{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Canada", "away_team": "Morocco", "tournament": "World Championship", "date": "20260704", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1104, "match_resolution": "penalties_if_level", "predicted_winner": "Morocco", "tiebreaker": { "applies": true, "method": "penalties_if_level", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2324, "shootout_home_win_probability": 0.4194, "shootout_away_win_probability": 0.5806, "penalty_home_goals": 4, "penalty_away_goals": 5, "penalty_score": "4-5", "penalty_winner": "Morocco", "penalty_winner_goals": 5, "penalty_loser_goals": 4, "penalty_result": "Morocco wins 5-4 on penalties", "home_advance_probability": 0.3044, "away_advance_probability": 0.6956, "projected_winner": "Morocco", "projected_winner_probability": 0.6956, "final_score_after_penalties": "1-1 (Morocco wins 5-4 on penalties)", "reason": "Knockout match: a tied scoreline remains possible, then the advancing team is projected through penalties." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1104 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1091 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0987 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0985 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0619 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0619, "0-1": 0.1091, "0-2": 0.0987, "0-3": 0.0592, "0-4": 0.0266, "0-5": 0.0096, "0-6": 0.0029, "0-7": 0.0007, "1-0": 0.0602, "1-1": 0.1104, "1-2": 0.0985, "1-3": 0.059, "1-4": 0.0265, "1-5": 0.0095, "1-6": 0.0029, "1-7": 0.0007, "2-0": 0.0304, "2-1": 0.0547, "2-2": 0.0491, "2-3": 0.0294, "2-4": 0.0132, "2-5": 0.0048, "2-6": 0.0014, "3-0": 0.0101, "3-1": 0.0182, "3-2": 0.0163, "3-3": 0.0098, "3-4": 0.0044, "3-5": 0.0016, "4-0": 0.0025, "4-1": 0.0045, "4-2": 0.0041, "4-3": 0.0024, "4-4": 0.0011, "5-0": 0.0005, "5-1": 0.0009, "5-2": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2069, "draw": 0.2324, "away_win": 0.5607 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5293, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4707, "btts_yes": 0.5274, "btts_no": 0.4726, "home_clean_sheet": 0.1657, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3688 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 81.81, "MCR": 79.53, "ATR": 82.7, "GK": 75.61 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 86.36, "MCR": 84.3, "ATR": 6.5, "GK": 91.28 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Canada vs Morocco. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Jonathan David, Ismael Saibari", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Tajon Buchanan vs Ayyoub Bouaddi). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.38, Away: 0.44. Home danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle." }, "confidence": 0.77, "home_lambda": 1.05, "away_lambda": 1.892 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2069, "draw": 0.2324, "away_win": 0.5607 }, "favorite": "Morocco", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5607, "fair_spread": -0.842, "fair_total": 2.942, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Canada", "estimate": 1.05, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Morocco", "estimate": 1.892, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5293, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5274, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Canada", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1657, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Morocco", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3688, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Moise Bombito (Canada)", "estimate": 0.2383, "probability": 0.0566, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Issa Diop (Morocco)", "estimate": 0.8676, "probability": 0.195, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Richie Laryea (Canada)", "estimate": 0.2314, "probability": 0.1258, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Bilal El Khannouss (Morocco)", "estimate": 0.1715, "probability": 0.191, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.942, "expected_total_shots": 24, "expected_total_passes": 824, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.7, "possession_home_pct": 46.5, "possession_away_pct": 53.5, "notes": "Morocco projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Morocco", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5607, "script": "Morocco is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread -0.84 goals and fair total 2.94.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Canada must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Morocco lead likely shifts toward control and counters; if level after extra time, penalties are live; Morocco projects as the advancing side at 69.6% overall advancement probability with 23.2% draw pressure." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Morocco chance creation leans on Ismael Saibari against Alistair Johnston in Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle; Morocco projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Canada: starters carry the main goal usage through Jonathan David; bench watchlist: Ismael Koné, Promise David, Ali Ahmed.", "Morocco: starters carry the main goal usage through Ismael Saibari; bench watchlist: Chemsdine Talbi, Samir El Mourabet, Gessime Yassine.", "Assist usage should flow through Stephen Eustaquio, Bilal El Khannouss; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Morocco tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.47 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Canada is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; if level after extra time, penalties are live; Morocco projects as the advancing side at 69.6% overall advancement probability with 23.2% draw pressure." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Morocco.", "Canada wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Canada": { "formation": "4-4-2", "players": { "Tani Oluwaseyi": { "player_id": 1172477, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 12, "height": 188, "market_value": 7500000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0584, "goal_rate": 0.0004, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 76.627, "minutes": 38, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 5, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 14, "possession_lost": 6.2762, "dispossessed": 1.6663, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 3, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.2993, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 16, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Issa Diop, Chadi Riad", "opponent_faced": "Issa Diop, Chadi Riad", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0937, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0177, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 12813000, "match_date": "2026-06-28", "home_team": "South Africa", "away_team": "Canada", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Canada", "opponent": "South Africa", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2398, "expected_assists": 0.0691, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 10, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186821, "match_date": "2026-06-24", "home_team": "Switzerland", "away_team": "Canada", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Canada", "opponent": "Switzerland", "stats": { "minutes": 32, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186798, "match_date": "2026-06-18", "home_team": "Canada", "away_team": "Qatar", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Canada", "opponent": "Qatar", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1015, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186836, "match_date": "2026-06-12", "home_team": "Canada", "away_team": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Canada", "opponent": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.18, "expected_assists": 0.0033, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14083682, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1448, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 11886259, "match_date": "2024-07-10", "home_team": "Argentina", "away_team": "Canada", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Canada", "opponent": "Argentina", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2702, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" }, { "match_id": 11886368, "match_date": "2024-06-30", "home_team": "Canada", "away_team": "Chile", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Canada", "opponent": "Chile", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" }, { "match_id": 11886361, "match_date": "2024-06-25", "home_team": "Peru", "away_team": "Canada", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Canada", "opponent": "Peru", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 5.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8307, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 19083, "combined_rank_score": 3285.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 855.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.504, "sofascore_appearances": 27.0, "fifa_rank": 5716.0, "fifa_overall": 70.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.627, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Tani Oluwaseyi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Gumbau", "ranking": 19078 }, { "player_name": "Karl Hein", "ranking": 19079 }, { "player_name": "Assan Ouédraogo", "ranking": 19080 }, { "player_name": "Nicolai Vallys", "ranking": 19081 }, { "player_name": "Morgan Whittaker", "ranking": 19082 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Mohamed Belloumi", "ranking": 19084 }, { "player_name": "Isaac Price", "ranking": 19085 }, { "player_name": "Alexis Beka Beka", "ranking": 19086 }, { "player_name": "Jeppe Erenbjerg", "ranking": 19087 }, { "player_name": "Nico Serrano", "ranking": 19088 } ] } } }, "Jonathan David": { "player_id": 935564, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 180, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2127, "goal_rate": 0.001, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0541, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 88.7747, "minutes": 66, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 12, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 30, "possession_lost": 11.2359, "dispossessed": 2.4768, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 1.0417, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 17, "progressive_carries": 1, "opponent_faced": "Achraf Hakimi, Noussair Mazraoui", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2784, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0413, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 12813000, "match_date": "2026-06-28", "home_team": "South Africa", "away_team": "Canada", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Canada", "opponent": "South Africa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1773, "expected_assists": 0.0212, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186821, "match_date": "2026-06-24", "home_team": "Switzerland", "away_team": "Canada", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Canada", "opponent": "Switzerland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2204, "expected_assists": 0.1779, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186798, "match_date": "2026-06-18", "home_team": "Canada", "away_team": "Qatar", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Canada", "opponent": "Qatar", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.0, "goal_rate": 3.0, "goals": 3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.9759, "expected_assists": 0.0533, "total_shots": 8, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 16, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186836, "match_date": "2026-06-12", "home_team": "Canada", "away_team": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Canada", "opponent": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3893, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 13980077, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Torino", "away_team": "Juventus", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Juventus", "opponent": "Torino", "stats": { "minutes": 28, "rating": 6.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Serie A", "league_id": "23", 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"expected_assists": 0.0054, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186859, "match_date": "2026-06-19", "home_team": "Scotland", "away_team": "Morocco", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Morocco", "opponent": "Scotland", "stats": { "minutes": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0284, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186850, "match_date": "2026-06-13", 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"has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15889322, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Stade Brestois", "away_team": "RC Strasbourg", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "RC Strasbourg", "opponent": "Stade Brestois", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0081, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 50, "accurate_pass": 46, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14167988, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "RC Strasbourg", "away_team": "Toulouse", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "RC Strasbourg", "opponent": "Toulouse", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 28, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 10, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 21623, "combined_rank_score": 5530.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 10956.0, "fifa_overall": 65.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.8352, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Samir El Mourabet", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Tomás Porra", "ranking": 21618 }, { "player_name": "Patrickson Delgado", "ranking": 21619 }, { "player_name": "Silas Andersen", "ranking": 21620 }, { "player_name": "Marcus Fraser", "ranking": 21621 }, { "player_name": "Axel Tape", "ranking": 21622 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Andrea Cistana", "ranking": 21624 }, { "player_name": "Jeff Reine-Adélaïde", "ranking": 21625 }, { "player_name": "Yun-sang Hong", "ranking": 21626 }, { "player_name": "Muhannad Al Shanqeeti", "ranking": 21627 }, { "player_name": "Luis Casiani", "ranking": 21628 } ] } } }, "Sofyan Amrabat": { "player_id": 359272, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 183, "market_value": 9700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0169, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "rating": 84.8065, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 1.5371, "dispossessed": 1.0057, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.2491, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0324, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.513, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.29, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.558, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186864, "match_date": "2026-06-24", "home_team": "Morocco", "away_team": "Haiti", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Morocco", "opponent": "Haiti", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0355, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 69, "accurate_pass": 64, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14083666, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0288, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 39, "tackles": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083608, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0258, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 43, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632618, "match_date": "2026-04-16", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Sporting Braga", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Sporting Braga", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2469, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 50, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632614, "match_date": "2026-04-08", "home_team": "Sporting Braga", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Sporting Braga", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0049, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631841, "match_date": "2026-03-19", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Panathinaikos FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Panathinaikos FC", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0224, "expected_assists": 0.0304, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 69, "accurate_pass": 65, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 14749, "combined_rank_score": 698.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 358.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9647, "sofascore_appearances": 17.0, "fifa_rank": 1039.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.8065, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Sofyan Amrabat", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Hirving Lozano", "ranking": 14744 }, { "player_name": "Konstantinos Fortounis", "ranking": 14745 }, { "player_name": "Federico Gatti", "ranking": 14746 }, { "player_name": "Gonzalo García", "ranking": 14747 }, { "player_name": "Gelson Martins", "ranking": 14748 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "José Tiznado", "ranking": 14750 }, { "player_name": "Neco Williams", "ranking": 14751 }, { "player_name": "Thiago Almada", "ranking": 14752 }, { "player_name": "Alisher Shukurov", "ranking": 14753 }, { "player_name": "Danny Welbeck", "ranking": 14754 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.89, "expected_assists": 0.89, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 11, "total_passes": 478, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 14, "avg_rating": 85.68, "possession_estimated_pct": 53.5, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.3 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Tani Oluwaseyi", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7500000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.493, "defenders": [ "Issa Diop", "Chadi Riad" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.538, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0634, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Issa Diop", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8199999, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Chadi Riad", "role": "CB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tani Oluwaseyi (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Issa Diop and Chadi Riad in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.063 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Liam Millar", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 2900000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.436, "defenders": [ "Achraf Hakimi" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.884, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.259, "xg_contribution": 0.1007, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Achraf Hakimi", "role": "RB", "market_value": 82000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.4, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.741 } ], "duel_analysis": "Liam Millar (LM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Achraf Hakimi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €82M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.101 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Stephen Eustaquio", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 6500000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.481, "defenders": [ "Noussair Mazraoui" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.606, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.384, "xg_contribution": 0.1326, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Noussair Mazraoui", "role": "LB", "market_value": 17500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.616 } ], "duel_analysis": "Stephen Eustaquio (RM) faces tough defensive resistance against Noussair Mazraoui in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.133 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Nathan-Dylan Saliba", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 6900000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.485, "defenders": [ "Ayyoub Bouaddi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.837, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.244, "xg_contribution": 0.0812, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.4, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.756 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nathan-Dylan Saliba (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ayyoub Bouaddi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€7M vs €54M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.081 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Ismael Saibari", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Alistair Johnston" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.494, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.638, "xg_contribution": 0.1557, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alistair Johnston", "role": "RB", "market_value": 7600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.362 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ismael Saibari (LW) has a clear attacking advantage against Alistair Johnston in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 64%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €8M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.156 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Bilal El Khannouss", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 32000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.732, "defenders": [ "Richie Laryea" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.412, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.644, "xg_contribution": 0.0878, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Richie Laryea", "role": "LB", "market_value": 950000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.356 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bilal El Khannouss (RW) has a clear attacking advantage against Richie Laryea in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 64%. The quality gap is significant (€32M vs €1M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.088 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Brahim Díaz", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 37000000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.764, "defenders": [ "Nathan-Dylan Saliba" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.485, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.533, "xg_contribution": 0.0671, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nathan-Dylan Saliba", "role": "CM", "market_value": 6900000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.467 } ], "duel_analysis": "Brahim Díaz (CAM) is slightly favored against Nathan-Dylan Saliba in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 53%. The quality gap is significant (€37M vs €7M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.067 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Azzedine Ounahi", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 10300000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.526, "defenders": [ "Derek Cornelius", "Moise Bombito" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.456, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.203, "xg_contribution": 0.0304, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Derek Cornelius", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.797 }, { "player": "Moise Bombito", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.797 } ], "duel_analysis": "Azzedine Ounahi (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Derek Cornelius and Moise Bombito in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 20%. Projected xG contribution: 0.030 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 54000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.837, "defenders": [ "Nathan-Dylan Saliba" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.485, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.606, "xg_contribution": 0.1012, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nathan-Dylan Saliba", "role": "CM", "market_value": 6900000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.394 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ayyoub Bouaddi (CDM) has a clear attacking advantage against Nathan-Dylan Saliba in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 61%. The quality gap is significant (€54M vs €7M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.101 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.515, "away_midfield_power": 0.793, "home_creative_power": 0.452, "away_creative_power": 0.791, "home_defensive_power": 0.419, "away_defensive_power": 0.73, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.394, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 6, "home_midfield_players": [ "Liam Millar", "Stephen Eustaquio", "Nathan-Dylan Saliba", "Tajon Buchanan" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Ismael Saibari", "Bilal El Khannouss", "Brahim Díaz", "Azzedine Ounahi", "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "Neil El Aynaoui" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 46.5, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 53.5, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.4, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.3, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.2, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.2, "home_throughball_threat": 2.0, "away_throughball_threat": 3.0, "key_personal_duel": "Tajon Buchanan vs Ayyoub Bouaddi", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.96, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.045 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.04, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.07, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.05, "away_lambda": 1.892, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Tani Oluwaseyi": { "opponents": [ "Issa Diop", "Chadi Riad" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Liam Millar": { "opponents": [ "Achraf Hakimi", "Neil El Aynaoui" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Stephen Eustaquio": { "opponents": [ "Noussair Mazraoui", "Ismael Saibari" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Nathan-Dylan Saliba": { "opponents": [ "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "Brahim Díaz", "Bilal El Khannouss" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alistair Johnston": { "opponents": [ "Ismael Saibari" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Richie Laryea": { "opponents": [ "Bilal El Khannouss" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Derek Cornelius": { "opponents": [ "Azzedine Ounahi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Moise Bombito": { "opponents": [ "Azzedine Ounahi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Tajon Buchanan": { "opponents": [ "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "Azzedine Ounahi" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Maxime Crépeau": { "opponents": [ "Brahim Díaz", "Neil El Aynaoui" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jonathan David": { "opponents": [ "Achraf Hakimi", "Noussair Mazraoui" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Issa Diop": { "opponents": [ "Tani Oluwaseyi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Chadi Riad": { "opponents": [ "Tani Oluwaseyi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Achraf Hakimi": { "opponents": [ "Liam Millar" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Noussair Mazraoui": { "opponents": [ "Stephen Eustaquio" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ayyoub Bouaddi": { "opponents": [ "Nathan-Dylan Saliba", "Tajon Buchanan" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ismael Saibari": { "opponents": [ "Alistair Johnston", "Stephen Eustaquio" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Bilal El Khannouss": { "opponents": [ "Richie Laryea", "Nathan-Dylan Saliba" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Brahim Díaz": { "opponents": [ "Nathan-Dylan Saliba" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Azzedine Ounahi": { "opponents": [ "Derek Cornelius", "Moise Bombito", "Tajon Buchanan" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Neil El Aynaoui": { "opponents": [ "Liam Millar" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Yassine Bounou": { "opponents": [ "Jonathan David", "Tani Oluwaseyi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~54% possession expected (Tajon Buchanan vs Ayyoub Bouaddi). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.38, Away: 0.44. Home danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0112, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0163, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.118, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1586, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9369, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0004, "home_midfield_factor": 0.96, "away_midfield_factor": 1.045, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.498, "away_avg_quality": 0.6875, "avg_quality_gap": -0.1895, "squad_value_gap_log": -1.2665, "top5_value_gap_log": -1.2528, "attack_value_gap_log": -1.0157, "elite_count_gap": -3, "combined_quality_gap": -0.3745, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.8239, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.5243, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0895, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0187, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.3745, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.0986, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9726, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 0.74, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 1.722, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.05, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.72, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.892, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.7395, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.7217, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 1.05, "final_away_lambda": 1.892 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-07-04T13:30:53Z" }