{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260822", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1352, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": null, "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2953, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1352 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.13 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1153 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1151 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0771 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1153, "0-1": 0.1151, "0-2": 0.0593, "0-3": 0.0202, "0-4": 0.0051, "0-5": 0.001, "1-0": 0.13, "1-1": 0.1352, "1-2": 0.0683, "1-3": 0.0232, "1-4": 0.0059, "1-5": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.0756, "2-1": 0.0771, "2-2": 0.0393, "2-3": 0.0134, "2-4": 0.0034, "2-5": 0.0007, "3-0": 0.029, "3-1": 0.0296, "3-2": 0.0151, "3-3": 0.0051, "3-4": 0.0013, "4-0": 0.0083, "4-1": 0.0085, "4-2": 0.0043, "4-3": 0.0015, "5-0": 0.0019, "5-1": 0.002, "5-2": 0.001 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3855, "draw": 0.2953, "away_win": 0.3192 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3695, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6305, "btts_yes": 0.4384, "btts_no": 0.5616, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3606, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3163 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 85.03, "MCR": 80.99, "ATR": 83.79, "GK": 90.58 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 79.96, "MCR": 85.66, "ATR": 85.78, "GK": 87.77 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Everton vs Crystal Palace. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Merlin Röhl, Ismaïla Sarr", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Iliman Ndiaye vs Adam Wharton will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.66, Away: 0.51. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle." }, "confidence": 0.7, "home_lambda": 1.151, "away_lambda": 1.02 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3855, "draw": 0.2953, "away_win": 0.3192 }, "favorite": "Everton", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3855, "fair_spread": 0.131, "fair_total": 2.171, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Everton", "estimate": 1.151, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Crystal Palace", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3695, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4384, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Everton", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Crystal Palace", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3163, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Jake O'Brien (Everton)", "estimate": 0.5428, "probability": 0.1594, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ismaïla Sarr (Crystal Palace)", "estimate": 0.2797, "probability": 0.3785, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "James Tarkowski (Everton)", "estimate": 0.188, "probability": 0.0954, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Óscar Mingueza (Crystal Palace)", "estimate": 0.251, "probability": 0.3038, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.171, "expected_total_shots": 30, "expected_total_passes": 800, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.3, "possession_home_pct": 49.9, "possession_away_pct": 50.1, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Everton", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3855, "script": "Everton is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.13 goals and fair total 2.17.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 15 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Crystal Palace must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Everton lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Everton chance creation leans on Thierno Barry against Chadi Riad, Chris Richards in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Everton: starters carry the main goal usage through Merlin Röhl; bench watchlist: James Garner, Brennan Johnson, Tyrique George.", "Crystal Palace: starters carry the main goal usage through Ismaïla Sarr; bench watchlist: Brennan Johnson, Jean Philippe Mateta, Yéremy Pino.", "Assist usage should flow through Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Óscar Mingueza; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Everton tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 15 total first-half shots, and 1.09 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Crystal Palace is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Everton.", "Crystal Palace wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Everton": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Thierno Barry": { "player_id": 1395746, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 195, "market_value": 31000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.3123, "goal_rate": 0.0003, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0138, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 83.7885, "minutes": 43, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 7, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 14, "possession_lost": 6.4048, "dispossessed": 1.0675, "duels_lost": 8, "aerial_lost": 5, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.265, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Chadi Riad, Chris Richards", "opponent_faced": "Chadi Riad, Chris Richards", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1672, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0257, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023967, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 6.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.027, "expected_assists": 0.0047, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 9, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023955, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": 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"premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 17387, "combined_rank_score": 1262.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 994.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.5289, "sofascore_appearances": 38.0, "fifa_rank": 1530.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.7885, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Thierno Barry", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lazar Samardžić", "ranking": 17382 }, { "player_name": "Gernot Trauner", "ranking": 17383 }, { "player_name": "Jesper Karlsson", "ranking": 17384 }, { "player_name": "Bernardo", "ranking": 17385 }, { "player_name": "Patrick Dorgu", "ranking": 17386 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Aïssa Mandi", "ranking": 17388 }, { "player_name": "Flavien-Enzo Boyomo", "ranking": 17389 }, { "player_name": "Enes Ünal", "ranking": 17390 }, { "player_name": "Paulo Victor", "ranking": 17391 }, { "player_name": "Anderson Oliveira", "ranking": 17392 } ] } } }, "Iliman Ndiaye": { "player_id": 914309, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 180, "market_value": 53000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0573, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0676, "rating": 86.0784, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 23, "ball_recovery": 4, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 22, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 48, "possession_lost": 12.8394, "dispossessed": 2.5635, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 3, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, 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"match_id": 15186501, "match_date": "2026-06-16", "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Senegal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Senegal", "opponent": "France", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0104, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14023967, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.053, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, 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"match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.0784, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Iliman Ndiaye", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Nicolás Avellaneda", "ranking": 15359 }, { "player_name": "Rhys Bozinovski", "ranking": 15360 }, { "player_name": "Milan Vukotić", "ranking": 15361 }, { "player_name": "Dénes Dibusz", "ranking": 15362 }, { "player_name": "İrfan Can Kahveci", "ranking": 15363 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Won-jin Hong", "ranking": 15365 }, { "player_name": "Marco Collao", "ranking": 15366 }, { "player_name": "Hyun-min Kim", "ranking": 15367 }, { "player_name": "Robert Andrich", "ranking": 15368 }, { "player_name": "Ferland Mendy", "ranking": 15369 } ] } } }, "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall": { "player_id": 861970, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 178, "market_value": 38000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1714, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0639, "rating": 84.1925, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 28, "ball_recovery": 5, "duels_won": 5, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 25, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 56, "possession_lost": 14.4093, "dispossessed": 1.4377, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.4108, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 38, "progressive_carries": 2, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "crosses_attempted": 2.5, "duel_win_rate": 0.453, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", 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"ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15999228, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Manchester City", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1004, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13233692, "match_date": "2025-11-18", "home_team": "Spain", "away_team": "Türkiye", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Spain", "opponent": "Türkiye", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 38, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 14701, "combined_rank_score": 500.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 268.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.1, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 733.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.835, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Yéremy Pino", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Rustam Nartazhiev", "ranking": 14696 }, { "player_name": "Christian Bravo", "ranking": 14697 }, { "player_name": "Johnny Cardoso", "ranking": 14698 }, { "player_name": "Mohammed Kudus", "ranking": 14699 }, { "player_name": "Kaoru Mitoma", "ranking": 14700 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Edmond Tapsoba", "ranking": 14702 }, { "player_name": "Facundo Medina", "ranking": 14703 }, { "player_name": "Matteo Politano", "ranking": 14704 }, { "player_name": "Gayà", "ranking": 14705 }, { "player_name": "Xaver Schlager", "ranking": 14706 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.9, "total_shots": 16, "shots_on_target": 8, "total_passes": 437, "interceptions": 9, "tackles": 14, "avg_rating": 84.32, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.8 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 38000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.77, "defenders": [ "Chadi Riad" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.625, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.453, "xg_contribution": 0.0709, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Chadi Riad", "role": "CB", "market_value": 19400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.547 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (LW) is evenly matched against Chadi Riad in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. The quality gap is significant (€38M vs €19M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.071 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Hayden Hackney", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 35000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.752, "defenders": [ "Adam Wharton" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.876, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.348, "xg_contribution": 0.048, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adam Wharton", "role": "CM", "market_value": 74000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.652 } ], "duel_analysis": "Hayden Hackney (CAM) faces tough defensive resistance against Adam Wharton in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 35%. The quality gap is significant (€35M vs €74M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.048 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Harrison Armstrong", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 12400000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.55, "defenders": [ "Chadi Riad" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.625, "duel_zone": "RW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.382, "xg_contribution": 0.2082, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Chadi Riad", "role": "CB", "market_value": 19400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.618 } ], "duel_analysis": "Harrison Armstrong (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Chadi Riad in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.208 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Thierno Barry", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 195, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Chadi Riad", "Chris Richards" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.651, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.265, "xg_contribution": 0.3314, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Chadi Riad", "role": "CB", "market_value": 19400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.735 }, { "player": "Chris Richards", "role": "CB", "market_value": 25000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.735 } ], "duel_analysis": "Thierno Barry (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Chadi Riad and Chris Richards in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 27%. Projected xG contribution: 0.331 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Dwight McNeil", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 18800000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.619, "defenders": [ "Jarrad Branthwaite", "Jake O'Brien" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.691, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0334, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "role": "CB", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jake O'Brien", "role": "CB", "market_value": 16500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dwight McNeil (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jarrad Branthwaite and Jake O'Brien in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.033 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 41000000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.786, "defenders": [ "Iliman Ndiaye", "Jarrad Branthwaite" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.81, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.281, "xg_contribution": 0.1702, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iliman Ndiaye", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 53000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.719 }, { "player": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "role": "CB", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.3, "defensive_success_rate": 0.719 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jørgen Strand Larsen (SS) is heavily outmatched defensively against Iliman Ndiaye and Jarrad Branthwaite in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 28%. Projected xG contribution: 0.170 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Daichi Kamada", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 10300000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.526, "defenders": [ "James Tarkowski" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.465, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.424, "xg_contribution": 0.0828, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James Tarkowski", "role": "RB", "market_value": 5200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.576 } ], "duel_analysis": "Daichi Kamada (LWB) is evenly matched against James Tarkowski in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.083 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Óscar Mingueza", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 18700000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.618, "defenders": [ "Vitaliy Mykolenko" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.386, "xg_contribution": 0.0869, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "role": "LB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.614 } ], "duel_analysis": "Óscar Mingueza (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Vitaliy Mykolenko in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Projected xG contribution: 0.087 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Adam Wharton", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 74000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.876, "defenders": [ "Iliman Ndiaye" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.834, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.477, "xg_contribution": 0.1363, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iliman Ndiaye", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 53000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.523 } ], "duel_analysis": "Adam Wharton (CM) is evenly matched against Iliman Ndiaye in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. The quality gap is significant (€74M vs €53M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.136 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.746, "away_midfield_power": 0.71, "home_creative_power": 0.638, "away_creative_power": 0.712, "home_defensive_power": 0.576, "away_defensive_power": 0.642, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.513, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Iliman Ndiaye", "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "Merlin Röhl", "Harrison Armstrong", "Hayden Hackney" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Dwight McNeil", "Tyrick Mitchell", "Daichi Kamada", "Adam Wharton", "Óscar Mingueza" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.5, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.8, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.3, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.8, "home_throughball_threat": 2.5, "away_throughball_threat": 2.7, "key_personal_duel": "Iliman Ndiaye vs Adam Wharton", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.003, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.005 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.151, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "RW vs CB" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall": { "opponents": [ "Chadi Riad", "Óscar Mingueza" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Hayden Hackney": { "opponents": [ "Adam Wharton" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Harrison Armstrong": { "opponents": [ "Chadi Riad", "Dwight McNeil" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Thierno Barry": { "opponents": [ "Chadi Riad", "Chris Richards" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jarrad Branthwaite": { "opponents": [ "Dwight McNeil", "Jørgen Strand Larsen" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jake O'Brien": { "opponents": [ "Dwight McNeil" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Iliman Ndiaye": { "opponents": [ "Jørgen Strand Larsen", "Adam Wharton", "Tyrick Mitchell" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "James Tarkowski": { "opponents": [ "Daichi Kamada" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Vitaliy Mykolenko": { "opponents": [ "Óscar Mingueza" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Merlin Röhl": { "opponents": [ "Daichi Kamada" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Jordan Pickford": { "opponents": [ "Ismaïla Sarr", "Jørgen Strand Larsen" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Chadi Riad": { "opponents": [ "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "Harrison Armstrong", "Thierno Barry" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Adam Wharton": { "opponents": [ "Hayden Hackney", "Iliman Ndiaye" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Chris Richards": { "opponents": [ "Thierno Barry" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dwight McNeil": { "opponents": [ "Jarrad Branthwaite", "Jake O'Brien", "Harrison Armstrong" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jørgen Strand Larsen": { "opponents": [ "Iliman Ndiaye", "Jarrad Branthwaite" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Daichi Kamada": { "opponents": [ "James Tarkowski", "Merlin Röhl" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Óscar Mingueza": { "opponents": [ "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Tyrick Mitchell": { "opponents": [ "Iliman Ndiaye" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Dean Henderson": { "opponents": [ "Thierno Barry", "Hayden Hackney" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jaydee Canvot": { "opponents": [ "Thierno Barry" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Ismaïla Sarr": { "opponents": [ "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "Jake O'Brien" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Iliman Ndiaye vs Adam Wharton will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.66, Away: 0.51. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8989, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9575, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9334, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9398, "home_midfield_factor": 1.003, "away_midfield_factor": 1.005, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.6739, "away_avg_quality": 0.686, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0121, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.086, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.047, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.2073, "elite_count_gap": -1, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0378, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0365, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0241, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.151, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.844, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.1515, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.8441, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.151, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 9, "opponent_position": 8, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 8, "opponent_position": 9, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-08-22T13:31:16Z" }