{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Mexico", "away_team": "W80", "tournament": "World Championship", "date": "20260705", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-4-2" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1234, "match_resolution": "penalties_if_level", "predicted_winner": "Mexico", "tiebreaker": { "applies": true, "method": "penalties_if_level", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2601, "shootout_home_win_probability": 0.5578, "shootout_away_win_probability": 0.4422, "penalty_home_goals": 5, "penalty_away_goals": 4, "penalty_score": "5-4", "penalty_winner": "Mexico", "penalty_winner_goals": 5, "penalty_loser_goals": 4, "penalty_result": "Mexico wins 5-4 on penalties", "home_advance_probability": 0.6371, "away_advance_probability": 0.3629, "projected_winner": "Mexico", "projected_winner_probability": 0.6371, "final_score_after_penalties": "1-1 (Mexico wins 5-4 on penalties)", "reason": "Knockout match: a tied scoreline remains possible, then the advancing team is projected through penalties." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1234 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1218 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0931 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0929 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0819 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0819, "0-1": 0.0797, "0-2": 0.0402, "0-3": 0.0134, "0-4": 0.0033, "0-5": 0.0007, "1-0": 0.1218, "1-1": 0.1234, "1-2": 0.0611, "1-3": 0.0203, "1-4": 0.0051, "1-5": 0.001, "2-0": 0.0931, "2-1": 0.0929, "2-2": 0.0463, "2-3": 0.0154, "2-4": 0.0038, "2-5": 0.0008, "3-0": 0.0471, "3-1": 0.047, "3-2": 0.0234, "3-3": 0.0078, "3-4": 0.0019, "4-0": 0.0179, "4-1": 0.0178, "4-2": 0.0089, "4-3": 0.003, "4-4": 0.0007, "5-0": 0.0054, "5-1": 0.0054, "5-2": 0.0027, "5-3": 0.0009, "6-0": 0.0014, "6-1": 0.0014, "6-2": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.492, "draw": 0.2601, "away_win": 0.2478 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4599, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5401, "btts_yes": 0.4937, "btts_no": 0.5063, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3688, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2193 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 88.99, "MCR": 86.06, "ATR": 88.61, "GK": 89.99 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.8, "MCR": 6.9, "ATR": 6.9, "GK": 6.8 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Mexico vs W80. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 6 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Julián Quiñones, W80 F1", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Edson Álvarez vs W80 M1 will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.33, Away: 0.58. Home danger zone: Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.74, "home_lambda": 1.597, "away_lambda": 1.05 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.492, "draw": 0.2601, "away_win": 0.2478 }, "favorite": "Mexico", "favorite_win_probability": 0.492, "fair_spread": 0.547, "fair_total": 2.647, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Mexico", "estimate": 1.597, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "W80", "estimate": 1.05, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4599, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4937, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Mexico", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3688, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "W80", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2193, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Julián Quiñones (Mexico)", "estimate": 0.5237, "probability": 0.3183, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "W80 F1 (W80)", "estimate": 0.1852, "probability": 0.2891, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Gilberto Mora (Mexico)", "estimate": 0.1746, "probability": 0.2684, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "W80 M1 (W80)", "estimate": 0.126, "probability": 0.2047, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.647, "expected_total_shots": 24, "expected_total_passes": 829, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.3, "possession_home_pct": 51.9, "possession_away_pct": 48.1, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Mexico", "favorite_win_probability": 0.492, "script": "Mexico is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.55 goals and fair total 2.65.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; W80 must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Mexico lead likely shifts toward control and counters; if level after extra time, penalties are live; Mexico projects as the advancing side at 63.7% overall advancement probability with 26.0% draw pressure." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "W80 chance creation leans on W80 F1 against Erik Lira, Johan Vásquez in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Mexico: starters carry the main goal usage through Julián Quiñones; bench watchlist: Obed Vargas, Roberto Alvarado, Raúl Jiménez.", "W80: starters carry the main goal usage through W80 F1; bench watchlist: W80 SUB F6, W80 SUB F7, W80 SUB M4.", "Assist usage should flow through Alexis Vega, W80 M1; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Mexico tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.32 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If W80 is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; if level after extra time, penalties are live; Mexico projects as the advancing side at 63.7% overall advancement probability with 26.0% draw pressure." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Mexico.", "W80 wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Mexico": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "Raúl Rangel": { "player_id": 990408, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 190, "market_value": 5800000, "stats": { "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.3072, "rating": 89.9895, "minutes": 86, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 17, "accurate_long_balls": 8, "touches": 35, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 1.4874, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 8.6765, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "expected_saves": 1.23, "high_pressure_saves": 0.47, "shots_faced": 2.6, "opponent_faced": "W80 F1, W80 F2", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 12813001, "match_date": "2026-07-01", "home_team": "Mexico", "away_team": "Ecuador", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Mexico", "opponent": "Ecuador", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 24, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.6306 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186732, "match_date": "2026-06-25", "home_team": "Czechia", "away_team": "Mexico", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Mexico", "opponent": "Czechia", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 18, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.1329 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186490, "match_date": "2026-06-19", "home_team": "Mexico", "away_team": "South Korea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Mexico", "opponent": "South Korea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0015, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 12, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.7644 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186710, "match_date": "2026-06-11", "home_team": "Mexico", "away_team": "South Africa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Mexico", "opponent": "South Africa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 26, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.1287 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 485, "combined_rank_score": 227.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 242.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.9895, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Raúl Rangel", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Morten Hjulmand", "ranking": 480 }, { "player_name": "Lee Jong-Eon", "ranking": 481 }, { "player_name": "Oussama Idrissi", "ranking": 482 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Bontempo", "ranking": 483 }, { "player_name": "Michel Diaz", "ranking": 484 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Paulo Henrique", "ranking": 486 }, { "player_name": "Sulemana", "ranking": 487 }, { "player_name": "Elías Montiel", "ranking": 488 }, { "player_name": "Matheus Martins", "ranking": 489 }, { "player_name": "Renato Nhaga", "ranking": 490 } ] } } }, "Erik Lira": { "player_id": 944068, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 172, "market_value": 13200000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "rating": 90.8191, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 32, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.8, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.603, "opponent_faced": "W80 M1", "pressing_zone": "LM vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LM vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0116, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0086, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 12813001, "match_date": "2026-07-01", "home_team": "Mexico", "away_team": "Ecuador", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Mexico", "opponent": "Ecuador", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0389, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186490, "match_date": "2026-06-19", "home_team": "Mexico", "away_team": "South Korea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Mexico", "opponent": "South Korea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 41, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186710, "match_date": "2026-06-11", "home_team": "Mexico", "away_team": "South Africa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Mexico", "opponent": "South Africa", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 7.4, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15239049, "match_date": "2026-04-27", "home_team": "Cruz Azul", "away_team": "Club Necaxa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Cruz Azul", "opponent": "Club Necaxa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0102, "expected_assists": 0.0092, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 56, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Liga MX, Clausura", "league_id": "11620", "league_slug": "liga-mx-clausura", "league_country": "Mexico", "season_id": "87699", "season_name": "Liga MX, Clausura 2026", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 215, "combined_rank_score": 159.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 173.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.8191, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Erik Lira", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ruslanbek Jiyanov", "ranking": 210 }, { "player_name": "Jovan Đokić", "ranking": 211 }, { "player_name": "Marco Carnesecchi", "ranking": 212 }, { "player_name": "Renzo Malanca", "ranking": 213 }, { "player_name": "Jeremías Ledesma", "ranking": 214 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jordan Pickford", "ranking": 216 }, { "player_name": "Fagner", "ranking": 217 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Carvalho", "ranking": 218 }, { "player_name": "Fabián Ruiz", "ranking": 219 }, { "player_name": "James Maddison", "ranking": 220 } ] } } }, "Johan Vásquez": { "player_id": 889785, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 185, "market_value": 12200000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "rating": 82.1926, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 67, "accurate_pass": 59, "duels_won": 7, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 45, "accurate_own_half_passes": 43, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 81, "possession_lost": 8.9874, "dispossessed": 1.0144, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 3, "blocks": 3, "goal_rate": 0.5625, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1382, "expected_assists": 0.0203, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.1826, "ball_carries": 20, "total_progression": 104, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "W80 F1", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0598, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0153, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 12813001, "match_date": "2026-07-01", "home_team": "Mexico", "away_team": "Ecuador", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Mexico", "opponent": "Ecuador", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.101, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 44, "accurate_pass": 38, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186490, "match_date": "2026-06-19", "home_team": "Mexico", "away_team": "South Korea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Mexico", "opponent": "South Korea", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 47, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186710, "match_date": "2026-06-11", "home_team": "Mexico", "away_team": "South Africa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Mexico", "opponent": "South Africa", 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"height": 180, "market_value": 0, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.2763, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0481, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "W80 SUB F6", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } }, "W80 SUB F7": { "player_id": 52683, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 0, "height": 180, "market_value": 0, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.2763, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0481, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "W80 SUB F7", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } } }, "substitutes": { "W80 SUB F6": { "player_id": 52682, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 0, "height": 180, "market_value": 0, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.2763, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0481, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "W80 SUB F6", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } }, "W80 SUB F7": { "player_id": 52683, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 0, "height": 180, "market_value": 0, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0807, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.2763, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0481, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "W80 SUB F7", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } }, "W80 SUB M4": { "player_id": 52680, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 0, "height": 180, "market_value": 0, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0308, "expected_goals": 0.0252, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 1.9775, "dispossessed": 0.7, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0146, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0132, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 18, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "W80 SUB M4", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.05, "expected_assists": 0.92, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 475, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 18, "avg_rating": 6.85, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Santiago Giménez", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 18600000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.617, "defenders": [ "W80 D2", "W80 D3" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.289, "xg_contribution": 0.0874, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "W80 D2", "role": "CB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.711 }, { "player": "W80 D3", "role": "CB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.711 } ], "duel_analysis": "Santiago Giménez (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against W80 D2 and W80 D3 in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€19M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.087 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Armando González", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 16000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.59, "defenders": [ "W80 D2", "W80 M2" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.345, "xg_contribution": 0.0777, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "W80 D2", "role": "CB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.655 }, { "player": "W80 M2", "role": "CM", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.655 } ], "duel_analysis": "Armando González (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against W80 D2 and W80 M2 in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€16M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.078 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Gilberto Mora", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 11000000, "attacker_height": 166, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.534, "defenders": [ "W80 D4" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.388, "xg_contribution": 0.0442, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.7, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "W80 D4", "role": "RB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.612 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gilberto Mora (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against W80 D4 in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Projected xG contribution: 0.044 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Alexis Vega", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 7700000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.495, "defenders": [ "W80 D1" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.394, "xg_contribution": 0.0963, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "W80 D1", "role": "LB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.606 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alexis Vega (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against W80 D1 in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Projected xG contribution: 0.096 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Edson Álvarez", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 14600000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.575, "defenders": [ "W80 M2" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.522, "xg_contribution": 0.024, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "W80 M2", "role": "CM", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.478 } ], "duel_analysis": "Edson Álvarez (CM) is slightly favored against W80 M2 in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. Projected xG contribution: 0.024 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "W80 M1", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Erik Lira" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.559, "duel_zone": "LM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.397, "xg_contribution": 0.0781, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Erik Lira", "role": "CB", "market_value": 13200000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.603 } ], "duel_analysis": "W80 M1 (LM) faces tough defensive resistance against Erik Lira in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.078 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "W80 M2", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Edson Álvarez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.575, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.318, "xg_contribution": 0.0687, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Edson Álvarez", "role": "CM", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.682 } ], "duel_analysis": "W80 M2 (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Edson Álvarez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 32%. Projected xG contribution: 0.069 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "W80 M3", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Edson Álvarez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.575, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.318, "xg_contribution": 0.0687, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Edson Álvarez", "role": "CM", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.682 } ], "duel_analysis": "W80 M3 (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Edson Álvarez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 32%. Projected xG contribution: 0.069 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "W80 M4", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Erik Lira" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.559, "duel_zone": "RM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.397, "xg_contribution": 0.0781, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Erik Lira", "role": "CB", "market_value": 13200000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.603 } ], "duel_analysis": "W80 M4 (RM) faces tough defensive resistance against Erik Lira in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.078 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "W80 F1", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Erik Lira", "Johan Vásquez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.554, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1457, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Erik Lira", "role": "CB", "market_value": 13200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Johan Vásquez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 12200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "W80 F1 (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Erik Lira and Johan Vásquez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.146 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "W80 F2", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Erik Lira", "Johan Vásquez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.554, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1457, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Erik Lira", "role": "CB", "market_value": 13200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Johan Vásquez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 12200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "W80 F2 (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Erik Lira and Johan Vásquez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.146 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.559, "away_midfield_power": 0.462, "home_creative_power": 0.557, "away_creative_power": 0.503, "home_defensive_power": 0.551, "away_defensive_power": 0.393, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.547, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Edson Álvarez", "Gilberto Mora", "Álvaro Fidalgo", "Alexis Vega" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "W80 M1", "W80 M2", "W80 M3", "W80 M4" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 48.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.1, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.8, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.5, "home_throughball_threat": 2.3, "away_throughball_threat": 2.1, "key_personal_duel": "Edson Álvarez vs W80 M1", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.023, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.986 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.04, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.04, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.597, "away_lambda": 1.05, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Santiago Giménez": { "opponents": [ "W80 D2", "W80 D3" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Armando González": { "opponents": [ "W80 D2", "W80 M2" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Gilberto Mora": { "opponents": [ "W80 D4", "W80 M1" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alexis Vega": { "opponents": [ "W80 D1", "W80 M4" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Edson Álvarez": { "opponents": [ "W80 M2", "W80 M3" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Erik Lira": { "opponents": [ "W80 M1", "W80 M4", "W80 F1", "W80 F2" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Johan Vásquez": { "opponents": [ "W80 F1", "W80 F2" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Álvaro Fidalgo": { "opponents": [ "W80 M3" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Raúl Rangel": { "opponents": [ "W80 F1", "W80 F2" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "César Montes": { "opponents": [ "W80 F1" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Julián Quiñones": { "opponents": [ "W80 D1", "W80 D3" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "W80 D2": { "opponents": [ "Santiago Giménez", "Armando González" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "W80 D3": { "opponents": [ "Santiago Giménez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "W80 M2": { "opponents": [ "Armando González", "Edson Álvarez" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "W80 D4": { "opponents": [ "Gilberto Mora" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "W80 D1": { "opponents": [ "Alexis Vega" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "W80 M1": { "opponents": [ "Erik Lira", "Gilberto Mora" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "W80 M3": { "opponents": [ "Edson Álvarez", "Álvaro Fidalgo" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "W80 M4": { "opponents": [ "Erik Lira", "Alexis Vega" ], "primary_zone": "RM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "W80 F1": { "opponents": [ "Erik Lira", "Johan Vásquez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "W80 F2": { "opponents": [ "Erik Lira", "Johan Vásquez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "W80 G1": { "opponents": [ "Julián Quiñones", "Santiago Giménez" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Edson Álvarez vs W80 M1 will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.33, Away: 0.58. Home danger zone: Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0005, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9965, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.081, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9913, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9783, "home_midfield_factor": 1.023, "away_midfield_factor": 0.986, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5483, "away_avg_quality": 0.4374, "avg_quality_gap": 0.1109, "squad_value_gap_log": 4.8211, "top5_value_gap_log": 4.3255, "attack_value_gap_log": 4.5098, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.6852, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.95, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.6, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0662, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.106, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.6852, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1763, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9415, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 1.358, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 0.756, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.05, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.597, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.712, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.3582, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.756, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 1.597, "final_away_lambda": 1.05 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-07-04T13:31:11Z" }