{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Barcelona", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260823", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "5-4-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.111, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": null, "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2342, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.111 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1044 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0982 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0935 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0613 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0597, "0-1": 0.1044, "0-2": 0.0935, "0-3": 0.0555, "0-4": 0.0247, "0-5": 0.0088, "0-6": 0.0026, "0-7": 0.0007, "1-0": 0.0613, "1-1": 0.111, "1-2": 0.0982, "1-3": 0.0582, "1-4": 0.0259, "1-5": 0.0092, "1-6": 0.0027, "1-7": 0.0007, "2-0": 0.0325, "2-1": 0.0579, "2-2": 0.0515, "2-3": 0.0306, "2-4": 0.0136, "2-5": 0.0048, "2-6": 0.0014, "3-0": 0.0114, "3-1": 0.0203, "3-2": 0.018, "3-3": 0.0107, "3-4": 0.0048, "3-5": 0.0017, "3-6": 0.0005, "4-0": 0.003, "4-1": 0.0053, "4-2": 0.0047, "4-3": 0.0028, "4-4": 0.0013, "5-0": 0.0006, "5-1": 0.0011, "5-2": 0.001, "5-3": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2216, "draw": 0.2342, "away_win": 0.5442 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5377, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4623, "btts_yes": 0.5411, "btts_no": 0.4589, "home_clean_sheet": 0.1686, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3499 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 76.46, "MCR": 78.8, "ATR": 6.31, "GK": 81.47 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 70.82, "MCR": 92.26, "ATR": 88.38, "GK": 90.3 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Elche vs Barcelona. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Fernando Niño, Raphinha", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 5-4-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~55% possession expected (Germán Valera vs Lamine Yamal). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.80, Away: 0.70. Home danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel. Away danger zone: CAM vs CM." }, "confidence": 0.77, "home_lambda": 1.05, "away_lambda": 1.78 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2216, "draw": 0.2342, "away_win": 0.5442 }, "favorite": "Barcelona", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5442, "fair_spread": -0.73, "fair_total": 2.83, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Elche", "estimate": 1.05, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Barcelona", "estimate": 1.78, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5377, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5411, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Elche", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1686, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Barcelona", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3499, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ali Houary (Elche)", "estimate": 0.3463, "probability": 0.1879, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Raphinha (Barcelona)", "estimate": 0.6385, "probability": 0.3009, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Ali Houary (Elche)", "estimate": 0.2075, "probability": 0.3754, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Lamine Yamal (Barcelona)", "estimate": 0.2979, "probability": 0.2829, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.83, "expected_total_shots": 20, "expected_total_passes": 935, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.6, "possession_home_pct": 45.2, "possession_away_pct": 54.8, "notes": "Barcelona projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Barcelona", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5442, "script": "Barcelona is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.73 goals and fair total 2.83.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 10 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Elche must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Barcelona lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Barcelona chance creation leans on Raphinha against Marc Aguado in CAM vs CM; Barcelona projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Elche: starters carry the main goal usage through Fernando Niño; bench watchlist: Álvaro Rodriguez, Rafa Mir.", "Barcelona: starters carry the main goal usage through Raphinha; bench watchlist: Pedri, Anthony Gordon, Karim Adeyemi.", "Assist usage should flow through Ali Houary, Raphinha; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Barcelona tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 10 total first-half shots, and 1.42 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Elche is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Barcelona.", "Elche wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Elche": { "formation": "5-4-1", "players": { "Fernando Niño": { "player_id": 1016019, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 190, "market_value": 1800000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.318, "goal_rate": 0.0018, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0228, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 6.3074, "minutes": 68, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 14, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 29, "possession_lost": 9.8123, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 5, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.2159, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 17, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Eric García, Gerard Martín", "opponent_faced": "Eric García, Gerard Martín", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 1, "goal_probability": 0.2525, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0164, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421050, "match_date": "2026-08-17", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4572, "expected_assists": 0.0247, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 14, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.3074, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Fernando Niño", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } }, "Marc Aguado": { "player_id": 1014595, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 178, "market_value": 3700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0144, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "rating": 76.6766, "minutes": 87, "total_pass": 51, "accurate_pass": 46, "ball_recovery": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 27, "accurate_own_half_passes": 26, "total_opp_half_passes": 24, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 57, "possession_lost": 5.1651, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 4, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.9838, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.4919, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 26, "progressive_carries": 0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.256, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Fermín López", "opponent_faced": "Fermín López", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2403, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1064, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421050, "match_date": "2026-08-17", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0451, "expected_assists": 0.0112, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 65, "accurate_pass": 60, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083743, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Girona FC", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0089, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 42, "accurate_pass": 35, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083671, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 84, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0097, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 33, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083608, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Real Betis", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0306, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 61, "accurate_pass": 59, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 19864, "combined_rank_score": 3095.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 608.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8143, "sofascore_appearances": 35.0, "fifa_rank": 5582.0, "fifa_overall": 70.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.6766, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Marc Aguado", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Gavin Bazunu", "ranking": 19859 }, { "player_name": "Sadibou Sané", "ranking": 19860 }, { "player_name": "Iván Rojas", "ranking": 19861 }, { "player_name": "Georgios Masouras", "ranking": 19862 }, { "player_name": "Juan Camilo Portilla", "ranking": 19863 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Hayden Hackney", "ranking": 19865 }, { "player_name": "Florián Monzón", "ranking": 19866 }, { "player_name": "Joël Almada Monteiro", "ranking": 19867 }, { "player_name": "Damián", "ranking": 19868 }, { "player_name": "Andrei Burcă", "ranking": 19869 } ] } } }, "Lucas Cepeda": { "player_id": 1126447, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 177, "market_value": 2600000, "stats": { "key_pass": 2, "expected_assists": 0.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0196, "rating": 79.2079, "minutes": 77, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 24, "ball_recovery": 4, "duels_won": 4, "total_shots": 1, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 7, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 28, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 48, "possession_lost": 13.4134, "dispossessed": 1.9625, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 3, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "crosses_attempted": 2.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.255, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Jules Koundé", "opponent_faced": "Jules Koundé", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.04, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1722, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421050, "match_date": "2026-08-17", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0388, "expected_assists": 0.0056, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 17, "interceptions": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083671, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Elche", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Elche", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14169222, "match_date": "2025-09-09", "home_team": "Chile", "away_team": "Uruguay", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chile", "opponent": "Uruguay", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 28, "key_pass": 6, "interceptions": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14169219, "match_date": "2025-09-05", "home_team": "Brazil", "away_team": "Chile", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chile", "opponent": "Brazil", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 3, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 20, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 13856227, "match_date": "2025-06-10", "home_team": "Bolivia", "away_team": "Chile", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Chile", "opponent": "Bolivia", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 22, "key_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. 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"Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Barcelona", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1357, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 111, "accurate_pass": 104, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 6, "combined_rank_score": 13.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 7.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.425, "sofascore_appearances": 4.0, "fifa_rank": 19.0, "fifa_overall": 89.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.7782, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Pedri", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ryu Won-Woo", "ranking": 1 }, { "player_name": "Lamine Yamal", "ranking": 2 }, { "player_name": "Maximiliano Gutiérrez", "ranking": 3 }, { "player_name": "Kylian Mbappé", "ranking": 4 }, { "player_name": "Erling Haaland", "ranking": 5 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Nico López", "ranking": 7 }, { "player_name": "Andy Vidal", "ranking": 8 }, { "player_name": "James Rodríguez", "ranking": 9 }, { "player_name": "Memphis Depay", "ranking": 10 }, { "player_name": "Gustavo Henrique", "ranking": 11 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.78, "expected_assists": 0.99, "total_shots": 8, "shots_on_target": 8, "total_passes": 487, "interceptions": 9, "tackles": 19, "avg_rating": 81.99, "possession_estimated_pct": 54.8, "pressing_actions_per_90": 9.4 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Fernando Niño", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 1800000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.422, "defenders": [ "Eric García", "Gerard Martín" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.754, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.3003, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Eric García", "role": "CB", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Gerard Martín", "role": "CB", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Fernando Niño (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Eric García and Gerard Martín in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €36M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.300 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Lucas Cepeda", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 2600000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.432, "defenders": [ "Jules Koundé" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.861, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.255, "xg_contribution": 0.014, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jules Koundé", "role": "RB", "market_value": 64000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.4, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.745 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lucas Cepeda (LM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jules Koundé in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €64M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.014 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ali Houary", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 310000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.404, "defenders": [ "Jordi Pesquer" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.437, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.425, "xg_contribution": 0.3285, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jordi Pesquer", "role": "LB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.575 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ali Houary (RM) is evenly matched against Jordi Pesquer in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.329 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Víctor Chust", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 3700000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.446, "defenders": [ "Xavi Espart", "Jules Koundé" ], "defender_roles": [ "RW", "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.663, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0444, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Xavi Espart", "role": "RW", "market_value": 5300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jules Koundé", "role": "RB", "market_value": 64000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Víctor Chust (LWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Xavi Espart and Jules Koundé in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €35M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.044 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Federico Redondo", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 2400000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.43, "defenders": [ "Lamine Yamal", "Jordi Pesquer" ], "defender_roles": [ "LW", "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0316, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lamine Yamal", "role": "LW", "market_value": 237000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jordi Pesquer", "role": "LB", "market_value": 0, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Federico Redondo (RWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Lamine Yamal and Jordi Pesquer in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€2M vs €118M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.032 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Marc Aguado", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 3700000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.446, "defenders": [ "Fermín López" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.894, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.256, "xg_contribution": 0.0791, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Fermín López", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 103000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.4, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.744 } ], "duel_analysis": "Marc Aguado (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Fermín López in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €103M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.079 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Lamine Yamal", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 237000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "David Affengruber" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.612, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.542, "xg_contribution": 0.1495, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "David Affengruber", "role": "CB", "market_value": 18100000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.458 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lamine Yamal (LW) is slightly favored against David Affengruber in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 54%. The quality gap is significant (€237M vs €18M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.149 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Raphinha", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 63000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.859, "defenders": [ "Marc Aguado" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.446, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.598, "xg_contribution": 0.3368, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Aguado", "role": "CM", "market_value": 3700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.402 } ], "duel_analysis": "Raphinha (CAM) is slightly favored against Marc Aguado in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 60%. The quality gap is significant (€63M vs €4M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.337 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Hamza Abdelkarim", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 1500000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.419, "defenders": [ "David Affengruber", "Buba Sangaré" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.533, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1946, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "David Affengruber", "role": "CB", "market_value": 18100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Buba Sangaré", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Hamza Abdelkarim (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against David Affengruber and Buba Sangaré in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.195 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Xavi Espart", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 5300000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.466, "defenders": [ "David Affengruber" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.612, "duel_zone": "RW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.314, "xg_contribution": 0.0167, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "David Affengruber", "role": "CB", "market_value": 18100000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.686 } ], "duel_analysis": "Xavi Espart (RW) is heavily outmatched defensively against David Affengruber in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. Projected xG contribution: 0.017 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.51, "away_midfield_power": 0.866, "home_creative_power": 0.412, "away_creative_power": 1.011, "home_defensive_power": 0.377, "away_defensive_power": 0.922, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.371, "home_midfield_count": 6, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Marc Aguado", "Lucas Cepeda", "Gonzalo Villar", "Ali Houary", "Germán Valera", "Federico Redondo" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Raphinha", "Fermín López", "Lamine Yamal", "Marc Bernal" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 45.2, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 54.8, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 9.4, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.0, "away_key_passes_projected": 7.6, "home_throughball_threat": 1.8, "away_throughball_threat": 3.6, "key_personal_duel": "Germán Valera vs Lamine Yamal", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.945, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.06 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "5-4-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.01, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 5-4-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.05, "away_lambda": 1.78, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "CAM vs CM", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Fernando Niño": { "opponents": [ "Eric García", "Gerard Martín" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Lucas Cepeda": { "opponents": [ "Jules Koundé", "Lamine Yamal" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ali Houary": { "opponents": [ "Jordi Pesquer", "Raphinha" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Víctor Chust": { "opponents": [ "Xavi Espart", "Jules Koundé" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Federico Redondo": { "opponents": [ "Lamine Yamal", "Jordi Pesquer", "Fermín López" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Marc Aguado": { "opponents": [ "Fermín López", "Raphinha" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "David Affengruber": { "opponents": [ "Lamine Yamal", "Hamza Abdelkarim", "Xavi Espart" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Buba Sangaré": { "opponents": [ "Hamza Abdelkarim" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Gonzalo Villar": { "opponents": [ "Raphinha" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Germán Valera": { "opponents": [ "Marc Bernal" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Matías Dituro": { "opponents": [ "Hamza Abdelkarim", "Marc Bernal" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Eric García": { "opponents": [ "Fernando Niño" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Gerard Martín": { "opponents": [ "Fernando Niño" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jules Koundé": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Cepeda", "Víctor Chust" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jordi Pesquer": { "opponents": [ "Ali Houary", "Federico Redondo" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Xavi Espart": { "opponents": [ "Víctor Chust", "David Affengruber" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "Lamine Yamal": { "opponents": [ "Federico Redondo", "David Affengruber", "Lucas Cepeda" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Fermín López": { "opponents": [ "Marc Aguado", "Federico Redondo" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Raphinha": { "opponents": [ "Marc Aguado", "Gonzalo Villar", "Ali Houary" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Hamza Abdelkarim": { "opponents": [ "David Affengruber", "Buba Sangaré" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Marc Bernal": { "opponents": [ "Germán Valera" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Joan García": { "opponents": [ "Fernando Niño", "Germán Valera" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~55% possession expected (Germán Valera vs Lamine Yamal). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.80, Away: 0.70. Home danger zone: Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel. Away danger zone: CAM vs CM.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8584, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0255, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.051, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0779, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9184, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9935, "home_midfield_factor": 0.945, "away_midfield_factor": 1.06, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4546, "away_avg_quality": 0.7053, "avg_quality_gap": -0.2508, "squad_value_gap_log": -2.3639, "top5_value_gap_log": -2.4153, "attack_value_gap_log": -2.7375, "elite_count_gap": -4, "combined_quality_gap": -0.6091, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.95, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.6, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0654, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0393, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.6091, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1573, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9491, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 0.715, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 1.538, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.05, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.679, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.78, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.7154, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.5383, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.05, "final_away_lambda": 1.78 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 7, "opponent_position": 12, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.7263, "attack_index": 0.418, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.046, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 1.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 12, "opponent_position": 7, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.708, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 0.418, "form_multiplier": 0.954, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.5, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 1.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-08-23T13:31:42Z" }