{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260821", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1354, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": null, "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2949, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1354 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1264 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.117 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.114 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.076 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.114, "0-1": 0.1264, "0-2": 0.0723, "0-3": 0.0273, "0-4": 0.0077, "0-5": 0.0018, "1-0": 0.117, "1-1": 0.1354, "1-2": 0.076, "1-3": 0.0287, "1-4": 0.0081, "1-5": 0.0018, "2-0": 0.0621, "2-1": 0.0704, "2-2": 0.0399, "2-3": 0.0151, "2-4": 0.0043, "2-5": 0.001, "3-0": 0.0217, "3-1": 0.0246, "3-2": 0.014, "3-3": 0.0053, "3-4": 0.0015, "4-0": 0.0057, "4-1": 0.0065, "4-2": 0.0037, "4-3": 0.0014, "5-0": 0.0012, "5-1": 0.0014, "5-2": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3316, "draw": 0.2949, "away_win": 0.3735 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3727, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6273, "btts_yes": 0.442, "btts_no": 0.558, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3221, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3499 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 84.08, "MCR": 84.87, "ATR": 86.93, "GK": 85.6 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 82.64, "MCR": 85.86, "ATR": 82.24, "GK": 89.62 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Real Betis vs Real Sociedad. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Antony, Orri Óskarsson", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Antony vs Takefusa Kubo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.69, Away: 0.92. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.71, "home_lambda": 1.05, "away_lambda": 1.133 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3316, "draw": 0.2949, "away_win": 0.3735 }, "favorite": "Real Sociedad", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3735, "fair_spread": -0.083, "fair_total": 2.183, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Real Betis", "estimate": 1.05, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Real Sociedad", "estimate": 1.133, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3727, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.442, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Real Betis", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3221, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Real Sociedad", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3499, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Cucho Hernández (Real Betis)", "estimate": 0.3274, "probability": 0.2939, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Orri Óskarsson (Real Sociedad)", "estimate": 0.5668, "probability": 0.65, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Antony (Real Betis)", "estimate": 0.2519, "probability": 0.4724, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Sergio Gómez (Real Sociedad)", "estimate": 0.2249, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.183, "expected_total_shots": 26, "expected_total_passes": 760, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.8, "possession_home_pct": 49.5, "possession_away_pct": 50.5, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Real Sociedad", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3735, "script": "Real Sociedad is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.08 goals and fair total 2.18.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 13 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Real Betis must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Real Sociedad lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Real Sociedad chance creation leans on Orri Óskarsson against Natan, Marc Bartra in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Real Betis: starters carry the main goal usage through Antony; bench watchlist: Abdessamad Ezzalzouli, Troy Parrott, Gonzalo Petit.", "Real Sociedad: starters carry the main goal usage through Orri Óskarsson; bench watchlist: Mikel Oyarzabal, Jon Gorrotxategi, Wesley.", "Assist usage should flow through Antony; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Real Sociedad tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 13 total first-half shots, and 1.09 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Real Betis is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Real Sociedad.", "Real Betis wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Real Betis": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Cucho Hernández": { "player_id": 887055, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 175, "market_value": 16500000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3274, "goal_rate": 0.0129, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0461, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 86.9286, "minutes": 77, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 15, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 14, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 36, "possession_lost": 12.0448, "dispossessed": 3.0858, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.6892, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 23, "progressive_carries": 2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Jon Martin, Jon Aramburu", "opponent_faced": "Jon Martin, Jon Aramburu", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2939, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0385, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186722, "match_date": "2026-06-18", "home_team": "Uzbekistan", "away_team": "Colombia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Colombia", "opponent": "Uzbekistan", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1253, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 1, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14083710, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 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"league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 12813004, "match_date": "2026-07-02", "home_team": "Spain", "away_team": "Austria", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Spain", "opponent": "Austria", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.2, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.0858, "expected_assists": 0.0295, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 4, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186841, "match_date": "2026-06-27", "home_team": "Uruguay", "away_team": "Spain", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Spain", "opponent": "Uruguay", "stats": { "minutes": 76, "rating": 6.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0162, "expected_assists": 0.008, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186840, "match_date": "2026-06-21", "home_team": "Spain", "away_team": "Saudi Arabia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Spain", "opponent": "Saudi Arabia", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 9.4, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.8012, "expected_assists": 0.4204, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186783, "match_date": "2026-06-15", "home_team": "Spain", "away_team": "Cabo Verde", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Spain", "opponent": "Cabo Verde", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5026, "expected_assists": 0.0482, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14083719, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Espanyol", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0072, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 4, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083687, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": { "minutes": 33, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0267, "expected_assists": 0.2839, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 24, "combined_rank_score": 53.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 35.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.8667, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 72.0, "fifa_overall": 87.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.5059, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Angel Fortuno", "ranking": 19 }, { "player_name": "Hyun-woo Cho", "ranking": 20 }, { "player_name": "Kevin De Bruyne", "ranking": 21 }, { "player_name": "Ljupche Doriev", "ranking": 22 }, { "player_name": "Marko Arnautović", "ranking": 23 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Martin Ødegaard", "ranking": 25 }, { "player_name": "Federico Valverde", "ranking": 26 }, { "player_name": "Bianneider Tamayo", "ranking": 27 }, { "player_name": "Vitinha", "ranking": 28 }, { "player_name": "Pablo Cuñat", "ranking": 29 } ] } } }, "Wesley": { "player_id": 1211632, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 180, "market_value": 5200000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0438, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 83.7279, "minutes": 25, "expected_assists": 0.014, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "key_pass": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.564, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.4, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.535, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 17243, "combined_rank_score": 1169.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 1061.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.42, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 1277.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.7279, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Wesley", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Eric Smith", "ranking": 17238 }, { "player_name": "Saud Abdulhamid", "ranking": 17239 }, { "player_name": "Philip Zinckernagel", "ranking": 17240 }, { "player_name": "Ali Al Musrati", "ranking": 17241 }, { "player_name": "Maximilian Wöber", "ranking": 17242 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Florian Sotoca", "ranking": 17244 }, { "player_name": "Giorgio Scalvini", "ranking": 17245 }, { "player_name": "Albert Rusnák", "ranking": 17246 }, { "player_name": "Rubén Vargas", "ranking": 17247 }, { "player_name": "Teddy Teuma", "ranking": 17248 } ] } } }, "Jon Gorrotxategi": { "player_id": 1216309, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 177, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0009, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "rating": 85.2302, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 5, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 1.0812, "dispossessed": 1.0582, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 8, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.545, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.99, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.535, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083624, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Sociedad", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 57, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 27, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 15346, "combined_rank_score": 946.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 711.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7467, "sofascore_appearances": 30.0, "fifa_rank": 1182.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.2302, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jon Gorrotxategi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Raphael Onyedika", "ranking": 15341 }, { "player_name": "Jordan Henderson", "ranking": 15342 }, { "player_name": "Guus Til", "ranking": 15343 }, { "player_name": "Luis Suárez", "ranking": 15344 }, { "player_name": "Bruma", "ranking": 15345 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Diogo Leite", "ranking": 15347 }, { "player_name": "Maximiliano Romero", "ranking": 15348 }, { "player_name": "Alexis Claude-Maurice", "ranking": 15349 }, { "player_name": "Richard Friday", "ranking": 15350 }, { "player_name": "Julián Quiñones", "ranking": 15351 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.13, "expected_assists": 0.47, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 7, "total_passes": 360, "interceptions": 9, "tackles": 19, "avg_rating": 84.7, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.5, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.1 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Pablo Fornals", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 8400000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.503, "defenders": [ "Sergio Gómez" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.575, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.476, "xg_contribution": 0.1149, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sergio Gómez", "role": "RB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.524 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo Fornals (LW) is evenly matched against Sergio Gómez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Projected xG contribution: 0.115 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Marc Roca", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 4200000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.452, "defenders": [ "Igor Zubeldia" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.478, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.484, "xg_contribution": 0.2136, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Igor Zubeldia", "role": "LB", "market_value": 6300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.516 } ], "duel_analysis": "Marc Roca (RW) is evenly matched against Igor Zubeldia in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Projected xG contribution: 0.214 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Antony", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 37000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.764, "defenders": [ "Luka Sučić", "Ander Barrenetxea" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.568, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.298, "xg_contribution": 0.1042, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Luka Sučić", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 10900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.702 }, { "player": "Ander Barrenetxea", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 17200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.702 } ], "duel_analysis": "Antony (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Luka Sučić and Ander Barrenetxea in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€37M vs €14M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.104 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Cucho Hernández", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 16500000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.595, "defenders": [ "Jon Martin", "Jon Aramburu" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.618, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2096, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jon Martin", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jon Aramburu", "role": "CB", "market_value": 13900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Cucho Hernández (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jon Martin and Jon Aramburu in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.210 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Rodrigo Riquelme", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 4300000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.454, "defenders": [ "Luka Sučić" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.533, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.34, "xg_contribution": 0.0464, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Luka Sučić", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 10900000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.66 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rodrigo Riquelme (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Luka Sučić in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. Projected xG contribution: 0.046 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Carlos Soler", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 6600000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.482, "defenders": [ "Héctor Bellerín" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.431, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.511, "xg_contribution": 0.2298, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Héctor Bellerín", "role": "RB", "market_value": 2500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.489 } ], "duel_analysis": "Carlos Soler (LW) is slightly favored against Héctor Bellerín in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. Projected xG contribution: 0.230 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Yangel Herrera", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 5600000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.47, "defenders": [ "Fran García" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.513, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.516, "xg_contribution": 0.0467, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Fran García", "role": "LB", "market_value": 9200000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.484 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yangel Herrera (RW) is slightly favored against Fran García in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. Projected xG contribution: 0.047 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Takefusa Kubo", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Rodrigo Riquelme", "Facundo Bernal" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.463, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.294, "xg_contribution": 0.0449, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Rodrigo Riquelme", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.706 }, { "player": "Facundo Bernal", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 5800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.706 } ], "duel_analysis": "Takefusa Kubo (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Rodrigo Riquelme and Facundo Bernal in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €5M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.045 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Orri Óskarsson", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Natan", "Marc Bartra" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.549, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.243, "xg_contribution": 0.5422, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Natan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.757 }, { "player": "Marc Bartra", "role": "CB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.757 } ], "duel_analysis": "Orri Óskarsson (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Natan and Marc Bartra in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 24%. Projected xG contribution: 0.542 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Luka Sučić", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 10900000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.533, "defenders": [ "Rodrigo Riquelme" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.454, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.5, "xg_contribution": 0.0515, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Rodrigo Riquelme", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.5 } ], "duel_analysis": "Luka Sučić (CDM) is evenly matched against Rodrigo Riquelme in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. Projected xG contribution: 0.051 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.579, "away_midfield_power": 0.596, "home_creative_power": 0.55, "away_creative_power": 0.44, "home_defensive_power": 0.473, "away_defensive_power": 0.534, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.493, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Rodrigo Riquelme", "Pablo Fornals", "Marc Roca", "Facundo Bernal", "Antony" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Yangel Herrera", "Luka Sučić", "Takefusa Kubo", "Carlos Soler", "Ander Barrenetxea" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.5, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.5, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.1, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.8, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.1, "home_throughball_threat": 2.2, "away_throughball_threat": 1.9, "key_personal_duel": "Antony vs Takefusa Kubo", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.999, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.999 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.05, "away_lambda": 1.133, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Pablo Fornals": { "opponents": [ "Sergio Gómez", "Carlos Soler" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Marc Roca": { "opponents": [ "Igor Zubeldia", "Yangel Herrera" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Antony": { "opponents": [ "Luka Sučić", "Ander Barrenetxea", "Takefusa Kubo" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Cucho Hernández": { "opponents": [ "Jon Martin", "Jon Aramburu" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Rodrigo Riquelme": { "opponents": [ "Luka Sučić", "Takefusa Kubo" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Héctor Bellerín": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Soler" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Fran García": { "opponents": [ "Yangel Herrera" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Facundo Bernal": { "opponents": [ "Takefusa Kubo", "Ander Barrenetxea" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Natan": { "opponents": [ "Orri Óskarsson" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marc Bartra": { "opponents": [ "Orri Óskarsson" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Álvaro Valles": { "opponents": [ "Orri Óskarsson", "Ander Barrenetxea" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Sergio Gómez": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Fornals" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Igor Zubeldia": { "opponents": [ "Marc Roca" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Luka Sučić": { "opponents": [ "Antony", "Rodrigo Riquelme" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ander Barrenetxea": { "opponents": [ "Antony", "Facundo Bernal" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jon Martin": { "opponents": [ "Cucho Hernández" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jon Aramburu": { "opponents": [ "Cucho Hernández" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Carlos Soler": { "opponents": [ "Héctor Bellerín", "Pablo Fornals" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yangel Herrera": { "opponents": [ "Fran García", "Marc Roca" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Takefusa Kubo": { "opponents": [ "Rodrigo Riquelme", "Facundo Bernal", "Antony" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Orri Óskarsson": { "opponents": [ "Natan", "Marc Bartra" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Álex Remiro": { "opponents": [ "Cucho Hernández", "Pablo Fornals" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Antony vs Takefusa Kubo will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.69, Away: 0.92. Home danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9777, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.993, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0529, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.026, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9605, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9865, "home_midfield_factor": 0.999, "away_midfield_factor": 0.999, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.5282, "away_avg_quality": 0.5657, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0375, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.191, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.0065, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.0684, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0506, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0765, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1046, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.05, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.133, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.0505, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.1326, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.05, "final_away_lambda": 1.133 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 14, "opponent_position": 16, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 16, "opponent_position": 14, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-08-21T13:31:23Z" }