{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "R. Racing Club", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260823", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-1-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1344, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": null, "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2915, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1344 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1293 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1108 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1106 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0793 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1108, "0-1": 0.1293, "0-2": 0.0777, "0-3": 0.0309, "0-4": 0.0092, "0-5": 0.0022, "1-0": 0.1106, "1-1": 0.1344, "1-2": 0.0793, "1-3": 0.0315, "1-4": 0.0094, "1-5": 0.0022, "2-0": 0.057, "2-1": 0.0679, "2-2": 0.0404, "2-3": 0.0161, "2-4": 0.0048, "2-5": 0.0011, "3-0": 0.0194, "3-1": 0.0231, "3-2": 0.0137, "3-3": 0.0055, "3-4": 0.0016, "4-0": 0.0049, "4-1": 0.0059, "4-2": 0.0035, "4-3": 0.0014, "5-0": 0.001, "5-1": 0.0012, "5-2": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3114, "draw": 0.2915, "away_win": 0.3971 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3802, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6198, "btts_yes": 0.4463, "btts_no": 0.5537, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3039, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3606 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 81.83, "MCR": 80.35, "ATR": 82.33, "GK": 87.91 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 54.12, "MCR": 67.29, "ATR": 6.44, "GK": 87.07 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Getafe vs R. Racing Club. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Martín Satriano, Andrés Martín", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-1-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Mario Martín vs Gustavo Puerta will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.40, Away: 0.90. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: LW vs CB." }, "confidence": 0.71, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.191 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3114, "draw": 0.2915, "away_win": 0.3971 }, "favorite": "R. Racing Club", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3971, "fair_spread": -0.171, "fair_total": 2.211, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Getafe", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "R. Racing Club", "estimate": 1.191, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3802, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4463, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Getafe", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3039, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "R. Racing Club", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Martín Satriano (Getafe)", "estimate": 0.3695, "probability": 0.5069, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Andrés Martín (R. Racing Club)", "estimate": 0.5682, "probability": 0.4124, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Ramón Terrats (Getafe)", "estimate": 0.0979, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Andrés Martín (R. Racing Club)", "estimate": 0.3648, "probability": 0.4785, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.211, "expected_total_shots": 21, "expected_total_passes": 595, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.9, "possession_home_pct": 49.3, "possession_away_pct": 50.7, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "R. Racing Club", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3971, "script": "R. Racing Club is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.17 goals and fair total 2.21.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 10 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Getafe must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A R. Racing Club lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "R. Racing Club chance creation leans on Andrés Martín against Zaid Romero in LW vs CB; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Getafe: starters carry the main goal usage through Martín Satriano; bench watchlist: Christantus Uche, Borja Mayoral.", "R. Racing Club: starters carry the main goal usage through Andrés Martín; bench watchlist: Yassir Zabiri, Giorgi Guliashvili.", "Assist usage should flow through Andrés Martín; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: R. Racing Club tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 10 total first-half shots, and 1.11 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Getafe is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for R. Racing Club.", "Getafe wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Getafe": { "formation": "3-4-1-2", "players": { "Orel Mangala": { "player_id": 793988, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 178, "market_value": 8600000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "rating": 83.5925, "minutes": 49, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 18, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 5, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 25, "possession_lost": 4.007, "dispossessed": 2.0035, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 32, "progressive_carries": 0, "opponent_faced": "Iñigo Vicente, Sergio Canales", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", 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"player_name": "Aleksandar Mitrović", "ranking": 274 }, { "player_name": "N'Golo Kanté", "ranking": 275 }, { "player_name": "Luca Reggiani", "ranking": 276 }, { "player_name": "Facundo Torres", "ranking": 277 } ] } } }, "Giorgi Guliashvili": { "player_id": 965257, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 179, "market_value": 3400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0001, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 81.3629, "minutes": 25, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.2764, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 13233691, "match_date": "2025-11-18", "home_team": "Bulgaria", "away_team": "Georgia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Georgia", "opponent": "Bulgaria", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 17049, "combined_rank_score": 1515.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 1093.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.2333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 1938.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.3629, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Giorgi Guliashvili", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Pavel Bucha", "ranking": 17044 }, { "player_name": "Ibrokhim Ganikhonov", "ranking": 17045 }, { "player_name": "Adrián Parra", "ranking": 17046 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Capicchioni", "ranking": 17047 }, { "player_name": "Milan Roganović", "ranking": 17048 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Or Blorian", "ranking": 17050 }, { "player_name": "Juan Angulo", "ranking": 17051 }, { "player_name": "Marius Wolf", "ranking": 17052 }, { "player_name": "Mitchel Bakker", "ranking": 17053 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Zenón", "ranking": 17054 } ] } } } }, "substitutes": { "Yassir Zabiri": { "player_id": 1606013, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 21, "height": 182, "market_value": 9800000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0001, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 92.5193, "minutes": 26, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.5728, "dispossessed": 1.006, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 2, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.574, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.62, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421061, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Racing Club", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 21, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0107, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14167989, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Olympique Lyonnais", "away_team": "Stade Rennais", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Stade Rennais", "opponent": "Olympique Lyonnais", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 272, "combined_rank_score": 127.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 79.0, "fifa_overall": 86.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.5193, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Yassir Zabiri", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Xavi Simons", "ranking": 267 }, { "player_name": "Anthony Gordon", "ranking": 268 }, { "player_name": "Mathew Ryan", "ranking": 269 }, { "player_name": "Gerson", "ranking": 270 }, { "player_name": "Christian Eriksen", "ranking": 271 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Nuno Mendes", "ranking": 273 }, { "player_name": "Aleksandar Mitrović", "ranking": 274 }, { "player_name": "N'Golo Kanté", "ranking": 275 }, { "player_name": "Luca Reggiani", "ranking": 276 }, { "player_name": "Facundo Torres", "ranking": 277 } ] } } }, "Giorgi Guliashvili": { "player_id": 965257, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 179, "market_value": 3400000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0001, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 81.3629, "minutes": 25, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.2764, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 3, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.56, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.31, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.434, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 13233691, "match_date": "2025-11-18", "home_team": "Bulgaria", "away_team": "Georgia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Georgia", "opponent": "Bulgaria", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 17049, "combined_rank_score": 1515.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 1093.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.2333, "sofascore_appearances": 3.0, "fifa_rank": 1938.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.3629, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Giorgi Guliashvili", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Pavel Bucha", "ranking": 17044 }, { "player_name": "Ibrokhim Ganikhonov", "ranking": 17045 }, { "player_name": "Adrián Parra", "ranking": 17046 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Capicchioni", "ranking": 17047 }, { "player_name": "Milan Roganović", "ranking": 17048 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Or Blorian", "ranking": 17050 }, { "player_name": "Juan Angulo", "ranking": 17051 }, { "player_name": "Marius Wolf", "ranking": 17052 }, { "player_name": "Mitchel Bakker", "ranking": 17053 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Zenón", "ranking": 17054 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.19, "expected_assists": 0.83, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 353, "interceptions": 11, "tackles": 20, "avg_rating": 58.77, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.7, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Martín Satriano", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 10600000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.529, "defenders": [ "Manu Hernando", "Jorge Salinas" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.461, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.255, "xg_contribution": 0.1664, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Manu Hernando", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.745 }, { "player": "Jorge Salinas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.745 } ], "duel_analysis": "Martín Satriano (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Manu Hernando and Jorge Salinas in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 25%. Projected xG contribution: 0.166 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Enes Ünal", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 6800000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.484, "defenders": [ "Iñigo Vicente", "Sergio Martinez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.453, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.262, "xg_contribution": 0.0022, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iñigo Vicente", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 6600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.738 }, { "player": "Sergio Martinez", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.738 } ], "duel_analysis": "Enes Ünal (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Iñigo Vicente and Sergio Martinez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 26%. Projected xG contribution: 0.002 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ramón Terrats", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "Alvaro Mantilla" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.415, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.399, "xg_contribution": 0.0459, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alvaro Mantilla", "role": "RB", "market_value": 1200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.601 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ramón Terrats (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Alvaro Mantilla in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.046 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Johan Mojica", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 1400000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.417, "defenders": [ "Pablo Ramón" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.419, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.395, "xg_contribution": 0.066, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Ramón", "role": "LB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.605 } ], "duel_analysis": "Johan Mojica (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Pablo Ramón in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.066 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Mario Martín", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 10700000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.531, "defenders": [ "Iñigo Vicente" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.482, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.468, "xg_contribution": 0.1242, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iñigo Vicente", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 6600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.532 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mario Martín (CM) is evenly matched against Iñigo Vicente in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Projected xG contribution: 0.124 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Andrés Martín", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 8199999, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.501, "defenders": [ "Zaid Romero" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.43, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.396, "xg_contribution": 0.5745, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Zaid Romero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.604 } ], "duel_analysis": "Andrés Martín (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Zaid Romero in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.574 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Gustavo Puerta", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 19200000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.623, "defenders": [ "Mario Martín" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.531, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.438, "xg_contribution": 0.0836, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mario Martín", "role": "CM", "market_value": 10700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.562 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gustavo Puerta (CAM) is evenly matched against Mario Martín in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.084 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Sergio Canales", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "Zaid Romero" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.43, "duel_zone": "RW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.364, "xg_contribution": 0.1253, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Zaid Romero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.636 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sergio Canales (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Zaid Romero in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. Projected xG contribution: 0.125 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Asier Villalibre", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2100000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.426, "defenders": [ "Zaid Romero", "Abdel Abqar" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.436, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1124, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Zaid Romero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Abdel Abqar", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Asier Villalibre (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Zaid Romero and Abdel Abqar in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.112 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.492, "away_midfield_power": 0.544, "home_creative_power": 0.418, "away_creative_power": 0.46, "home_defensive_power": 0.418, "away_defensive_power": 0.454, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.475, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Orel Mangala", "Mario Martín", "Ramón Terrats" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Iñigo Vicente", "Andrés Martín", "Sergio Martinez", "Gustavo Puerta", "Sergio Canales" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.3, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.7, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.0, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.3, "home_throughball_threat": 1.9, "away_throughball_threat": 2.0, "key_personal_duel": "Mario Martín vs Gustavo Puerta", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.992, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.009 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-1-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-1-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.191, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "LW vs CB", "RW vs CB" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Martín Satriano": { "opponents": [ "Manu Hernando", "Jorge Salinas" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Enes Ünal": { "opponents": [ "Iñigo Vicente", "Sergio Martinez" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ramón Terrats": { "opponents": [ "Alvaro Mantilla", "Sergio Martinez" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Johan Mojica": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Ramón" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Mario Martín": { "opponents": [ "Iñigo Vicente", "Gustavo Puerta", "Andrés Martín" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Zaid Romero": { "opponents": [ "Andrés Martín", "Sergio Canales", "Asier Villalibre" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Abdel Abqar": { "opponents": [ "Asier Villalibre" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Orel Mangala": { "opponents": [ "Iñigo Vicente", "Sergio Canales" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "David Soria": { "opponents": [ "Asier Villalibre", "Gustavo Puerta" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Andrés García": { "opponents": [ "Asier Villalibre" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Djené": { "opponents": [ "Asier Villalibre" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Manu Hernando": { "opponents": [ "Martín Satriano" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jorge Salinas": { "opponents": [ "Martín Satriano" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Iñigo Vicente": { "opponents": [ "Enes Ünal", "Mario Martín", "Orel Mangala" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Sergio Martinez": { "opponents": [ "Enes Ünal", "Ramón Terrats" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Double Pivot — Tight Space Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alvaro Mantilla": { "opponents": [ "Ramón Terrats" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pablo Ramón": { "opponents": [ "Johan Mojica" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Andrés Martín": { "opponents": [ "Zaid Romero", "Mario Martín" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gustavo Puerta": { "opponents": [ "Mario Martín" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Sergio Canales": { "opponents": [ "Zaid Romero", "Orel Mangala" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Asier Villalibre": { "opponents": [ "Zaid Romero", "Abdel Abqar" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Julen Agirrezabala": { "opponents": [ "Martín Satriano", "Enes Ünal" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Mario Martín vs Gustavo Puerta will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.40, Away: 0.90. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: LW vs CB.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9768, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0122, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.128, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.036, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0057, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9912, "home_midfield_factor": 0.992, "away_midfield_factor": 1.009, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.4678, "away_avg_quality": 0.4652, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0026, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.0186, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.0459, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.0257, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0011, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0795, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0121, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.837, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.191, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.8365, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.1911, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.02, "final_away_lambda": 1.191 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 20, "opponent_position": 5, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9222, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 0.836, "form_multiplier": 0.954, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 1.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 5, "opponent_position": 20, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.028, "attack_index": 0.836, "defense_concede_index": 1.254, "form_multiplier": 1.046, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.5, "team_ppg": 1.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-08-23T13:31:42Z" }