{ "match_info": { "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Spain", "tournament": "World Championship", "date": "20260714", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-0", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1428, "match_resolution": "penalties_if_level", "predicted_winner": "France", "tiebreaker": { "applies": true, "method": "penalties_if_level", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.3157, "shootout_home_win_probability": 0.5027, "shootout_away_win_probability": 0.4973, "penalty_home_goals": 6, "penalty_away_goals": 5, "penalty_score": "6-5", "penalty_winner": "France", "penalty_winner_goals": 6, "penalty_loser_goals": 5, "penalty_result": "France wins 6-5 on penalties", "home_advance_probability": 0.5061, "away_advance_probability": 0.4939, "projected_winner": "France", "projected_winner_probability": 0.5061, "final_score_after_penalties": "0-0 (France wins 6-5 on penalties)", "reason": "Knockout match: a tied scoreline remains possible, then the advancing team is projected through penalties." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1428 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.138 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1369 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1352 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.069 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1428, "0-1": 0.1352, "0-2": 0.0663, "0-3": 0.0214, "0-4": 0.0052, "0-5": 0.001, "1-0": 0.138, "1-1": 0.1369, "1-2": 0.0655, "1-3": 0.0212, "1-4": 0.0051, "1-5": 0.001, "2-0": 0.069, "2-1": 0.0669, "2-2": 0.0324, "2-3": 0.0105, "2-4": 0.0025, "3-0": 0.0228, "3-1": 0.022, "3-2": 0.0107, "3-3": 0.0035, "3-4": 0.0008, "4-0": 0.0056, "4-1": 0.0055, "4-2": 0.0026, "4-3": 0.0009, "5-0": 0.0011, "5-1": 0.0011, "5-2": 0.0005 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3474, "draw": 0.3157, "away_win": 0.3369 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3119, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6881, "btts_yes": 0.3913, "btts_no": 0.6087, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3795, "away_clean_sheet": 0.372 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 92.37, "MCR": 92.23, "ATR": 96.37, "GK": 94.1 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 90.07, "MCR": 95.22, "ATR": 94.03, "GK": 91.84 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for France vs Spain. Most likely scoreline: 0-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Kylian Mbappé (ST) — Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle [0.621 xG]", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Michael Olise vs Lamine Yamal will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.99, Away: 0.50. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.68, "home_lambda": 1.041, "away_lambda": 1.02 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3474, "draw": 0.3157, "away_win": 0.3369 }, "favorite": "France", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3474, "fair_spread": 0.021, "fair_total": 2.061, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "France", "estimate": 1.041, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Spain", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3119, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3913, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "France", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3795, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Spain", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.372, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Kylian Mbappé (France)", "estimate": 0.4186, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Pedro Porro (Spain)", "estimate": 0.176, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Michael Olise (France)", "estimate": 0.2993, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Lamine Yamal (Spain)", "estimate": 0.1702, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.061, "expected_total_shots": 24, "expected_total_passes": 1182, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 18.4, "possession_home_pct": 50.2, "possession_away_pct": 49.8, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "France", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3474, "script": "France is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.02 goals and fair total 2.06.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Spain must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A France lead likely shifts toward control and counters; if level after extra time, penalties are live; France projects as the advancing side at 50.6% overall advancement probability with 31.6% draw pressure." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "France chance creation leans on Kylian Mbappé against Pau Cubarsí, Aymeric Laporte in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "France: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Rayan Cherki, Warren Zaïre-Emery, Bradley Barcola.", "Spain: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Fermín López, Martín Zubimendi, Ferran Torres.", "Assist usage should flow through the projected key-pass leaders; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: France tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.03 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Spain is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; if level after extra time, penalties are live; France projects as the advancing side at 50.6% overall advancement probability with 31.6% draw pressure." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for France.", "Spain wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "France": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Kylian Mbappé": { "player_id": 826643, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 180, "market_value": 191000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4186, "goal_rate": 1.0975, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1171, "key_pass": 2, "rating": 99.1815, "minutes": 86, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 26, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 25, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 47, "possession_lost": 10.9198, "dispossessed": 2.0496, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 2, "xgot": 1.232, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 99, "progressive_carries": 5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.264, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Pau Cubarsí, Aymeric Laporte", "opponent_faced": "Pau Cubarsí, Aymeric Laporte", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 91.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 12813016, "match_date": "2026-07-09", "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Morocco", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "France", "opponent": "Morocco", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 1.3385, "expected_assists": 0.0461, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 4, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 12813010, "match_date": "2026-07-04", "home_team": "Paraguay", "away_team": "France", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "France", "opponent": "Paraguay", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.1738, "expected_assists": 0.0306, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 4, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 12812995, "match_date": "2026-06-30", "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Sweden", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "France", "opponent": "Sweden", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 9.8, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5974, "expected_assists": 0.0985, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 4, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186537, "match_date": "2026-06-26", "home_team": "Norway", "away_team": "France", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "France", "opponent": "Norway", "stats": { "minutes": 87, "rating": 7.4, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.2892, "expected_assists": 0.5773, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186769, "match_date": "2026-06-22", "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Iraq", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "France", "opponent": "Iraq", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 9.2, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.226, "expected_assists": 0.114, "total_shots": 8, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 4, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 35, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186501, "match_date": "2026-06-16", "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Senegal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "France", "opponent": "Senegal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7638, "expected_assists": 0.0209, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14083731, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2598, "expected_assists": 0.0681, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083702, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5088, "expected_assists": 0.0226, "total_shots": 5, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083649, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Oviedo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1734, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632088, "match_date": "2026-04-15", "home_team": "FC Bayern München", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "FC Bayern München", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.2395, "expected_assists": 0.3297, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4, "combined_rank_score": 10.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 18.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.0545, "sofascore_appearances": 11.0, "fifa_rank": 3.0, "fifa_overall": 91.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 8.1815, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kylian Mbappé", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ryu Won-Woo", "ranking": 1 }, { "player_name": "Lamine Yamal", "ranking": 2 }, { "player_name": "Maximiliano Gutiérrez", "ranking": 3 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Erling Haaland", "ranking": 5 }, { "player_name": "Pedri", "ranking": 6 }, { "player_name": "Nico López", "ranking": 7 }, { "player_name": "Andy Vidal", "ranking": 8 }, { "player_name": "James Rodríguez", "ranking": 9 } ] } } }, "Désiré Doué": { "player_id": 1154605, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 181, "market_value": 124000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0336, "goal_rate": 0.0013, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0625, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 92.5133, "minutes": 53, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 22, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 41, "possession_lost": 9.6268, "dispossessed": 1.5671, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.4254, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 13, "total_progression": 78, "progressive_carries": 3, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.534, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Marc Cucurella", "opponent_faced": "Marc Cucurella", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 12813016, "match_date": "2026-07-09", "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Morocco", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "France", "opponent": "Morocco", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.3703, "expected_assists": 0.1849, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 33, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 12813010, "match_date": "2026-07-04", "home_team": "Paraguay", "away_team": "France", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "France", "opponent": "Paraguay", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 7.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.026, "expected_assists": 0.0395, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 12812995, "match_date": 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"shots_on_target": 11, "total_passes": 627, "interceptions": 12, "tackles": 19, "avg_rating": 92.93, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.8, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.7 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Michael Olise", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 144000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.899, "defenders": [ "Pedro Porro" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.732, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.599, "xg_contribution": 0.1703, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pedro Porro", "role": "RB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.401 } ], "duel_analysis": "Michael Olise (LW) is slightly favored against Pedro Porro in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 60%. The quality gap is significant (€144M vs €32M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.170 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Désiré Doué", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 124000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.898, "defenders": [ "Marc Cucurella" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.831, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.534, "xg_contribution": 0.0498, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Cucurella", "role": "LB", "market_value": 52000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.466 } ], "duel_analysis": "Désiré Doué (RW) is slightly favored against Marc Cucurella in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 53%. The quality gap is significant (€124M vs €52M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.050 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Ousmane Dembélé", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 97000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.892, "defenders": [ "Pedri", "Rodri" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.852, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.24, "xg_contribution": 0.0904, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pedri", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 164000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.76 }, { "player": "Rodri", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 45000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.76 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ousmane Dembélé (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Pedri and Rodri in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. Projected xG contribution: 0.090 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Kylian Mbappé", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 191000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Pau Cubarsí", "Aymeric Laporte" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.69, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.264, "xg_contribution": 0.6213, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pau Cubarsí", "role": "CB", "market_value": 75000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736 }, { "player": "Aymeric Laporte", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kylian Mbappé (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Pau Cubarsí and Aymeric Laporte in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€191M vs €42M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.621 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Adrien Rabiot", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 17300000, "attacker_height": 191, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.604, "defenders": [ "Pedri" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.9, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.347, "xg_contribution": 0.0539, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pedri", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 164000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.653 } ], "duel_analysis": "Adrien Rabiot (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Pedri in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. The quality gap is significant (€17M vs €164M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.054 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Lamine Yamal", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 215000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Jules Koundé" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.861, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.51, "xg_contribution": 0.1462, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jules Koundé", "role": "RB", "market_value": 64000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.49 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lamine Yamal (LW) is slightly favored against Jules Koundé in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. The quality gap is significant (€215M vs €64M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.146 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Alex Baena", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 43000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.796, "defenders": [ "Lucas Digne" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.468, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.611, "xg_contribution": 0.062, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lucas Digne", "role": "LB", "market_value": 5500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.389 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alex Baena (RW) has a clear attacking advantage against Lucas Digne in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 61%. The quality gap is significant (€43M vs €6M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.062 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Dani Olmo", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 58000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.848, "defenders": [ "Adrien Rabiot", "Aurélien Tchouaméni" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.739, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.247, "xg_contribution": 0.0389, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrien Rabiot", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 17300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.753 }, { "player": "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 73000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.753 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dani Olmo (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Adrien Rabiot and Aurélien Tchouaméni in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 25%. Projected xG contribution: 0.039 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "William Saliba", "Dayot Upamecano" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.877, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1593, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "William Saliba", "role": "CB", "market_value": 94000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Dayot Upamecano", "role": "CB", "market_value": 65000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mikel Oyarzabal (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against William Saliba and Dayot Upamecano in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €80M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.159 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Pedri", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 164000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Adrien Rabiot" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.604, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.493, "xg_contribution": 0.0928, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrien Rabiot", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 17300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.507 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pedri (CDM) is evenly matched against Adrien Rabiot in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. The quality gap is significant (€164M vs €17M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.093 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.793, "away_midfield_power": 0.9, "home_creative_power": 0.864, "away_creative_power": 0.977, "home_defensive_power": 1.006, "away_defensive_power": 0.765, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.468, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Michael Olise", "Adrien Rabiot", "Aurélien Tchouaméni" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Lamine Yamal", "Pedri", "Rodri", "Dani Olmo", "Alex Baena" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.2, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.8, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 9.7, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.7, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.7, "away_key_passes_projected": 7.4, "home_throughball_threat": 3.2, "away_throughball_threat": 3.5, "key_personal_duel": "Michael Olise vs Lamine Yamal", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.997, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.006 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.041, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Michael Olise": { "opponents": [ "Pedro Porro", "Rodri" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Désiré Doué": { "opponents": [ "Marc Cucurella" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ousmane Dembélé": { "opponents": [ "Pedri", "Rodri" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Kylian Mbappé": { "opponents": [ "Pau Cubarsí", "Aymeric Laporte" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Adrien Rabiot": { "opponents": [ "Pedri", "Dani Olmo", "Lamine Yamal" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jules Koundé": { "opponents": [ "Lamine Yamal" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Lucas Digne": { "opponents": [ "Alex Baena" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Aurélien Tchouaméni": { "opponents": [ "Dani Olmo", "Pedri", "Alex Baena" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "William Saliba": { "opponents": [ "Mikel Oyarzabal" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dayot Upamecano": { "opponents": [ "Mikel Oyarzabal" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mike Maignan": { "opponents": [ "Mikel Oyarzabal", "Lamine Yamal" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Pedro Porro": { "opponents": [ "Michael Olise" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marc Cucurella": { "opponents": [ "Désiré Doué" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pedri": { "opponents": [ "Ousmane Dembélé", "Adrien Rabiot", "Aurélien Tchouaméni" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Rodri": { "opponents": [ "Ousmane Dembélé", "Michael Olise" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pau Cubarsí": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Aymeric Laporte": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Lamine Yamal": { "opponents": [ "Jules Koundé", "Adrien Rabiot" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alex Baena": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Digne", "Aurélien Tchouaméni" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dani Olmo": { "opponents": [ "Adrien Rabiot", "Aurélien Tchouaméni" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Mikel Oyarzabal": { "opponents": [ "William Saliba", "Dayot Upamecano" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Unai Simón": { "opponents": [ "Désiré Doué", "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Michael Olise vs Lamine Yamal will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.99, Away: 0.50. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9273, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9234, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1118, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1335, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.904, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.892, "home_midfield_factor": 0.997, "away_midfield_factor": 1.006, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.8151, "away_avg_quality": 0.7885, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0265, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.1931, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.1396, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.1551, "elite_count_gap": 1, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0595, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0193, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0336, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.041, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.768, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.0413, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.7676, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 1.041, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-07-14T13:30:46Z" }