{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Ipswich", "away_team": "Sunderland", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260822", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1256, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": null, "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2651, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1256 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1211 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0911 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0894 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0845 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0845, "0-1": 0.1211, "0-2": 0.0894, "0-3": 0.0436, "0-4": 0.0159, "0-5": 0.0047, "0-6": 0.0011, "1-0": 0.0841, "1-1": 0.1256, "1-2": 0.0911, "1-3": 0.0444, "1-4": 0.0163, "1-5": 0.0048, "1-6": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.0434, "2-1": 0.0635, "2-2": 0.0465, "2-3": 0.0227, "2-4": 0.0083, "2-5": 0.0024, "2-6": 0.0006, "3-0": 0.0148, "3-1": 0.0216, "3-2": 0.0158, "3-3": 0.0077, "3-4": 0.0028, "3-5": 0.0008, "4-0": 0.0038, "4-1": 0.0055, "4-2": 0.004, "4-3": 0.002, "4-4": 0.0007, "5-0": 0.0008, "5-1": 0.0011, "5-2": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2625, "draw": 0.2651, "away_win": 0.4724 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4518, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5482, "btts_yes": 0.4924, "btts_no": 0.5076, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2315, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3606 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 82.12, "MCR": 85.24, "ATR": 79.1, "GK": 79.81 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 80.96, "MCR": 82.25, "ATR": 84.66, "GK": 80.7 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Ipswich vs Sunderland. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Daizen Maeda, Brian Brobbey", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Abdul Fatawu Issahaku vs Noah Sadiki will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.63, Away: 1.01. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.73, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.463 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2625, "draw": 0.2651, "away_win": 0.4724 }, "favorite": "Sunderland", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4724, "fair_spread": -0.443, "fair_total": 2.483, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Ipswich", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Sunderland", "estimate": 1.463, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4518, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4924, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Ipswich", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2315, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Sunderland", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Issa Diop (Ipswich)", "estimate": 0.6268, "probability": 0.2163, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Brian Brobbey (Sunderland)", "estimate": 0.6085, "probability": 0.4145, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku (Ipswich)", "estimate": 0.1042, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Enzo Le Fée (Sunderland)", "estimate": 0.494, "probability": 0.6057, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.483, "expected_total_shots": 25, "expected_total_passes": 785, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.7, "possession_home_pct": 49.4, "possession_away_pct": 50.6, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Sunderland", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4724, "script": "Sunderland is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.44 goals and fair total 2.48.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Ipswich must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Sunderland lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Sunderland chance creation leans on Brian Brobbey against Jacob Greaves, Dara O'Shea in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Ipswich: starters carry the main goal usage through Daizen Maeda; bench watchlist: Julio Enciso, Anis Mehmeti, Chuba Akpom.", "Sunderland: starters carry the main goal usage through Brian Brobbey; bench watchlist: Habib Diarra, Eliezer Mayenda, Wilson Isidor.", "Assist usage should flow through Enzo Le Fée; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Sunderland tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.24 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Ipswich is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Sunderland.", "Ipswich wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Ipswich": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Emersonn": { "player_id": 1128844, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 186, "market_value": 7700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.057, "goal_rate": 0.2183, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0367, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 72.0685, "minutes": 28, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 3.9941, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 2, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.689, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 25, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.185, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Daniel Ballard, Reinildo Mandava", "opponent_faced": "Daniel Ballard, Reinildo Mandava", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2047, 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"stats": { "minutes": 1, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 19568, "combined_rank_score": 2873.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 1005.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.5176, "sofascore_appearances": 20.0, "fifa_rank": 4741.0, "fifa_overall": 71.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 0.0849, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Eliezer Mayenda", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Gianluca Lapadula", "ranking": 19563 }, { "player_name": "Marcelo Díaz", "ranking": 19564 }, { "player_name": "Maurice Cova", "ranking": 19565 }, { "player_name": "Taylor Booth", "ranking": 19566 }, { "player_name": "Marcos Ledesma", "ranking": 19567 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jorge Soto", "ranking": 19569 }, { "player_name": "Ignacio Sosa", "ranking": 19570 }, { "player_name": "Federico Ravaglia", "ranking": 19571 }, { "player_name": "Oscar Cortés", "ranking": 19572 }, { "player_name": "Martin Delavallée", "ranking": 19573 } ] } } }, "Habib Diarra": { "player_id": 1128532, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 179, "market_value": 37000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0147, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0791, "rating": 84.2903, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.208, "dispossessed": 1.0792, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.279, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.2706, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.558, "bench_expected_minutes": 23.27, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.617, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186771, "match_date": "2026-06-26", "home_team": "Senegal", "away_team": "Iraq", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Senegal", "opponent": "Iraq", "stats": { "minutes": 57, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5335, "expected_assists": 0.0502, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186501, "match_date": "2026-06-16", "home_team": "France", "away_team": "Senegal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Senegal", "opponent": "France", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0012, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14023966, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Chelsea", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1273, "expected_assists": 0.0387, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023955, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Sunderland", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1407, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 16949, "combined_rank_score": 1083.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 807.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.675, "sofascore_appearances": 20.0, "fifa_rank": 1360.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.2903, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Habib Diarra", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Tomas Kalinauskas", "ranking": 16944 }, { "player_name": "Martín Cárcamo", "ranking": 16945 }, { "player_name": "Dan Choi", "ranking": 16946 }, { "player_name": "Edwin Herrera", "ranking": 16947 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Atencio", "ranking": 16948 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Matías Zaracho", "ranking": 16950 }, { "player_name": "Valentin Rosier", "ranking": 16951 }, { "player_name": "Mukhammadali Musakhonov", "ranking": 16952 }, { "player_name": "Alessio Hasler", "ranking": 16953 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Godoy", "ranking": 16954 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.46, "expected_assists": 0.77, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 7, "total_passes": 402, "interceptions": 12, "tackles": 20, "avg_rating": 81.86, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.6, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Marcelino Núñez", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 14900000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.578, "defenders": [ "Luke O'Nien" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.408, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.552, "xg_contribution": 0.2722, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Luke O'Nien", "role": "RB", "market_value": 660000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.448 } ], "duel_analysis": "Marcelino Núñez (LW) is slightly favored against Luke O'Nien in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 55%. Projected xG contribution: 0.272 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Daizen Maeda", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 12600000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.552, "defenders": [ "Trai Hume" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.631, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.417, "xg_contribution": 0.1992, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Trai Hume", "role": "LB", "market_value": 20000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.583 } ], "duel_analysis": "Daizen Maeda (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Trai Hume in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.199 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Nilson Angulo", "Noah Sadiki" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.68, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.232, "xg_contribution": 0.0376, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nilson Angulo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 16500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.768 }, { "player": "Noah Sadiki", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 37000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.768 } ], "duel_analysis": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Nilson Angulo and Noah Sadiki in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. Projected xG contribution: 0.038 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Emersonn", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7700000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.495, "defenders": [ "Daniel Ballard", "Reinildo Mandava" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.551, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.185, "xg_contribution": 0.0709, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Daniel Ballard", "role": "CB", "market_value": 22000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.815 }, { "player": "Reinildo Mandava", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.815 } ], "duel_analysis": "Emersonn (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Daniel Ballard and Reinildo Mandava in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.071 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Saša Lukić", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 9400000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.515, "defenders": [ "Nilson Angulo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.595, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.388, "xg_contribution": 0.0542, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Nilson Angulo", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 16500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.612 } ], "duel_analysis": "Saša Lukić (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Nilson Angulo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Projected xG contribution: 0.054 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Chemsdine Talbi", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Issa Diop" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.501, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.491, "xg_contribution": 0.275, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Issa Diop", "role": "RB", "market_value": 8199999, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.509 } ], "duel_analysis": "Chemsdine Talbi (LW) is evenly matched against Issa Diop in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Projected xG contribution: 0.275 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Granit Xhaka", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 8500000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.505, "defenders": [ "Leif Davis" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.431, "xg_contribution": 0.212, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Leif Davis", "role": "LB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.569 } ], "duel_analysis": "Granit Xhaka (RW) is evenly matched against Leif Davis in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.212 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Enzo Le Fée", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Saša Lukić", "Florentino Luís" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.55, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.259, "xg_contribution": 0.1816, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Saša Lukić", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 9400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.741 }, { "player": "Florentino Luís", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.741 } ], "duel_analysis": "Enzo Le Fée (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Saša Lukić and Florentino Luís in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 26%. Projected xG contribution: 0.182 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Brian Brobbey", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 42000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.791, "defenders": [ "Jacob Greaves", "Dara O'Shea" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.581, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.252, "xg_contribution": 0.3009, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jacob Greaves", "role": "CB", "market_value": 13400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.748 }, { "player": "Dara O'Shea", "role": "CB", "market_value": 17000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.748 } ], "duel_analysis": "Brian Brobbey (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jacob Greaves and Dara O'Shea in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 25%. The quality gap is significant (€42M vs €15M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.301 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Nilson Angulo", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 16500000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.595, "defenders": [ "Saša Lukić" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.515, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.452, "xg_contribution": 0.0453, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Saša Lukić", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 9400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.548 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nilson Angulo (CDM) is evenly matched against Saša Lukić in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Projected xG contribution: 0.045 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.605, "away_midfield_power": 0.692, "home_creative_power": 0.518, "away_creative_power": 0.607, "home_defensive_power": 0.575, "away_defensive_power": 0.581, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.466, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Marcelino Núñez", "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "Saša Lukić", "Florentino Luís" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Nilson Angulo", "Enzo Le Fée", "Chemsdine Talbi", "Noah Sadiki", "Granit Xhaka" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.4, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.6, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.6, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.1, "home_throughball_threat": 2.2, "away_throughball_threat": 2.4, "key_personal_duel": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku vs Noah Sadiki", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.989, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.009 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.463, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Marcelino Núñez": { "opponents": [ "Luke O'Nien", "Chemsdine Talbi" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Daizen Maeda": { "opponents": [ "Trai Hume" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku": { "opponents": [ "Nilson Angulo", "Noah Sadiki", "Enzo Le Fée", "Granit Xhaka" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Emersonn": { "opponents": [ "Daniel Ballard", "Reinildo Mandava" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Saša Lukić": { "opponents": [ "Nilson Angulo", "Enzo Le Fée" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Issa Diop": { "opponents": [ "Chemsdine Talbi" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Leif Davis": { "opponents": [ "Granit Xhaka" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Florentino Luís": { "opponents": [ "Enzo Le Fée", "Noah Sadiki" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jacob Greaves": { "opponents": [ "Brian Brobbey" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dara O'Shea": { "opponents": [ "Brian Brobbey" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Kjell Scherpen": { "opponents": [ "Brian Brobbey", "Noah Sadiki" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Luke O'Nien": { "opponents": [ "Marcelino Núñez" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Trai Hume": { "opponents": [ "Daizen Maeda" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nilson Angulo": { "opponents": [ "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "Saša Lukić" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Noah Sadiki": { "opponents": [ "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "Florentino Luís" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Daniel Ballard": { "opponents": [ "Emersonn" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Reinildo Mandava": { "opponents": [ "Emersonn" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Chemsdine Talbi": { "opponents": [ "Issa Diop", "Marcelino Núñez" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Granit Xhaka": { "opponents": [ "Leif Davis", "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Enzo Le Fée": { "opponents": [ "Saša Lukić", "Florentino Luís", "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Brian Brobbey": { "opponents": [ "Jacob Greaves", "Dara O'Shea" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Robin Roefs": { "opponents": [ "Daizen Maeda", "Emersonn" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Abdul Fatawu Issahaku vs Noah Sadiki will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.63, Away: 1.01. Home danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8989, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.987, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.174, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0529, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9708, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9642, "home_midfield_factor": 0.989, "away_midfield_factor": 1.009, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.567, "away_avg_quality": 0.6141, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0471, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.3307, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.476, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.5818, "elite_count_gap": -1, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1143, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.2514, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.16, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0862, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0474, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.931, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.463, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.9312, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.4634, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.02, "final_away_lambda": 1.463 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 12, "opponent_position": 19, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 19, "opponent_position": 12, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-08-22T13:31:33Z" }