{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Sevilla", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260822", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-1", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1609, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Sevilla", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.3251, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1609 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1606 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1342 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1288 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0828 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1606, "0-1": 0.1609, "0-2": 0.0828, "0-3": 0.0281, "0-4": 0.0072, "0-5": 0.0015, "1-0": 0.1288, "1-1": 0.1342, "1-2": 0.0677, "1-3": 0.023, "1-4": 0.0059, "1-5": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.0532, "2-1": 0.0543, "2-2": 0.0277, "2-3": 0.0094, "2-4": 0.0024, "3-0": 0.0145, "3-1": 0.0148, "3-2": 0.0076, "3-3": 0.0026, "3-4": 0.0007, "4-0": 0.003, "4-1": 0.003, "4-2": 0.0015, "4-3": 0.0005 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2828, "draw": 0.3251, "away_win": 0.3921 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.2796, "under_2_5_goals": 0.7204, "btts_yes": 0.3586, "btts_no": 0.6414, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3606, "away_clean_sheet": 0.4413 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 85.21, "MCR": 85.38, "ATR": 83.32, "GK": 91.93 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 77.01, "MCR": 83.91, "ATR": 73.42, "GK": 78.7 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Athletic Club vs Sevilla. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Jon Guridi", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Mikel Jauregizar vs Lucien Agoumé will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.55, Away: 0.32. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle." }, "confidence": 0.67, "home_lambda": 0.818, "away_lambda": 1.02 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2828, "draw": 0.3251, "away_win": 0.3921 }, "favorite": "Sevilla", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3921, "fair_spread": -0.202, "fair_total": 1.838, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Athletic Club", "estimate": 0.818, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Sevilla", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.2796, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3586, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Athletic Club", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Sevilla", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4413, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Gorka Guruzeta (Athletic Club)", "estimate": 0.2016, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Oso (Sevilla)", "estimate": 0.3184, "probability": 0.1542, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Yuri Berchiche (Athletic Club)", "estimate": 0.4731, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Miguel Sierra (Sevilla)", "estimate": 0.1255, "probability": 0.3515, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "low", "expected_total_goals": 1.838, "expected_total_shots": 20, "expected_total_passes": 655, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.7, "possession_home_pct": 51.7, "possession_away_pct": 48.3, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Sevilla", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3921, "script": "Sevilla is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.20 goals and fair total 1.84.", "first_half": "Expect low tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 10 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Athletic Club must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Sevilla lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Athletic Club chance creation leans on Robert Navarro against Gabriel Suazo in Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Athletic Club: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Nico Williams, Beñat Prados, Maroan Sannadi.", "Sevilla: starters carry the main goal usage through Jon Guridi; bench watchlist: Juanlu Sánchez, Akor Adams, Isaac Romero.", "Assist usage should flow through Miguel Sierra; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Sevilla tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects low tempo, about 10 total first-half shots, and 0.92 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Athletic Club is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Sevilla.", "Athletic Club wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Athletic Club": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Gorka Guruzeta": { "player_id": 605672, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 188, "market_value": 4600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.2016, "goal_rate": 0.0019, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0056, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 83.3189, "minutes": 60, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 9, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 11, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 6, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 23, "possession_lost": 7.8974, "dispossessed": 0.9872, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 4, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.5035, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 4, "progressive_carries": 0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.184, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Andres Castrin, Arouna Sangante", "opponent_faced": "Andres Castrin, Arouna Sangante", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083731, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3371, "expected_assists": 0.013, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083656, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Celta 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"player_name": "Fredrik André Bjørkan", "ranking": 16302 }, { "player_name": "Rashid Abubakar", "ranking": 16303 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Escobar", "ranking": 16304 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Londoño", "ranking": 16305 } ] } } }, "Robert Navarro": { "player_id": 944165, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 178, "market_value": 6500000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0787, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "rating": 80.5372, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 19, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 19, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 35, "possession_lost": 9.2755, "dispossessed": 2.9825, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 3, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, 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"opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0325, "expected_assists": 0.1948, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 20, "key_pass": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083656, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Celta Vigo", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.3792, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 26, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", 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"squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.5372, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Robert Navarro", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kevin Paredes", "ranking": 18133 }, { "player_name": "Obed Nkambadio", "ranking": 18134 }, { "player_name": "Dimitri Foulquier", "ranking": 18135 }, { "player_name": "Nick Viergever", "ranking": 18136 }, { "player_name": "Azor Matusiwa", "ranking": 18137 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Arsen Zakharyan", "ranking": 18139 }, { "player_name": "Matěj Vydra", "ranking": 18140 }, { "player_name": "Stefano Denswil", "ranking": 18141 }, { "player_name": "Guido Carrillo", "ranking": 18142 }, { "player_name": "Elisha Owusu", "ranking": 18143 } ] } } }, "Iñaki Williams": { "player_id": 783374, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 186, "market_value": 7300000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.045, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1507, "rating": 89.4775, "minutes": 76, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 7, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 3, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 26, "possession_lost": 9.9708, "dispossessed": 1.4956, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.9971, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 2, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.8675, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 34, "progressive_carries": 2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.498, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back 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"match_date": "2026-06-23", "home_team": "England", "away_team": "Ghana", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ghana", "opponent": "England", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 6.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0071, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14083731, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Athletic Club", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 2, "expected_assists": 0.5147, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 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"total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 17624, "combined_rank_score": 1429.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 828.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6625, "sofascore_appearances": 32.0, "fifa_rank": 2031.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.8313, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Juanlu Sánchez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Senny Mayulu", "ranking": 17619 }, { "player_name": "Kerem Demirbay", "ranking": 17620 }, { "player_name": "Conrad Harder", "ranking": 17621 }, { "player_name": "Lloyd Kelly", "ranking": 17622 }, { "player_name": "Filip Panák", "ranking": 17623 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Peer Koopmeiners", "ranking": 17625 }, { "player_name": "Jan Schöppner", "ranking": 17626 }, { "player_name": "Tijjani Noslin", "ranking": 17627 }, { "player_name": "Perr Schuurs", "ranking": 17628 }, { "player_name": "Myrto Uzuni", "ranking": 17629 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.56, "total_shots": 9, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 287, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 79.97, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.3, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.8 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Robert Navarro", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 6500000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.481, "defenders": [ "Gabriel Suazo" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.482, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.479, "xg_contribution": 0.2201, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gabriel Suazo", "role": "RB", "market_value": 6600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.521 } ], "duel_analysis": "Robert Navarro (LW) is evenly matched against Gabriel Suazo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Projected xG contribution: 0.220 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Iñaki Williams", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 7300000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.49, "defenders": [ "Juan Iglesias" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.46, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.498, "xg_contribution": 0.1002, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Juan Iglesias", "role": "LB", "market_value": 4800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.502 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iñaki Williams (RW) is evenly matched against Juan Iglesias in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. Projected xG contribution: 0.100 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Oihan Sancet", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Jon Guridi", "Lucien Agoumé" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.503, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.339, "xg_contribution": 0.0461, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jon Guridi", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.661 }, { "player": "Lucien Agoumé", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.661 } ], "duel_analysis": "Oihan Sancet (CAM) faces tough defensive resistance against Jon Guridi and Lucien Agoumé in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €9M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.046 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Gorka Guruzeta", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 4600000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.457, "defenders": [ "Andres Castrin", "Arouna Sangante" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.488, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.184, "xg_contribution": 0.1205, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Andres Castrin", "role": "CB", "market_value": 6500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.816 }, { "player": "Arouna Sangante", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.816 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gorka Guruzeta (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Andres Castrin and Arouna Sangante in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.121 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Mikel Jauregizar", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Jon Guridi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.421, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.549, "xg_contribution": 0.0612, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jon Guridi", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.451 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mikel Jauregizar (CDM) is slightly favored against Jon Guridi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 55%. The quality gap is significant (€31M vs €2M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.061 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Oso", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 10500000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.528, "defenders": [ "Yuri Berchiche" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.411, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.541, "xg_contribution": 0.1277, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yuri Berchiche", "role": "RB", "market_value": 910000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.459 } ], "duel_analysis": "Oso (LW) is slightly favored against Yuri Berchiche in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 54%. Projected xG contribution: 0.128 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Peque Fernández", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 3300000, "attacker_height": 168, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.441, "defenders": [ "Jesús Areso" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.468, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.408, "xg_contribution": 0.0634, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jesús Areso", "role": "LB", "market_value": 5500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.592 } ], "duel_analysis": "Peque Fernández (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Jesús Areso in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Projected xG contribution: 0.063 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Miguel Sierra", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 330000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.404, "defenders": [ "Mikel Jauregizar", "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.574, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.186, "xg_contribution": 0.033, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mikel Jauregizar", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.814 }, { "player": "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.814 } ], "duel_analysis": "Miguel Sierra (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Mikel Jauregizar and Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. The quality gap is significant (€0M vs €16M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.033 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Robbie Ure", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 4800000, "attacker_height": 189, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.46, "defenders": [ "Aitor Paredes", "Yeray Álvarez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.45, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.222, "xg_contribution": 0.0584, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Aitor Paredes", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.778 }, { "player": "Yeray Álvarez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 930000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.778 } ], "duel_analysis": "Robbie Ure (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Aitor Paredes and Yeray Álvarez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 22%. Projected xG contribution: 0.058 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Jon Guridi", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 1700000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.421, "defenders": [ "Mikel Jauregizar" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.725, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.291, "xg_contribution": 0.0408, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 1, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mikel Jauregizar", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 31000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.709 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jon Guridi (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Mikel Jauregizar in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €31M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.041 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.607, "away_midfield_power": 0.526, "home_creative_power": 0.543, "away_creative_power": 0.43, "home_defensive_power": 0.701, "away_defensive_power": 0.495, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.536, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Robert Navarro", "Iñaki Williams", "Mikel Jauregizar", "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "Oihan Sancet" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Miguel Sierra", "Jon Guridi", "Lucien Agoumé", "Peque Fernández", "Oso" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.7, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 48.3, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.9, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.8, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.8, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.1, "home_throughball_threat": 2.2, "away_throughball_threat": 1.9, "key_personal_duel": "Mikel Jauregizar vs Lucien Agoumé", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.011, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.975 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 0.818, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Robert Navarro": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Suazo", "Oso" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Iñaki Williams": { "opponents": [ "Juan Iglesias", "Peque Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Oihan Sancet": { "opponents": [ "Jon Guridi", "Lucien Agoumé", "Miguel Sierra" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gorka Guruzeta": { "opponents": [ "Andres Castrin", "Arouna Sangante" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Mikel Jauregizar": { "opponents": [ "Jon Guridi", "Miguel Sierra" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yuri Berchiche": { "opponents": [ "Oso" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jesús Areso": { "opponents": [ "Peque Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta": { "opponents": [ "Miguel Sierra", "Lucien Agoumé" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Aitor Paredes": { "opponents": [ "Robbie Ure" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Yeray Álvarez": { "opponents": [ "Robbie Ure" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Unai Simón": { "opponents": [ "Robbie Ure", "Lucien Agoumé" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Gabriel Suazo": { "opponents": [ "Robert Navarro" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Juan Iglesias": { "opponents": [ "Iñaki Williams" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jon Guridi": { "opponents": [ "Oihan Sancet", "Mikel Jauregizar" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lucien Agoumé": { "opponents": [ "Oihan Sancet", "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Andres Castrin": { "opponents": [ "Gorka Guruzeta" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Arouna Sangante": { "opponents": [ "Gorka Guruzeta" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Oso": { "opponents": [ "Yuri Berchiche", "Robert Navarro" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Peque Fernández": { "opponents": [ "Jesús Areso", "Iñaki Williams" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Miguel Sierra": { "opponents": [ "Mikel Jauregizar", "Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta", "Oihan Sancet" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Robbie Ure": { "opponents": [ "Aitor Paredes", "Yeray Álvarez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Odysseas Vlachodimos": { "opponents": [ "Gorka Guruzeta", "Mikel Jauregizar" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Mikel Jauregizar vs Lucien Agoumé will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.55, Away: 0.32. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0096, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9273, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0645, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.118, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.982, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.008, "home_midfield_factor": 1.011, "away_midfield_factor": 0.975, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5023, "away_avg_quality": 0.4756, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0267, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.3287, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.4136, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.6135, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0807, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1776, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.113, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0254, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.054, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.818, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.704, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.8184, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.704, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 0.818, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 10, "opponent_position": 4, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.7052, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 0.418, "form_multiplier": 0.94, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.5, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 3.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 4, "opponent_position": 10, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9433, "attack_index": 0.836, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.06, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 3.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-08-22T13:31:45Z" }