{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Coventry", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260821", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "3-0", "home_goals": 3, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1069, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Arsenal", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.0635, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.1069 }, { "score": "4-0", "probability": 0.1022 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0838 }, { "score": "5-0", "probability": 0.0782 }, { "score": "3-1", "probability": 0.0695 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0115, "0-1": 0.0074, "0-2": 0.0024, "0-3": 0.0005, "1-0": 0.0438, "1-1": 0.0286, "1-2": 0.0093, "1-3": 0.002, "2-0": 0.0838, "2-1": 0.0545, "2-2": 0.0177, "2-3": 0.0038, "2-4": 0.0006, "3-0": 0.1069, "3-1": 0.0695, "3-2": 0.0226, "3-3": 0.0049, "3-4": 0.0008, "4-0": 0.1022, "4-1": 0.0664, "4-2": 0.0216, "4-3": 0.0047, "4-4": 0.0008, "5-0": 0.0782, "5-1": 0.0508, "5-2": 0.0165, "5-3": 0.0036, "5-4": 0.0006, "6-0": 0.0498, "6-1": 0.0324, "6-2": 0.0105, "6-3": 0.0023, "7-0": 0.0272, "7-1": 0.0177, "7-2": 0.0058, "7-3": 0.0012, "8-0": 0.013, "8-1": 0.0085, "8-2": 0.0028, "8-3": 0.0006, "9-0": 0.0055, "9-1": 0.0036, "9-2": 0.0012 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.9088, "draw": 0.0635, "away_win": 0.0276 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.8225, "under_2_5_goals": 0.1775, "btts_yes": 0.4675, "btts_no": 0.5325, "home_clean_sheet": 0.522, "away_clean_sheet": 0.022 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 88.13, "MCR": 93.03, "ATR": 92.51, "GK": 94.61 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 78.13, "MCR": 78.5, "ATR": 76.41, "GK": 78.97 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Arsenal vs Coventry. Most likely scoreline: 3-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Kai Havertz, Christos Tzolis (2)", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Declan Rice vs Caleb Yirenkyi). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.30, Away: 0.35. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle." }, "confidence": 0.94, "home_lambda": 3.825, "away_lambda": 0.65 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.9088, "draw": 0.0635, "away_win": 0.0276 }, "favorite": "Arsenal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.9088, "fair_spread": 3.175, "fair_total": 4.475, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Arsenal", "estimate": 3.825, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Coventry", "estimate": 0.65, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.8225, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4675, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Arsenal", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.522, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Coventry", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.022, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Christos Tzolis (Arsenal)", "estimate": 1.6268, "probability": 0.7387, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Loum Tchaouna (Coventry)", "estimate": 0.2111, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Christos Tzolis (Arsenal)", "estimate": 0.5855, "probability": 0.4761, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Frank Onyeka (Coventry)", "estimate": 0.0999, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 4.475, "expected_total_shots": 21, "expected_total_passes": 811, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.1, "possession_home_pct": 53.3, "possession_away_pct": 46.7, "notes": "Arsenal projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Arsenal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.9088, "script": "Arsenal is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +3.17 goals and fair total 4.47.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 10 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Coventry must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Arsenal lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Arsenal chance creation leans on Christos Tzolis against Jay DaSilva in Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle; Arsenal projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Arsenal: starters carry the main goal usage through Kai Havertz, Christos Tzolis (2); bench watchlist: Viktor Gyökeres, Noni Madueke.", "Coventry: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Jack Rudoni, Ephron Mason-Clark, Sidiki Cherif.", "Assist usage should flow through Christos Tzolis; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Arsenal tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 10 total first-half shots, and 2.24 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Coventry is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Arsenal.", "Coventry wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Arsenal": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Kai Havertz": { "player_id": 836705, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 29, "height": 193, "market_value": 53000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.4438, "goal_rate": 0.0022, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.116, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 89.4254, "minutes": 51, "total_shots": 3, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 16, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 6.8213, "dispossessed": 1.6503, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 2, "xgot": 0.8912, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.343, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Bobby Thomas, Milan van Ewijk", "opponent_faced": "Bobby Thomas, Milan van Ewijk", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.5377, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0345, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 12813014, "match_date": "2026-06-29 20:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": 16, "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": 58210, "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026", "home_team": "Germany", "away_team": "Paraguay", "home_score_current": 4.0, "away_score_current": 5.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 120, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "AP", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Germany", "opponent": "Paraguay", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 15186907, "match_date": "2026-06-25", "home_team": "Ecuador", "away_team": "Germany", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Germany", "opponent": "Ecuador", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0876, "expected_assists": 0.0077, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186905, "match_date": "2026-06-20", "home_team": "Germany", "away_team": "Côte d'Ivoire", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Germany", "opponent": "Côte d'Ivoire", "stats": { "minutes": 85, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2098, "expected_assists": 0.0143, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 21, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 5, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186899, "match_date": "2026-06-14", "home_team": "Germany", "away_team": "Curaçao", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Germany", "opponent": "Curaçao", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.5, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.012, "expected_assists": 0.2636, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 38, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14023963, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.3989, "expected_assists": 0.1832, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023950, "match_date": "2026-05-18", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Burnley", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Burnley", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3932, "expected_assists": 0.3301, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023942, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0041, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632631, "match_date": "2026-04-15", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Sporting CP", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Sporting CP", "stats": { "minutes": 34, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632086, "match_date": "2026-04-07", "home_team": "Sporting CP", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Sporting CP", "stats": { "minutes": 20, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7525, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "clearances": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631372, "match_date": "2026-03-17", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Bayer 04 Leverkusen", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Bayer 04 Leverkusen", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0253, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 5, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 1754, "combined_rank_score": 267.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 140.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3333, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 395.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.4254, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Kai Havertz", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Jovan Šljivić", "ranking": 1749 }, { "player_name": "Samuel", "ranking": 1750 }, { "player_name": "Vasco Moreira", "ranking": 1751 }, { "player_name": "Oumar Diouf", "ranking": 1752 }, { "player_name": "Ethan Duncan Brooks", "ranking": 1753 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Fabinho", "ranking": 1755 }, { "player_name": "Seung-gun Kim", "ranking": 1756 }, { "player_name": "Sherzod Nasrullaev", "ranking": 1757 }, { "player_name": "Jun-sang Lee", "ranking": 1758 }, { "player_name": "Boburbek Yuldashov", "ranking": 1759 } ] } } }, "Christos Tzolis": { "player_id": 1031259, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 180, "market_value": 42000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 5, "expected_assists": 0.5855, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 1.6268, "rating": 89.3211, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 39, "ball_recovery": 4, "duels_won": 5, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 39, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 30, "crosses_total": 7, "crosses_accurate": 3, "touches": 75, "possession_lost": 20.0058, "dispossessed": 1.4461, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 3, "goal_rate": 1.0873, "goals": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 3, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.5871, "ball_carries": 35, "total_progression": 231, "progressive_carries": 11, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.3, "crosses_attempted": 2.5, "duel_win_rate": 0.648, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jay DaSilva", "opponent_faced": "Jay DaSilva", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 2, "goal_probability": 0.7387, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.4761, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15858582, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Club Brugge KV", "away_team": "KAA Gent", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Club Brugge KV", "opponent": "KAA Gent", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 10.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.2634, "expected_assists": 1.2626, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 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"ranking": 18362 }, { "player_name": "Lukas Görtler", "ranking": 18363 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Luciano Boggio", "ranking": 18365 }, { "player_name": "Antonio Sánchez", "ranking": 18366 }, { "player_name": "Christian Ordoñez", "ranking": 18367 }, { "player_name": "Liberato Cacace", "ranking": 18368 }, { "player_name": "Oriol Rey", "ranking": 18369 } ] } } }, "Jack Rudoni": { "player_id": 979565, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 185, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0264, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0211, "rating": 81.0872, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.563, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 18920, "combined_rank_score": 2412.0, "ranking_source": "fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "missing_sofascore_player_rating", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 2412.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.0872, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jack Rudoni", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Niccolò Pisilli", "ranking": 18915 }, { "player_name": "Adrián Bernabé", "ranking": 18916 }, { "player_name": "Sam Byram", "ranking": 18917 }, { "player_name": "Yang Hyun-Jun", "ranking": 18918 }, { "player_name": "Anderson Santamaría", "ranking": 18919 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Isak Jansson", "ranking": 18921 }, { "player_name": "Mateo Coronel", "ranking": 18922 }, { "player_name": "Timothé Cognat", "ranking": 18923 }, { "player_name": "Jin-seob Park", "ranking": 18924 }, { "player_name": "Augusto Solari", "ranking": 18925 } ] } } }, "Ephron Mason-Clark": { "player_id": 861315, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 178, "market_value": 17200000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0259, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0207, "rating": 78.0094, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.528, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.63, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.563, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 21727, "combined_rank_score": 4622.0, "ranking_source": "fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "missing_sofascore_player_rating", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 4622.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.0094, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ephron Mason-Clark", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Patrick Twumasi", "ranking": 21722 }, { "player_name": "Tyronne Ebuehi", "ranking": 21723 }, { "player_name": "Isaak Davies", "ranking": 21724 }, { "player_name": "Kim Jin Kyu", "ranking": 21725 }, { "player_name": "Bruninho", "ranking": 21726 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Matteo Pérez Vinlöf", "ranking": 21728 }, { "player_name": "Sergio Córdova", "ranking": 21729 }, { "player_name": "Álvaro Rodriguez", "ranking": 21730 }, { "player_name": "Mateo Pellegrino", "ranking": 21731 }, { "player_name": "Nicolas Schmid", "ranking": 21732 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.65, "expected_assists": 0.5, "total_shots": 9, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 398, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 6, "avg_rating": 78.03, "possession_estimated_pct": 46.7, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Christos Tzolis", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 42000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.791, "defenders": [ "Jay DaSilva" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.507, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.648, "xg_contribution": 0.8306, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jay DaSilva", "role": "RB", "market_value": 8700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.352 } ], "duel_analysis": "Christos Tzolis (LW) has a clear attacking advantage against Jay DaSilva in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 65%. The quality gap is significant (€42M vs €9M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.831 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Bukayo Saka", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 115000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.897, "defenders": [ "Aurèle Amenda" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.526, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.587, "xg_contribution": 0.002, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aurèle Amenda", "role": "LB", "market_value": 10300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.413 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bukayo Saka (RW) is slightly favored against Aurèle Amenda in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 59%. The quality gap is significant (€115M vs €10M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.002 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Myles Lewis-Skelly", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 48000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.817, "defenders": [ "Caleb Yirenkyi", "Matt Grimes" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.541, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.356, "xg_contribution": 0.2219, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Caleb Yirenkyi", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 18700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.644 }, { "player": "Matt Grimes", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.644 } ], "duel_analysis": "Myles Lewis-Skelly (CAM) faces tough defensive resistance against Caleb Yirenkyi and Matt Grimes in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 36%. The quality gap is significant (€48M vs €12M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.222 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Kai Havertz", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 53000000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.834, "defenders": [ "Bobby Thomas", "Milan van Ewijk" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.627, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.343, "xg_contribution": 0.1701, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Bobby Thomas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 16500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.657 }, { "player": "Milan van Ewijk", "role": "CB", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.657 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kai Havertz (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Bobby Thomas and Milan van Ewijk in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€53M vs €20M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.170 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Martin Ødegaard", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 77000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.879, "defenders": [ "Caleb Yirenkyi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.618, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.521, "xg_contribution": 0.072, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Caleb Yirenkyi", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 18700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.479 } ], "duel_analysis": "Martin Ødegaard (CDM) is slightly favored against Caleb Yirenkyi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. The quality gap is significant (€77M vs €19M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.072 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Tatsuhiro Sakamoto", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 4300000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.454, "defenders": [ "Gabriel Magalhães" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.871, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.232, "xg_contribution": 0.0356, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gabriel Magalhães", "role": "RB", "market_value": 70000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.5, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.768 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tatsuhiro Sakamoto (LW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Gabriel Magalhães in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 23%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €70M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.036 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Loum Tchaouna", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 13800000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.566, "defenders": [ "Riccardo Calafiori" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.834, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.327, "xg_contribution": 0.1318, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Riccardo Calafiori", "role": "LB", "market_value": 53000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.673 } ], "duel_analysis": "Loum Tchaouna (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Riccardo Calafiori in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€14M vs €53M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.132 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Frank Onyeka", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 7700000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.495, "defenders": [ "Martin Ødegaard", "Declan Rice" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.888, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0322, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Martin Ødegaard", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Declan Rice", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 114000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Frank Onyeka (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Martin Ødegaard and Declan Rice in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€8M vs €96M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.032 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ellis Simms", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 11500000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.54, "defenders": [ "Cristhian Mosquera", "Ben White" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.732, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0979, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Cristhian Mosquera", "role": "CB", "market_value": 38000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Ben White", "role": "CB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ellis Simms (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Cristhian Mosquera and Ben White in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€12M vs €32M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.098 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Caleb Yirenkyi", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 18700000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.618, "defenders": [ "Martin Ødegaard" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.879, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.319, "xg_contribution": 0.0545, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Martin Ødegaard", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.681 } ], "duel_analysis": "Caleb Yirenkyi (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Martin Ødegaard in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 32%. The quality gap is significant (€19M vs €77M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.055 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.856, "away_midfield_power": 0.533, "home_creative_power": 0.984, "away_creative_power": 0.4, "home_defensive_power": 0.727, "away_defensive_power": 0.478, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.616, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Christos Tzolis", "Martin Ødegaard", "Declan Rice" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Frank Onyeka", "Tatsuhiro Sakamoto", "Caleb Yirenkyi", "Matt Grimes" ], "possession_advantage": "home", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 53.3, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 46.7, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.4, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7, "home_key_passes_projected": 7.4, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.9, "home_throughball_threat": 3.6, "away_throughball_threat": 1.8, "key_personal_duel": "Declan Rice vs Caleb Yirenkyi", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.05, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.954 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 3.825, "away_lambda": 0.65, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Christos Tzolis": { "opponents": [ "Jay DaSilva", "Matt Grimes" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Bukayo Saka": { "opponents": [ "Aurèle Amenda" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Myles Lewis-Skelly": { "opponents": [ "Caleb Yirenkyi", "Matt Grimes" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Kai Havertz": { "opponents": [ "Bobby Thomas", "Milan van Ewijk" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Martin Ødegaard": { "opponents": [ "Caleb Yirenkyi", "Frank Onyeka", "Tatsuhiro Sakamoto" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gabriel Magalhães": { "opponents": [ "Tatsuhiro Sakamoto" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Riccardo Calafiori": { "opponents": [ "Loum Tchaouna" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Declan Rice": { "opponents": [ "Frank Onyeka", "Caleb Yirenkyi" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Cristhian Mosquera": { "opponents": [ "Ellis Simms" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ben White": { "opponents": [ "Ellis Simms" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "David Raya": { "opponents": [ "Loum Tchaouna", "Ellis Simms" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Jay DaSilva": { "opponents": [ "Christos Tzolis" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Aurèle Amenda": { "opponents": [ "Bukayo Saka" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Caleb Yirenkyi": { "opponents": [ "Myles Lewis-Skelly", "Martin Ødegaard", "Declan Rice" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Matt Grimes": { "opponents": [ "Myles Lewis-Skelly", "Christos Tzolis" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Bobby Thomas": { "opponents": [ "Kai Havertz" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Milan van Ewijk": { "opponents": [ "Kai Havertz" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Tatsuhiro Sakamoto": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Magalhães", "Martin Ødegaard" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Loum Tchaouna": { "opponents": [ "Riccardo Calafiori" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Frank Onyeka": { "opponents": [ "Martin Ødegaard", "Declan Rice" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ellis Simms": { "opponents": [ "Cristhian Mosquera", "Ben White" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Carl Rushworth": { "opponents": [ "Bukayo Saka", "Kai Havertz" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Home midfield dominates with ~53% possession expected (Declan Rice vs Caleb Yirenkyi). Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.30, Away: 0.35. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9503, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8871, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.128, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9605, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8762, "home_midfield_factor": 1.05, "away_midfield_factor": 0.954, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.8283, "away_avg_quality": 0.5425, "avg_quality_gap": 0.2858, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.6071, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.5465, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.7531, "elite_count_gap": 8, "combined_quality_gap": 0.5857, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.95, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.6, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1018, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0217, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.5857, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1514, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9514, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 3.322, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 0.672, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 3.3218, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.6717, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 3.825, "final_away_lambda": 0.65 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 2, "opponent_position": 7, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 7, "opponent_position": 2, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-08-21T13:31:02Z" }