{ "match_info": { "home_team": "USA", "away_team": "Belgium", "tournament": "World Championship", "date": "20260706", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1373, "match_resolution": "penalties_if_level", "predicted_winner": "USA", "tiebreaker": { "applies": true, "method": "penalties_if_level", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.3007, "shootout_home_win_probability": 0.5208, "shootout_away_win_probability": 0.4792, "penalty_home_goals": 6, "penalty_away_goals": 5, "penalty_score": "6-5", "penalty_winner": "USA", "penalty_winner_goals": 6, "penalty_loser_goals": 5, "penalty_result": "USA wins 6-5 on penalties", "home_advance_probability": 0.5479, "away_advance_probability": 0.4521, "projected_winner": "USA", "projected_winner_probability": 0.5479, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Knockout match: a tied scoreline remains possible, then the advancing team is projected through penalties." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1373 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1354 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1236 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1174 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0783 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1236, "0-1": 0.1174, "0-2": 0.0575, "0-3": 0.0186, "0-4": 0.0045, "0-5": 0.0009, "1-0": 0.1373, "1-1": 0.1354, "1-2": 0.065, "1-3": 0.021, "1-4": 0.0051, "1-5": 0.001, "2-0": 0.0783, "2-1": 0.0759, "2-2": 0.0368, "2-3": 0.0119, "2-4": 0.0029, "2-5": 0.0006, "3-0": 0.0295, "3-1": 0.0286, "3-2": 0.0139, "3-3": 0.0045, "3-4": 0.0011, "4-0": 0.0084, "4-1": 0.0081, "4-2": 0.0039, "4-3": 0.0013, "5-0": 0.0019, "5-1": 0.0018, "5-2": 0.0009 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3913, "draw": 0.3007, "away_win": 0.308 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3505, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6495, "btts_yes": 0.4216, "btts_no": 0.5784, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3795, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3226 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 84.95, "MCR": 86.93, "ATR": 87.68, "GK": 92.45 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 84.05, "MCR": 89.81, "ATR": 90.02, "GK": 95.99 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for USA vs Belgium. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Malik Tillman", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Weston McKennie vs Jérémy Doku will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.68, Away: 0.41. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.7, "home_lambda": 1.191, "away_lambda": 1.02 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3913, "draw": 0.3007, "away_win": 0.308 }, "favorite": "USA", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3913, "fair_spread": 0.171, "fair_total": 2.211, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "USA", "estimate": 1.191, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Belgium", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3505, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4216, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "USA", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3795, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Belgium", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3226, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Chris Richards (USA)", "estimate": 0.2535, "probability": 0.0951, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Arthur Theate (Belgium)", "estimate": 0.2087, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Weston McKennie (USA)", "estimate": 0.2353, "probability": 0.334, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Jérémy Doku (Belgium)", "estimate": 0.2361, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.211, "expected_total_shots": 26, "expected_total_passes": 883, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.4, "possession_home_pct": 50.6, "possession_away_pct": 49.4, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "USA", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3913, "script": "USA is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.17 goals and fair total 2.21.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 13 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Belgium must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A USA lead likely shifts toward control and counters; if level after extra time, penalties are live; USA projects as the advancing side at 54.8% overall advancement probability with 30.1% draw pressure." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "USA chance creation leans on Folarin Balogun against Arthur Theate, Brandon Mechele in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "USA: starters carry the main goal usage through Malik Tillman; bench watchlist: Ricardo Pepi, Brenden Aaronson, Timothy Weah.", "Belgium: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Amadou Onana, Matías Fernández-Pardo, Charles De Ketelaere.", "Assist usage should flow through Weston McKennie; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: USA tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 13 total first-half shots, and 1.11 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Belgium is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; if level after extra time, penalties are live; USA projects as the advancing side at 54.8% overall advancement probability with 30.1% draw pressure." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for USA.", "Belgium wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "USA": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Folarin Balogun": { "player_id": 934237, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 179, "market_value": 36000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.236, "goal_rate": 0.0018, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0244, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 83.9194, "minutes": 77, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 8, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 25, "possession_lost": 9.4276, "dispossessed": 1.0774, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.7003, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 22, "progressive_carries": 2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.278, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Arthur Theate, Brandon Mechele", "opponent_faced": "Arthur Theate, Brandon Mechele", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2166, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0299, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 12812992, "match_date": "2026-07-02", "home_team": "USA", "away_team": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "USA", "opponent": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "stats": { "minutes": 64, "rating": 6.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5653, "expected_assists": 0.0126, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186878, "match_date": "2026-06-19", "home_team": "USA", "away_team": "Australia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "USA", "opponent": "Australia", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2182, "expected_assists": 0.0181, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 9, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186873, "match_date": "2026-06-13", "home_team": "USA", "away_team": "Paraguay", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "USA", "opponent": "Paraguay", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 9.0, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4688, "expected_assists": 0.0751, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14061905, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "RC Strasbourg", "away_team": "AS Monaco", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "AS Monaco", "opponent": "RC Strasbourg", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2494, "expected_assists": 0.0364, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14064521, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "AS Monaco", "away_team": "Lille", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "AS Monaco", "opponent": "Lille", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1118, "expected_assists": 0.0048, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 11886376, "match_date": "2024-07-02", "home_team": "USA", "away_team": "Uruguay", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "USA", "opponent": "Uruguay", "stats": { "minutes": 41, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0072, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" }, { "match_id": 11886372, "match_date": "2024-06-27", "home_team": "Panama", "away_team": "USA", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "USA", "opponent": "Panama", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.106, "expected_assists": 0.0124, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" }, { "match_id": 11886363, "match_date": "2024-06-23", "home_team": "USA", "away_team": "Bolivia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "USA", "opponent": "Bolivia", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 7.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2334, "expected_assists": 0.002, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 15946, "combined_rank_score": 929.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 318.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 1540.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.9194, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Folarin Balogun", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Milan Roganović", "ranking": 15941 }, { "player_name": "Giorgi Guliashvili", "ranking": 15942 }, { "player_name": "Or Blorian", "ranking": 15943 }, { "player_name": "Juan Angulo", "ranking": 15944 }, { "player_name": "Mattias Svanberg", "ranking": 15945 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Oleg Reabciuk", "ranking": 15947 }, { "player_name": "Ethan Jolley", "ranking": 15948 }, { "player_name": "Giacomo Benvenuti", "ranking": 15949 }, { "player_name": "Matthis Abline", "ranking": 15950 }, { "player_name": "Hans Hateboer", "ranking": 15951 } ] } } }, "Christian Pulišić": { "player_id": 817957, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 177, "market_value": 43000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0871, "goal_rate": 0.0005, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.137, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 91.4439, "minutes": 95, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 6, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 54, "possession_lost": 19.3244, "dispossessed": 1.8181, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 92, "progressive_carries": 3, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.5, "duel_win_rate": 0.584, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Timothy Castagne", "opponent_faced": "Timothy Castagne", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0795, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1492, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 12812992, "match_date": "2026-07-02", "home_team": "USA", "away_team": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "USA", "opponent": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "stats": { "minutes": 88, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0869, "expected_assists": 0.019, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186887, "match_date": "2026-06-26", "home_team": "Türkiye", "away_team": "USA", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "USA", "opponent": "Türkiye", "stats": { "minutes": 32, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5814, "expected_assists": 0.2754, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186873, "match_date": "2026-06-13", "home_team": "USA", "away_team": "Paraguay", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "USA", "opponent": "Paraguay", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.6, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1225, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 13980071, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "AC Milan", "away_team": "Cagliari", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "AC Milan", "opponent": "Cagliari", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2174, "expected_assists": 0.0224, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Serie A", "league_id": "23", "league_slug": "serie-a", "league_country": "Italy", "season_id": "76457", "season_name": "Serie A 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13980068, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Genoa", "away_team": "AC Milan", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "AC Milan", "opponent": "Genoa", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.3454, "expected_assists": 0.0527, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, 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"opponent": "New Zealand", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0524, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186837, "match_date": "2026-06-15", "home_team": "Belgium", "away_team": "Egypt", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Belgium", "opponent": "Egypt", "stats": { "minutes": 56, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2263, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 31, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14023961, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632626, "match_date": "2026-05-20", "home_team": "SC Freiburg", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "SC Freiburg", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.083, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632623, "match_date": "2026-04-30", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 55, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0137, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632621, "match_date": "2026-04-16", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Bologna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Bologna", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 7.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0075, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632617, "match_date": "2026-04-09", "home_team": "Bologna", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Bologna", "stats": { "minutes": 80, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0074, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 26, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631843, "match_date": "2026-03-19", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Lille", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Lille", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0919, "expected_assists": 0.0119, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 46, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631836, "match_date": "2026-03-12", "home_team": "Lille", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Lille", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0576, "expected_assists": 0.12, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 61, "accurate_pass": 57, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 14350, "combined_rank_score": 599.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 398.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.92, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 801.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.398, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Amadou Onana", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Luis Caicedo", "ranking": 14345 }, { "player_name": "Guillaume Restes", "ranking": 14346 }, { "player_name": "Luka Sučić", "ranking": 14347 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Hall", "ranking": 14348 }, { "player_name": "Roméo Lavia", "ranking": 14349 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Min-jae Kim", "ranking": 14351 }, { "player_name": "Jasper Cillessen", "ranking": 14352 }, { "player_name": "Alistair Johnston", "ranking": 14353 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Hernández", "ranking": 14354 }, { "player_name": "Yacine Adli", "ranking": 14355 } ] } } }, "Alexis Saelemaekers": { "player_id": 901891, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 56, "height": 180, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0255, "rating": 86.1822, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 3.8589, "dispossessed": 1.0558, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.2693, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1293, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 15, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.543, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.96, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.685, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186822, "match_date": "2026-06-27", "home_team": "New Zealand", "away_team": "Belgium", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Belgium", "opponent": "New Zealand", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1, "expected_assists": 0.1932, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186499, "match_date": "2026-06-21", "home_team": "Belgium", "away_team": "Iran", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Belgium", "opponent": "Iran", "stats": { "minutes": 58, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0822, "expected_assists": 0.0639, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 13980071, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "AC Milan", "away_team": "Cagliari", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "AC Milan", "opponent": "Cagliari", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2812, "expected_assists": 0.1399, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Serie A", "league_id": "23", "league_slug": "serie-a", "league_country": "Italy", "season_id": "76457", "season_name": "Serie A 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13980096, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "AC Milan", "away_team": "Atalanta", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "AC Milan", "opponent": "Atalanta", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0251, "expected_assists": 0.1932, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 31, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Serie A", "league_id": "23", "league_slug": "serie-a", "league_country": "Italy", "season_id": "76457", "season_name": "Serie A 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13233695, "match_date": "2025-11-18", "home_team": "Belgium", "away_team": "Liechtenstein", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Belgium", "opponent": "Liechtenstein", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 8.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 61, "accurate_pass": 53, "key_pass": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 10208, "combined_rank_score": 465.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 90.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.4714, "sofascore_appearances": 7.0, "fifa_rank": 840.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.1822, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Alexis Saelemaekers", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Sebastián Cáceres", "ranking": 10203 }, { "player_name": "Antonio Gutemberg", "ranking": 10204 }, { "player_name": "Denis Zakaria", "ranking": 10205 }, { "player_name": "Gerónimo Patritti", "ranking": 10206 }, { "player_name": "Sander Berge", "ranking": 10207 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Rui Silva", "ranking": 10209 }, { "player_name": "Johnny Cardoso", "ranking": 10210 }, { "player_name": "Omar Carabalí", "ranking": 10211 }, { "player_name": "Mauro Goicoechea", "ranking": 10212 }, { "player_name": "Ahmed Nader El Sayed", "ranking": 10213 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 1.02, "total_shots": 15, "shots_on_target": 7, "total_passes": 466, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 88.31, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.4, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Malik Tillman", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Thomas Meunier" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.417, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.588, "xg_contribution": 0.1595, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Thomas Meunier", "role": "RB", "market_value": 1400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.412 } ], "duel_analysis": "Malik Tillman (LW) is slightly favored against Thomas Meunier in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 59%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €1M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.159 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Christian Pulišić", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 43000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.796, "defenders": [ "Timothy Castagne" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.494, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.584, "xg_contribution": 0.0832, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Timothy Castagne", "role": "LB", "market_value": 7600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.416 } ], "duel_analysis": "Christian Pulišić (RW) is slightly favored against Timothy Castagne in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 58%. The quality gap is significant (€43M vs €8M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.083 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Sergiño Dest", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 17200000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.603, "defenders": [ "Nicolas Raskin", "Youri Tielemans" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.636, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.205, "xg_contribution": 0.1353, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nicolas Raskin", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 10900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.795 }, { "player": "Youri Tielemans", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.795 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sergiño Dest (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Nicolas Raskin and Youri Tielemans in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. Projected xG contribution: 0.135 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Folarin Balogun", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 36000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.758, "defenders": [ "Arthur Theate", "Brandon Mechele" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.514, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.278, "xg_contribution": 0.2254, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Arthur Theate", "role": "CB", "market_value": 16500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.722 }, { "player": "Brandon Mechele", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.722 } ], "duel_analysis": "Folarin Balogun (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Arthur Theate and Brandon Mechele in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€36M vs €10M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.225 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Weston McKennie", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Nicolas Raskin" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.533, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.51, "xg_contribution": 0.0811, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nicolas Raskin", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 10900000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.49 } ], "duel_analysis": "Weston McKennie (CDM) is slightly favored against Nicolas Raskin in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. The quality gap is significant (€31M vs €11M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.081 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Kevin De Bruyne", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 8300000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.502, "defenders": [ "Tim Ream" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.402, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.509, "xg_contribution": 0.1205, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Tim Ream", "role": "RB", "market_value": 145000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.491 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kevin De Bruyne (LW) is slightly favored against Tim Ream in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. Projected xG contribution: 0.121 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Leandro Trossard", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 19300000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.624, "defenders": [ "Antonee Robinson" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.416, "xg_contribution": 0.0345, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Antonee Robinson", "role": "LB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.584 } ], "duel_analysis": "Leandro Trossard (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Antonee Robinson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.035 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Jérémy Doku", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 70000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.871, "defenders": [ "Weston McKennie", "Tyler Adams" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.705, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.296, "xg_contribution": 0.0463, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Weston McKennie", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.704 }, { "player": "Tyler Adams", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.704 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jérémy Doku (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Weston McKennie and Tyler Adams in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€70M vs €28M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.046 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Romelu Lukaku", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 5800000, "attacker_height": 191, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.472, "defenders": [ "Chris Richards", "Alexander Freeman" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.559, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1548, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Chris Richards", "role": "CB", "market_value": 25000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Alexander Freeman", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Romelu Lukaku (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Chris Richards and Alexander Freeman in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.155 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Nicolas Raskin", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 10900000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.533, "defenders": [ "Weston McKennie" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.725, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.33, "xg_contribution": 0.0504, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Weston McKennie", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.67 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nicolas Raskin (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Weston McKennie in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€11M vs €31M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.050 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.702, "away_midfield_power": 0.686, "home_creative_power": 0.712, "away_creative_power": 0.76, "home_defensive_power": 0.689, "away_defensive_power": 0.583, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.506, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Weston McKennie", "Tyler Adams", "Malik Tillman" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Jérémy Doku", "Kevin De Bruyne", "Nicolas Raskin", "Youri Tielemans" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.6, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.4, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.0, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.8, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.1, "home_throughball_threat": 2.7, "away_throughball_threat": 2.9, "key_personal_duel": "Weston McKennie vs Jérémy Doku", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.008, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.002 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.191, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Malik Tillman": { "opponents": [ "Thomas Meunier", "Youri Tielemans" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Christian Pulišić": { "opponents": [ "Timothy Castagne" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Sergiño Dest": { "opponents": [ "Nicolas Raskin", "Youri Tielemans" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Folarin Balogun": { "opponents": [ "Arthur Theate", "Brandon Mechele" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Weston McKennie": { "opponents": [ "Nicolas Raskin", "Jérémy Doku", "Kevin De Bruyne" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Tim Ream": { "opponents": [ "Kevin De Bruyne" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Antonee Robinson": { "opponents": [ "Leandro Trossard" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Tyler Adams": { "opponents": [ "Jérémy Doku", "Nicolas Raskin" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Chris Richards": { "opponents": [ "Romelu Lukaku" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alexander Freeman": { "opponents": [ "Romelu Lukaku" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Matthew Freese": { "opponents": [ "Leandro Trossard", "Romelu Lukaku" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Thomas Meunier": { "opponents": [ "Malik Tillman" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Timothy Castagne": { "opponents": [ "Christian Pulišić" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nicolas Raskin": { "opponents": [ "Sergiño Dest", "Weston McKennie", "Tyler Adams" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Youri Tielemans": { "opponents": [ "Sergiño Dest", "Malik Tillman" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Arthur Theate": { "opponents": [ "Folarin Balogun" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Brandon Mechele": { "opponents": [ "Folarin Balogun" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Kevin De Bruyne": { "opponents": [ "Tim Ream", "Weston McKennie" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Leandro Trossard": { "opponents": [ "Antonee Robinson" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jérémy Doku": { "opponents": [ "Weston McKennie", "Tyler Adams" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Romelu Lukaku": { "opponents": [ "Chris Richards", "Alexander Freeman" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Thibaut Courtois": { "opponents": [ "Christian Pulišić", "Folarin Balogun" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Weston McKennie vs Jérémy Doku will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.68, Away: 0.41. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9548, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0152, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.109, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9901, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9453, "home_midfield_factor": 1.008, "away_midfield_factor": 1.002, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6449, "away_avg_quality": 0.5681, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0768, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.2681, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.08, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.0951, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0976, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.2148, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1367, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0588, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0511, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.191, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.75, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.1908, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.7501, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 1.191, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-07-06T13:30:54Z" }