{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Man City", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260823", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "3-0", "home_goals": 3, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1108, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Man City", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.0832, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.1108 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0965 }, { "score": "4-0", "probability": 0.0954 }, { "score": "3-1", "probability": 0.075 }, { "score": "5-0", "probability": 0.0657 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0164, "0-1": 0.0109, "0-2": 0.0037, "0-3": 0.0008, "1-0": 0.056, "1-1": 0.038, "1-2": 0.0128, "1-3": 0.0029, "2-0": 0.0965, "2-1": 0.0654, "2-2": 0.0221, "2-3": 0.005, "2-4": 0.0008, "3-0": 0.1108, "3-1": 0.075, "3-2": 0.0254, "3-3": 0.0057, "3-4": 0.001, "4-0": 0.0954, "4-1": 0.0646, "4-2": 0.0219, "4-3": 0.0049, "4-4": 0.0008, "5-0": 0.0657, "5-1": 0.0445, "5-2": 0.0151, "5-3": 0.0034, "5-4": 0.0006, "6-0": 0.0377, "6-1": 0.0255, "6-2": 0.0086, "6-3": 0.002, "7-0": 0.0186, "7-1": 0.0126, "7-2": 0.0043, "7-3": 0.001, "8-0": 0.008, "8-1": 0.0054, "8-2": 0.0018, "9-0": 0.0031, "9-1": 0.0021, "9-2": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.8776, "draw": 0.0832, "away_win": 0.0392 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.7784, "under_2_5_goals": 0.2216, "btts_yes": 0.4762, "btts_no": 0.5238, "home_clean_sheet": 0.5081, "away_clean_sheet": 0.032 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 87.98, "MCR": 89.28, "ATR": 98.65, "GK": 96.56 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 82.07, "MCR": 84.35, "ATR": 87.15, "GK": 87.18 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Man City vs Bournemouth. Most likely scoreline: 3-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Erling Haaland (3)", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Elliot Anderson vs Rayan will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.47, Away: 0.57. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle." }, "confidence": 0.92, "home_lambda": 3.444, "away_lambda": 0.677 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.8776, "draw": 0.0832, "away_win": 0.0392 }, "favorite": "Man City", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8776, "fair_spread": 2.767, "fair_total": 4.121, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Man City", "estimate": 3.444, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Bournemouth", "estimate": 0.677, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.7784, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4762, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Man City", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5081, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Bournemouth", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.032, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Erling Haaland (Man City)", "estimate": 1.5433, "probability": 0.924, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "António Silva (Bournemouth)", "estimate": 0.274, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Phil Foden (Man City)", "estimate": 0.1603, "probability": 0.251, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Marcus Tavernier (Bournemouth)", "estimate": 0.2783, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 4.121, "expected_total_shots": 27, "expected_total_passes": 846, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.2, "possession_home_pct": 51.1, "possession_away_pct": 48.9, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Man City", "favorite_win_probability": 0.8776, "script": "Man City is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +2.77 goals and fair total 4.12.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Bournemouth must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Man City lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Man City chance creation leans on Erling Haaland against António Silva, James Hill in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Man City: starters carry the main goal usage through Erling Haaland (3); bench watchlist: Omar Marmoush, Tijjani Reijnders.", "Bournemouth: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Eli Junior Kroupi, Tyler Adams, Amine Adli.", "Assist usage should flow through Phil Foden; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Man City tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 2.06 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Bournemouth is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Man City.", "Bournemouth wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Man City": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Erling Haaland": { "player_id": 839956, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 194, "market_value": 240000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 1.5433, "goal_rate": 1.7602, "goals": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "expected_assists": 0.1129, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 98.6541, "minutes": 95, "total_shots": 3, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 8, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 24, "possession_lost": 6.9664, "dispossessed": 2.52, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "blocks": 2, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 2, "xgot": 1.4672, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.332, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "António Silva, James Hill", "opponent_faced": "António Silva, James Hill", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 3, "goal_probability": 0.924, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.1249, "fifa_overall": 90.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 12813017, "match_date": "2026-07-11 21:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": 16, "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": 58210, "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026", "home_team": "Norway", "away_team": "England", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 110, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "AET", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Norway", "opponent": "England", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 12813006, "match_date": "2026-07-05", "home_team": "Brazil", "away_team": "Norway", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Norway", "opponent": "Brazil", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.1, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4674, "expected_assists": 0.0742, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 12812989, "match_date": "2026-06-30", "home_team": "Côte d'Ivoire", "away_team": "Norway", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Norway", "opponent": "Côte d'Ivoire", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.1677, "expected_assists": 0.01, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186770, "match_date": "2026-06-23", "home_team": "Norway", "away_team": "Senegal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Norway", "opponent": "Senegal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.4, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8373, "expected_assists": 0.1358, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 3, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186773, "match_date": "2026-06-16", "home_team": "Iraq", "away_team": "Norway", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Norway", "opponent": "Iraq", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.8475, "expected_assists": 0.0662, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 4, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14023936, "match_date": "2026-05-19", "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2337, "expected_assists": 0.5618, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 15, "accurate_pass": 12, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023946, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 1.2207, "expected_assists": 0.093, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 4, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631365, "match_date": "2026-03-17", "home_team": "Manchester City", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 56, "rating": 7.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 1.1362, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 7, "shots_on_target": 5, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631329, "match_date": "2026-03-11", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Manchester City", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester City", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0065, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13233679, "match_date": "2025-11-16", "home_team": "Italy", "away_team": "Norway", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Norway", "opponent": "Italy", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 8.6, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 10, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 5, "combined_rank_score": 11.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 12.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.2125, "sofascore_appearances": 8.0, "fifa_rank": 10.0, "fifa_overall": 90.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 8.6541, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Erling Haaland", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ryu Won-Woo", "ranking": 1 }, { "player_name": "Lamine Yamal", "ranking": 2 }, { "player_name": "Maximiliano Gutiérrez", "ranking": 3 }, { "player_name": "Kylian Mbappé", "ranking": 4 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Pedri", "ranking": 6 }, { "player_name": "Nico López", "ranking": 7 }, { "player_name": "Andy Vidal", "ranking": 8 }, { "player_name": "James Rodríguez", "ranking": 9 }, { "player_name": "Memphis Depay", "ranking": 10 } ] } } }, "Antoine Semenyo": { "player_id": 934354, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 42, "height": 185, "market_value": 85000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.062, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1169, "rating": 87.1257, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 18, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 5, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 6, "accurate_own_half_passes": 6, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 12, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 40, "possession_lost": 12.4633, "dispossessed": 1.484, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 5, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 3, "goal_rate": 1.1158, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.3905, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 116, "progressive_carries": 5, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.1, "crosses_attempted": 2.7, "duel_win_rate": 0.599, "pressing_faced": "MEDIUM", "matchup_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Adrien Truffert", "opponent_faced": "Adrien Truffert", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2856, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0801, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 12813011, "match_date": "2026-07-04", "home_team": "Colombia", "away_team": "Ghana", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ghana", "opponent": "Colombia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.111, "expected_assists": 0.0166, "total_shots": 3, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186624, "match_date": "2026-06-27", "home_team": "Croatia", "away_team": "Ghana", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Ghana", "opponent": "Croatia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0183, "expected_assists": 0.0161, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": 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"match_date": "2024-06-27", "home_team": "Panama", "away_team": "USA", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "USA", "opponent": "Panama", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 11, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" }, { "match_id": 11886363, "match_date": "2024-06-23", "home_team": "USA", "away_team": "Bolivia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "USA", "opponent": "Bolivia", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0581, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 37, "accurate_pass": 32, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 15286, "combined_rank_score": 694.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 565.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8417, "sofascore_appearances": 25.0, "fifa_rank": 824.0, "fifa_overall": 79.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.1821, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Tyler Adams", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Rocco Reitz", "ranking": 15281 }, { "player_name": "Ryan Gauld", "ranking": 15282 }, { "player_name": "Fermín", "ranking": 15283 }, { "player_name": "Nuno Santos", "ranking": 15284 }, { "player_name": "Bryan Cristante", "ranking": 15285 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Danilho Doekhi", "ranking": 15287 }, { "player_name": "Nam Ha", "ranking": 15288 }, { "player_name": "Bu-Seong Jang", "ranking": 15289 }, { "player_name": "Alisher Salimov", "ranking": 15290 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Aedo", "ranking": 15291 } ] } } }, "Ben Gannon-Doak": { "player_id": 1154861, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 174, "market_value": 15500000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0098, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0048, "rating": 86.6639, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "ball_recovery": 0, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 2, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 2.3975, "dispossessed": 1.0254, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 10, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.525, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.56, "projected_substitution_order": 4, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 4, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.641, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 15186861, "match_date": "2026-06-24", "home_team": "Scotland", "away_team": "Brazil", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Scotland", "opponent": "Brazil", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 6.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1074, "expected_assists": 0.0054, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 19, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186859, "match_date": "2026-06-19", "home_team": "Scotland", "away_team": "Morocco", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Scotland", "opponent": "Morocco", "stats": { "minutes": 30, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0046, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186853, "match_date": "2026-06-14", "home_team": "Haiti", "away_team": "Scotland", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Scotland", "opponent": "Haiti", "stats": { "minutes": 75, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0587, "expected_assists": 0.0786, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 19, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14023964, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Bournemouth", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 33, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1726, "expected_assists": 0.0269, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13233690, "match_date": "2025-11-18", "home_team": "Scotland", "away_team": "Denmark", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Scotland", "opponent": "Denmark", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 1, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 1, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3969, "combined_rank_score": 477.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 374.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9833, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 580.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.6639, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ben Gannon-Doak", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ezri Konsa", "ranking": 3964 }, { "player_name": "Franck Kessié", "ranking": 3965 }, { "player_name": "Sava Petrov", "ranking": 3966 }, { "player_name": "Gustavo Gómez", "ranking": 3967 }, { "player_name": "Brayan Rovira", "ranking": 3968 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jong-Min Park", "ranking": 3970 }, { "player_name": "Allan Wlk", "ranking": 3971 }, { "player_name": "Miloš Vulić", "ranking": 3972 }, { "player_name": "Sander Eng Strand", "ranking": 3973 }, { "player_name": "Jorge Álvarez", "ranking": 3974 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.68, "expected_assists": 0.68, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_passes": 418, "interceptions": 10, "tackles": 14, "avg_rating": 84.03, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.9, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.7 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Antoine Semenyo", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 85000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.886, "defenders": [ "Adrien Truffert" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.702, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.599, "xg_contribution": 0.0702, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrien Truffert", "role": "RB", "market_value": 28000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.401 } ], "duel_analysis": "Antoine Semenyo (LW) is slightly favored against Adrien Truffert in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 60%. The quality gap is significant (€85M vs €28M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.070 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Rayan Cherki", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 98000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.893, "defenders": [ "Adam Smith" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.404, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.684, "xg_contribution": 0.4296, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 2.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.0, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adam Smith", "role": "LB", "market_value": 310000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.316 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rayan Cherki (RW) has a clear attacking advantage against Adam Smith in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 68%. The quality gap is significant (€98M vs €0M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.430 — and projects to generate high-quality chances." }, { "attacker": "Phil Foden", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 66000000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.864, "defenders": [ "Alex Scott", "Lewis Cook" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.688, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.298, "xg_contribution": 0.2094, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alex Scott", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 53000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.702 }, { "player": "Lewis Cook", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 11600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.702 } ], "duel_analysis": "Phil Foden (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Alex Scott and Lewis Cook in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€66M vs €32M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.209 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Erling Haaland", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 240000000, "attacker_height": 194, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.9, "defenders": [ "António Silva", "James Hill" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.681, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.332, "xg_contribution": 0.7353, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "António Silva", "role": "CB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.668 }, { "player": "James Hill", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.668 } ], "duel_analysis": "Erling Haaland (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against António Silva and James Hill in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€240M vs €26M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.735 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Mateo Kovačić", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 9700000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.519, "defenders": [ "Alex Scott" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.834, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.278, "xg_contribution": 0.029, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alex Scott", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 53000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.722 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mateo Kovačić (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Alex Scott in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€10M vs €53M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.029 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Marcus Tavernier", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Matheus Nunes" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.817, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.389, "xg_contribution": 0.2886, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Matheus Nunes", "role": "RB", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.611 } ], "duel_analysis": "Marcus Tavernier (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Matheus Nunes in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. The quality gap is significant (€23M vs €48M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.289 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Rayan", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 58000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.848, "defenders": [ "Rúben Dias" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.853, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.466, "xg_contribution": 0.0546, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Rúben Dias", "role": "LB", "market_value": 60000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.534 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rayan (RW) is evenly matched against Rúben Dias in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Projected xG contribution: 0.055 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Justin Kluivert", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Mateo Kovačić", "Elliot Anderson" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.706, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.193, "xg_contribution": 0.0349, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mateo Kovačić", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 9700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.807 }, { "player": "Elliot Anderson", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 100000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.807 } ], "duel_analysis": "Justin Kluivert (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Mateo Kovačić and Elliot Anderson in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €55M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.035 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Evanilson", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 33000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.739, "defenders": [ "Joško Gvardiol", "Nico O'Reilly" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.869, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0913, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Joško Gvardiol", "role": "CB", "market_value": 64000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Nico O'Reilly", "role": "CB", "market_value": 76000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Evanilson (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Joško Gvardiol and Nico O'Reilly in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€33M vs €70M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.091 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Alex Scott", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 53000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.834, "defenders": [ "Mateo Kovačić" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.519, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.562, "xg_contribution": 0.0957, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mateo Kovačić", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 9700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.438 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alex Scott (CDM) is slightly favored against Mateo Kovačić in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 56%. The quality gap is significant (€53M vs €10M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.096 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.861, "away_midfield_power": 0.76, "home_creative_power": 0.804, "away_creative_power": 0.643, "home_defensive_power": 0.74, "away_defensive_power": 0.614, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.531, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Antoine Semenyo", "Phil Foden", "Rayan Cherki", "Mateo Kovačić", "Elliot Anderson" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Alex Scott", "Lewis Cook", "Marcus Tavernier", "Justin Kluivert", "Rayan" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.1, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 48.9, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.5, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.7, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.3, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.4, "home_throughball_threat": 3.0, "away_throughball_threat": 2.5, "key_personal_duel": "Elliot Anderson vs Rayan", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.016, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.988 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 3.444, "away_lambda": 0.677, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "CDM vs CDM" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Antoine Semenyo": { "opponents": [ "Adrien Truffert", "Marcus Tavernier" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Rayan Cherki": { "opponents": [ "Adam Smith", "Rayan" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Phil Foden": { "opponents": [ "Alex Scott", "Lewis Cook", "Justin Kluivert" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Erling Haaland": { "opponents": [ "António Silva", "James Hill" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Mateo Kovačić": { "opponents": [ "Alex Scott", "Justin Kluivert" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Matheus Nunes": { "opponents": [ "Marcus Tavernier" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Rúben Dias": { "opponents": [ "Rayan" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Elliot Anderson": { "opponents": [ "Justin Kluivert", "Lewis Cook" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Joško Gvardiol": { "opponents": [ "Evanilson" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nico O'Reilly": { "opponents": [ "Evanilson" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Gianluigi Donnarumma": { "opponents": [ "Evanilson", "Rayan" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Adrien Truffert": { "opponents": [ "Antoine Semenyo" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Adam Smith": { "opponents": [ "Rayan Cherki" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alex Scott": { "opponents": [ "Phil Foden", "Mateo Kovačić" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lewis Cook": { "opponents": [ "Phil Foden", "Elliot Anderson" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "António Silva": { "opponents": [ "Erling Haaland" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "James Hill": { "opponents": [ "Erling Haaland" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marcus Tavernier": { "opponents": [ "Matheus Nunes", "Antoine Semenyo" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Rayan": { "opponents": [ "Rúben Dias", "Rayan Cherki" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Justin Kluivert": { "opponents": [ "Mateo Kovačić", "Elliot Anderson", "Phil Foden" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Evanilson": { "opponents": [ "Joško Gvardiol", "Nico O'Reilly" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Đorđe Petrović": { "opponents": [ "Erling Haaland", "Elliot Anderson" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Elliot Anderson vs Rayan will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.47, Away: 0.57. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8989, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8584, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0843, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.933, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8661, "home_midfield_factor": 1.016, "away_midfield_factor": 0.988, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.8364, "away_avg_quality": 0.6759, "avg_quality_gap": 0.1605, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.0766, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.0695, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.0519, "elite_count_gap": 7, "combined_quality_gap": 0.378, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.8315, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.5291, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1683, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0457, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.378, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.0995, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9722, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 3.132, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 0.696, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 3.1323, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.6957, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 3.444, "final_away_lambda": 0.677 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 15, "opponent_position": 1, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 1, "opponent_position": 15, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-08-23T13:31:02Z" }