{ "match_info": { "home_team": "France", "away_team": "England", "tournament": "FIFA World Cup", "date": "20260718", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-1-2-3" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1364, "match_resolution": "penalties_if_level", "predicted_winner": "France", "tiebreaker": { "applies": true, "method": "penalties_if_level", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.3009, "shootout_home_win_probability": 0.5191, "shootout_away_win_probability": 0.4809, "penalty_home_goals": 6, "penalty_away_goals": 5, "penalty_score": "6-5", "penalty_winner": "France", "penalty_winner_goals": 6, "penalty_loser_goals": 5, "penalty_result": "France wins 6-5 on penalties", "home_advance_probability": 0.544, "away_advance_probability": 0.456, "projected_winner": "France", "projected_winner_probability": 0.544, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Knockout match: a tied scoreline remains possible, then the advancing team is projected through penalties." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1364 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1356 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1236 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1182 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0774 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1236, "0-1": 0.1182, "0-2": 0.0583, "0-3": 0.0189, "0-4": 0.0046, "0-5": 0.0009, "1-0": 0.1364, "1-1": 0.1356, "1-2": 0.0655, "1-3": 0.0213, "1-4": 0.0052, "1-5": 0.001, "2-0": 0.0774, "2-1": 0.0755, "2-2": 0.0369, "2-3": 0.012, "2-4": 0.0029, "2-5": 0.0006, "3-0": 0.029, "3-1": 0.0283, "3-2": 0.0138, "3-3": 0.0045, "3-4": 0.0011, "4-0": 0.0082, "4-1": 0.008, "4-2": 0.0039, "4-3": 0.0013, "5-0": 0.0018, "5-1": 0.0018, "5-2": 0.0009 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3878, "draw": 0.3009, "away_win": 0.3113 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3505, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6495, "btts_yes": 0.422, "btts_no": 0.578, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3769, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3247 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 89.29, "MCR": 89.24, "ATR": 96.12, "GK": 94.1 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 86.28, "MCR": 88.24, "ATR": 90.69, "GK": 90.64 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for France vs England. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Kylian Mbappé", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-1-2-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Rayan Cherki vs Morgan Rogers will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.02, Away: 0.75. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.7, "home_lambda": 1.184, "away_lambda": 1.027 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3878, "draw": 0.3009, "away_win": 0.3113 }, "favorite": "France", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3878, "fair_spread": 0.157, "fair_total": 2.211, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "France", "estimate": 1.184, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "England", "estimate": 1.027, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3505, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.422, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "France", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3769, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "England", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3247, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Kylian Mbappé (France)", "estimate": 0.5476, "probability": 0.5043, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Harry Kane (England)", "estimate": 0.3146, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Kylian Mbappé (France)", "estimate": 0.1368, "probability": 0.2015, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Harry Kane (England)", "estimate": 0.261, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.211, "expected_total_shots": 26, "expected_total_passes": 835, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 17.0, "possession_home_pct": 48.3, "possession_away_pct": 51.7, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "France", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3878, "script": "France is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.16 goals and fair total 2.21.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 13 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; England must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A France lead likely shifts toward control and counters; if level after extra time, penalties are live; France projects as the advancing side at 54.4% overall advancement probability with 30.1% draw pressure." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "England chance creation leans on Harry Kane against Ibrahima Konaté, Malo Gusto in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "France: starters carry the main goal usage through Kylian Mbappé; bench watchlist: Michael Olise, Désiré Doué, Marcus Thuram.", "England: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka, Declan Rice.", "Assist usage should flow through N'Golo Kanté; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: France tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 13 total first-half shots, and 1.11 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If England is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; if level after extra time, penalties are live; France projects as the advancing side at 54.4% overall advancement probability with 30.1% draw pressure." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for France.", "England wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "France": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Kylian Mbappé": { "player_id": 826643, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 180, "market_value": 191000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.5476, "goal_rate": 1.0975, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1368, "key_pass": 2, "rating": 99.1815, "minutes": 86, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 26, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 25, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 47, "possession_lost": 10.9198, "dispossessed": 2.0496, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 2, "xgot": 1.232, "offsides": 2, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 99, "progressive_carries": 5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.21, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Nico O'Reilly, Djed Spence", "opponent_faced": "Nico O'Reilly, Djed Spence", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.5043, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2015, "fifa_overall": 91.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 12813008, "match_date": "2026-07-14 19:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": 16, "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": 58210, "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026", "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Spain", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "France", "opponent": "Spain", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 12813016, "match_date": "2026-07-09", "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Morocco", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "France", "opponent": "Morocco", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 1.3385, "expected_assists": 0.0461, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 4, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 12813010, "match_date": "2026-07-04", "home_team": "Paraguay", "away_team": "France", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "France", "opponent": "Paraguay", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.1738, "expected_assists": 0.0306, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 4, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 12812995, "match_date": "2026-06-30", "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Sweden", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "France", "opponent": "Sweden", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 9.8, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5974, "expected_assists": 0.0985, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 4, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186537, "match_date": "2026-06-26", "home_team": "Norway", "away_team": "France", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "France", "opponent": "Norway", "stats": { "minutes": 87, "rating": 7.4, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.2892, "expected_assists": 0.5773, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 4, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186769, "match_date": "2026-06-22", "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Iraq", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "France", "opponent": "Iraq", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 9.2, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.226, "expected_assists": 0.114, "total_shots": 8, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 4, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 35, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186501, "match_date": "2026-06-16", "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Senegal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "France", "opponent": "Senegal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7638, "expected_assists": 0.0209, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14083731, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2598, "expected_assists": 0.0681, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083702, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5088, "expected_assists": 0.0226, "total_shots": 5, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083649, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Oviedo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1734, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 4, "combined_rank_score": 10.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 18.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.0545, "sofascore_appearances": 11.0, "fifa_rank": 3.0, "fifa_overall": 91.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 8.1815, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kylian Mbappé", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ryu Won-Woo", "ranking": 1 }, { "player_name": "Lamine Yamal", "ranking": 2 }, { "player_name": "Maximiliano Gutiérrez", "ranking": 3 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Erling Haaland", "ranking": 5 }, { "player_name": "Pedri", "ranking": 6 }, { "player_name": "Nico López", "ranking": 7 }, { "player_name": "Andy Vidal", "ranking": 8 }, { "player_name": "James Rodríguez", "ranking": 9 } ] } } }, "Bradley Barcola": { "player_id": 996952, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 12, "height": 182, "market_value": 68000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0067, "goal_rate": 0.3492, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0545, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 91.7495, "minutes": 44, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 22, "possession_lost": 5.9513, "dispossessed": 1.3879, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.644, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 8, "total_progression": 46, "progressive_carries": 2, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "crosses_attempted": 2.6, "duel_win_rate": 0.511, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ezri Konsa", "opponent_faced": "Ezri Konsa", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1525, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1033, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 12813016, "match_date": "2026-07-09", "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Morocco", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "France", "opponent": "Morocco", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0491, "expected_assists": 0.044, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 12813010, "match_date": "2026-07-04", "home_team": "Paraguay", "away_team": "France", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "France", "opponent": "Paraguay", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0398, "expected_assists": 0.0401, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 12812995, "match_date": "2026-06-30", "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Sweden", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "France", "opponent": "Sweden", "stats": 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Douvikas", "ranking": 78 }, { "player_name": "Declan Rice", "ranking": 79 }, { "player_name": "Ousmane Dembélé", "ranking": 80 }, { "player_name": "Juan Cornejo", "ranking": 81 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Youri Tielemans", "ranking": 83 }, { "player_name": "Toti Gomes", "ranking": 84 }, { "player_name": "Lionel Messi", "ranking": 85 }, { "player_name": "Tolu Arokodare", "ranking": 86 }, { "player_name": "Phil Foden", "ranking": 87 } ] } } }, "Declan Rice": { "player_id": 856714, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 188, "market_value": 114000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0422, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "rating": 94.9294, "minutes": 24, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 7, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 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"latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 12812996, "match_date": "2026-07-15 19:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": 16, "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": 58210, "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026", "home_team": "England", "away_team": "Argentina", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "England", "opponent": "Argentina", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 12813017, "match_date": "2026-07-11 21:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": 16, "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": 58210, "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026", "home_team": "Norway", "away_team": "England", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 110, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "AET", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "England", "opponent": "Norway", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 12813007, "match_date": "2026-07-06", "home_team": "Mexico", "away_team": "England", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "England", "opponent": "Mexico", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0064, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 26, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 12813020, "match_date": "2026-07-01", "home_team": "England", "away_team": "DR Congo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "England", "opponent": "DR Congo", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2976, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 52, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186672, "match_date": "2026-06-23", "home_team": "England", "away_team": "Ghana", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "England", "opponent": "Ghana", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1173, "expected_assists": 0.2364, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 6, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186504, "match_date": "2026-06-17", "home_team": "England", "away_team": "Croatia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "England", "opponent": "Croatia", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0418, "expected_assists": 0.2217, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 32, "key_pass": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14023950, "match_date": "2026-05-18", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.041, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 83, "accurate_pass": 73, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023942, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.3798, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 42, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632635, "match_date": "2026-05-05", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0978, "expected_assists": 0.0696, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 62, "accurate_pass": 56, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632633, "match_date": "2026-04-29", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0496, "expected_assists": 0.0251, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 89, "accurate_pass": 83, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 79, "combined_rank_score": 80.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 106.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.4077, "sofascore_appearances": 13.0, "fifa_rank": 55.0, "fifa_overall": 87.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.9294, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Declan Rice", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Abduvokhid Nematov", "ranking": 74 }, { "player_name": "Cristhian Martínez", "ranking": 75 }, { "player_name": "Iker Luque", "ranking": 76 }, { "player_name": "Luka Stankovski", "ranking": 77 }, { "player_name": "Anastasios Douvikas", "ranking": 78 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Ousmane Dembélé", "ranking": 80 }, { "player_name": "Juan Cornejo", "ranking": 81 }, { "player_name": "Jude Bellingham", "ranking": 82 }, { "player_name": "Youri Tielemans", "ranking": 83 }, { "player_name": "Toti Gomes", "ranking": 84 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.03, "expected_assists": 0.98, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 8, "total_passes": 438, "interceptions": 10, "tackles": 12, "avg_rating": 88.41, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.7, "pressing_actions_per_90": 9.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Rayan Cherki", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 98000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.893, "defenders": [ "Marc Guéhi" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.864, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.469, "xg_contribution": 0.3315, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Guéhi", "role": "RB", "market_value": 66000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.531 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rayan Cherki (LW) is evenly matched against Marc Guéhi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. The quality gap is significant (€98M vs €66M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.331 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Kylian Mbappé", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 191000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Nico O'Reilly", "Djed Spence" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.802, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.21, "xg_contribution": 0.557, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.9, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nico O'Reilly", "role": "CB", "market_value": 76000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.79 }, { "player": "Djed Spence", "role": "CB", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.79 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kylian Mbappé (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Nico O'Reilly and Djed Spence in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. The quality gap is significant (€191M vs €54M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.557 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Bradley Barcola", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 68000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.868, "defenders": [ "Ezri Konsa" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.791, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.511, "xg_contribution": 0.0068, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ezri Konsa", "role": "LB", "market_value": 42000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.489 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bradley Barcola (RW) is slightly favored against Ezri Konsa in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. The quality gap is significant (€68M vs €42M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.007 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Ousmane Dembélé", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 97000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.892, "defenders": [ "Kobbie Mainoo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.873, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.444, "xg_contribution": 0.1275, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kobbie Mainoo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 72000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.556 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ousmane Dembélé (CAM) is evenly matched against Kobbie Mainoo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. The quality gap is significant (€97M vs €72M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.128 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Morgan Rogers", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 86000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.887, "defenders": [ "Maxence Lacroix" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.837, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.462, "xg_contribution": 0.0822, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Maxence Lacroix", "role": "RB", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.538 } ], "duel_analysis": "Morgan Rogers (LM) is evenly matched against Maxence Lacroix in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. The quality gap is significant (€86M vs €54M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.082 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Eberechi Eze", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 69000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.869, "defenders": [ "Warren Zaïre-Emery" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.88, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.445, "xg_contribution": 0.0585, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Warren Zaïre-Emery", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 78000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.555 } ], "duel_analysis": "Eberechi Eze (CM) is evenly matched against Warren Zaïre-Emery in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Projected xG contribution: 0.059 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Noni Madueke", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 54000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.837, "defenders": [ "Ibrahima Konaté", "Malo Gusto" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.784, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.204, "xg_contribution": 0.0027, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ibrahima Konaté", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.796 }, { "player": "Malo Gusto", "role": "CB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.796 } ], "duel_analysis": "Noni Madueke (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ibrahima Konaté and Malo Gusto in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 20%. Projected xG contribution: 0.003 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Harry Kane", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 65000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.863, "defenders": [ "Ibrahima Konaté", "Malo Gusto" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.784, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.24, "xg_contribution": 0.607, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ibrahima Konaté", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.76 }, { "player": "Malo Gusto", "role": "CB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.76 } ], "duel_analysis": "Harry Kane (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ibrahima Konaté and Malo Gusto in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. The quality gap is significant (€65M vs €41M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.607 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Marcus Rashford", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 38000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.77, "defenders": [ "Theo Hernández" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.522, "xg_contribution": 0.0016, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Theo Hernández", "role": "LB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.478 } ], "duel_analysis": "Marcus Rashford (RM) is slightly favored against Theo Hernández in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. The quality gap is significant (€38M vs €21M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.002 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.74, "away_midfield_power": 0.876, "home_creative_power": 0.629, "away_creative_power": 0.879, "home_defensive_power": 0.629, "away_defensive_power": 0.872, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.458, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Rayan Cherki", "Warren Zaïre-Emery", "N'Golo Kanté" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Morgan Rogers", "Eberechi Eze", "Kobbie Mainoo" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 48.3, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.7, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.8, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 9.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.3, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.8, "home_throughball_threat": 2.5, "away_throughball_threat": 3.2, "key_personal_duel": "Rayan Cherki vs Morgan Rogers", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.979, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.021 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-1-2-3", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-1-2-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.184, "away_lambda": 1.027, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Rayan Cherki": { "opponents": [ "Marc Guéhi", "Morgan Rogers" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Kylian Mbappé": { "opponents": [ "Nico O'Reilly", "Djed Spence" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Bradley Barcola": { "opponents": [ "Ezri Konsa" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ousmane Dembélé": { "opponents": [ "Kobbie Mainoo" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Maxence Lacroix": { "opponents": [ "Morgan Rogers" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Warren Zaïre-Emery": { "opponents": [ "Eberechi Eze", "Kobbie Mainoo" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ibrahima Konaté": { "opponents": [ "Noni Madueke", "Harry Kane" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Malo Gusto": { "opponents": [ "Noni Madueke", "Harry Kane" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Theo Hernández": { "opponents": [ "Marcus Rashford" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "N'Golo Kanté": { "opponents": [ "Eberechi Eze" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Mike Maignan": { "opponents": [ "Marcus Rashford", "Harry Kane" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Marc Guéhi": { "opponents": [ "Rayan Cherki" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nico O'Reilly": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Djed Spence": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ezri Konsa": { "opponents": [ "Bradley Barcola" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Kobbie Mainoo": { "opponents": [ "Ousmane Dembélé", "Warren Zaïre-Emery" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Morgan Rogers": { "opponents": [ "Maxence Lacroix", "Rayan Cherki" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Eberechi Eze": { "opponents": [ "Warren Zaïre-Emery", "N'Golo Kanté" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Noni Madueke": { "opponents": [ "Ibrahima Konaté", "Malo Gusto" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Harry Kane": { "opponents": [ "Ibrahima Konaté", "Malo Gusto" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Marcus Rashford": { "opponents": [ "Theo Hernández" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jordan Pickford": { "opponents": [ "Ousmane Dembélé", "Bradley Barcola" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Rayan Cherki vs Morgan Rogers will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.02, Away: 0.75. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9575, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9234, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1759, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1716, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.878, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8952, "home_midfield_factor": 0.979, "away_midfield_factor": 1.021, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.7926, "away_avg_quality": 0.8357, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0431, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.1434, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.3577, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.3261, "elite_count_gap": -1, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0163, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0693, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.088, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.184, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.027, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.1843, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.027, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 1.184, "final_away_lambda": 1.027 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-07-18T13:30:52Z" }