{ "match_info": { "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Morocco", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260709", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1182, "match_resolution": "penalties_if_level", "predicted_winner": "France", "tiebreaker": { "applies": true, "method": "penalties_if_level", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2484, "shootout_home_win_probability": 0.568, "shootout_away_win_probability": 0.432, "penalty_home_goals": 5, "penalty_away_goals": 4, "penalty_score": "5-4", "penalty_winner": "France", "penalty_winner_goals": 5, "penalty_loser_goals": 4, "penalty_result": "France wins 5-4 on penalties", "home_advance_probability": 0.6629, "away_advance_probability": 0.3371, "projected_winner": "France", "projected_winner_probability": 0.6629, "final_score_after_penalties": "1-1 (France wins 5-4 on penalties)", "reason": "Knockout match: a tied scoreline remains possible, then the advancing team is projected through penalties." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1182 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1167 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0961 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0959 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0728 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0728, "0-1": 0.0708, "0-2": 0.0358, "0-3": 0.0119, "0-4": 0.003, "0-5": 0.0006, "1-0": 0.1167, "1-1": 0.1182, "1-2": 0.0585, "1-3": 0.0194, "1-4": 0.0048, "1-5": 0.001, "2-0": 0.0961, "2-1": 0.0959, "2-2": 0.0478, "2-3": 0.0159, "2-4": 0.004, "2-5": 0.0008, "3-0": 0.0524, "3-1": 0.0522, "3-2": 0.0261, "3-3": 0.0087, "3-4": 0.0022, "4-0": 0.0214, "4-1": 0.0214, "4-2": 0.0106, "4-3": 0.0035, "4-4": 0.0009, "5-0": 0.007, "5-1": 0.007, "5-2": 0.0035, "5-3": 0.0012, "6-0": 0.0019, "6-1": 0.0019, "6-2": 0.0009 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.5218, "draw": 0.2484, "away_win": 0.2298 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4897, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5103, "btts_yes": 0.509, "btts_no": 0.491, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3688, "away_clean_sheet": 0.195 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 92.39, "MCR": 90.32, "ATR": 96.13, "GK": 94.15 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 86.47, "MCR": 83.87, "ATR": 85.07, "GK": 91.46 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for France vs Morocco. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Kylian Mbappé, Azzedine Ounahi", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Michael Olise vs Ayyoub Bouaddi will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.92, Away: 0.35. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle." }, "confidence": 0.75, "home_lambda": 1.721, "away_lambda": 1.05 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.5218, "draw": 0.2484, "away_win": 0.2298 }, "favorite": "France", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5218, "fair_spread": 0.671, "fair_total": 2.771, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "France", "estimate": 1.721, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Morocco", "estimate": 1.05, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4897, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.509, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "France", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3688, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Morocco", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.195, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Kylian Mbappé (France)", "estimate": 0.6341, "probability": 0.3207, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Issa Diop (Morocco)", "estimate": 0.4688, "probability": 0.146, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Michael Olise (France)", "estimate": 0.4213, "probability": 0.3321, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Brahim Díaz (Morocco)", "estimate": 0.1532, "probability": 0.2157, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.771, "expected_total_shots": 26, "expected_total_passes": 1019, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 17.6, "possession_home_pct": 50.9, "possession_away_pct": 49.1, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "France", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5218, "script": "France is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.67 goals and fair total 2.77.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 13 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Morocco must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A France lead likely shifts toward control and counters; if level after extra time, penalties are live; France projects as the advancing side at 66.3% overall advancement probability with 24.8% draw pressure." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "France chance creation leans on Kylian Mbappé against Issa Diop, Chadi Riad in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "France: starters carry the main goal usage through Kylian Mbappé; bench watchlist: Désiré Doué, Rayan Cherki, Aurélien Tchouaméni.", "Morocco: starters carry the main goal usage through Azzedine Ounahi; bench watchlist: Ismael Saibari, Chemsdine Talbi, Samir El Mourabet.", "Assist usage should flow through Michael Olise, Brahim Díaz; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: France tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 13 total first-half shots, and 1.39 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Morocco is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; if level after extra time, penalties are live; France projects as the advancing side at 66.3% overall advancement probability with 24.8% draw pressure." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for France.", "Morocco wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "France": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Kylian Mbappé": { "player_id": 826643, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 180, "market_value": 191000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.6341, "goal_rate": 0.0417, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1507, "key_pass": 2, "rating": 99.1419, "minutes": 86, "total_shots": 3, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 26, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 47, "possession_lost": 10.9982, "dispossessed": 2.24, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 2, "xgot": 1.1984, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 103, "progressive_carries": 5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.323, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Issa Diop, Chadi Riad", "opponent_faced": "Issa Diop, Chadi Riad", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3207, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1481, "fifa_overall": 91.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 12813010, "match_date": "2026-07-04", "home_team": "Paraguay", "away_team": "France", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "France", "opponent": "Paraguay", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.1738, "expected_assists": 0.0306, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 4, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 12812995, "match_date": "2026-06-30", "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Sweden", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "France", "opponent": "Sweden", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 9.8, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5974, "expected_assists": 0.0985, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 4, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186537, "match_date": "2026-06-26", "home_team": "Norway", "away_team": "France", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "France", "opponent": "Norway", "stats": { "minutes": 87, "rating": 7.4, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.2892, "expected_assists": 0.5773, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186769, "match_date": "2026-06-22", "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Iraq", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "France", "opponent": "Iraq", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 9.2, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.226, "expected_assists": 0.114, "total_shots": 8, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 4, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 35, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186501, "match_date": "2026-06-16", "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Senegal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "France", "opponent": "Senegal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7638, "expected_assists": 0.0209, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14083731, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2598, "expected_assists": 0.0681, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083702, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5088, "expected_assists": 0.0226, "total_shots": 5, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083649, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Oviedo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1734, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632088, "match_date": "2026-04-15", "home_team": "FC Bayern München", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "FC Bayern München", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.2395, "expected_assists": 0.3297, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632084, "match_date": "2026-04-07", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "FC Bayern München", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "FC Bayern München", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.2688, "expected_assists": 0.0745, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4, "combined_rank_score": 10.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 18.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.0545, "sofascore_appearances": 11.0, "fifa_rank": 3.0, "fifa_overall": 91.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 8.1419, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kylian Mbappé", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ryu Won-Woo", "ranking": 1 }, { "player_name": "Lamine Yamal", "ranking": 2 }, { "player_name": "Maximiliano Gutiérrez", "ranking": 3 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Erling Haaland", "ranking": 5 }, { "player_name": "Pedri", "ranking": 6 }, { "player_name": "Nico López", "ranking": 7 }, { "player_name": "Andy Vidal", "ranking": 8 }, { "player_name": "James Rodríguez", "ranking": 9 } ] } } }, "Bradley Barcola": { "player_id": 996952, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 12, "height": 182, "market_value": 68000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0068, "goal_rate": 0.3432, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0589, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 91.7946, "minutes": 47, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 24, "possession_lost": 6.4398, "dispossessed": 1.3879, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.7439, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 36, "progressive_carries": 2, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.477, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Achraf Hakimi", "opponent_faced": "Achraf Hakimi", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1424, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.033, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 12813010, "match_date": "2026-07-04", "home_team": "Paraguay", "away_team": "France", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "France", "opponent": "Paraguay", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0398, "expected_assists": 0.0401, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, 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"uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 14749, "combined_rank_score": 698.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 358.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9647, "sofascore_appearances": 17.0, "fifa_rank": 1039.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.6359, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Sofyan Amrabat", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Hirving Lozano", "ranking": 14744 }, { "player_name": "Konstantinos Fortounis", "ranking": 14745 }, { "player_name": "Federico Gatti", "ranking": 14746 }, { "player_name": "Gonzalo García", "ranking": 14747 }, { "player_name": "Gelson Martins", "ranking": 14748 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "José Tiznado", "ranking": 14750 }, { "player_name": "Neco Williams", "ranking": 14751 }, { "player_name": "Thiago Almada", "ranking": 14752 }, { "player_name": "Alisher Shukurov", "ranking": 14753 }, { "player_name": "Danny Welbeck", "ranking": 14754 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.05, "expected_assists": 0.79, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 10, "total_passes": 467, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 85.62, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.3 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Michael Olise", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 144000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.899, "defenders": [ "Noussair Mazraoui" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.606, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.616, "xg_contribution": 0.1466, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Noussair Mazraoui", "role": "RB", "market_value": 17500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.384 } ], "duel_analysis": "Michael Olise (LW) has a clear attacking advantage against Noussair Mazraoui in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 62%. The quality gap is significant (€144M vs €18M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.147 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Bradley Barcola", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 68000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.868, "defenders": [ "Achraf Hakimi" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.884, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.477, "xg_contribution": 0.0059, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Achraf Hakimi", "role": "LB", "market_value": 82000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.523 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bradley Barcola (RW) is evenly matched against Achraf Hakimi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Projected xG contribution: 0.006 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ousmane Dembélé", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 97000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.892, "defenders": [ "Neil El Aynaoui", "Ayyoub Bouaddi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.744, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.277, "xg_contribution": 0.0958, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Neil El Aynaoui", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 22000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.723 }, { "player": "Ayyoub Bouaddi", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.723 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ousmane Dembélé (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Neil El Aynaoui and Ayyoub Bouaddi in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€97M vs €38M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.096 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Kylian Mbappé", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 191000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Issa Diop", "Chadi Riad" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.538, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.323, "xg_contribution": 0.5477, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Issa Diop", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8199999, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.677 }, { "player": "Chadi Riad", "role": "CB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.677 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kylian Mbappé (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Issa Diop and Chadi Riad in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 32%. The quality gap is significant (€191M vs €11M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.548 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Adrien Rabiot", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 17300000, "attacker_height": 191, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.604, "defenders": [ "Neil El Aynaoui" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.65, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.419, "xg_contribution": 0.1211, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Neil El Aynaoui", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 22000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.581 } ], "duel_analysis": "Adrien Rabiot (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Neil El Aynaoui in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.121 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Azzedine Ounahi", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 10300000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.526, "defenders": [ "Jules Koundé" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.861, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.337, "xg_contribution": 0.1019, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jules Koundé", "role": "RB", "market_value": 64000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.663 } ], "duel_analysis": "Azzedine Ounahi (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Jules Koundé in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€10M vs €64M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.102 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Bilal El Khannouss", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 32000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.732, "defenders": [ "Lucas Digne" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.468, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.607, "xg_contribution": 0.078, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lucas Digne", "role": "LB", "market_value": 5500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.393 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bilal El Khannouss (RW) has a clear attacking advantage against Lucas Digne in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 61%. The quality gap is significant (€32M vs €6M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.078 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Brahim Díaz", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 37000000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.764, "defenders": [ "Adrien Rabiot", "Manu Koné" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.708, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.205, "xg_contribution": 0.0326, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrien Rabiot", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 17300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.795 }, { "player": "Manu Koné", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 47000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.795 } ], "duel_analysis": "Brahim Díaz (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Adrien Rabiot and Manu Koné in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. Projected xG contribution: 0.033 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Soufiane Rahimi", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 6200000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.477, "defenders": [ "William Saliba", "Dayot Upamecano" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.877, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0695, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "William Saliba", "role": "CB", "market_value": 94000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Dayot Upamecano", "role": "CB", "market_value": 65000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Soufiane Rahimi (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against William Saliba and Dayot Upamecano in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€6M vs €80M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.069 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Neil El Aynaoui", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 22000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.65, "defenders": [ "Adrien Rabiot" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.604, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.421, "xg_contribution": 0.0664, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrien Rabiot", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 17300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.579 } ], "duel_analysis": "Neil El Aynaoui (CDM) is evenly matched against Adrien Rabiot in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.066 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.772, "away_midfield_power": 0.752, "home_creative_power": 0.864, "away_creative_power": 0.759, "home_defensive_power": 0.935, "away_defensive_power": 0.73, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.507, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Michael Olise", "Adrien Rabiot", "Manu Koné" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Bilal El Khannouss", "Azzedine Ounahi", "Brahim Díaz", "Neil El Aynaoui", "Ayyoub Bouaddi" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 9.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.3, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.7, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.1, "home_throughball_threat": 3.2, "away_throughball_threat": 2.9, "key_personal_duel": "Michael Olise vs Ayyoub Bouaddi", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.007, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.991 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.721, "away_lambda": 1.05, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Michael Olise": { "opponents": [ "Noussair Mazraoui", "Ayyoub Bouaddi" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Bradley Barcola": { "opponents": [ "Achraf Hakimi" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ousmane Dembélé": { "opponents": [ "Neil El Aynaoui", "Ayyoub Bouaddi" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Kylian Mbappé": { "opponents": [ "Issa Diop", "Chadi Riad" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Adrien Rabiot": { "opponents": [ "Neil El Aynaoui", "Brahim Díaz", "Azzedine Ounahi" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jules Koundé": { "opponents": [ "Azzedine Ounahi" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Lucas Digne": { "opponents": [ "Bilal El Khannouss" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Manu Koné": { "opponents": [ "Brahim Díaz", "Neil El Aynaoui", "Bilal El Khannouss" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "William Saliba": { "opponents": [ "Soufiane Rahimi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dayot Upamecano": { "opponents": [ "Soufiane Rahimi" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mike Maignan": { "opponents": [ "Soufiane Rahimi", "Ayyoub Bouaddi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Noussair Mazraoui": { "opponents": [ "Michael Olise" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Achraf Hakimi": { "opponents": [ "Bradley Barcola" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Neil El Aynaoui": { "opponents": [ "Ousmane Dembélé", "Adrien Rabiot", "Manu Koné" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ayyoub Bouaddi": { "opponents": [ "Ousmane Dembélé", "Michael Olise" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Issa Diop": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Chadi Riad": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Azzedine Ounahi": { "opponents": [ "Jules Koundé", "Adrien Rabiot" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Bilal El Khannouss": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Digne", "Manu Koné" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Brahim Díaz": { "opponents": [ "Adrien Rabiot", "Manu Koné" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Soufiane Rahimi": { "opponents": [ "William Saliba", "Dayot Upamecano" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Yassine Bounou": { "opponents": [ "Bradley Barcola", "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Michael Olise vs Ayyoub Bouaddi will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.92, Away: 0.35. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0112, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9234, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1118, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1475, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9319, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.892, "home_midfield_factor": 1.007, "away_midfield_factor": 0.991, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.8059, "away_avg_quality": 0.6552, "avg_quality_gap": 0.1507, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.0052, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.9355, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.2086, "elite_count_gap": 6, "combined_quality_gap": 0.2471, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.5436, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.346, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0357, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0448, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.05, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.721, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.695, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.7207, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.6948, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 1.721, "final_away_lambda": 1.05 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-07-09T13:31:19Z" }