{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Forest", "away_team": "Leeds", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260822", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1112, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": null, "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2358, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1112 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0992 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0976 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0881 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.062 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0573, "0-1": 0.062, "0-2": 0.0347, "0-3": 0.0128, "0-4": 0.0035, "0-5": 0.0008, "1-0": 0.0992, "1-1": 0.1112, "1-2": 0.0612, "1-3": 0.0226, "1-4": 0.0062, "1-5": 0.0014, "2-0": 0.0881, "2-1": 0.0976, "2-2": 0.054, "2-3": 0.0199, "2-4": 0.0055, "2-5": 0.0012, "3-0": 0.0519, "3-1": 0.0574, "3-2": 0.0318, "3-3": 0.0117, "3-4": 0.0032, "3-5": 0.0007, "4-0": 0.0229, "4-1": 0.0253, "4-2": 0.014, "4-3": 0.0052, "4-4": 0.0014, "5-0": 0.0081, "5-1": 0.0089, "5-2": 0.0049, "5-3": 0.0018, "5-4": 0.0005, "6-0": 0.0024, "6-1": 0.0026, "6-2": 0.0015, "6-3": 0.0005, "7-0": 0.0006, "7-1": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.5271, "draw": 0.2358, "away_win": 0.2371 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5475, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4525, "btts_yes": 0.5555, "btts_no": 0.4445, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3305, "away_clean_sheet": 0.1712 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 88.06, "MCR": 86.77, "ATR": 84.0, "GK": 89.43 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 81.45, "MCR": 83.54, "ATR": 81.29, "GK": 82.81 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Forest vs Leeds. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 7 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Morgan Gibbs-White, Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Morgan Gibbs-White vs Ethan Ampadu will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.18, Away: 1.14. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat." }, "confidence": 0.76, "home_lambda": 1.765, "away_lambda": 1.107 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.5271, "draw": 0.2358, "away_win": 0.2371 }, "favorite": "Forest", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5271, "fair_spread": 0.658, "fair_total": 2.872, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Forest", "estimate": 1.765, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Leeds", "estimate": 1.107, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5475, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5555, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Forest", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3305, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Leeds", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1712, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Morgan Gibbs-White (Forest)", "estimate": 0.8138, "probability": 0.3413, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds)", "estimate": 0.4305, "probability": 0.4617, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Dan Ndoye (Forest)", "estimate": 0.2461, "probability": 0.2947, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Harry Wilson (Leeds)", "estimate": 0.1821, "probability": 0.3673, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.872, "expected_total_shots": 19, "expected_total_passes": 824, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.5, "possession_home_pct": 49.4, "possession_away_pct": 50.6, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Forest", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5271, "script": "Forest is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.66 goals and fair total 2.87.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 10 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Leeds must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Forest lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Forest chance creation leans on Morgan Gibbs-White against Ethan Ampadu in Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Forest: starters carry the main goal usage through Morgan Gibbs-White; bench watchlist: Elliot Anderson, Lorenzo Lucca, Arnaud Kalimuendo.", "Leeds: starters carry the main goal usage through Dominic Calvert-Lewin; bench watchlist: Noah Okafor, Wilfried Gnonto, Sean Longstaff.", "Assist usage should flow through Dan Ndoye, Harry Wilson; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Forest tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 10 total first-half shots, and 1.44 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Leeds is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Forest.", "Leeds wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Forest": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "Dan Ndoye": { "player_id": 944327, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 184, "market_value": 31000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.2461, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0, "rating": 86.2997, "minutes": 86, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 23, "ball_recovery": 4, "duels_won": 6, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 15, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 50, "possession_lost": 12.0945, "dispossessed": 2.1349, "duels_lost": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 4, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 1.0675, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1601, "ball_carries": 14, "total_progression": 121, "progressive_carries": 4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.438, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ethan Ampadu", "opponent_faced": "Ethan Ampadu", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.159, "projected_assists": 1, "assist_probability": 0.2947, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 12813015, "match_date": "2026-07-12 01:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": 16, "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": 58210, "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026", "home_team": "Argentina", "away_team": "Switzerland", "home_score_current": 3.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 110, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "AET", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Switzerland", "opponent": "Argentina", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 12812991, "match_date": "2026-07-07 20:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": 16, "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": 58210, "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026", "home_team": "Switzerland", "away_team": "Colombia", "home_score_current": 4.0, "away_score_current": 3.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 120, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "AP", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Switzerland", "opponent": "Colombia", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 12813019, "match_date": "2026-07-03", "home_team": "Switzerland", "away_team": "Algeria", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Switzerland", "opponent": "Algeria", "stats": { "minutes": 87, "rating": 8.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0906, "expected_assists": 0.0716, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186821, "match_date": "2026-06-24", "home_team": "Switzerland", "away_team": "Canada", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Switzerland", "opponent": "Canada", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186806, "match_date": "2026-06-18", "home_team": "Switzerland", "away_team": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Switzerland", "opponent": "Bosnia & Herzegovina", "stats": { "minutes": 71, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0989, "expected_assists": 0.0256, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186526, "match_date": "2026-06-13", "home_team": "Qatar", "away_team": "Switzerland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Switzerland", "opponent": "Qatar", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4014, "expected_assists": 0.0181, "total_shots": 6, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15632620, "match_date": "2026-04-16", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "FC Porto", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "FC Porto", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.4713, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632616, "match_date": "2026-04-09", "home_team": "FC Porto", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "FC Porto", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0526, "expected_assists": 0.1924, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 9243, "combined_rank_score": 437.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 79.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.54, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 796.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 6, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.2997, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dan Ndoye", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Daniil Yermolov", "ranking": 9238 }, { "player_name": "Seong-jun Jo", "ranking": 9239 }, { "player_name": "Ali Mahdi Altaieen", "ranking": 9240 }, { "player_name": "Nasser Al Yazidi", "ranking": 9241 }, { "player_name": "Milad Falah", "ranking": 9242 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Connor Chapman", "ranking": 9244 }, { "player_name": "Abbati Abdullahi Samaila", "ranking": 9245 }, { "player_name": "Nazar Makarenko", "ranking": 9246 }, { "player_name": "Camilo Mayada", "ranking": 9247 }, { "player_name": "Mark Strajnar", "ranking": 9248 } ] } } }, "Morgan Gibbs-White": { "player_id": 865912, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 171, "market_value": 67000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1404, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8138, "rating": 89.6045, "minutes": 82, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 30, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 4, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 5, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 11, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 50, "possession_lost": 13.8729, "dispossessed": 1.1098, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 3, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 4, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 1.1098, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 2, "xgot": 0.6104, "ball_carries": 16, "total_progression": 108, "progressive_carries": 4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.45, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Ethan Ampadu", "opponent_faced": "Ethan Ampadu", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.3413, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.2262, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023964, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4727, "expected_assists": 0.036, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 25, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023956, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Manchester United", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.6, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.9046, "expected_assists": 0.0381, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 30, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632623, "match_date": "2026-04-30", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1063, "expected_assists": 0.4095, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 37, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632620, "match_date": "2026-04-16", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "FC Porto", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "FC Porto", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1847, "expected_assists": 0.071, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 48, "accurate_pass": 43, 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"key_pass": 0, "rating": 80.7631, "minutes": 26, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 5, "possession_lost": 1.7025, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 11, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.593, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.04, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.585, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023968, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "West Ham United", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "West Ham United", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0109, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 9 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0401, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 4, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023944, "match_date": "2026-05-11", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0074, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 18101, "combined_rank_score": 1783.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 879.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6286, "sofascore_appearances": 23.0, "fifa_rank": 2687.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.7631, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Wilfried Gnonto", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Julio Enciso", "ranking": 18096 }, { "player_name": "Yoan Bonny", "ranking": 18097 }, { "player_name": "Denis Suárez", "ranking": 18098 }, { "player_name": "Tiago Gouveia", "ranking": 18099 }, { "player_name": "Erik Thommy", "ranking": 18100 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Claudio Echeverri", "ranking": 18102 }, { "player_name": "Ezequiel Ponce", "ranking": 18103 }, { "player_name": "Ben Brereton Díaz", "ranking": 18104 }, { "player_name": "Iván Villar", "ranking": 18105 }, { "player_name": "Okan Kocuk", "ranking": 18106 } ] } } }, "Sean Longstaff": { "player_id": 866191, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 187, "market_value": 15300000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0179, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "rating": 81.8503, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 0.8985, "dispossessed": 1.0247, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1232, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.55, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.585, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023954, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Leeds United", "away_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1297, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 11, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023944, "match_date": "2026-05-11", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Leeds United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Leeds United", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2453, "expected_assists": 0.0206, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 17466, "combined_rank_score": 1328.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 541.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.86, "sofascore_appearances": 23.0, "fifa_rank": 2115.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.8503, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Sean Longstaff", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lorenzo Lucca", "ranking": 17461 }, { "player_name": "Sandi Lovrić", "ranking": 17462 }, { "player_name": "Portu", "ranking": 17463 }, { "player_name": "Cesinha", "ranking": 17464 }, { "player_name": "Jonas Urbig", "ranking": 17465 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Gonçalo Guedes", "ranking": 17467 }, { "player_name": "Dani Rodríguez", "ranking": 17468 }, { "player_name": "Lukáš Červ", "ranking": 17469 }, { "player_name": "Aitor", "ranking": 17470 }, { "player_name": "Angelo Fulgini", "ranking": 17471 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.11, "expected_assists": 0.58, "total_shots": 9, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 396, "interceptions": 9, "tackles": 13, "avg_rating": 82.32, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.6, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Xaver Schlager", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 9500000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.517, "defenders": [ "Brenden Aaronson" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.66, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.34, "xg_contribution": 0.0718, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Brenden Aaronson", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.66 } ], "duel_analysis": "Xaver Schlager (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Brenden Aaronson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. Projected xG contribution: 0.072 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Morgan Gibbs-White", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 67000000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.866, "defenders": [ "Ethan Ampadu" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.702, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.45, "xg_contribution": 0.3691, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ethan Ampadu", "role": "CM", "market_value": 28000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.55 } ], "duel_analysis": "Morgan Gibbs-White (CM) is evenly matched against Ethan Ampadu in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. The quality gap is significant (€67M vs €28M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.369 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Dan Ndoye", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Ethan Ampadu" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.702, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.438, "xg_contribution": 0.147, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ethan Ampadu", "role": "CM", "market_value": 28000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.562 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dan Ndoye (CM) is evenly matched against Ethan Ampadu in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.147 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ibrahim Sangaré", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 191, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Harry Wilson" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.694, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.456, "xg_contribution": 0.0988, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Harry Wilson", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.544 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ibrahim Sangaré (RWB) is evenly matched against Harry Wilson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.099 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Igor Jesus", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Jaka Bijol" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.616, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.429, "xg_contribution": 0.144, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jaka Bijol", "role": "CB", "market_value": 18500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.571 } ], "duel_analysis": "Igor Jesus (SS) is evenly matched against Jaka Bijol in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.144 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ola Aina", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 16399999, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.594, "defenders": [ "Jaka Bijol", "Joe Rodon" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.618, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2421, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jaka Bijol", "role": "CB", "market_value": 18500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Joe Rodon", "role": "CB", "market_value": 18800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ola Aina (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jaka Bijol and Joe Rodon in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.242 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Murillo", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 49000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.821, "defenders": [ "Jaka Bijol" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.616, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.494, "xg_contribution": 0.1092, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jaka Bijol", "role": "CB", "market_value": 18500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.506 } ], "duel_analysis": "Murillo (SS) is evenly matched against Jaka Bijol in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. The quality gap is significant (€49M vs €18M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.109 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Harry Wilson", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Ibrahim Sangaré" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.384, "xg_contribution": 0.0568, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ibrahim Sangaré", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.616 } ], "duel_analysis": "Harry Wilson (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Ibrahim Sangaré in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.057 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ethan Ampadu", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 28000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.702, "defenders": [ "Morgan Gibbs-White" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.866, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.39, "xg_contribution": 0.1338, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Morgan Gibbs-White", "role": "CM", "market_value": 67000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.61 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ethan Ampadu (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Morgan Gibbs-White in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. The quality gap is significant (€28M vs €67M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.134 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Anton Stach", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 192, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Morgan Gibbs-White" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.866, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.403, "xg_contribution": 0.0492, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Morgan Gibbs-White", "role": "CM", "market_value": 67000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.597 } ], "duel_analysis": "Anton Stach (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Morgan Gibbs-White in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €67M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.049 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Brenden Aaronson", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Xaver Schlager" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.517, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.5, "xg_contribution": 0.1088, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Xaver Schlager", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 9500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.5 } ], "duel_analysis": "Brenden Aaronson (RWB) is slightly favored against Xaver Schlager in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. Projected xG contribution: 0.109 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Neco Williams" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.458, "xg_contribution": 0.3253, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Neco Williams", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.542 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin (SS) is evenly matched against Neco Williams in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.325 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "James Justin", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 12400000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.55, "defenders": [ "Neco Williams", "Nikola Milenković" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2302, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Neco Williams", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Nikola Milenković", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "James Justin (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Neco Williams and Nikola Milenković in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.230 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Jayden Bogle", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 16000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.59, "defenders": [ "Neco Williams" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.387, "xg_contribution": 0.2364, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Neco Williams", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.613 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jayden Bogle (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Neco Williams in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Projected xG contribution: 0.236 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.712, "away_midfield_power": 0.712, "home_creative_power": 0.915, "away_creative_power": 0.778, "home_defensive_power": 0.665, "away_defensive_power": 0.803, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.5, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Dan Ndoye", "Morgan Gibbs-White", "Xaver Schlager", "Ibrahim Sangaré" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Harry Wilson", "Brenden Aaronson", "Ethan Ampadu", "Anton Stach" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.4, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.6, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.9, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 7.0, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.2, "home_throughball_threat": 3.3, "away_throughball_threat": 2.9, "key_personal_duel": "Morgan Gibbs-White vs Ethan Ampadu", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.005, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.006 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.765, "away_lambda": 1.107, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Xaver Schlager": { "opponents": [ "Brenden Aaronson", "Harry Wilson" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Morgan Gibbs-White": { "opponents": [ "Ethan Ampadu", "Anton Stach" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dan Ndoye": { "opponents": [ "Ethan Ampadu", "Anton Stach" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ibrahim Sangaré": { "opponents": [ "Harry Wilson", "Brenden Aaronson" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Igor Jesus": { "opponents": [ "Jaka Bijol" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ola Aina": { "opponents": [ "Jaka Bijol", "Joe Rodon" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Murillo": { "opponents": [ "Jaka Bijol" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Neco Williams": { "opponents": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "James Justin", "Jayden Bogle" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nikola Milenković": { "opponents": [ "James Justin" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Matz Sels": { "opponents": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "Ethan Ampadu" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Ousmane Diomande": { "opponents": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Brenden Aaronson": { "opponents": [ "Xaver Schlager", "Ibrahim Sangaré" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ethan Ampadu": { "opponents": [ "Morgan Gibbs-White", "Dan Ndoye" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Harry Wilson": { "opponents": [ "Ibrahim Sangaré", "Xaver Schlager" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jaka Bijol": { "opponents": [ "Igor Jesus", "Ola Aina", "Murillo" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Joe Rodon": { "opponents": [ "Ola Aina" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Anton Stach": { "opponents": [ "Morgan Gibbs-White", "Dan Ndoye" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dominic Calvert-Lewin": { "opponents": [ "Neco Williams" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "James Justin": { "opponents": [ "Neco Williams", "Nikola Milenković" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jayden Bogle": { "opponents": [ "Neco Williams" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "James Trafford": { "opponents": [ "Igor Jesus", "Morgan Gibbs-White" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Tarik Muharemović": { "opponents": [ "Igor Jesus" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Morgan Gibbs-White vs Ethan Ampadu will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.18, Away: 1.14. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9054, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0071, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1673, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9292, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8961, "home_midfield_factor": 1.005, "away_midfield_factor": 1.006, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.7021, "away_avg_quality": 0.6564, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0457, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.2948, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.388, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.1684, "elite_count_gap": 3, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1174, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.2583, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1644, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.026, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.033, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.765, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.107, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.765, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.107, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.765, "final_away_lambda": 1.107 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 18, "opponent_position": 13, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 13, "opponent_position": 18, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-08-22T13:31:27Z" }