{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Canada", "away_team": "W75", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260704", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-4-2" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-0", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1253, "match_resolution": "penalties_if_level", "predicted_winner": "Canada", "tiebreaker": { "applies": true, "method": "penalties_if_level", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.1385, "shootout_home_win_probability": 0.62, "shootout_away_win_probability": 0.38, "home_advance_probability": 0.8736, "away_advance_probability": 0.1264, "projected_winner": "Canada", "projected_winner_probability": 0.8736, "reason": "Knockout match: a tied scoreline remains possible, then the advancing team is projected through penalties." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.1253 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.1099 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0951 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0862 }, { "score": "3-1", "probability": 0.0756 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0364, "0-1": 0.0247, "0-2": 0.0086, "0-3": 0.002, "1-0": 0.0951, "1-1": 0.0658, "1-2": 0.0225, "1-3": 0.0052, "1-4": 0.0009, "2-0": 0.1253, "2-1": 0.0862, "2-2": 0.0296, "2-3": 0.0068, "2-4": 0.0012, "3-0": 0.1099, "3-1": 0.0756, "3-2": 0.026, "3-3": 0.006, "3-4": 0.001, "4-0": 0.0723, "4-1": 0.0497, "4-2": 0.0171, "4-3": 0.0039, "4-4": 0.0007, "5-0": 0.038, "5-1": 0.0262, "5-2": 0.009, "5-3": 0.0021, "6-0": 0.0167, "6-1": 0.0115, "6-2": 0.0039, "6-3": 0.0009, "7-0": 0.0063, "7-1": 0.0043, "7-2": 0.0015, "8-0": 0.0021, "8-1": 0.0014, "9-0": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.7877, "draw": 0.1385, "away_win": 0.0738 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.6441, "under_2_5_goals": 0.3559, "btts_yes": 0.4617, "btts_no": 0.5383, "home_clean_sheet": 0.5027, "away_clean_sheet": 0.0721 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 84.17, "MCR": 81.38, "ATR": 82.6, "GK": 80.08 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.8, "MCR": 6.9, "ATR": 6.9, "GK": 6.8 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Canada vs W75. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Jonathan David, Promise David", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Ismael Koné vs W75 M1 will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.85, Away: 0.36. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.86, "home_lambda": 2.769, "away_lambda": 0.724 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.7877, "draw": 0.1385, "away_win": 0.0738 }, "favorite": "Canada", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7877, "fair_spread": 2.045, "fair_total": 3.493, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Canada", "estimate": 2.769, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "W75", "estimate": 0.724, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.6441, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4617, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Canada", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5027, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "W75", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0721, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Jonathan David (Canada)", "estimate": 0.8734, "probability": 0.5598, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "W75 F2 (W75)", "estimate": 0.1805, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Alistair Johnston (Canada)", "estimate": 0.2396, "probability": 0.1647, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "W75 M1 (W75)", "estimate": 0.0989, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.493, "expected_total_shots": 24, "expected_total_passes": 798, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.1, "possession_home_pct": 51.7, "possession_away_pct": 48.3, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Canada", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7877, "script": "Canada is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +2.04 goals and fair total 3.49.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; W75 must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Canada lead likely shifts toward control and counters; if level after extra time, penalties are live; Canada projects as the advancing side at 87.4% overall advancement probability with 13.9% draw pressure." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Canada chance creation leans on Jonathan David against W75 D4 in Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Canada: starters carry the main goal usage through Jonathan David, Promise David; bench watchlist: Cyle Larin, Jacen Russell Rowe.", "W75: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: W75 SUB F6, W75 SUB F7, W75 SUB M4.", "Assist usage should flow through Stephen Eustaquio; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Canada tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.75 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If W75 is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; if level after extra time, penalties are live; Canada projects as the advancing side at 87.4% overall advancement probability with 13.9% draw pressure." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Canada.", "W75 wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Canada": { "formation": "4-3-3", "players": { "Dayne St. Clair": { "player_id": 973286, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 97, "height": 190, "market_value": 3400000, "stats": { "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 0.6469, "rating": 80.0785, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 21, "total_long_balls": 11, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "touches": 42, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 12, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.9827, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 4, "possession_lost": 8.3531, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 20, "accurate_own_half_passes": 20, "expected_saves": 0.76, "high_pressure_saves": 0.29, "shots_faced": 1.6, "opponent_faced": "W75 F1, W75 M1", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15171584, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Inter Miami CF", "away_team": "Philadelphia Union", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Inter Miami CF", "opponent": "Philadelphia Union", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 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"ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 658.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 3474.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.0785, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dayne St. Clair", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mathias Delorge", "ranking": 17523 }, { "player_name": "Benjamin Nygren", "ranking": 17524 }, { "player_name": "Konstantinos Laifis", "ranking": 17525 }, { "player_name": "Kim Bong-Soo", "ranking": 17526 }, { "player_name": "Mads Pedersen", "ranking": 17527 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Tadeo Allende", "ranking": 17529 }, { "player_name": "Mark Travers", "ranking": 17530 }, { "player_name": "Alexis Manyoma", "ranking": 17531 }, { "player_name": "Abel Ruíz", "ranking": 17532 }, { "player_name": "Dennis Cirkin", "ranking": 17533 } ] } } }, "Alphonso Davies": { "player_id": 843665, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 185, "market_value": 39000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 91.3035, "minutes": 64, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 21, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 35, "possession_lost": 6.4958, "dispossessed": 1.0826, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0524, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1416, "expected_assists": 0.0974, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 9, "total_progression": 44, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.2, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "W75 F1", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.031, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0834, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 12813000, "match_date": "2026-06-28", "home_team": "South Africa", "away_team": "Canada", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Canada", "opponent": "South Africa", "stats": { "minutes": 15, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0558, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 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"home_team": "FC Bayern München", "away_team": "1. FC Heidenheim", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "FC Bayern München", "opponent": "1. FC Heidenheim", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632632, "match_date": "2026-04-28", "home_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "away_team": "FC Bayern München", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Bayern München", "opponent": "Paris Saint-Germain", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0073, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 24, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", 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"season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 11886259, "match_date": "2024-07-10", "home_team": "Argentina", "away_team": "Canada", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Canada", "opponent": "Argentina", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0565, "expected_assists": 0.2398, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" }, { "match_id": 11886368, "match_date": "2024-06-30", "home_team": "Canada", "away_team": "Chile", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Canada", "opponent": "Chile", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.044, 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"projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "W75 SUB F6", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } }, "W75 SUB F7": { "player_id": 15369770, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 0, "height": 180, "market_value": 0, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0507, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0179, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.2763, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0481, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "W75 SUB F7", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } }, "W75 SUB M4": { "player_id": 15369767, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 0, "height": 180, "market_value": 0, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0242, "expected_goals": 0.0158, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 1.9775, "dispossessed": 0.7, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0146, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0132, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 18, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "W75 SUB M4", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.72, "expected_assists": 0.72, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 475, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 18, "avg_rating": 6.85, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.3, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Jonathan David", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 34000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.746, "defenders": [ "W75 D4" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.619, "xg_contribution": 0.4343, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "W75 D4", "role": "RB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.381 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jonathan David (LW) has a clear attacking advantage against W75 D4 in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 62%. The quality gap is significant (€34M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.434 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Tani Oluwaseyi", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 8600000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.506, "defenders": [ "W75 D1" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.543, "xg_contribution": 0.1083, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "W75 D1", "role": "LB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.457 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tani Oluwaseyi (RW) is slightly favored against W75 D1 in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 54%. Projected xG contribution: 0.108 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Promise David", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 18100000, "attacker_height": 196, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.612, "defenders": [ "W75 D2", "W75 D3" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.339, "xg_contribution": 0.2032, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "W75 D2", "role": "CB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.661 }, { "player": "W75 D3", "role": "CB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.661 } ], "duel_analysis": "Promise David (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against W75 D2 and W75 D3 in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€18M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.203 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Stephen Eustaquio", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 7600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.494, "defenders": [ "W75 M2" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.417, "xg_contribution": 0.0216, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "W75 M2", "role": "CM", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.583 } ], "duel_analysis": "Stephen Eustaquio (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against W75 M2 in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.022 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ismael Koné", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "W75 M2" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.544, "xg_contribution": 0.0796, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "W75 M2", "role": "CM", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.456 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ismael Koné (CM) is slightly favored against W75 M2 in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 54%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.080 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "W75 F1", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Alphonso Davies", "Alfie Jones" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.624, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1457, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alphonso Davies", "role": "CB", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Alfie Jones", "role": "CB", "market_value": 5800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "W75 F1 (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Alphonso Davies and Alfie Jones in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €22M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.146 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "W75 M1", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Alistair Johnston" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.494, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.435, "xg_contribution": 0.0825, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alistair Johnston", "role": "RB", "market_value": 7600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.565 } ], "duel_analysis": "W75 M1 (LM) is evenly matched against Alistair Johnston in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.083 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "W75 M4", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Moise Bombito" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.496, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.394, "xg_contribution": 0.0776, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Moise Bombito", "role": "LB", "market_value": 7800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.606 } ], "duel_analysis": "W75 M4 (RM) faces tough defensive resistance against Moise Bombito in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Projected xG contribution: 0.078 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "W75 M2", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Stephen Eustaquio", "Ismael Koné" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.567, "duel_zone": "CM vs CDM + CM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.23, "xg_contribution": 0.0581, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Stephen Eustaquio", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 7600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.77 }, { "player": "Ismael Koné", "role": "CM", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.77 } ], "duel_analysis": "W75 M2 (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Stephen Eustaquio and Ismael Koné in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. Projected xG contribution: 0.058 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.564, "away_midfield_power": 0.462, "home_creative_power": 0.529, "away_creative_power": 0.503, "home_defensive_power": 0.509, "away_defensive_power": 0.393, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.549, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Ismael Koné", "Tajon Buchanan", "Stephen Eustaquio" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "W75 M1", "W75 M2", "W75 M3", "W75 M4" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.7, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 48.3, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.9, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.7, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.5, "home_throughball_threat": 2.2, "away_throughball_threat": 2.1, "key_personal_duel": "Ismael Koné vs W75 M1", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.021, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.989 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 2.769, "away_lambda": 0.724, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Jonathan David": { "opponents": [ "W75 D4" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Tani Oluwaseyi": { "opponents": [ "W75 D1" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Promise David": { "opponents": [ "W75 D2", "W75 D3" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Stephen Eustaquio": { "opponents": [ "W75 M2", "W75 M4" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ismael Koné": { "opponents": [ "W75 M2", "W75 M3" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alphonso Davies": { "opponents": [ "W75 F1" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alfie Jones": { "opponents": [ "W75 F1" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alistair Johnston": { "opponents": [ "W75 M1" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Moise Bombito": { "opponents": [ "W75 M4" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Tajon Buchanan": { "opponents": [ "W75 M1" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Dayne St. Clair": { "opponents": [ "W75 F2", "W75 F1" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "W75 D4": { "opponents": [ "Jonathan David" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "W75 D1": { "opponents": [ "Tani Oluwaseyi" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "W75 D2": { "opponents": [ "Promise David" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "W75 D3": { "opponents": [ "Promise David" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "W75 M2": { "opponents": [ "Stephen Eustaquio", "Ismael Koné" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "W75 F1": { "opponents": [ "Alphonso Davies", "Alfie Jones" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "W75 M1": { "opponents": [ "Alistair Johnston", "Tajon Buchanan" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "W75 M4": { "opponents": [ "Moise Bombito", "Stephen Eustaquio" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "W75 M3": { "opponents": [ "Ismael Koné" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "W75 G1": { "opponents": [ "Jonathan David", "Tani Oluwaseyi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "W75 F2": { "opponents": [ "Alphonso Davies", "Moise Bombito" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Ismael Koné vs W75 M1 will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.85, Away: 0.36. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0005, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0086, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9913, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9698, "home_midfield_factor": 1.021, "away_midfield_factor": 0.989, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5793, "away_avg_quality": 0.4374, "avg_quality_gap": 0.1418, "squad_value_gap_log": 5.0968, "top5_value_gap_log": 4.8371, "attack_value_gap_log": 4.6376, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.5276, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.95, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.6, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0531, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.106, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.5276, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1369, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9572, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 2.436, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 0.756, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 2.4361, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.756, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 2.769, "final_away_lambda": 0.724 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-06-30T04:35:55Z" }