": { "opponents": [ "Nico Schlotterbeck" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Promise David": { "opponents": [ "Nico Schlotterbeck", "Malick Thiaw" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Alphonso Davies": { "opponents": [ "Nick Woltemade", "Karim Adeyemi", "Kai Havertz" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Moise Bombito": { "opponents": [ "Kai Havertz" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dayne St. Clair": { "opponents": [ "Nick Woltemade", "Karim Adeyemi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Alistair Johnston": { "opponents": [ "Nick Woltemade" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Lennart Karl": { "opponents": [ "Tajon Buchanan", "Nathan-Dylan Saliba" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Aleksandar Pavlović": { "opponents": [ "Ismael Koné", "Stephen Eustaquio" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jamal Musiala": { "opponents": [ "Nathan-Dylan Saliba", "Tajon Buchanan" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nico Schlotterbeck": { "opponents": [ "Jonathan David", "Tani Oluwaseyi", "Promise David" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Malick Thiaw": { "opponents": [ "Promise David" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Florian Wirtz": { "opponents": [ "Ismael Koné", "Stephen Eustaquio" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nick Woltemade": { "opponents": [ "Alphonso Davies" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Karim Adeyemi": { "opponents": [ "Alphonso Davies" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Kai Havertz": { "opponents": [ "Alphonso Davies", "Moise Bombito" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Noah Atubolu": { "opponents": [ "Jonathan David", "Tani Oluwaseyi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Tom Bischof": { "opponents": [ "Jonathan David" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Ismael Koné vs Jamal Musiala). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.79, Away: 1.31. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9337, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0086, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1795, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8867, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9699, "home_midfield_factor": 0.958, "away_midfield_factor": 1.047, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5851, "away_avg_quality": 0.8485, "avg_quality_gap": -0.2634, "squad_value_gap_log": -1.3688, "top5_value_gap_log": -1.1889, "attack_value_gap_log": -1.5149, "elite_count_gap": -9, "combined_quality_gap": -0.3789, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.8336, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.5305, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0622, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0055, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.3789, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.0997, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9721, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 0.712, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 2.824, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.7122, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 2.8235, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 0.692, "final_away_lambda": 3.106 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-07-01T04:16:04Z" }