{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Switzerland", "away_team": "Colombia", "tournament": "World Championship", "date": "20260707", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-3-3" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1349, "match_resolution": "penalties_if_level", "predicted_winner": "Switzerland", "tiebreaker": { "applies": true, "method": "penalties_if_level", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2891, "shootout_home_win_probability": 0.5337, "shootout_away_win_probability": 0.4663, "penalty_home_goals": 6, "penalty_away_goals": 5, "penalty_score": "6-5", "penalty_winner": "Switzerland", "penalty_winner_goals": 6, "penalty_loser_goals": 5, "penalty_result": "Switzerland wins 6-5 on penalties", "home_advance_probability": 0.5782, "away_advance_probability": 0.4218, "projected_winner": "Switzerland", "projected_winner_probability": 0.5782, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Knockout match: a tied scoreline remains possible, then the advancing team is projected through penalties." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1349 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.133 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1107 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.105 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0846 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1107, "0-1": 0.105, "0-2": 0.0514, "0-3": 0.0166, "0-4": 0.004, "0-5": 0.0008, "1-0": 0.1349, "1-1": 0.133, "1-2": 0.0639, "1-3": 0.0206, "1-4": 0.005, "1-5": 0.001, "2-0": 0.0846, "2-1": 0.0819, "2-2": 0.0397, "2-3": 0.0128, "2-4": 0.0031, "2-5": 0.0006, "3-0": 0.035, "3-1": 0.0339, "3-2": 0.0164, "3-3": 0.0053, "3-4": 0.0013, "4-0": 0.0109, "4-1": 0.0105, "4-2": 0.0051, "4-3": 0.0016, "5-0": 0.0027, "5-1": 0.0026, "5-2": 0.0013, "6-0": 0.0006, "6-1": 0.0005 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4239, "draw": 0.2891, "away_win": 0.287 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3804, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6196, "btts_yes": 0.4426, "btts_no": 0.5574, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3795, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2886 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 84.79, "MCR": 85.31, "ATR": 84.03, "GK": 93.58 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 85.81, "MCR": 86.94, "ATR": 84.19, "GK": 88.69 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Switzerland vs Colombia. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Johan Manzambi", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Johan Manzambi vs Luis Díaz will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.11, Away: 0.80. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel." }, "confidence": 0.71, "home_lambda": 1.308, "away_lambda": 1.02 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4239, "draw": 0.2891, "away_win": 0.287 }, "favorite": "Switzerland", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4239, "fair_spread": 0.288, "fair_total": 2.328, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Switzerland", "estimate": 1.308, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Colombia", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3804, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4426, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Switzerland", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3795, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Colombia", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2886, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Breel Embolo (Switzerland)", "estimate": 0.4054, "probability": 0.1882, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Luis Díaz (Colombia)", "estimate": 0.2151, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Dan Ndoye (Switzerland)", "estimate": 0.2449, "probability": 0.2532, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Luis Díaz (Colombia)", "estimate": 0.4002, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.328, "expected_total_shots": 28, "expected_total_passes": 952, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.0, "possession_home_pct": 51.6, "possession_away_pct": 48.4, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Switzerland", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4239, "script": "Switzerland is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.29 goals and fair total 2.33.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Colombia must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Switzerland lead likely shifts toward control and counters; if level after extra time, penalties are live; Switzerland projects as the advancing side at 57.8% overall advancement probability with 28.9% draw pressure." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Switzerland chance creation leans on Breel Embolo against Johan Mojica, Jhon Lucumí in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Switzerland: starters carry the main goal usage through Johan Manzambi; bench watchlist: Ardon Jashari, Noah Okafor, Zeki Amdouni.", "Colombia: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Richard Ríos, Jhon Durán, Cucho Hernández.", "Assist usage should flow through Dan Ndoye; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Switzerland tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.16 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Colombia is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; if level after extra time, penalties are live; Switzerland projects as the advancing side at 57.8% overall advancement probability with 28.9% draw pressure." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Switzerland.", "Colombia wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Switzerland": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Gregor Kobel": { "player_id": 556866, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 193, "market_value": 41000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.3977, "rating": 93.5803, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 29, "total_long_balls": 15, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 49, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 1.6287, "aerial_won": 2, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 9.2943, "duels_won": 2, "duels_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26, "expected_saves": 1.68, "high_pressure_saves": 0.64, "shots_faced": 3.6, "opponent_faced": "Luis Díaz, Jefferson Lerma", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 12813019, "match_date": "2026-07-03", "home_team": "Switzerland", "away_team": "Algeria", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Switzerland", "opponent": "Algeria", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 26, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.2804 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186821, "match_date": "2026-06-24", "home_team": "Switzerland", "away_team": "Canada", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Switzerland", "opponent": "Canada", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 46, "accurate_pass": 40, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 1.7643 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186806, "match_date": "2026-06-18", "home_team": "Switzerland", "away_team": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Switzerland", "opponent": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 24, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.7303 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186526, "match_date": "2026-06-13", "home_team": "Qatar", "away_team": "Switzerland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Switzerland", "opponent": "Qatar", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -0.5358 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14065561, "match_date": "2026-05-16", "home_team": "SV Werder Bremen", "away_team": "Borussia Dortmund", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Borussia Dortmund", "opponent": "SV Werder Bremen", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 25, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.1778 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065245, "match_date": "2026-05-08", "home_team": "Borussia Dortmund", "away_team": "Eintracht Frankfurt", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Borussia Dortmund", "opponent": "Eintracht Frankfurt", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 29, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.0674 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065243, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Borussia M'gladbach", "away_team": "Borussia Dortmund", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Borussia Dortmund", "opponent": "Borussia M'gladbach", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 20, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.5014 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065228, "match_date": "2026-04-26", "home_team": "Borussia Dortmund", "away_team": "SC Freiburg", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Borussia Dortmund", "opponent": "SC Freiburg", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 33, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 1.2582 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13233687, "match_date": "2025-11-18", "home_team": "Kosovo", "away_team": "Switzerland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Switzerland", "opponent": "Kosovo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 29, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2049, "combined_rank_score": 288.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 473.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.85, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 103.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.5803, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Gregor Kobel", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Hyeok-chan Son", "ranking": 2044 }, { "player_name": "Alisher Odilov", "ranking": 2045 }, { "player_name": "Akmal Muzaffarov", "ranking": 2046 }, { "player_name": "Juan Viacava", "ranking": 2047 }, { "player_name": "Raniele", "ranking": 2048 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Daniel Horák", "ranking": 2050 }, { "player_name": "Sota Nakamura", "ranking": 2051 }, { "player_name": "Francesco Antonucci", "ranking": 2052 }, { "player_name": "Albert Labík", "ranking": 2053 }, { "player_name": "Mohammed Al-Thani", "ranking": 2054 } ] } } }, "Breel Embolo": { "player_id": 352296, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 185, "market_value": 13600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4054, "goal_rate": 0.0016, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.138, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 84.0276, "minutes": 73, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 25, "possession_lost": 8.0307, "dispossessed": 1.865, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 3, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.6013, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 24, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.211, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Johan Mojica, Jhon Lucumí", "opponent_faced": "Johan Mojica, Jhon Lucumí", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1882, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1064, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 12813019, "match_date": "2026-07-03", "home_team": "Switzerland", "away_team": "Algeria", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Switzerland", "opponent": "Algeria", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 6.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9984, "expected_assists": 0.0044, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 7, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186821, "match_date": "2026-06-24", "home_team": "Switzerland", "away_team": "Canada", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Switzerland", "opponent": "Canada", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 7.5, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.67, "expected_assists": 0.1182, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186806, "match_date": "2026-06-18", "home_team": "Switzerland", "away_team": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Switzerland", "opponent": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.4, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.147, "expected_assists": 0.1268, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { 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"aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.524, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.53, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 11886362, "match_date": "2024-06-28", "home_team": "Colombia", "away_team": "Costa Rica", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Colombia", "opponent": "Costa Rica", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1136, "expected_assists": 0.0078, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 16639, "combined_rank_score": 1363.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 638.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.72, "sofascore_appearances": 15.0, "fifa_rank": 2089.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.8748, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Yáser Asprilla", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kerim Mrabti", "ranking": 16634 }, { "player_name": "Dániel Gazdag", "ranking": 16635 }, { "player_name": "Johann Lepenant", "ranking": 16636 }, { "player_name": "Greg Taylor", "ranking": 16637 }, { "player_name": "Leonardo Godoy", "ranking": 16638 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Eli Junior Kroupi", "ranking": 16640 }, { "player_name": "Juanlu Sánchez", "ranking": 16641 }, { "player_name": "Pedro de la Vega", "ranking": 16642 }, { "player_name": "Giovanni Fabbian", "ranking": 16643 }, { "player_name": "Sekou Koita", "ranking": 16644 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 1.02, "total_shots": 17, "shots_on_target": 9, "total_passes": 467, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 18, "avg_rating": 86.54, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.4, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.8 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Rubén Vargas", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 11100000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.535, "defenders": [ "Gustavo Puerta" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.531, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.514, "xg_contribution": 0.1431, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gustavo Puerta", "role": "RB", "market_value": 10700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.486 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rubén Vargas (LW) is slightly favored against Gustavo Puerta in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. Projected xG contribution: 0.143 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Granit Xhaka", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 8500000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.505, "defenders": [ "Davinson Sánchez" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.595, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.431, "xg_contribution": 0.2121, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Davinson Sánchez", "role": "LB", "market_value": 16500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.569 } ], "duel_analysis": "Granit Xhaka (RW) is evenly matched against Davinson Sánchez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.212 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Dan Ndoye", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Daniel Muñoz" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.66, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.493, "xg_contribution": 0.2492, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Daniel Muñoz", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.507 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dan Ndoye (CAM) is evenly matched against Daniel Muñoz in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Projected xG contribution: 0.249 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Breel Embolo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 13600000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.564, "defenders": [ "Johan Mojica", "Jhon Lucumí" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.539, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.211, "xg_contribution": 0.3538, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Johan Mojica", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.789 }, { "player": "Jhon Lucumí", "role": "CB", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.789 } ], "duel_analysis": "Breel Embolo (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Johan Mojica and Jhon Lucumí in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. Projected xG contribution: 0.354 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Johan Manzambi", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 54000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.837, "defenders": [ "Luis Díaz" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.878, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.398, "xg_contribution": 0.1501, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Luis Díaz", "role": "CM", "market_value": 76000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.602 } ], "duel_analysis": "Johan Manzambi (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Luis Díaz in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. The quality gap is significant (€54M vs €76M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.150 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Luis Javier Suárez", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Remo Freuler" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.439, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.611, "xg_contribution": 0.2101, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Remo Freuler", "role": "RB", "market_value": 3100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.389 } ], "duel_analysis": "Luis Javier Suárez (LW) has a clear attacking advantage against Remo Freuler in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 61%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €3M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.210 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Jefferson Lerma", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 5500000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.468, "defenders": [ "Ricardo Rodríguez" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.419, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.49, "xg_contribution": 0.2199, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ricardo Rodríguez", "role": "LB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.51 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jefferson Lerma (RW) is evenly matched against Ricardo Rodríguez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Projected xG contribution: 0.220 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "James Rodríguez", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 1500000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.419, "defenders": [ "Manuel Akanji", "Nico Elvedi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.537, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0441, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Manuel Akanji", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Nico Elvedi", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "James Rodríguez (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Manuel Akanji and Nico Elvedi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.044 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Daniel Muñoz", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Johan Manzambi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.837, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.344, "xg_contribution": 0.0525, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Johan Manzambi", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.656 } ], "duel_analysis": "Daniel Muñoz (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Johan Manzambi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€23M vs €54M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.053 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Luis Díaz", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 76000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.878, "defenders": [ "Johan Manzambi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.837, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.452, "xg_contribution": 0.275, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Johan Manzambi", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.548 } ], "duel_analysis": "Luis Díaz (CM) is evenly matched against Johan Manzambi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. The quality gap is significant (€76M vs €54M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.275 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.696, "away_midfield_power": 0.666, "home_creative_power": 0.596, "away_creative_power": 0.6, "home_defensive_power": 0.727, "away_defensive_power": 0.451, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.511, "home_midfield_count": 6, "away_midfield_count": 6, "home_midfield_players": [ "Rubén Vargas", "Johan Manzambi", "Dan Ndoye", "Granit Xhaka", "Remo Freuler", "Denis Zakaria" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "James Rodríguez", "Jefferson Lerma", "Jhon Arias", "Gustavo Puerta", "Daniel Muñoz", "Luis Díaz" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.6, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 48.4, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.2, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.8, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.1, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.1, "home_throughball_threat": 2.4, "away_throughball_threat": 2.4, "key_personal_duel": "Johan Manzambi vs Luis Díaz", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.012, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.991 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.03, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.308, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Rubén Vargas": { "opponents": [ "Gustavo Puerta" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Granit Xhaka": { "opponents": [ "Davinson Sánchez", "James Rodríguez" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dan Ndoye": { "opponents": [ "Daniel Muñoz" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Breel Embolo": { "opponents": [ "Johan Mojica", "Jhon Lucumí" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Johan Manzambi": { "opponents": [ "Luis Díaz", "Daniel Muñoz" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Remo Freuler": { "opponents": [ "Luis Javier Suárez", "Jefferson Lerma" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ricardo Rodríguez": { "opponents": [ "Jefferson Lerma" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Manuel Akanji": { "opponents": [ "James Rodríguez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nico Elvedi": { "opponents": [ "James Rodríguez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Denis Zakaria": { "opponents": [ "Jhon Arias" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Gregor Kobel": { "opponents": [ "Luis Javier Suárez", "Luis Díaz" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Gustavo Puerta": { "opponents": [ "Rubén Vargas" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Davinson Sánchez": { "opponents": [ "Granit Xhaka" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Daniel Muñoz": { "opponents": [ "Dan Ndoye", "Johan Manzambi" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Johan Mojica": { "opponents": [ "Breel Embolo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jhon Lucumí": { "opponents": [ "Breel Embolo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Luis Díaz": { "opponents": [ "Johan Manzambi" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Luis Javier Suárez": { "opponents": [ "Remo Freuler" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jefferson Lerma": { "opponents": [ "Ricardo Rodríguez", "Remo Freuler" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "James Rodríguez": { "opponents": [ "Manuel Akanji", "Nico Elvedi", "Granit Xhaka" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jhon Arias": { "opponents": [ "Denis Zakaria" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Camilo Vargas": { "opponents": [ "Breel Embolo", "Dan Ndoye" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Johan Manzambi vs Luis Díaz will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.11, Away: 0.80. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0236, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8678, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1007, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0757, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9805, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.997, "home_midfield_factor": 1.012, "away_midfield_factor": 0.991, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.5784, "away_avg_quality": 0.5913, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0129, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.1486, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.1563, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.0765, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0292, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0202, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0977, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.308, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.014, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.3082, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.0137, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 1.308, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-07-07T13:31:16Z" }