{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Atl. Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260823", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-3-1-2", "away_formation": "4-4-2" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1225, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": null, "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2575, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1225 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1141 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0932 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0883 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0782 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0759, "0-1": 0.0782, "0-2": 0.0418, "0-3": 0.0147, "0-4": 0.0039, "0-5": 0.0008, "1-0": 0.1141, "1-1": 0.1225, "1-2": 0.0641, "1-3": 0.0226, "1-4": 0.006, "1-5": 0.0013, "2-0": 0.0883, "2-1": 0.0932, "2-2": 0.0492, "2-3": 0.0173, "2-4": 0.0046, "2-5": 0.001, "3-0": 0.0452, "3-1": 0.0477, "3-2": 0.0252, "3-3": 0.0089, "3-4": 0.0023, "4-0": 0.0173, "4-1": 0.0183, "4-2": 0.0097, "4-3": 0.0034, "4-4": 0.0009, "5-0": 0.0053, "5-1": 0.0056, "5-2": 0.003, "5-3": 0.001, "6-0": 0.0014, "6-1": 0.0014, "6-2": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4826, "draw": 0.2575, "away_win": 0.26 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4793, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5207, "btts_yes": 0.5126, "btts_no": 0.4874, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3478, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2155 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 90.73, "MCR": 89.16, "ATR": 90.95, "GK": 95.21 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 83.5, "MCR": 85.16, "ATR": 85.58, "GK": 83.2 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Atl. Madrid vs Villarreal. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 3 home and 6 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Morten Hjulmand, Georges Mikautadze", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-3-1-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Pablo Barrios vs Alberto Moleiro will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.45, Away: 1.31. Home danger zone: CAM vs CM. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.74, "home_lambda": 1.535, "away_lambda": 1.056 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4826, "draw": 0.2575, "away_win": 0.26 }, "favorite": "Atl. Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4826, "fair_spread": 0.479, "fair_total": 2.591, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Atl. Madrid", "estimate": 1.535, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Villarreal", "estimate": 1.056, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4793, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5126, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Atl. Madrid", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3478, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Villarreal", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2155, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Robin Le Normand (Atl. Madrid)", "estimate": 0.5271, "probability": 0.1343, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Georges Mikautadze (Villarreal)", "estimate": 0.3282, "probability": 0.4377, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Alejandro Grimaldo (Atl. Madrid)", "estimate": 0.3853, "probability": 0.4258, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Alberto Moleiro (Villarreal)", "estimate": 0.2203, "probability": 0.2855, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.591, "expected_total_shots": 23, "expected_total_passes": 870, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.3, "possession_home_pct": 50.8, "possession_away_pct": 49.2, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Atl. Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4826, "script": "Atl. Madrid is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.48 goals and fair total 2.59.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Villarreal must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Atl. Madrid lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Villarreal chance creation leans on Georges Mikautadze against Robin Le Normand, Dávid Hancko in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Atl. Madrid: starters carry the main goal usage through Morten Hjulmand; bench watchlist: Julián Alvarez, Alex Baena, Nicolás González.", "Villarreal: starters carry the main goal usage through Georges Mikautadze; bench watchlist: Tani Oluwaseyi, Alfon González.", "Assist usage should flow through Alejandro Grimaldo, Alberto Moleiro; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Atl. Madrid tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.30 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Villarreal is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Atl. Madrid.", "Villarreal wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Atl. Madrid": { "formation": "4-3-1-2", "players": { "Ademola Lookman": { "player_id": 824200, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 174, "market_value": 44000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.349, "goal_rate": 0.015, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0523, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 90.9459, "minutes": 81, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 20, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 18, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 14, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 36, "possession_lost": 9.5382, "dispossessed": 2.1801, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 1, "xgot": 0.8503, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 12, "total_progression": 41, "progressive_carries": 2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.411, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Alberto Moleiro", "opponent_faced": "Alberto Moleiro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2644, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0345, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421055, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1539, "expected_assists": 0.0102, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083735, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 61, "rating": 6.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0213, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 18, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083661, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Girona FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Girona FC", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 7.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8642, "expected_assists": 0.0829, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083634, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Osasuna", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Osasuna", "stats": { "minutes": 82, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7884, "expected_assists": 0.095, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632635, "match_date": "2026-05-05", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 57, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0321, "expected_assists": 0.0087, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632633, "match_date": "2026-04-29", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Arsenal", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.7363, "expected_assists": 0.1346, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632089, "match_date": "2026-04-14", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 7.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8318, "expected_assists": 0.273, 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"uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631370, "match_date": "2026-03-18", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 63, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0421, "expected_assists": 0.126, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 21, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631356, "match_date": "2026-03-10", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": 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"projected_match_rating": 6.9459, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ademola Lookman", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Rúben Macedo", "ranking": 4416 }, { "player_name": "Roman Salenko", "ranking": 4417 }, { "player_name": "Brian Nicolas Ferreyra", "ranking": 4418 }, { "player_name": "Hinata Kida", "ranking": 4419 }, { "player_name": "Koke", "ranking": 4420 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Sebastián Gallegos", "ranking": 4422 }, { "player_name": "Joaquinete", "ranking": 4423 }, { "player_name": "Santiago Ramírez", "ranking": 4424 }, { "player_name": "Bence Kiss", "ranking": 4425 }, { "player_name": "Marek Havlík", "ranking": 4426 } ] } } }, "Giuliano Simeone": { "player_id": 1099352, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 20, "height": 173, "market_value": 44000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0351, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "rating": 87.9777, "minutes": 75, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 22, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 5, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 9, "total_opp_half_passes": 17, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 42, "possession_lost": 8.7206, "dispossessed": 1.7441, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 3, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 2, "tackles": 3, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 2, "xgot": 0.109, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 25, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.407, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Alberto Moleiro", "opponent_faced": "Alberto Moleiro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.043, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0486, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421055, "match_date": "2026-08-19", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Málaga CF", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Málaga CF", "stats": { "minutes": 33, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0135, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 4, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_type": "played", 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"home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0102, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 7, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 16301, "combined_rank_score": 1123.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 960.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.56, "sofascore_appearances": 20.0, "fifa_rank": 1287.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.2176, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Alfon González", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ignacio Mesías", "ranking": 16296 }, { "player_name": "Davy Roef", "ranking": 16297 }, { "player_name": "Rasmus Højlund", "ranking": 16298 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "ranking": 16299 }, { "player_name": "Gorka Guruzeta", "ranking": 16300 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Fredrik André Bjørkan", "ranking": 16302 }, { "player_name": "Rashid Abubakar", "ranking": 16303 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Escobar", "ranking": 16304 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Londoño", "ranking": 16305 }, { "player_name": "Moisés González", "ranking": 16306 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.06, "expected_assists": 1.03, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 7, "total_passes": 408, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 13, "avg_rating": 84.49, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.2, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.9 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Rodrigo Mendoza", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Renato Veiga", "Juan Foyth" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.608, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.189, "xg_contribution": 0.0617, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Renato Veiga", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.811 }, { "player": "Juan Foyth", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.811 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rodrigo Mendoza (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Renato Veiga and Juan Foyth in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. Projected xG contribution: 0.062 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ademola Lookman", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Alberto Moleiro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.837, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.411, "xg_contribution": 0.2402, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "role": "CM", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.589 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ademola Lookman (CAM) faces tough defensive resistance against Alberto Moleiro in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Projected xG contribution: 0.240 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Giuliano Simeone", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Alberto Moleiro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.837, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.407, "xg_contribution": 0.1508, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "role": "CM", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.593 } ], "duel_analysis": "Giuliano Simeone (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Alberto Moleiro in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Projected xG contribution: 0.151 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Pape Gueye", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 39000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.775, "defenders": [ "Alejandro Grimaldo" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.625, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.588, "xg_contribution": 0.4805, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alejandro Grimaldo", "role": "RB", "market_value": 19400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.412 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pape Gueye (LM) is slightly favored against Alejandro Grimaldo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 59%. The quality gap is significant (€39M vs €19M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.480 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Alberto Moleiro", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 54000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.837, "defenders": [ "Giuliano Simeone" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.8, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.433, "xg_contribution": 0.1617, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Giuliano Simeone", "role": "CM", "market_value": 44000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.567 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alberto Moleiro (CM) is evenly matched against Giuliano Simeone in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.162 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Santi Comesaña", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 8400000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.503, "defenders": [ "Giuliano Simeone" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.8, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.342, "xg_contribution": 0.0994, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Giuliano Simeone", "role": "CM", "market_value": 44000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.658 } ], "duel_analysis": "Santi Comesaña (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Giuliano Simeone in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€8M vs €44M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.099 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Georges Mikautadze", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 32000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.732, "defenders": [ "Robin Le Normand", "Dávid Hancko" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.69, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.4891, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Robin Le Normand", "role": "CB", "market_value": 19100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Dávid Hancko", "role": "CB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Georges Mikautadze (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Robin Le Normand and Dávid Hancko in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.489 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ayoze Pérez", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 5400000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.467, "defenders": [ "Robin Le Normand", "Dávid Hancko" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.69, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0735, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Robin Le Normand", "role": "CB", "market_value": 19100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Dávid Hancko", "role": "CB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ayoze Pérez (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Robin Le Normand and Dávid Hancko in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €28M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.073 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Nicolas Pépé", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 6600000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.482, "defenders": [ "Marcos Llorente" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.384, "xg_contribution": 0.0023, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marcos Llorente", "role": "LB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.616 } ], "duel_analysis": "Nicolas Pépé (RM) faces tough defensive resistance against Marcos Llorente in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.002 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.774, "away_midfield_power": 0.705, "home_creative_power": 0.551, "away_creative_power": 0.734, "home_defensive_power": 0.755, "away_defensive_power": 0.659, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.523, "home_midfield_count": 6, "away_midfield_count": 3, "home_midfield_players": [ "Giuliano Simeone", "Rodrigo Mendoza", "Morten Hjulmand", "Koke", "Pablo Barrios", "Alejandro Grimaldo" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Alberto Moleiro", "Santi Comesaña", "Pape Gueye" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.8, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.2, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.4, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.9, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.8, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.9, "home_throughball_threat": 2.3, "away_throughball_threat": 2.8, "key_personal_duel": "Pablo Barrios vs Alberto Moleiro", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.999, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.994 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-3-1-2", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-3-1-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.535, "away_lambda": 1.056, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "CAM vs CM", "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Rodrigo Mendoza": { "opponents": [ "Renato Veiga", "Juan Foyth", "Santi Comesaña" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ademola Lookman": { "opponents": [ "Alberto Moleiro" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Giuliano Simeone": { "opponents": [ "Alberto Moleiro", "Santi Comesaña" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alejandro Grimaldo": { "opponents": [ "Pape Gueye", "Alberto Moleiro" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Robin Le Normand": { "opponents": [ "Georges Mikautadze", "Ayoze Pérez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dávid Hancko": { "opponents": [ "Georges Mikautadze", "Ayoze Pérez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Marcos Llorente": { "opponents": [ "Nicolas Pépé" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Morten Hjulmand": { "opponents": [ "Santi Comesaña" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Pablo Barrios": { "opponents": [ "Pape Gueye" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Koke": { "opponents": [ "Pape Gueye" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Jan Oblak": { "opponents": [ "Nicolas Pépé", "Georges Mikautadze" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Renato Veiga": { "opponents": [ "Rodrigo Mendoza" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Juan Foyth": { "opponents": [ "Rodrigo Mendoza" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alberto Moleiro": { "opponents": [ "Ademola Lookman", "Giuliano Simeone", "Alejandro Grimaldo" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pape Gueye": { "opponents": [ "Alejandro Grimaldo", "Pablo Barrios", "Koke" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Santi Comesaña": { "opponents": [ "Giuliano Simeone", "Morten Hjulmand", "Rodrigo Mendoza" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Georges Mikautadze": { "opponents": [ "Robin Le Normand", "Dávid Hancko" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ayoze Pérez": { "opponents": [ "Robin Le Normand", "Dávid Hancko" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Nicolas Pépé": { "opponents": [ "Marcos Llorente" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Luiz Júnior": { "opponents": [ "Ademola Lookman", "Pablo Barrios" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Carlos Romero": { "opponents": [ "Ademola Lookman" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Santiago Mouriño": { "opponents": [ "Ademola Lookman" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Pablo Barrios vs Alberto Moleiro will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.45, Away: 1.31. Home danger zone: CAM vs CM. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9644, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9481, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.087, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1424, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9367, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9359, "home_midfield_factor": 0.999, "away_midfield_factor": 0.994, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.7014, "away_avg_quality": 0.6306, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0708, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.3247, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.2525, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.4795, "elite_count_gap": 3, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1503, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.3306, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.2104, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0776, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0413, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.535, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.056, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.1806, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.0063, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.535, "final_away_lambda": 1.056 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 3, "opponent_position": 6, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.8801, "attack_index": 0.836, "defense_concede_index": 0.836, "form_multiplier": 1.058, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.0, "team_ppg": 3.0, "opponent_ppg": 1.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 6, "opponent_position": 3, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9198, "attack_index": 0.836, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 0.942, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 1.0, "opponent_ppg": 3.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-08-23T13:31:23Z" }