{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Chelsea", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260824", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-2", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 2, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1302, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Chelsea", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.1586, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.1302 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1079 }, { "score": "0-3", "probability": 0.1045 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0905 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0755 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0452, "0-1": 0.1079, "0-2": 0.1302, "0-3": 0.1045, "0-4": 0.0629, "0-5": 0.0303, "0-6": 0.0122, "0-7": 0.0042, "0-8": 0.0013, "1-0": 0.031, "1-1": 0.0755, "1-2": 0.0905, "1-3": 0.0727, "1-4": 0.0437, "1-5": 0.0211, "1-6": 0.0085, "1-7": 0.0029, "1-8": 0.0009, "2-0": 0.0108, "2-1": 0.0261, "2-2": 0.0315, "2-3": 0.0252, "2-4": 0.0152, "2-5": 0.0073, "2-6": 0.0029, "2-7": 0.001, "3-0": 0.0025, "3-1": 0.0061, "3-2": 0.0073, "3-3": 0.0058, "3-4": 0.0035, "3-5": 0.0017, "3-6": 0.0007, "4-1": 0.0011, "4-2": 0.0013, "4-3": 0.001, "4-4": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.0882, "draw": 0.1586, "away_win": 0.7532 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5994, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4006, "btts_yes": 0.4561, "btts_no": 0.5439, "home_clean_sheet": 0.09, "away_clean_sheet": 0.4991 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 84.7, "MCR": 83.19, "ATR": 85.55, "GK": 86.91 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 87.69, "MCR": 87.6, "ATR": 86.19, "GK": 84.66 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Fulham vs Chelsea. Most likely scoreline: 0-2. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Enzo Fernández, João Pedro", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Oscar Bobb vs Morgan Rogers). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.53, Away: 0.76. Home danger zone: LW vs CB. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle." }, "confidence": 0.84, "home_lambda": 0.695, "away_lambda": 2.408 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.0882, "draw": 0.1586, "away_win": 0.7532 }, "favorite": "Chelsea", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7532, "fair_spread": -1.713, "fair_total": 3.103, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Fulham", "estimate": 0.695, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Chelsea", "estimate": 2.408, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5994, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4561, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Fulham", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.09, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Chelsea", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4991, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Alex Iwobi (Fulham)", "estimate": 0.273, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "João Pedro (Chelsea)", "estimate": 0.7069, "probability": 0.4383, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Timothy Castagne (Fulham)", "estimate": 0.1497, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Moisés Caicedo (Chelsea)", "estimate": 0.2655, "probability": 0.2322, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 3.103, "expected_total_shots": 24, "expected_total_passes": 831, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.5, "possession_home_pct": 47.9, "possession_away_pct": 52.1, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Chelsea", "favorite_win_probability": 0.7532, "script": "Chelsea is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread -1.71 goals and fair total 3.10.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Fulham must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Chelsea lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Chelsea chance creation leans on João Pedro against Oscar Bobb, Jorge Cuenca in Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Fulham: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Kevin, Harry Wilson, Rodrigo Muniz.", "Chelsea: starters carry the main goal usage through Enzo Fernández, João Pedro; bench watchlist: Nicolas Jackson, Alejandro Garnacho.", "Assist usage should flow through Moisés Caicedo; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Chelsea tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.55 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Fulham is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Chelsea.", "Fulham wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Fulham": { "formation": "4-2-3-1", "players": { "Gonzalo García": { "player_id": 1402716, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 182, "market_value": 31000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0041, "goal_rate": 0.3631, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0816, "key_pass": 1, "rating": 85.551, "minutes": 64, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 12, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 19, "possession_lost": 3.5547, "dispossessed": 1.0675, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 3, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.5231, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 18, "progressive_carries": 2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Levi Colwill, Maxence Lacroix", "opponent_faced": "Levi Colwill, Maxence Lacroix", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14083731, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Athletic Club", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 7.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.4699, "expected_assists": 0.0321, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083702, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0049, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083649, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Real Madrid", "away_team": "Real Oviedo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Madrid", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 69, "rating": 8.1, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1444, "expected_assists": 0.2793, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 3, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15452752, "match_date": "2026-02-25", "home_team": "Real 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"projected_match_rating": 7.551, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Gonzalo García", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Atiya Waraga", "ranking": 15754 }, { "player_name": "Kyrian Nwoko", "ranking": 15755 }, { "player_name": "Romualdas Jansonas", "ranking": 15756 }, { "player_name": "Kepa", "ranking": 15757 }, { "player_name": "Santi Comesaña", "ranking": 15758 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Chrislain Matsima", "ranking": 15760 }, { "player_name": "Youssouf Ndayishimiye", "ranking": 15761 }, { "player_name": "Philipp Köhn", "ranking": 15762 }, { "player_name": "Manor Solomon", "ranking": 15763 }, { "player_name": "Matvey Safonov", "ranking": 15764 } ] } } }, "Joshua King": { "player_id": 1546231, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 24, "height": 172, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0294, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "rating": 80.9029, "minutes": 19, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 2, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 2, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 9, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 18, "possession_lost": 4.223, "dispossessed": 1.0558, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.3484, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 47, "progressive_carries": 2, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "crosses_attempted": 2.3, "duel_win_rate": 0.291, "pressing_faced": "ULTRA_HIGH", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Levi Colwill", "opponent_faced": "Levi Colwill", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023965, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0943, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023958, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 23, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0199, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 16, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023948, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0643, "expected_assists": 0.0288, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 7, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 1, 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Izquierdoz", "ranking": 18076 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Martín Satriano", "ranking": 18078 }, { "player_name": "Jason Knight", "ranking": 18079 }, { "player_name": "Thiago Fernández", "ranking": 18080 }, { "player_name": "Benito Raman", "ranking": 18081 }, { "player_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "ranking": 18082 } ] } } }, "Oscar Bobb": { "player_id": 1065216, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 174, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0823, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "rating": 78.9808, "minutes": 38, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 3, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 15, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 13, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 26, "possession_lost": 6.4976, "dispossessed": 1.3228, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 2, "clearances": 1, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 2, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 37, "progressive_carries": 1, "opponent_faced": "João Pedro, Moisés Caicedo, Enzo Fernández", "matchup_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 12813006, "match_date": "2026-07-05", "home_team": "Brazil", "away_team": "Norway", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Norway", "opponent": "Brazil", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 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7.3113, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nicolas Jackson", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Brian Quinteros", "ranking": 10007 }, { "player_name": "Benjamin Cardenas", "ranking": 10008 }, { "player_name": "Dean Tenorio", "ranking": 10009 }, { "player_name": "Reynaldo Polo", "ranking": 10010 }, { "player_name": "Christian Nørgaard", "ranking": 10011 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Yerlin Quinonez", "ranking": 10013 }, { "player_name": "Juan Pablo Freytes", "ranking": 10014 }, { "player_name": "Timi Max Elšnik", "ranking": 10015 }, { "player_name": "Arthur Gabriel", "ranking": 10016 }, { "player_name": "Ivan Kalyuzhnyi", "ranking": 10017 } ] } } }, "Alejandro Garnacho": { "player_id": 1135873, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 49, "height": 180, "market_value": 37000000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0229, "goal_rate": 0.0004, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 83.9987, "minutes": 27, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 3, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 6, "possession_lost": 1.8076, "dispossessed": 1.0792, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1753, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 7, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.618, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.59, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.752, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": -1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Brighton", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "home_score_current": 4.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brighton", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16087727, "match_date": "2026-05-19", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631367, "match_date": "2026-03-17", "home_team": "Chelsea", "away_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Paris Saint-Germain", "stats": { "minutes": 31, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2609, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 4, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631341, "match_date": "2026-03-11", "home_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "away_team": "Chelsea", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Chelsea", "opponent": "Paris Saint-Germain", "stats": { "minutes": 2, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 11886396, "match_date": "2024-06-30", "home_team": "Argentina", "away_team": "Peru", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Argentina", "opponent": "Peru", "stats": { "minutes": 66, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0944, "expected_assists": 0.004, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 16, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 16384, "combined_rank_score": 974.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 478.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 1470.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9987, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Alejandro Garnacho", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Santiago Sosa", "ranking": 16379 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Mora", "ranking": 16380 }, { "player_name": "Romain Del Castillo", "ranking": 16381 }, { "player_name": "Ismael Doukouré", "ranking": 16382 }, { "player_name": "Zeki Çelik", "ranking": 16383 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Leonardo Spinazzola", "ranking": 16385 }, { "player_name": "Vinícius Souza", "ranking": 16386 }, { "player_name": "Geovany Quenda", "ranking": 16387 }, { "player_name": "Jordan Lauton", "ranking": 16388 }, { "player_name": "Iñaki Peña", "ranking": 16389 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 2, "expected_goals": 2.41, "expected_assists": 1.1, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 9, "total_passes": 449, "interceptions": 12, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 87.23, "possession_estimated_pct": 52.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.3 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Joshua King", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Levi Colwill" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.84, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.291, "xg_contribution": 0.2069, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Levi Colwill", "role": "CB", "market_value": 55000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.709 } ], "duel_analysis": "Joshua King (LW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Levi Colwill in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €55M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.207 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "César Palacios", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 6800000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.484, "defenders": [ "Moisés Caicedo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.895, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.247, "xg_contribution": 0.1283, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Moisés Caicedo", "role": "CM", "market_value": 104000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.4, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.753 } ], "duel_analysis": "César Palacios (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Moisés Caicedo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 25%. The quality gap is significant (€7M vs €104M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.128 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Alex Iwobi", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Levi Colwill" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.84, "duel_zone": "RW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.314, "xg_contribution": 0.1904, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Levi Colwill", "role": "CB", "market_value": 55000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.686 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alex Iwobi (RW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Levi Colwill in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €55M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.190 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Gonzalo García", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Levi Colwill", "Maxence Lacroix" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.838, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0034, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Levi Colwill", "role": "CB", "market_value": 55000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Maxence Lacroix", "role": "CB", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gonzalo García (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Levi Colwill and Maxence Lacroix in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€31M vs €54M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.003 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Cole Palmer", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 92000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.89, "defenders": [ "Jorge Cuenca", "Calvin Bassey" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.608, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.317, "xg_contribution": 0.0738, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jorge Cuenca", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.683 }, { "player": "Calvin Bassey", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.683 } ], "duel_analysis": "Cole Palmer (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jorge Cuenca and Calvin Bassey in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 32%. The quality gap is significant (€92M vs €19M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.074 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "João Pedro", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 74000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.876, "defenders": [ "Oscar Bobb", "Jorge Cuenca" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.6, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.394, "xg_contribution": 0.2594, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Oscar Bobb", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.606 }, { "player": "Jorge Cuenca", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.606 } ], "duel_analysis": "João Pedro (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Oscar Bobb and Jorge Cuenca in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 39%. The quality gap is significant (€74M vs €18M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.259 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Morgan Rogers", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 105000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.895, "defenders": [ "Timothy Castagne" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.494, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.588, "xg_contribution": 0.0642, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 3.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Timothy Castagne", "role": "RB", "market_value": 7600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.4, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.412 } ], "duel_analysis": "Morgan Rogers (LWB) is slightly favored against Timothy Castagne in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 59%. The quality gap is significant (€105M vs €8M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.064 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Marco Palestra", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 36000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.758, "defenders": [ "Antonee Robinson" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.452, "xg_contribution": 0.1598, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Antonee Robinson", "role": "LB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.548 } ], "duel_analysis": "Marco Palestra (RWB) is evenly matched against Antonee Robinson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Projected xG contribution: 0.160 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Moisés Caicedo", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 104000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.895, "defenders": [ "Oscar Bobb" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.694, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.556, "xg_contribution": 0.2003, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Oscar Bobb", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.444 } ], "duel_analysis": "Moisés Caicedo (CM) is slightly favored against Oscar Bobb in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 56%. The quality gap is significant (€104M vs €27M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.200 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.688, "away_midfield_power": 0.938, "home_creative_power": 0.542, "away_creative_power": 0.912, "home_defensive_power": 0.542, "away_defensive_power": 0.683, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.423, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 6, "home_midfield_players": [ "Joshua King", "Oscar Bobb", "Sander Berge", "Alex Iwobi", "César Palacios" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Morgan Rogers", "Cole Palmer", "Marco Palestra", "Moisés Caicedo", "Enzo Fernández", "Pedro Neto" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 47.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 52.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.2, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.3, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.8, "away_key_passes_projected": 7.0, "home_throughball_threat": 2.2, "away_throughball_threat": 3.3, "key_personal_duel": "Oscar Bobb vs Morgan Rogers", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.975, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.035 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-2-3-1", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 0.695, "away_lambda": 2.408, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "LW vs CB", "RW vs CB" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Joshua King": { "opponents": [ "Levi Colwill", "Marco Palestra" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "César Palacios": { "opponents": [ "Moisés Caicedo", "Cole Palmer" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alex Iwobi": { "opponents": [ "Levi Colwill", "Pedro Neto" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gonzalo García": { "opponents": [ "Levi Colwill", "Maxence Lacroix" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jorge Cuenca": { "opponents": [ "Cole Palmer", "João Pedro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Calvin Bassey": { "opponents": [ "Cole Palmer" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Oscar Bobb": { "opponents": [ "João Pedro", "Moisés Caicedo", "Enzo Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Timothy Castagne": { "opponents": [ "Morgan Rogers" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Antonee Robinson": { "opponents": [ "Marco Palestra" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Sander Berge": { "opponents": [ "Morgan Rogers" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Bernd Leno": { "opponents": [ "João Pedro", "Enzo Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Levi Colwill": { "opponents": [ "Joshua King", "Alex Iwobi", "Gonzalo García" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Moisés Caicedo": { "opponents": [ "César Palacios", "Oscar Bobb" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Maxence Lacroix": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo García" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Cole Palmer": { "opponents": [ "Jorge Cuenca", "Calvin Bassey", "César Palacios" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "João Pedro": { "opponents": [ "Oscar Bobb", "Jorge Cuenca" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Morgan Rogers": { "opponents": [ "Timothy Castagne", "Sander Berge" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Marco Palestra": { "opponents": [ "Antonee Robinson", "Joshua King" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Enzo Fernández": { "opponents": [ "Oscar Bobb" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Pedro Neto": { "opponents": [ "Alex Iwobi" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Robert Sánchez": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo García", "Sander Berge" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Reece James": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo García" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Oscar Bobb vs Morgan Rogers). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.53, Away: 0.76. Home danger zone: LW vs CB. Away danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9317, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.998, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0607, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.172, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.872, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9478, "home_midfield_factor": 0.975, "away_midfield_factor": 1.035, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6294, "away_avg_quality": 0.8589, "avg_quality_gap": -0.2295, "squad_value_gap_log": -1.2375, "top5_value_gap_log": -1.174, "attack_value_gap_log": -1.3602, "elite_count_gap": -9, "combined_quality_gap": -0.4943, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.95, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.6, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0739, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1107, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.4943, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1286, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9606, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 0.724, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 2.134, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.7239, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 2.1337, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 0.695, "final_away_lambda": 2.408 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 10, "opponent_position": 6, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 6, "opponent_position": 10, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-08-24T13:31:09Z" }