{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260822", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-3", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 3, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1117, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Real Madrid", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.0877, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-3", "probability": 0.1117 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0997 }, { "score": "0-4", "probability": 0.0939 }, { "score": "1-3", "probability": 0.0758 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0676 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0177, "0-1": 0.0592, "0-2": 0.0997, "0-3": 0.1117, "0-4": 0.0939, "0-5": 0.0631, "0-6": 0.0354, "0-7": 0.017, "0-8": 0.0071, "0-9": 0.0027, "1-0": 0.0119, "1-1": 0.0403, "1-2": 0.0676, "1-3": 0.0758, "1-4": 0.0637, "1-5": 0.0428, "1-6": 0.024, "1-7": 0.0115, "1-8": 0.0048, "1-9": 0.0018, "2-0": 0.0041, "2-1": 0.0136, "2-2": 0.0229, "2-3": 0.0257, "2-4": 0.0216, "2-5": 0.0145, "2-6": 0.0081, "2-7": 0.0039, "2-8": 0.0016, "2-9": 0.0006, "3-0": 0.0009, "3-1": 0.0031, "3-2": 0.0052, "3-3": 0.0058, "3-4": 0.0049, "3-5": 0.0033, "3-6": 0.0018, "3-7": 0.0009, "4-1": 0.0005, "4-2": 0.0009, "4-3": 0.001, "4-4": 0.0008, "4-5": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.0418, "draw": 0.0877, "away_win": 0.8705 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.7671, "under_2_5_goals": 0.2329, "btts_yes": 0.4754, "btts_no": 0.5246, "home_clean_sheet": 0.0348, "away_clean_sheet": 0.5076 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 62.48, "MCR": 80.78, "ATR": 77.11, "GK": 86.5 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 91.45, "MCR": 90.49, "ATR": 96.53, "GK": 96.03 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Espanyol vs Real Madrid. Most likely scoreline: 0-3. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior, Arda Güler", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Urko González vs Arda Güler). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.87, Away: 1.09. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.91, "home_lambda": 0.678, "away_lambda": 3.362 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.0418, "draw": 0.0877, "away_win": 0.8705 }, "favorite": "Real Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8705, "fair_spread": -2.684, "fair_total": 4.04, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Espanyol", "estimate": 0.678, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Real Madrid", "estimate": 3.362, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.7671, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4754, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Espanyol", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0348, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Real Madrid", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5076, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Tyrhys Dolan (Espanyol)", "estimate": 0.1668, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid)", "estimate": 1.4658, "probability": 0.6685, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Javier Hernández (Espanyol)", "estimate": 0.2339, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Vinícius Júnior (Real Madrid)", "estimate": 0.2703, "probability": 0.141, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 4.04, "expected_total_shots": 29, "expected_total_passes": 878, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.8, "possession_home_pct": 46.9, "possession_away_pct": 53.1, "notes": "Real Madrid projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Real Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8705, "script": "Real Madrid is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread -2.68 goals and fair total 4.04.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Espanyol must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Real Madrid lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Real Madrid chance creation leans on Kylian Mbappé against Omar El Hilali, Unai Núñez in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; Real Madrid projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Espanyol: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Cyril Ngonge, Gabriel Moscardo, Marcos Fernández.", "Real Madrid: starters carry the main goal usage through Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior, Arda Güler; bench watchlist: Yan Diomande, Rodrygo.", "Assist usage should flow through Arda Güler; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Real Madrid tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 2.02 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Espanyol is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Real Madrid.", "Espanyol wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Espanyol": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Marko Dmitrović": { "player_id": 94527, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 194, "market_value": 650000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.503, "rating": 86.5029, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 14, "total_long_balls": 19, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 40, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 11, "high_claims": 3, "punches": 1.9625, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 4, "possession_lost": 12.756, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "expected_saves": 2.29, "high_pressure_saves": 0.87, "shots_faced": 4.9, "opponent_faced": "Kylian Mbappé, Arda Güler", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421053, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 14, "ball_recovery": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083696, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Espanyol", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 8, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 13, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": -0.3181 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083629, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Espanyol", 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Dmitrović", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Nick Woltemade", "ranking": 14805 }, { "player_name": "Benjamin Opeyemi Teidi", "ranking": 14806 }, { "player_name": "Tornike Dzebniauri", "ranking": 14807 }, { "player_name": "Ho-in Lee", "ranking": 14808 }, { "player_name": "Hak-min Lee", "ranking": 14809 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Richard Ríos", "ranking": 14811 }, { "player_name": "Pedro Neto", "ranking": 14812 }, { "player_name": "Ladislav Krejčí", "ranking": 14813 }, { "player_name": "Pau López", "ranking": 14814 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Morales", "ranking": 14815 } ] } } }, "Clemens Riedel": { "player_id": 1129360, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 186, "market_value": 3900000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 8, "aerial_won": 3, "rating": 75.8231, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 70, "accurate_pass": 59, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 52, "accurate_own_half_passes": 47, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 83, "possession_lost": 11.1553, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0066, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 21, "total_progression": 80, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.9, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.438, "opponent_faced": "Brahim Díaz", "pressing_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — 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"opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0049, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 30, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 11, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083629, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0063, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 100, "accurate_pass": 91, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 20770, "combined_rank_score": 3811.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 647.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.79, "sofascore_appearances": 20.0, "fifa_rank": 6975.0, "fifa_overall": 69.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.8231, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Clemens Riedel", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Benjamin Kololli", "ranking": 20765 }, { "player_name": "Fredrik Hammar", "ranking": 20766 }, { "player_name": "João Gamboa", "ranking": 20767 }, { "player_name": "Layan Loor", "ranking": 20768 }, { "player_name": "Warren Kamanzi", "ranking": 20769 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Claudio Bravo", "ranking": 20771 }, { "player_name": "Jerónimo Cacciabue", "ranking": 20772 }, { "player_name": "Loum Tchaouna", "ranking": 20773 }, { "player_name": "Matteo Dams", "ranking": 20774 }, { "player_name": "Joaquín Valiente", "ranking": 20775 } ] } } }, "Omar El Hilali": { "player_id": 1064026, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 183, "market_value": 15900000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 83.9519, "minutes": 72, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 8, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 49, "possession_lost": 9.7534, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 3, "fouls_drawn": 0, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0069, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 27, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 0, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.645, "opponent_faced": "Kylian Mbappé", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421053, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0066, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 26, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083719, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Real Sociedad", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0021, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", 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25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14065236, "match_date": "2026-05-02", "home_team": "Bayer 04 Leverkusen", "away_team": "RB Leipzig", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "RB Leipzig", "opponent": "Bayer 04 Leverkusen", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0359, "expected_assists": 0.1544, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 25, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Bundesliga", "league_id": "35", "league_slug": "bundesliga", "league_country": "Germany", "season_id": "77333", "season_name": "Bundesliga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 22264, "combined_rank_score": 5100.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 10182.0, "fifa_overall": 66.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.5156, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Yan Diomande", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Derlis Rodríguez", "ranking": 22259 }, { "player_name": "Niklas Lomb", "ranking": 22260 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Høegh", "ranking": 22261 }, { "player_name": "Jack Iredale", "ranking": 22262 }, { "player_name": "Nachon Nsingi", "ranking": 22263 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Mattie Pollock", "ranking": 22265 }, { "player_name": "Mahamadou Nagida", "ranking": 22266 }, { "player_name": "Liam Lindsay", "ranking": 22267 }, { "player_name": "Shane Duffy", "ranking": 22268 }, { "player_name": "Kento Shiogai", "ranking": 22269 } ] } } }, "Rodrygo": { "player_id": 910536, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 174, "market_value": 48000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0017, "goal_rate": 0.0004, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0463, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 92.446, "minutes": 27, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 3.9122, "dispossessed": 2.1901, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1011, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.627, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.79, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.804, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 13129495, "match_date": "2025-03-26", "home_team": "Argentina", "away_team": "Brazil", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brazil", "opponent": "Argentina", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 19, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 13129489, "match_date": "2025-03-21", "home_team": "Brazil", "away_team": "Colombia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brazil", "opponent": "Colombia", "stats": { "minutes": 78, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 11886385, "match_date": "2024-07-03", "home_team": "Brazil", "away_team": "Colombia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brazil", "opponent": "Colombia", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0171, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 20, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" }, { "match_id": 11886398, "match_date": "2024-06-29", "home_team": "Paraguay", "away_team": "Brazil", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brazil", "opponent": "Paraguay", "stats": { "minutes": 79, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1862, "expected_assists": 0.2674, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" }, { "match_id": 11886366, "match_date": "2024-06-25", "home_team": "Brazil", "away_team": "Costa Rica", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Brazil", "opponent": "Costa Rica", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4185, "expected_assists": 0.2768, "total_shots": 6, "shots_off_target": 5, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 36, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 258, "combined_rank_score": 171.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 190.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.22, "sofascore_appearances": 5.0, "fifa_rank": 152.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.446, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Rodrygo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Luis Sinisterra", "ranking": 253 }, { "player_name": "Min Junyeong", "ranking": 254 }, { "player_name": "Adrien Rabiot", "ranking": 255 }, { "player_name": "Álvaro Montoro", "ranking": 256 }, { "player_name": "Benjamin Pavard", "ranking": 257 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Abdulay Juma Bah", "ranking": 259 }, { "player_name": "Luca Meirelles", "ranking": 260 }, { "player_name": "Francisco Trincão", "ranking": 261 }, { "player_name": "Nikolai Ivanov", "ranking": 262 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Viveros", "ranking": 263 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 3, "expected_goals": 3.36, "expected_assists": 1.34, "total_shots": 17, "shots_on_target": 11, "total_passes": 473, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 11, "avg_rating": 92.36, "possession_estimated_pct": 53.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Tyrhys Dolan", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 10800000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.532, "defenders": [ "Vinícius Júnior" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.899, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.291, "xg_contribution": 0.2718, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Vinícius Júnior", "role": "RB", "market_value": 146000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.4, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.3, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.709 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tyrhys Dolan (LW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Vinícius Júnior in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€11M vs €146M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.272 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Álex Calatrava", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 3900000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.449, "defenders": [ "Marc Cucurella" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.857, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.296, "xg_contribution": 0.1657, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Cucurella", "role": "LB", "market_value": 62000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.704 } ], "duel_analysis": "Álex Calatrava (RW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Marc Cucurella in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €62M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.166 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Javier Hernández", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 1600000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.42, "defenders": [ "Bernardo Silva", "Federico Valverde" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.764, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1733, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Bernardo Silva", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Federico Valverde", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 87000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Javier Hernández (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Bernardo Silva and Federico Valverde in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €54M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.173 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Roberto Fernández", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 10300000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.526, "defenders": [ "Dean Huijsen", "Ibrahima Konaté" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.837, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.194, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dean Huijsen", "role": "CB", "market_value": 66000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Ibrahima Konaté", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Roberto Fernández (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Dean Huijsen and Ibrahima Konaté in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€10M vs €56M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.194 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Edu Expósito", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 4500000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.456, "defenders": [ "Bernardo Silva" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.345, "xg_contribution": 0.0663, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Bernardo Silva", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.655 } ], "duel_analysis": "Edu Expósito (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Bernardo Silva in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €21M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.066 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Arda Güler", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 87000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.887, "defenders": [ "Roger Hinojo" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.412, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.678, "xg_contribution": 0.1219, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Roger Hinojo", "role": "RB", "market_value": 1000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.322 } ], "duel_analysis": "Arda Güler (LW) has a clear attacking advantage against Roger Hinojo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 68%. The quality gap is significant (€87M vs €1M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.122 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Brahim Díaz", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 37000000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.764, "defenders": [ "Clemens Riedel" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.449, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.562, "xg_contribution": 0.0632, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Clemens Riedel", "role": "LB", "market_value": 3900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.438 } ], "duel_analysis": "Brahim Díaz (RW) is slightly favored against Clemens Riedel in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 56%. The quality gap is significant (€37M vs €4M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.063 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Denzel Dumfries", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Edu Expósito", "Urko González" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.499, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.348, "xg_contribution": 0.0471, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Edu Expósito", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.652 }, { "player": "Urko González", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 11600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.652 } ], "duel_analysis": "Denzel Dumfries (CAM) faces tough defensive resistance against Edu Expósito and Urko González in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 35%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €8M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.047 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Kylian Mbappé", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 212000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "Omar El Hilali", "Unai Núñez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.515, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.355, "xg_contribution": 0.7839, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Omar El Hilali", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.645 }, { "player": "Unai Núñez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.645 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kylian Mbappé (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Omar El Hilali and Unai Núñez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 36%. The quality gap is significant (€212M vs €10M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.784 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Bernardo Silva", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Edu Expósito" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.456, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.495, "xg_contribution": 0.073, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Edu Expósito", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 4500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.505 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bernardo Silva (CDM) is evenly matched against Edu Expósito in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €4M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.073 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.529, "away_midfield_power": 0.823, "home_creative_power": 0.466, "away_creative_power": 0.809, "home_defensive_power": 0.464, "away_defensive_power": 0.691, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.391, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Tyrhys Dolan", "Javier Hernández", "Álex Calatrava", "Edu Expósito", "Urko González" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Arda Güler", "Brahim Díaz", "Bernardo Silva", "Federico Valverde", "Denzel Dumfries" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 46.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 53.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.3, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.4, "home_throughball_threat": 2.0, "away_throughball_threat": 3.0, "key_personal_duel": "Urko González vs Arda Güler", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.962, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.043 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 0.678, "away_lambda": 3.362, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Tyrhys Dolan": { "opponents": [ "Vinícius Júnior", "Arda Güler" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Álex Calatrava": { "opponents": [ "Marc Cucurella", "Brahim Díaz" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Javier Hernández": { "opponents": [ "Bernardo Silva", "Federico Valverde", "Denzel Dumfries" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Roberto Fernández": { "opponents": [ "Dean Huijsen", "Ibrahima Konaté" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Edu Expósito": { "opponents": [ "Bernardo Silva", "Denzel Dumfries" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Roger Hinojo": { "opponents": [ "Arda Güler" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Clemens Riedel": { "opponents": [ "Brahim Díaz" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Urko González": { "opponents": [ "Denzel Dumfries", "Federico Valverde" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Omar El Hilali": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Unai Núñez": { "opponents": [ "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marko Dmitrović": { "opponents": [ "Vinícius Júnior", "Kylian Mbappé" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Vinícius Júnior": { "opponents": [ "Tyrhys Dolan" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marc Cucurella": { "opponents": [ "Álex Calatrava" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Bernardo Silva": { "opponents": [ "Javier Hernández", "Edu Expósito" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Federico Valverde": { "opponents": [ "Javier Hernández", "Urko González" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dean Huijsen": { "opponents": [ "Roberto Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ibrahima Konaté": { "opponents": [ "Roberto Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Arda Güler": { "opponents": [ "Roger Hinojo", "Tyrhys Dolan" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Brahim Díaz": { "opponents": [ "Clemens Riedel", "Álex Calatrava" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Denzel Dumfries": { "opponents": [ "Edu Expósito", "Urko González", "Javier Hernández" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Kylian Mbappé": { "opponents": [ "Omar El Hilali", "Unai Núñez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Thibaut Courtois": { "opponents": [ "Roberto Fernández", "Urko González" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Urko González vs Arda Güler). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.87, Away: 1.09. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9548, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0227, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.068, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8832, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9993, "home_midfield_factor": 0.962, "away_midfield_factor": 1.043, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4815, "away_avg_quality": 0.8195, "avg_quality_gap": -0.338, "squad_value_gap_log": -2.3434, "top5_value_gap_log": -2.2655, "attack_value_gap_log": -2.4747, "elite_count_gap": -7, "combined_quality_gap": -0.7168, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.95, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.6, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0728, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1167, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.7168, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1842, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9383, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 0.723, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 2.839, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.7228, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 2.8387, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 0.678, "final_away_lambda": 3.362 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 2, "opponent_position": 15, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.1076, "attack_index": 1.254, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.06, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 3.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 15, "opponent_position": 2, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9881, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 0.94, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 3.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-08-22T13:32:12Z" }