{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Norway", "away_team": "England", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260711", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-1", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.126, "match_resolution": "penalties_if_level", "predicted_winner": "England", "tiebreaker": { "applies": true, "method": "penalties_if_level", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2071, "shootout_home_win_probability": 0.3855, "shootout_away_win_probability": 0.6145, "penalty_home_goals": 3, "penalty_away_goals": 5, "penalty_score": "3-5", "penalty_winner": "England", "penalty_winner_goals": 5, "penalty_loser_goals": 3, "penalty_result": "England wins 5-3 on penalties", "home_advance_probability": 0.2169, "away_advance_probability": 0.7831, "projected_winner": "England", "projected_winner_probability": 0.7831, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Knockout match: a tied scoreline remains possible, then the advancing team is projected through penalties." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.126 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.125 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0983 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0966 }, { "score": "0-3", "probability": 0.0823 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0646, "0-1": 0.126, "0-2": 0.125, "0-3": 0.0823, "0-4": 0.0407, "0-5": 0.0161, "0-6": 0.0053, "0-7": 0.0015, "1-0": 0.0489, "1-1": 0.0983, "1-2": 0.0966, "1-3": 0.0636, "1-4": 0.0314, "1-5": 0.0124, "1-6": 0.0041, "1-7": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.0191, "2-1": 0.0377, "2-2": 0.0373, "2-3": 0.0246, "2-4": 0.0121, "2-5": 0.0048, "2-6": 0.0016, "3-0": 0.0049, "3-1": 0.0097, "3-2": 0.0096, "3-3": 0.0063, "3-4": 0.0031, "3-5": 0.0012, "4-0": 0.0009, "4-1": 0.0019, "4-2": 0.0019, "4-3": 0.0012, "4-4": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.137, "draw": 0.2071, "away_win": 0.6558 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5181, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4819, "btts_yes": 0.464, "btts_no": 0.536, "home_clean_sheet": 0.1386, "away_clean_sheet": 0.4619 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 80.56, "MCR": 87.78, "ATR": 90.95, "GK": 82.69 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 85.93, "MCR": 93.85, "ATR": 94.44, "GK": 90.64 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Norway vs England. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Harry Kane", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Martin Ødegaard vs Jude Bellingham will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.82, Away: 1.17. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.79, "home_lambda": 0.813, "away_lambda": 2.08 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.137, "draw": 0.2071, "away_win": 0.6558 }, "favorite": "England", "favorite_win_probability": 0.6558, "fair_spread": -1.267, "fair_total": 2.893, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Norway", "estimate": 0.813, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "England", "estimate": 2.08, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5181, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.464, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Norway", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1386, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "England", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4619, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Erling Haaland (Norway)", "estimate": 0.3916, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Harry Kane (England)", "estimate": 0.6748, "probability": 0.3686, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Julian Ryerson (Norway)", "estimate": 0.1795, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Harry Kane (England)", "estimate": 0.2444, "probability": 0.0962, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.893, "expected_total_shots": 23, "expected_total_passes": 847, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.1, "possession_home_pct": 48.2, "possession_away_pct": 51.8, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "England", "favorite_win_probability": 0.6558, "script": "England is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread -1.27 goals and fair total 2.89.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Norway must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A England lead likely shifts toward control and counters; if level after extra time, penalties are live; England projects as the advancing side at 78.3% overall advancement probability with 20.7% draw pressure." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "England chance creation leans on Harry Kane against Kristoffer Ajer, Torbjørn Heggem in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Norway: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Jørgen Strand Larsen, Andreas Schjelderup, Oscar Bobb.", "England: starters carry the main goal usage through Harry Kane; bench watchlist: Morgan Rogers, Noni Madueke, Marcus Rashford.", "Assist usage should flow through Declan Rice; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: England tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.45 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Norway is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; if level after extra time, penalties are live; England projects as the advancing side at 78.3% overall advancement probability with 20.7% draw pressure." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for England.", "Norway wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Norway": { "formation": "4-3-3", "players": { "Antonio Nusa": { "player_id": 1121923, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 180, "market_value": 31000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0006, "goal_rate": 0.3052, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0368, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 83.5033, "minutes": 62, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 11, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 9.8741, "dispossessed": 1.7827, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.4377, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 52, "progressive_carries": 2, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "crosses_attempted": 2.4, "duel_win_rate": 0.438, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ezri Konsa", "opponent_faced": "Ezri Konsa", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 12813006, "match_date": "2026-07-05", "home_team": "Brazil", "away_team": "Norway", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Norway", "opponent": "Brazil", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0194, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 13, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 12812989, "match_date": "2026-06-30", "home_team": "Côte d'Ivoire", "away_team": "Norway", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Norway", "opponent": "Côte d'Ivoire", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0218, "expected_assists": 0.0401, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186537, "match_date": "2026-06-26", "home_team": "Norway", "away_team": "France", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Norway", "opponent": "France", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186770, "match_date": "2026-06-23", "home_team": "Norway", "away_team": "Senegal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Norway", "opponent": "Senegal", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0937, "expected_assists": 0.0958, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186773, "match_date": "2026-06-16", "home_team": "Iraq", "away_team": "Norway", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Norway", "opponent": "Iraq", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0174, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14065555, "match_date": "2026-05-16", "home_team": "SC Freiburg", "away_team": "RB Leipzig", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "RB Leipzig", "opponent": "SC Freiburg", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0684, "expected_assists": 0.0722, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065250, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "RB Leipzig", "away_team": "FC St. Pauli", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "RB Leipzig", "opponent": "FC St. Pauli", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0863, "expected_assists": 0.0045, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065236, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Bayer 04 Leverkusen", "away_team": "RB Leipzig", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "RB Leipzig", "opponent": "Bayer 04 Leverkusen", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0329, "expected_assists": 0.1482, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13233679, "match_date": "2025-11-16", "home_team": "Italy", "away_team": "Norway", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Norway", "opponent": "Italy", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 3, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 15580, "combined_rank_score": 878.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 14.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.15, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 1742.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.5033, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Antonio Nusa", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Thiago Borbas", "ranking": 15575 }, { "player_name": "Marcus Tavernier", "ranking": 15576 }, { "player_name": "Flavio Moya", "ranking": 15577 }, { "player_name": "Vitaly Janelt", "ranking": 15578 }, { "player_name": "Jindřich Staněk", "ranking": 15579 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Oybek Nurmatov", "ranking": 15581 }, { "player_name": "Emanuel Zünd", "ranking": 15582 }, { "player_name": "Will Kennedy", "ranking": 15583 }, { "player_name": "Harol Salgado", "ranking": 15584 }, { "player_name": "Seong-ju Kim", "ranking": 15585 } ] } } }, "Erling Haaland": { "player_id": 839956, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 194, "market_value": 218000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3916, "goal_rate": 1.6887, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0635, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 98.6653, "minutes": 95, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 8, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 24, "possession_lost": 6.9664, "dispossessed": 2.52, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "blocks": 2, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 2, "xgot": 1.4672, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.301, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Nico O'Reilly, John Stones", "opponent_faced": "Nico O'Reilly, John Stones", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 12813006, "match_date": "2026-07-05", "home_team": "Brazil", "away_team": "Norway", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Norway", "opponent": "Brazil", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.1, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4674, "expected_assists": 0.0742, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 12812989, "match_date": "2026-06-30", "home_team": "Côte d'Ivoire", "away_team": "Norway", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Norway", "opponent": "Côte d'Ivoire", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.1677, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186770, "match_date": "2026-06-23", "home_team": "Norway", "away_team": "Senegal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Norway", "opponent": "Senegal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.4, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8373, "expected_assists": 0.1358, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": 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"25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632625, "match_date": "2026-05-07", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0442, "expected_assists": 0.0861, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 3, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632623, "match_date": "2026-04-30", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2163, "expected_assists": 0.0238, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632621, "match_date": "2026-04-16", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Bologna", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Bologna", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 8.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.973, "expected_assists": 0.8191, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 312, "combined_rank_score": 180.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 332.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.4762, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Morgan Rogers", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jarrod Bowen", "ranking": 307 }, { "player_name": "Karim Benzema", "ranking": 308 }, { "player_name": "Tuta", "ranking": 309 }, { "player_name": "Edgar Silva", "ranking": 310 }, { "player_name": "Róger Guedes", "ranking": 311 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Seong-min Hwang", "ranking": 313 }, { "player_name": "Kaiki", "ranking": 314 }, { "player_name": "Ianis Hagi", "ranking": 315 }, { "player_name": "Francisco Salinas", "ranking": 316 }, { "player_name": "Anzur Ismoilov", "ranking": 317 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 2.08, "expected_assists": 1.02, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 9, "total_passes": 433, "interceptions": 11, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 90.84, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.8, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Alexander Sørloth", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 18600000, "attacker_height": 195, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.617, "defenders": [ "Djed Spence" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.725, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.475, "xg_contribution": 0.0047, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Djed Spence", "role": "RB", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.525 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alexander Sørloth (LW) is evenly matched against Djed Spence in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Projected xG contribution: 0.005 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Antonio Nusa", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Ezri Konsa" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.791, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.438, "xg_contribution": 0.0011, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ezri Konsa", "role": "LB", "market_value": 42000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.562 } ], "duel_analysis": "Antonio Nusa (RW) is evenly matched against Ezri Konsa in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.001 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Erling Haaland", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 218000000, "attacker_height": 194, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Nico O'Reilly", "John Stones" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.706, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.301, "xg_contribution": 0.679, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nico O'Reilly", "role": "CB", "market_value": 76000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.699 }, { "player": "John Stones", "role": "CB", "market_value": 10900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.699 } ], "duel_analysis": "Erling Haaland (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Nico O'Reilly and John Stones in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€218M vs €43M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.679 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Sander Berge", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 195, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Elliot Anderson" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.868, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.398, "xg_contribution": 0.0666, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Elliot Anderson", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 68000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.602 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sander Berge (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Elliot Anderson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €68M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.067 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Martin Ødegaard", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 71000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.872, "defenders": [ "Elliot Anderson" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.868, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.448, "xg_contribution": 0.0677, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Elliot Anderson", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 68000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.552 } ], "duel_analysis": "Martin Ødegaard (CM) is evenly matched against Elliot Anderson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Projected xG contribution: 0.068 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Declan Rice", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 114000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.897, "defenders": [ "Patrick Berg" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.493, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.694, "xg_contribution": 0.4356, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Patrick Berg", "role": "RB", "market_value": 7500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.306 } ], "duel_analysis": "Declan Rice (LW) has a clear attacking advantage against Patrick Berg in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 69%. The quality gap is significant (€114M vs €8M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.436 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Bukayo Saka", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 115000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.897, "defenders": [ "David Møller Wolfe" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.49, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.635, "xg_contribution": 0.0021, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "David Møller Wolfe", "role": "LB", "market_value": 7300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.365 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bukayo Saka (RW) has a clear attacking advantage against David Møller Wolfe in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 63%. The quality gap is significant (€115M vs €7M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.002 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Anthony Gordon", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 67000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.866, "defenders": [ "Sander Berge" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.493, "xg_contribution": 0.0042, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sander Berge", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.507 } ], "duel_analysis": "Anthony Gordon (CAM) is evenly matched against Sander Berge in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. The quality gap is significant (€67M vs €26M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.004 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Harry Kane", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 65000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.863, "defenders": [ "Kristoffer Ajer", "Torbjørn Heggem" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.587, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.3, "xg_contribution": 0.6851, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kristoffer Ajer", "role": "CB", "market_value": 19500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.7 }, { "player": "Torbjørn Heggem", "role": "CB", "market_value": 12200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.7 } ], "duel_analysis": "Harry Kane (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Kristoffer Ajer and Torbjørn Heggem in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€65M vs €16M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.685 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Elliot Anderson", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 68000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.868, "defenders": [ "Martin Ødegaard" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.872, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.402, "xg_contribution": 0.0416, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Martin Ødegaard", "role": "CM", "market_value": 71000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.598 } ], "duel_analysis": "Elliot Anderson (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Martin Ødegaard in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.042 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.705, "away_midfield_power": 0.887, "home_creative_power": 0.73, "away_creative_power": 1.021, "home_defensive_power": 0.583, "away_defensive_power": 0.754, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.443, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Patrick Berg", "Sander Berge", "Martin Ødegaard", "Julian Ryerson" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Declan Rice", "Elliot Anderson", "Jude Bellingham" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 48.2, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.8, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.5, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.9, "away_key_passes_projected": 7.6, "home_throughball_threat": 2.8, "away_throughball_threat": 3.7, "key_personal_duel": "Martin Ødegaard vs Jude Bellingham", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.986, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.032 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-3-3", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.03, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 0.813, "away_lambda": 2.08, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Alexander Sørloth": { "opponents": [ "Djed Spence" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Antonio Nusa": { "opponents": [ "Ezri Konsa" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Erling Haaland": { "opponents": [ "Nico O'Reilly", "John Stones" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Sander Berge": { "opponents": [ "Elliot Anderson", "Anthony Gordon" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Martin Ødegaard": { "opponents": [ "Elliot Anderson", "Jude Bellingham" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Patrick Berg": { "opponents": [ "Declan Rice", "Elliot Anderson" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "David Møller Wolfe": { "opponents": [ "Bukayo Saka" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Kristoffer Ajer": { "opponents": [ "Harry Kane" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Torbjørn Heggem": { "opponents": [ "Harry Kane" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Julian Ryerson": { "opponents": [ "Declan Rice" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Ørjan Nyland": { "opponents": [ "Bukayo Saka", "Anthony Gordon" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Djed Spence": { "opponents": [ "Alexander Sørloth" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ezri Konsa": { "opponents": [ "Antonio Nusa" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nico O'Reilly": { "opponents": [ "Erling Haaland" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "John Stones": { "opponents": [ "Erling Haaland" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Elliot Anderson": { "opponents": [ "Sander Berge", "Martin Ødegaard", "Patrick Berg" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Declan Rice": { "opponents": [ "Patrick Berg", "Julian Ryerson" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Bukayo Saka": { "opponents": [ "David Møller Wolfe" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Anthony Gordon": { "opponents": [ "Sander Berge" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Harry Kane": { "opponents": [ "Kristoffer Ajer", "Torbjørn Heggem" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jude Bellingham": { "opponents": [ "Martin Ødegaard" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Jordan Pickford": { "opponents": [ "Antonio Nusa", "Alexander Sørloth" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Martin Ødegaard vs Jude Bellingham will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.82, Away: 1.17. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9575, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0218, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9112, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9764, "home_midfield_factor": 0.986, "away_midfield_factor": 1.032, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6625, "away_avg_quality": 0.8215, "avg_quality_gap": -0.1589, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.4836, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.2864, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.3249, "elite_count_gap": -6, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1953, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.4296, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.2734, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0649, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0435, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.8129, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 2.0805, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 0.813, "final_away_lambda": 2.08 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-07-11T13:31:19Z" }