{ "match_info": { "home_team": "France", "away_team": "W98", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260714", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-4-2" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-0", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1238, "match_resolution": "penalties_if_level", "predicted_winner": "France", "tiebreaker": { "applies": true, "method": "penalties_if_level", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.1246, "shootout_home_win_probability": 0.62, "shootout_away_win_probability": 0.38, "penalty_home_goals": 4, "penalty_away_goals": 2, "penalty_score": "4-2", "penalty_winner": "France", "penalty_winner_goals": 4, "penalty_loser_goals": 2, "penalty_result": "France wins 4-2 on penalties", "home_advance_probability": 0.89, "away_advance_probability": 0.11, "projected_winner": "France", "projected_winner_probability": 0.89, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Knockout match: a tied scoreline remains possible, then the advancing team is projected through penalties." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.1238 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.1147 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0889 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0819 }, { "score": "4-0", "probability": 0.0797 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0322, "0-1": 0.021, "0-2": 0.007, "0-3": 0.0015, "1-0": 0.0889, "1-1": 0.0591, "1-2": 0.0195, "1-3": 0.0043, "1-4": 0.0007, "2-0": 0.1238, "2-1": 0.0819, "2-2": 0.0271, "2-3": 0.006, "2-4": 0.001, "3-0": 0.1147, "3-1": 0.0759, "3-2": 0.0251, "3-3": 0.0055, "3-4": 0.0009, "4-0": 0.0797, "4-1": 0.0527, "4-2": 0.0174, "4-3": 0.0038, "4-4": 0.0006, "5-0": 0.0443, "5-1": 0.0293, "5-2": 0.0097, "5-3": 0.0021, "6-0": 0.0205, "6-1": 0.0136, "6-2": 0.0045, "6-3": 0.001, "7-0": 0.0082, "7-1": 0.0054, "7-2": 0.0018, "8-0": 0.0028, "8-1": 0.0019, "8-2": 0.0006, "9-0": 0.0009, "9-1": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.8127, "draw": 0.1246, "away_win": 0.0627 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.6679, "under_2_5_goals": 0.3321, "btts_yes": 0.4539, "btts_no": 0.5461, "home_clean_sheet": 0.5162, "away_clean_sheet": 0.0621 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 94.28, "MCR": 90.47, "ATR": 96.37, "GK": 78.2 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.8, "MCR": 6.9, "ATR": 6.9, "GK": 6.8 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for France vs W98. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 6 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Kylian Mbappé (2)", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~55% possession expected (Michael Olise vs W98 M1). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.97, Away: 0.50. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.88, "home_lambda": 2.926, "away_lambda": 0.696 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.8127, "draw": 0.1246, "away_win": 0.0627 }, "favorite": "France", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8127, "fair_spread": 2.23, "fair_total": 3.622, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "France", "estimate": 2.926, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "W98", "estimate": 0.696, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.6679, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4539, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "France", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5162, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "W98", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0621, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Kylian Mbappé (France)", "estimate": 1.248, "probability": 0.624, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "W98 F1 (W98)", "estimate": 0.1227, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Michael Olise (France)", "estimate": 0.4213, "probability": 0.3218, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "W98 M1 (W98)", "estimate": 0.0951, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.622, "expected_total_shots": 27, "expected_total_passes": 1003, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.2, "possession_home_pct": 55.0, "possession_away_pct": 45.0, "notes": "France projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "France", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8127, "script": "France is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +2.23 goals and fair total 3.62.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; W98 must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A France lead likely shifts toward control and counters; if level after extra time, penalties are live; France projects as the advancing side at 89.0% overall advancement probability with 12.5% draw pressure." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "France chance creation leans on Kylian Mbappé against W98 D2, W98 M2 in Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense; France projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "France: starters carry the main goal usage through Kylian Mbappé (2); bench watchlist: Bradley Barcola, Marcus Thuram.", "W98: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: W98 SUB F6, W98 SUB F7, W98 SUB M4.", "Assist usage should flow through Michael Olise; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: France tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.81 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If W98 is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; if level after extra time, penalties are live; France projects as the advancing side at 89.0% overall advancement probability with 12.5% draw pressure." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for France.", "W98 wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "France": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "Robin Risser": { "player_id": 1387161, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 40, "height": 193, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.3199, "rating": 78.202, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 21, "total_long_balls": 11, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 36, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 7.0419, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 23, "accurate_own_half_passes": 19, "expected_saves": 1.06, "high_pressure_saves": 0.4, "shots_faced": 2.3, "opponent_faced": "W98 F1, W98 F2", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15889331, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "RC Lens", "away_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "RC Lens", "opponent": "Paris Saint-Germain", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 15, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.7039 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14064514, "match_date": "2026-05-08", "home_team": "RC Lens", "away_team": "Nantes", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "RC Lens", "opponent": "Nantes", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 24, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.6497 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14167992, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Nice", "away_team": "RC Lens", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "RC Lens", "opponent": "Nice", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 20, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.1988 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 17980, "combined_rank_score": 2428.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 4780.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.202, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Robin Risser", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kevin Gutiérrez", "ranking": 17975 }, { "player_name": "Seung-beom Ko", "ranking": 17976 }, { "player_name": "Abdoulaye Doucouré", "ranking": 17977 }, { "player_name": "Oliver Christensen", "ranking": 17978 }, { "player_name": "Hugo Picard", "ranking": 17979 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Stijn Spierings", "ranking": 17981 }, { "player_name": "Boubacar Traoré", "ranking": 17982 }, { "player_name": "Alfonso Espino", "ranking": 17983 }, { "player_name": "Tom Louchet", "ranking": 17984 }, { "player_name": "Roberto Rosales", "ranking": 17985 } ] } } }, "William Saliba": { "player_id": 941168, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 193, "market_value": 85000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 94.9312, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 76, "accurate_pass": 71, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 44, "accurate_own_half_passes": 42, "total_opp_half_passes": 32, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 29, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 88, "possession_lost": 5.8578, "dispossessed": 1.1158, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1509, "expected_assists": 0.0335, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 22, "total_progression": 72, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "W98 M1", "pressing_zone": "LM vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LM vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0576, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0154, "fifa_overall": 87.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 12813016, "match_date": "2026-07-09 20:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": 16, "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": 58210, "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026", "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Morocco", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "France", "opponent": "Morocco", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 12813010, "match_date": "2026-07-04", "home_team": "Paraguay", "away_team": "France", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "France", "opponent": "Paraguay", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0281, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 66, "accurate_pass": 63, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 10, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 12812995, "match_date": "2026-06-30", "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Sweden", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "France", "opponent": "Sweden", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 49, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186769, "match_date": "2026-06-22", "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Iraq", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "France", "opponent": "Iraq", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0512, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 64, "accurate_pass": 61, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186501, "match_date": "2026-06-16", "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Senegal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "France", "opponent": "Senegal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0049, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 72, "accurate_pass": 69, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14023950, "match_date": "2026-05-18", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0133, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 58, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 6, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023942, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.164, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 80, "accurate_pass": 79, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632635, "match_date": "2026-05-05", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0673, "expected_assists": 0.0237, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 55, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632633, "match_date": "2026-04-29", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0113, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 62, "accurate_pass": 59, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", 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"projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "available_bench_not_projected_used", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "W98 SUB M5", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } }, "W98 SUB F6": { "player_id": 10203230, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 0, "height": 180, "market_value": 0, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0535, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.2763, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0481, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "W98 SUB F6", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } }, "W98 SUB F7": { "player_id": 10203231, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 0, "height": 180, "market_value": 0, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0535, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.2763, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0481, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "W98 SUB F7", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } } }, "substitutes": { "W98 SUB F6": { "player_id": 10203230, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 0, "height": 180, "market_value": 0, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0535, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.2763, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0481, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "W98 SUB F6", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } }, "W98 SUB F7": { "player_id": 10203231, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 0, "height": 180, "market_value": 0, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0535, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.2763, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0481, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "W98 SUB F7", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } }, "W98 SUB M4": { "player_id": 10203228, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 0, "height": 180, "market_value": 0, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0232, "expected_goals": 0.0167, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 1.9775, "dispossessed": 0.7, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0146, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0132, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 18, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "W98 SUB M4", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7, "expected_assists": 0.7, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 475, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 18, "avg_rating": 6.85, "possession_estimated_pct": 45.0, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Désiré Doué", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 93000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.891, "defenders": [ "W98 D2", "W98 D3" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.408, "xg_contribution": 0.1548, "shots_in_zone": 2.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "W98 D2", "role": "CB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.592 }, { "player": "W98 D3", "role": "CB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.592 } ], "duel_analysis": "Désiré Doué (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against W98 D2 and W98 D3 in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 41%. The quality gap is significant (€93M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.155 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Kylian Mbappé", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 212000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "W98 D2", "W98 M2" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.488, "xg_contribution": 0.6461, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "W98 D2", "role": "CB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.512 }, { "player": "W98 M2", "role": "CM", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.512 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kylian Mbappé (SS) is evenly matched against W98 D2 and W98 M2 in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 49%. The quality gap is significant (€212M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.646 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Rayan Cherki", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 71000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.872, "defenders": [ "W98 D4" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.58, "xg_contribution": 0.0721, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 3.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "W98 D4", "role": "RB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.42 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rayan Cherki (LWB) is slightly favored against W98 D4 in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 58%. The quality gap is significant (€71M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.072 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Warren Zaïre-Emery", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 58000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.848, "defenders": [ "W98 D1" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.577, "xg_contribution": 0.036, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 3.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "W98 D1", "role": "LB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.423 } ], "duel_analysis": "Warren Zaïre-Emery (RWB) is slightly favored against W98 D1 in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 58%. The quality gap is significant (€58M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.036 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 78000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.88, "defenders": [ "W98 M2" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.651, "xg_contribution": 0.061, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "W98 M2", "role": "CM", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.349 } ], "duel_analysis": "Aurélien Tchouaméni (CM) has a clear attacking advantage against W98 M2 in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 65%. The quality gap is significant (€78M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.061 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "W98 M1", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "William Saliba" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.886, "duel_zone": "LM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0522, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "William Saliba", "role": "CB", "market_value": 85000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.6, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "W98 M1 (LM) is heavily outmatched defensively against William Saliba in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €85M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.052 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "W98 M2", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Aurélien Tchouaméni" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.88, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.189, "xg_contribution": 0.0533, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "role": "CM", "market_value": 78000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.6, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.811 } ], "duel_analysis": "W98 M2 (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Aurélien Tchouaméni in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 19%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €78M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.053 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "W98 M3", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Aurélien Tchouaméni" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.88, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.189, "xg_contribution": 0.0533, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "role": "CM", "market_value": 78000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.6, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.811 } ], "duel_analysis": "W98 M3 (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Aurélien Tchouaméni in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 19%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €78M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.053 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "W98 M4", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "William Saliba" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.886, "duel_zone": "RM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0522, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "William Saliba", "role": "CB", "market_value": 85000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.6, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "W98 M4 (RM) is heavily outmatched defensively against William Saliba in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €85M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.052 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "W98 F1", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "William Saliba", "Jules Koundé" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.878, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1457, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "William Saliba", "role": "CB", "market_value": 85000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jules Koundé", "role": "CB", "market_value": 69000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "W98 F1 (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against William Saliba and Jules Koundé in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €77M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.146 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "W98 F2", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "William Saliba", "Jules Koundé" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.878, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1457, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "William Saliba", "role": "CB", "market_value": 85000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jules Koundé", "role": "CB", "market_value": 69000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "W98 F2 (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against William Saliba and Jules Koundé in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €77M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.146 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.9, "away_midfield_power": 0.462, "home_creative_power": 0.832, "away_creative_power": 0.503, "home_defensive_power": 0.825, "away_defensive_power": 0.393, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.661, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Michael Olise", "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "Rayan Cherki", "Warren Zaïre-Emery" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "W98 M1", "W98 M2", "W98 M3", "W98 M4" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 55.0, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 45.0, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 9.0, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.5, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.5, "home_throughball_threat": 3.1, "away_throughball_threat": 2.1, "key_personal_duel": "Michael Olise vs W98 M1", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.06, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.948 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.04, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.04, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 2.926, "away_lambda": 0.696, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Désiré Doué": { "opponents": [ "W98 D2", "W98 D3" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Kylian Mbappé": { "opponents": [ "W98 D2", "W98 M2" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Rayan Cherki": { "opponents": [ "W98 D4", "W98 M1" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Warren Zaïre-Emery": { "opponents": [ "W98 D1", "W98 M4" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Aurélien Tchouaméni": { "opponents": [ "W98 M2", "W98 M3" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "William Saliba": { "opponents": [ "W98 M1", "W98 M4", "W98 F1", "W98 F2" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jules Koundé": { "opponents": [ "W98 F1", "W98 F2" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Michael Olise": { "opponents": [ "W98 M3" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Robin Risser": { "opponents": [ "W98 F1", "W98 F2" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Dayot Upamecano": { "opponents": [ "W98 F1" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Ousmane Dembélé": { "opponents": [ "W98 D1", "W98 D3" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "W98 D2": { "opponents": [ "Désiré Doué", "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "W98 D3": { "opponents": [ "Désiré Doué" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "W98 M2": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé", "Aurélien Tchouaméni" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "W98 D4": { "opponents": [ "Rayan Cherki" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "W98 D1": { "opponents": [ "Warren Zaïre-Emery" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "W98 M1": { "opponents": [ "William Saliba", "Rayan Cherki" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "W98 M3": { "opponents": [ "Aurélien Tchouaméni", "Michael Olise" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "W98 M4": { "opponents": [ "William Saliba", "Warren Zaïre-Emery" ], "primary_zone": "RM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "W98 F1": { "opponents": [ "William Saliba", "Jules Koundé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "W98 F2": { "opponents": [ "William Saliba", "Jules Koundé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "W98 G1": { "opponents": [ "Ousmane Dembélé", "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~55% possession expected (Michael Olise vs W98 M1). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.97, Away: 0.50. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0005, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9088, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1248, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9913, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8666, "home_midfield_factor": 1.06, "away_midfield_factor": 0.948, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.8799, "away_avg_quality": 0.4374, "avg_quality_gap": 0.4425, "squad_value_gap_log": 6.8711, "top5_value_gap_log": 6.4345, "attack_value_gap_log": 6.6134, "elite_count_gap": 10, "combined_quality_gap": 0.978, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.95, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.6, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0248, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.106, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.978, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.23, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.92, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 2.379, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 0.756, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 2.3788, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.756, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 2.926, "final_away_lambda": 0.696 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-07-12T13:30:47Z" }