{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260822", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-0", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1423, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": null, "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.315, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1423 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.142 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1366 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1309 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0732 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1423, "0-1": 0.142, "0-2": 0.0732, "0-3": 0.0249, "0-4": 0.0063, "0-5": 0.0013, "1-0": 0.1309, "1-1": 0.1366, "1-2": 0.0689, "1-3": 0.0234, "1-4": 0.006, "1-5": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.0623, "2-1": 0.0635, "2-2": 0.0324, "2-3": 0.011, "2-4": 0.0028, "2-5": 0.0006, "3-0": 0.0195, "3-1": 0.0199, "3-2": 0.0102, "3-3": 0.0035, "3-4": 0.0009, "4-0": 0.0046, "4-1": 0.0047, "4-2": 0.0024, "4-3": 0.0008, "5-0": 0.0009, "5-1": 0.0009 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3217, "draw": 0.315, "away_win": 0.3634 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3128, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6872, "btts_yes": 0.3914, "btts_no": 0.6086, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3606, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3902 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 80.95, "MCR": 81.05, "ATR": 84.4, "GK": 85.52 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 84.38, "MCR": 83.54, "ATR": 88.1, "GK": 80.74 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Valencia vs Celta. Most likely scoreline: 0-0. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 7 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "José Luis Gayà (ST) — Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle [0.204 xG]", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Javier Guerra vs Williot Swedberg will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.49, Away: 0.51. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel." }, "confidence": 0.69, "home_lambda": 0.941, "away_lambda": 1.02 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3217, "draw": 0.315, "away_win": 0.3634 }, "favorite": "Celta", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3634, "fair_spread": -0.079, "fair_total": 1.961, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Valencia", "estimate": 0.941, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Celta", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3128, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3914, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Valencia", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Celta", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3902, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Justin De Haas (Valencia)", "estimate": 0.5033, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Miguel Román (Celta)", "estimate": 0.2556, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Jesús Vázquez (Valencia)", "estimate": 0.1183, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Sergio Carreira (Celta)", "estimate": 0.1248, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 1.961, "expected_total_shots": 26, "expected_total_passes": 799, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.2, "possession_home_pct": 49.5, "possession_away_pct": 50.5, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Celta", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3634, "script": "Celta is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.08 goals and fair total 1.96.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 13 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Valencia must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Celta lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Valencia chance creation leans on José Luis Gayà against Marcos Alonso, Carl Starfelt in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Valencia: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Largie Ramazani, Umar Sadiq.", "Celta: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Fer López, Jones El-Abdellaoui, Pablo Durán.", "Assist usage should flow through the projected key-pass leaders; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Celta tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 13 total first-half shots, and 0.98 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Valencia is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Celta.", "Valencia wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Valencia": { "formation": "3-5-2", "players": { "Stole Dimitrievski": { "player_id": 97951, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 188, "market_value": 2100000, "stats": { "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.3336, "rating": 85.5242, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 14, "total_long_balls": 20, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 37, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 1.305, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 15.1109, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 14, "accurate_own_half_passes": 10, "expected_saves": 1.08, "high_pressure_saves": 0.41, "shots_faced": 2.3, "opponent_faced": "Williot Swedberg, Sergio Carreira", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083739, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 9, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.9127 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083687, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 49, "accurate_pass": 18, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -1.3388 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083639, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0031, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 22, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.4706 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15126917, "match_date": "2026-03-26", "home_team": "Denmark", "away_team": "North Macedonia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "North Macedonia", "opponent": "Denmark", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 9, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. 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"player_name": "Mads Bech Sørensen", "ranking": 18230 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Ballard", "ranking": 18231 }, { "player_name": "Danilo", "ranking": 18232 }, { "player_name": "Claudio Corvalán", "ranking": 18233 } ] } } }, "Fer López": { "player_id": 1526628, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 186, "market_value": 17500000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0217, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1176, "rating": 80.2832, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 14, "possession_lost": 2.2916, "dispossessed": 2.3214, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0597, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.529, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.64, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.514, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083715, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 8.5, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.4877, "expected_assists": 0.2606, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 53, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 5, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 14 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083656, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0466, "expected_assists": 0.0271, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 34, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 3, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083613, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2211, "expected_assists": 0.0494, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 58, "accurate_pass": 55, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632619, "match_date": "2026-04-16", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "SC Freiburg", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "SC Freiburg", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0598, "expected_assists": 0.062, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632615, "match_date": "2026-04-09", "home_team": "SC Freiburg", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "SC Freiburg", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.423, "expected_assists": 0.0198, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 18, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631844, "match_date": "2026-03-19", "home_team": "Olympique Lyonnais", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Olympique Lyonnais", "stats": { "minutes": 57, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0731, "expected_assists": 0.0791, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 18462, "combined_rank_score": 2056.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 613.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8118, "sofascore_appearances": 17.0, "fifa_rank": 3499.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.2832, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Fer López", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Marvin Keller", "ranking": 18457 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Moscardo", "ranking": 18458 }, { "player_name": "Edison Flores", "ranking": 18459 }, { "player_name": "Karim Onisiwo", "ranking": 18460 }, { "player_name": "Mats Deijl", "ranking": 18461 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Lucas Hoyos", "ranking": 18463 }, { "player_name": "Simone Scuffet", "ranking": 18464 }, { "player_name": "Christian Oliva", "ranking": 18465 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Castellón", "ranking": 18466 }, { "player_name": "Florian Müller", "ranking": 18467 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.61, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 434, "interceptions": 5, "tackles": 13, "avg_rating": 83.93, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.5, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Pepelu", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 7300000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.49, "defenders": [ "Javier Rueda" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.477, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.462, "xg_contribution": 0.0837, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Javier Rueda", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 6200000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.538 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pepelu (LWB) is evenly matched against Javier Rueda in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.084 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Javier Guerra", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Williot Swedberg" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.618, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.458, "xg_contribution": 0.0556, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Williot Swedberg", "role": "CM", "market_value": 18700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.542 } ], "duel_analysis": "Javier Guerra (CM) is evenly matched against Williot Swedberg in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.056 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Filip Ugrinić", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 5700000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.471, "defenders": [ "Williot Swedberg" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.618, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.354, "xg_contribution": 0.0971, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Williot Swedberg", "role": "CM", "market_value": 18700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.646 } ], "duel_analysis": "Filip Ugrinić (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Williot Swedberg in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. Projected xG contribution: 0.097 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ryunosuke Sato", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 2100000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.426, "defenders": [ "Aleix Febas" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.465, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.415, "xg_contribution": 0.0486, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aleix Febas", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 5200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.585 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ryunosuke Sato (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Aleix Febas in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Projected xG contribution: 0.049 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Hugo Duro", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 11600000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.541, "defenders": [ "Marcos Alonso", "Carl Starfelt" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.434, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.222, "xg_contribution": 0.0042, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marcos Alonso", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.778 }, { "player": "Carl Starfelt", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.778 } ], "duel_analysis": "Hugo Duro (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Marcos Alonso and Carl Starfelt in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 22%. Projected xG contribution: 0.004 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "José Luis Gayà", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 4300000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.454, "defenders": [ "Marcos Alonso", "Carl Starfelt" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.434, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.204, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marcos Alonso", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Carl Starfelt", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "José Luis Gayà (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Marcos Alonso and Carl Starfelt in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.204 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Aleix Febas", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 5200000, "attacker_height": 168, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.465, "defenders": [ "Ryunosuke Sato" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.426, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.425, "xg_contribution": 0.0769, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ryunosuke Sato", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.575 } ], "duel_analysis": "Aleix Febas (LWB) is evenly matched against Ryunosuke Sato in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.077 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Williot Swedberg", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 18700000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.618, "defenders": [ "Guido Rodríguez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.452, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.525, "xg_contribution": 0.148, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Guido Rodríguez", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.475 } ], "duel_analysis": "Williot Swedberg (CM) is slightly favored against Guido Rodríguez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. Projected xG contribution: 0.148 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Sergio Carreira", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 11500000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.54, "defenders": [ "Guido Rodríguez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.452, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.429, "xg_contribution": 0.1189, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Guido Rodríguez", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.571 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sergio Carreira (CM) is evenly matched against Guido Rodríguez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.119 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Javier Rueda", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 6200000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.477, "defenders": [ "Pepelu" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.49, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.378, "xg_contribution": 0.0727, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pepelu", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 7300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.622 } ], "duel_analysis": "Javier Rueda (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Pepelu in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.073 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ferran Jutglà", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 10700000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.531, "defenders": [ "Jesús Vázquez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.452, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.457, "xg_contribution": 0.0083, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jesús Vázquez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.543 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ferran Jutglà (SS) is evenly matched against Jesús Vázquez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.008 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Hugo González", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 720000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.409, "defenders": [ "Jesús Vázquez", "Justin De Haas" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.474, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0316, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jesús Vázquez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Justin De Haas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Hugo González (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jesús Vázquez and Justin De Haas in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.032 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Miguel Román", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 14400000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.573, "defenders": [ "Jesús Vázquez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.452, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.488, "xg_contribution": 0.0561, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jesús Vázquez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.512 } ], "duel_analysis": "Miguel Román (SS) is evenly matched against Jesús Vázquez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Projected xG contribution: 0.056 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.555, "away_midfield_power": 0.589, "home_creative_power": 0.429, "away_creative_power": 0.477, "home_defensive_power": 0.429, "away_defensive_power": 0.46, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.485, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 6, "home_midfield_players": [ "Filip Ugrinić", "Guido Rodríguez", "Javier Guerra", "Pepelu", "Ryunosuke Sato" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Williot Swedberg", "Hugo González", "Sergio Carreira", "Aleix Febas", "Miguel Román", "Javier Rueda" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.5, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.5, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.5, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.1, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.4, "home_throughball_threat": 1.9, "away_throughball_threat": 2.0, "key_personal_duel": "Javier Guerra vs Williot Swedberg", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.994, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.007 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.02, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.02, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 0.941, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Pepelu": { "opponents": [ "Javier Rueda" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Javier Guerra": { "opponents": [ "Williot Swedberg", "Sergio Carreira" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Filip Ugrinić": { "opponents": [ "Williot Swedberg", "Aleix Febas" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ryunosuke Sato": { "opponents": [ "Aleix Febas", "Miguel Román" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Hugo Duro": { "opponents": [ "Marcos Alonso", "Carl Starfelt" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "José Luis Gayà": { "opponents": [ "Marcos Alonso", "Carl Starfelt" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Guido Rodríguez": { "opponents": [ "Williot Swedberg", "Sergio Carreira", "Hugo González" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jesús Vázquez": { "opponents": [ "Ferran Jutglà", "Hugo González", "Miguel Román" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Justin De Haas": { "opponents": [ "Hugo González" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Stole Dimitrievski": { "opponents": [ "Ferran Jutglà", "Javier Rueda" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "César Tárrega": { "opponents": [ "Ferran Jutglà" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Javier Rueda": { "opponents": [ "Pepelu" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Williot Swedberg": { "opponents": [ "Javier Guerra", "Filip Ugrinić", "Guido Rodríguez" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Aleix Febas": { "opponents": [ "Ryunosuke Sato", "Filip Ugrinić" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Marcos Alonso": { "opponents": [ "Hugo Duro", "José Luis Gayà" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Carl Starfelt": { "opponents": [ "Hugo Duro", "José Luis Gayà" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Sergio Carreira": { "opponents": [ "Guido Rodríguez", "Javier Guerra" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ferran Jutglà": { "opponents": [ "Jesús Vázquez" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Hugo González": { "opponents": [ "Jesús Vázquez", "Justin De Haas", "Guido Rodríguez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Miguel Román": { "opponents": [ "Jesús Vázquez", "Ryunosuke Sato" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ionuț Radu": { "opponents": [ "Hugo Duro", "Pepelu" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Javi Rodríguez": { "opponents": [ "Hugo Duro" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Javier Guerra vs Williot Swedberg will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.49, Away: 0.51. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9821, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0152, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1261, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.036, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.003, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9922, "home_midfield_factor": 0.994, "away_midfield_factor": 1.007, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.4982, "away_avg_quality": 0.5085, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0103, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.0822, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.1412, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.146, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0249, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0335, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0214, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.941, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.804, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.9405, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.8044, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 0.941, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 17, "opponent_position": 13, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 13, "opponent_position": 17, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-08-22T13:32:03Z" }