{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Spain", "away_team": "W102", "tournament": "World Championship", "date": "20260719", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-4-2" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "2-0", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.136, "match_resolution": "penalties_if_level", "predicted_winner": "Spain", "tiebreaker": { "applies": true, "method": "penalties_if_level", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.1618, "shootout_home_win_probability": 0.62, "shootout_away_win_probability": 0.38, "penalty_home_goals": 4, "penalty_away_goals": 2, "penalty_score": "4-2", "penalty_winner": "Spain", "penalty_winner_goals": 4, "penalty_loser_goals": 2, "penalty_result": "Spain wins 4-2 on penalties", "home_advance_probability": 0.8518, "away_advance_probability": 0.1482, "projected_winner": "Spain", "projected_winner_probability": 0.8518, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Knockout match: a tied scoreline remains possible, then the advancing team is projected through penalties." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.136 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1156 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.1065 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0899 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0769 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0496, "0-1": 0.0323, "0-2": 0.0108, "0-3": 0.0024, "1-0": 0.1156, "1-1": 0.0769, "1-2": 0.0253, "1-3": 0.0056, "1-4": 0.0009, "2-0": 0.136, "2-1": 0.0899, "2-2": 0.0297, "2-3": 0.0066, "2-4": 0.0011, "3-0": 0.1065, "3-1": 0.0704, "3-2": 0.0233, "3-3": 0.0051, "3-4": 0.0008, "4-0": 0.0625, "4-1": 0.0413, "4-2": 0.0137, "4-3": 0.003, "5-0": 0.0294, "5-1": 0.0194, "5-2": 0.0064, "5-3": 0.0014, "6-0": 0.0115, "6-1": 0.0076, "6-2": 0.0025, "6-3": 0.0006, "7-0": 0.0039, "7-1": 0.0025, "7-2": 0.0008, "8-0": 0.0011, "8-1": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.7514, "draw": 0.1618, "away_win": 0.0868 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5789, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4211, "btts_yes": 0.4378, "btts_no": 0.5622, "home_clean_sheet": 0.5162, "away_clean_sheet": 0.0955 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 89.51, "MCR": 95.89, "ATR": 90.08, "GK": 90.23 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 6.8, "MCR": 6.9, "ATR": 6.9, "GK": 6.8 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Spain vs W102. Most likely scoreline: 2-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Lamine Yamal, Ferran Torres", "tactical_analysis": "4-2-3-1 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition. Home midfield dominates with ~55% possession expected (Lamine Yamal vs W102 M1). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.64, Away: 0.34. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.84, "home_lambda": 2.472, "away_lambda": 0.696 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.7514, "draw": 0.1618, "away_win": 0.0868 }, "favorite": "Spain", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7514, "fair_spread": 1.776, "fair_total": 3.168, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Spain", "estimate": 2.472, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "W102", "estimate": 0.696, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5789, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4378, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Spain", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5162, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "W102", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0955, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ferran Torres (Spain)", "estimate": 0.5812, "probability": 0.5352, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "W102 F2 (W102)", "estimate": 0.1735, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Lamine Yamal (Spain)", "estimate": 0.277, "probability": 0.2006, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "W102 M1 (W102)", "estimate": 0.0951, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.168, "expected_total_shots": 24, "expected_total_passes": 1099, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.8, "possession_home_pct": 54.9, "possession_away_pct": 45.1, "notes": "Spain projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Spain", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7514, "script": "Spain is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +1.78 goals and fair total 3.17.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; W102 must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Spain lead likely shifts toward control and counters; if level after extra time, penalties are live; Spain projects as the advancing side at 85.2% overall advancement probability with 16.2% draw pressure." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Spain chance creation leans on Ferran Torres against W102 D2, W102 D3 in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; Spain projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Spain: starters carry the main goal usage through Lamine Yamal, Ferran Torres; bench watchlist: Samu Aghehowa, Yéremy Pino.", "W102: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: W102 SUB F6, W102 SUB F7, W102 SUB M4.", "Assist usage should flow through Lamine Yamal; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Spain tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.58 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If W102 is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; if level after extra time, penalties are live; Spain projects as the advancing side at 85.2% overall advancement probability with 16.2% draw pressure." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Spain.", "W102 wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Spain": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Joan García": { "player_id": 930267, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 193, "market_value": 41000000, "stats": { "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.2386, "rating": 90.2285, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 26, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 42, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 1.0858, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 3, "sweeper_accurate": 3, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 5.4289, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 28, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26, "expected_saves": 0.72, "high_pressure_saves": 0.28, "shots_faced": 1.5, "opponent_faced": "W102 F1, W102 M1", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083666, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Real Betis", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 27, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.1397 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632089, "match_date": "2026-04-14", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 28, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.7889 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632085, "match_date": "2026-04-08", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 18, "ball_recovery": 2, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -1.1672 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631368, "match_date": "2026-03-18", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 24, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.7449 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631347, "match_date": "2026-03-10", "home_team": "Newcastle United", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 25, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 13, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.0031 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 357, "combined_rank_score": 189.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 124.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.34, "sofascore_appearances": 30.0, "fifa_rank": 254.0, "fifa_overall": 83.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.2285, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Joan García", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Mateo Cassierra", "ranking": 352 }, { "player_name": "Iñigo Martínez", "ranking": 353 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo De Paul", "ranking": 354 }, { "player_name": "Juan Santos da Silva", "ranking": 355 }, { "player_name": "Ruud Nijstad", "ranking": 356 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Mattia Zaccagni", "ranking": 358 }, { "player_name": "Aníbal Moreno", "ranking": 359 }, { "player_name": "Pedro Porro", "ranking": 360 }, { "player_name": "Arthur Cabral", "ranking": 361 }, { "player_name": "Kingsley Coman", "ranking": 362 } ] } } }, "Pau Cubarsí": { "player_id": 1402913, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 184, "market_value": 75000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 89.955, "minutes": 93, "total_pass": 88, "accurate_pass": 84, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 47, "accurate_own_half_passes": 46, "total_opp_half_passes": 41, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 38, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 98, "possession_lost": 4.6528, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1733, "expected_assists": 0.0779, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.1113, "ball_carries": 33, "total_progression": 151, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 2, "tackles_in_zone": 1.2, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.3, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "W102 F1", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0642, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0548, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 12813008, "match_date": "2026-07-14 19:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": 16, "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": 58210, "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026", "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Spain", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Spain", "opponent": "France", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 12812994, "match_date": "2026-07-10", "home_team": "Spain", "away_team": "Belgium", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Spain", "opponent": "Belgium", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0305, "expected_assists": 0.2719, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 91, "accurate_pass": 89, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 12812990, "match_date": "2026-07-06", "home_team": "Portugal", "away_team": "Spain", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Spain", "opponent": "Portugal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0165, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 77, "accurate_pass": 71, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 12813004, "match_date": "2026-07-02", "home_team": "Spain", "away_team": "Austria", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Spain", "opponent": "Austria", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0224, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 78, "accurate_pass": 72, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186841, "match_date": "2026-06-27", "home_team": "Uruguay", "away_team": "Spain", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Spain", "opponent": "Uruguay", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1242, "expected_assists": 0.0254, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 86, "accurate_pass": 84, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186840, "match_date": "2026-06-21", "home_team": "Spain", "away_team": "Saudi Arabia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Spain", "opponent": "Saudi Arabia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2038, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 99, "accurate_pass": 98, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186783, "match_date": "2026-06-15", "home_team": "Spain", "away_team": "Cabo Verde", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Spain", "opponent": "Cabo Verde", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0266, "expected_assists": 0.0936, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 109, "accurate_pass": 107, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14083603, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Deportivo Alavés", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 59, "accurate_pass": 57, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": 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"crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.2763, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0481, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "W102 SUB F7", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } } }, "substitutes": { "W102 SUB F6": { "player_id": 10134165, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 0, "height": 180, "market_value": 0, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0488, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.2763, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0481, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "W102 SUB F6", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } }, "W102 SUB F7": { "player_id": 10134166, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 0, "height": 180, "market_value": 0, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0488, "goal_rate": 0.0393, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0172, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 25, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.2763, "dispossessed": 1.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0481, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 13, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "W102 SUB F7", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } }, "W102 SUB M4": { "player_id": 10134163, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 0, "height": 180, "market_value": 0, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0232, "expected_goals": 0.0152, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "rating": 6.9, "minutes": 22, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 16, "possession_lost": 1.9775, "dispossessed": 0.7, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0146, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0132, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 18, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.499, "bench_expected_minutes": 21.97, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.415, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "W102 SUB M4", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7, "expected_assists": 0.7, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 475, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 18, "avg_rating": 6.85, "possession_estimated_pct": 45.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Pedri", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 164000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "W102 D4" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.664, "xg_contribution": 0.0496, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "W102 D4", "role": "RB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.336 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pedri (LW) has a clear attacking advantage against W102 D4 in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 66%. The quality gap is significant (€164M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.050 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Lamine Yamal", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 215000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "W102 D1" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.688, "xg_contribution": 0.1968, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "W102 D1", "role": "LB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.312 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lamine Yamal (RW) has a clear attacking advantage against W102 D1 in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 69%. The quality gap is significant (€215M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.197 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Dani Olmo", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 58000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.848, "defenders": [ "W102 M2" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.601, "xg_contribution": 0.1287, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "W102 M2", "role": "CM", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.399 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dani Olmo (CAM) has a clear attacking advantage against W102 M2 in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 60%. The quality gap is significant (€58M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.129 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Ferran Torres", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 54000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.837, "defenders": [ "W102 D2", "W102 D3" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.4, "xg_contribution": 0.224, "shots_in_zone": 2.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "W102 D2", "role": "CB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.6 }, { "player": "W102 D3", "role": "CB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.6 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ferran Torres (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against W102 D2 and W102 D3 in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 40%. The quality gap is significant (€54M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.224 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Martín Zubimendi", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 82000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.884, "defenders": [ "W102 M2" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.601, "xg_contribution": 0.0443, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "W102 M2", "role": "CM", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.399 } ], "duel_analysis": "Martín Zubimendi (CDM) has a clear attacking advantage against W102 M2 in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 60%. The quality gap is significant (€82M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.044 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "W102 F1", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Pau Cubarsí", "Eric García" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.811, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1457, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pau Cubarsí", "role": "CB", "market_value": 75000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Eric García", "role": "CB", "market_value": 34000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "W102 F1 (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Pau Cubarsí and Eric García in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €54M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.146 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "W102 M1", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Pedro Porro" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.764, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.341, "xg_contribution": 0.0714, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pedro Porro", "role": "RB", "market_value": 37000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.659 } ], "duel_analysis": "W102 M1 (LM) faces tough defensive resistance against Pedro Porro in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €37M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.071 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "W102 M4", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Marc Cucurella" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.831, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.303, "xg_contribution": 0.0669, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Cucurella", "role": "LB", "market_value": 52000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.697 } ], "duel_analysis": "W102 M4 (RM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Marc Cucurella in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €52M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.067 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "W102 M2", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 3000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.437, "defenders": [ "Martín Zubimendi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.884, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.249, "xg_contribution": 0.0604, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Martín Zubimendi", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 82000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.4, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.751 } ], "duel_analysis": "W102 M2 (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Martín Zubimendi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 25%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €82M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.060 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.926, "away_midfield_power": 0.462, "home_creative_power": 0.955, "away_creative_power": 0.503, "home_defensive_power": 0.751, "away_defensive_power": 0.393, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.667, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Lamine Yamal", "Pedri", "Martín Zubimendi", "Rodri", "Dani Olmo" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "W102 M1", "W102 M2", "W102 M3", "W102 M4" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 54.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 45.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 7.2, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.5, "home_throughball_threat": 3.5, "away_throughball_threat": 2.1, "key_personal_duel": "Lamine Yamal vs W102 M1", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.066, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.949 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.07, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.04, "formation_verdict": "4-2-3-1 creates structural superiority against 4-4-2. Home team should exploit wider spaces and numerical advantages in transition." }, "home_lambda": 2.472, "away_lambda": 0.696, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Pedri": { "opponents": [ "W102 D4", "W102 M4" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lamine Yamal": { "opponents": [ "W102 D1", "W102 M2" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dani Olmo": { "opponents": [ "W102 M2" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ferran Torres": { "opponents": [ "W102 D2", "W102 D3" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Martín Zubimendi": { "opponents": [ "W102 M2", "W102 M3" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pau Cubarsí": { "opponents": [ "W102 F1" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Eric García": { "opponents": [ "W102 F1" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pedro Porro": { "opponents": [ "W102 M1" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marc Cucurella": { "opponents": [ "W102 M4" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Rodri": { "opponents": [ "W102 M1" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Joan García": { "opponents": [ "W102 F2", "W102 F1" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "W102 D4": { "opponents": [ "Pedri" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "W102 D1": { "opponents": [ "Lamine Yamal" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "W102 M2": { "opponents": [ "Dani Olmo", "Martín Zubimendi", "Lamine Yamal" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "W102 D2": { "opponents": [ "Ferran Torres" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "W102 D3": { "opponents": [ "Ferran Torres" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "W102 F1": { "opponents": [ "Pau Cubarsí", "Eric García" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "W102 M1": { "opponents": [ "Pedro Porro", "Rodri" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "W102 M4": { "opponents": [ "Marc Cucurella", "Pedri" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "W102 M3": { "opponents": [ "Martín Zubimendi" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "W102 G1": { "opponents": [ "Ferran Torres", "Rodri" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "W102 F2": { "opponents": [ "Pau Cubarsí", "Marc Cucurella" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~55% possession expected (Lamine Yamal vs W102 M1). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.64, Away: 0.34. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0005, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8678, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0811, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9913, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8778, "home_midfield_factor": 1.066, "away_midfield_factor": 0.949, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.8436, "away_avg_quality": 0.4374, "avg_quality_gap": 0.4062, "squad_value_gap_log": 6.7226, "top5_value_gap_log": 6.3902, "attack_value_gap_log": 6.4505, "elite_count_gap": 8, "combined_quality_gap": 1.3213, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.95, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.6, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0152, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.106, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 1.3213, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.23, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.92, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 2.01, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 0.756, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 2.0102, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.756, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": true, "final_home_lambda": 2.472, "final_away_lambda": 0.696 } }, "home_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "away_standing": { "available": false, "team_position": null, "opponent_position": null, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": null, "defense_concede_index": null, "form_multiplier": null, "team_attack_rate_contextual": null, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": null, "team_ppg": null, "opponent_ppg": null }, "timestamp": "2026-07-17T13:30:54Z" }