{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Málaga", "away_team": "Deportivo", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260824", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-1-4-1", "away_formation": "3-4-1-2" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1644, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Málaga", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.3268, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1644 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1639 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1335 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1281 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0845 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1639, "0-1": 0.1281, "0-2": 0.0516, "0-3": 0.0137, "0-4": 0.0027, "1-0": 0.1644, "1-1": 0.1335, "1-2": 0.0526, "1-3": 0.014, "1-4": 0.0028, "2-0": 0.0845, "2-1": 0.0674, "2-2": 0.0268, "2-3": 0.0071, "2-4": 0.0014, "3-0": 0.0287, "3-1": 0.0229, "3-2": 0.0091, "3-3": 0.0024, "4-0": 0.0073, "4-1": 0.0058, "4-2": 0.0023, "4-3": 0.0006, "5-0": 0.0015, "5-1": 0.0012 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3972, "draw": 0.3268, "away_win": 0.276 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.2739, "under_2_5_goals": 0.7261, "btts_yes": 0.3526, "btts_no": 0.6474, "home_clean_sheet": 0.4507, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3606 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 40.06, "MCR": 48.45, "ATR": 73.09, "GK": 81.62 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 75.91, "MCR": 75.99, "ATR": 55.71, "GK": 83.63 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Málaga vs Deportivo. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 7 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): David Larrubia", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-1-4-1 and 3-4-1-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — David Larrubia vs Lorenzo Amatucci will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.49, Away: 0.84. Home danger zone: RM vs CB. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.67, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 0.797 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3972, "draw": 0.3268, "away_win": 0.276 }, "favorite": "Málaga", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3972, "fair_spread": 0.223, "fair_total": 1.817, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Málaga", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Deportivo", "estimate": 0.797, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.2739, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3526, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Málaga", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4507, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Deportivo", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "David Larrubia (Málaga)", "estimate": 0.4799, "probability": 0.3935, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Deportivo)", "estimate": 0.3018, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Dani Lorenzo (Málaga)", "estimate": 0.0772, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Jonathan Asp Jensen (Deportivo)", "estimate": 0.0492, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 1.817, "expected_total_shots": 22, "expected_total_passes": 767, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.5, "possession_home_pct": 50.3, "possession_away_pct": 49.7, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Málaga", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3972, "script": "Málaga is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.22 goals and fair total 1.82.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 11 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Deportivo must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Málaga lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Deportivo chance creation leans on Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang against Einar Galilea, Ángel Recio in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Málaga: starters carry the main goal usage through David Larrubia; bench watchlist: Adrián Niño, Julen Lobete.", "Deportivo: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Yeremay Hernández, David Mella, Zakaria Eddahchouri.", "Assist usage should flow through the projected key-pass leaders; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Málaga tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 11 total first-half shots, and 0.91 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Deportivo is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Málaga.", "Deportivo wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Málaga": { "formation": "4-1-4-1", "players": { "Chupete": { "player_id": 1913386, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 185, "market_value": 10700000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1501, "goal_rate": 0.0004, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0551, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 73.095, "minutes": 91, "total_shots": 2, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 11, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 13, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 31, "possession_lost": 13.1195, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 9, "aerial_lost": 4, "total_contest": 3, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 3, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 10, "total_progression": 31, "progressive_carries": 1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.259, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Bright Ede, Ximo Navarro", "opponent_faced": "Bright Ede, Ximo Navarro", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, 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"player_name": "Blaž Kramer", "ranking": 25081 }, { "player_name": "Tim Schreiber", "ranking": 25082 }, { "player_name": "Luca Klimowicz", "ranking": 25083 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Herrera", "ranking": 25084 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Manu Lama", "ranking": 25086 }, { "player_name": "Alessandro Gabrielloni", "ranking": 25087 }, { "player_name": "Ali Emre Yanar", "ranking": 25088 }, { "player_name": "Agustín Seyral", "ranking": 25089 }, { "player_name": "Tom Vandenberghe", "ranking": 25090 } ] } } }, "David Mella": { "player_id": 1146312, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 169, "market_value": 4500000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0242, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0148, "rating": 6.7103, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.502, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.05, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.46, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421050, "match_date": "2026-08-17", "home_team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo de A Coruña", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0041, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 5, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.7103, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "David Mella", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8, "expected_assists": 0.27, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 5, "total_passes": 366, "interceptions": 5, "tackles": 11, "avg_rating": 71.12, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.7, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Joaquín Muñoz", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 1400000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.417, "defenders": [ "Bright Ede" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.408, "duel_zone": "LM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.364, "xg_contribution": 0.1183, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Bright Ede", "role": "CB", "market_value": 620000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.636 } ], "duel_analysis": "Joaquín Muñoz (LM) faces tough defensive resistance against Bright Ede in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. Projected xG contribution: 0.118 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Dani Lorenzo", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1400000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.417, "defenders": [ "Lorenzo Amatucci" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.501, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.398, "xg_contribution": 0.097, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lorenzo Amatucci", "role": "CM", "market_value": 8199999, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.602 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dani Lorenzo (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Lorenzo Amatucci in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.097 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Izan Merino", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 1900000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.424, "defenders": [ "Lorenzo Amatucci" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.501, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.441, "xg_contribution": 0.1042, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lorenzo Amatucci", "role": "CM", "market_value": 8199999, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.559 } ], "duel_analysis": "Izan Merino (CM) is evenly matched against Lorenzo Amatucci in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.104 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "David Larrubia", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 5300000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.466, "defenders": [ "Bright Ede" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.408, "duel_zone": "RM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.386, "xg_contribution": 0.1309, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Bright Ede", "role": "CB", "market_value": 620000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.614 } ], "duel_analysis": "David Larrubia (RM) faces tough defensive resistance against Bright Ede in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Projected xG contribution: 0.131 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Chupete", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 10700000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.531, "defenders": [ "Bright Ede", "Ximo Navarro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.404, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.259, "xg_contribution": 0.0432, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Bright Ede", "role": "CB", "market_value": 620000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.741 }, { "player": "Ximo Navarro", "role": "CB", "market_value": 95000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.741 } ], "duel_analysis": "Chupete (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Bright Ede and Ximo Navarro in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 26%. Projected xG contribution: 0.043 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Mario Soriano", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 4600000, "attacker_height": 163, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.457, "defenders": [ "Carlos Puga" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.41, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.373, "xg_contribution": 0.0383, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.6, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carlos Puga", "role": "RB", "market_value": 825000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.627 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mario Soriano (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Carlos Puga in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. Projected xG contribution: 0.038 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Lorenzo Amatucci", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 8199999, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.501, "defenders": [ "Carlos Dotor" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.415, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.457, "xg_contribution": 0.1179, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carlos Dotor", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.543 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lorenzo Amatucci (CM) is evenly matched against Carlos Dotor in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.118 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Jonathan Asp Jensen", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 3900000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.449, "defenders": [ "Carlos Dotor" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.415, "duel_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.483, "xg_contribution": 0.161, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carlos Dotor", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.517 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jonathan Asp Jensen (CAM) is evenly matched against Carlos Dotor in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. Projected xG contribution: 0.161 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Bil Nsongo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "Einar Galilea", "Ángel Recio" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.404, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.21, "xg_contribution": 0.1015, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Einar Galilea", "role": "CB", "market_value": 365000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.79 }, { "player": "Ángel Recio", "role": "CB", "market_value": 315000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.79 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bil Nsongo (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Einar Galilea and Ángel Recio in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%. Projected xG contribution: 0.101 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2400000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.43, "defenders": [ "Einar Galilea", "Ángel Recio" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.404, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.226, "xg_contribution": 0.247, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Einar Galilea", "role": "CB", "market_value": 365000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.774 }, { "player": "Ángel Recio", "role": "CB", "market_value": 315000, "tackles_attempted": 0.9, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.6, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.774 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Einar Galilea and Ángel Recio in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. Projected xG contribution: 0.247 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Giacomo Quagliata", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 2100000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.426, "defenders": [ "Carlos Dotor" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.415, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.443, "xg_contribution": 0.1049, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carlos Dotor", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 1200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.557 } ], "duel_analysis": "Giacomo Quagliata (CM) is evenly matched against Carlos Dotor in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.105 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Adrià Altimira", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 1700000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.421, "defenders": [ "Rafa Garrido" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.412, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.404, "xg_contribution": 0.0703, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Rafa Garrido", "role": "LB", "market_value": 940000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.596 } ], "duel_analysis": "Adrià Altimira (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Rafa Garrido in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.070 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.478, "away_midfield_power": 0.454, "home_creative_power": 0.357, "away_creative_power": 0.407, "home_defensive_power": 0.417, "away_defensive_power": 0.407, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.513, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 2, "home_midfield_players": [ "Joaquín Muñoz", "Dani Lorenzo", "Carlos Dotor", "David Larrubia", "Izan Merino" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Mario Soriano", "Lorenzo Amatucci" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.3, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.7, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 3.6, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.9, "home_throughball_threat": 1.7, "away_throughball_threat": 1.8, "key_personal_duel": "David Larrubia vs Lorenzo Amatucci", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.998, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.996 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-1-4-1", "away_formation": "3-4-1-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.03, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.03, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-1-4-1 and 3-4-1-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 0.797, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "RM vs CB", "LM vs CB" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Joaquín Muñoz": { "opponents": [ "Bright Ede", "Mario Soriano" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dani Lorenzo": { "opponents": [ "Lorenzo Amatucci", "Mario Soriano" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Izan Merino": { "opponents": [ "Lorenzo Amatucci" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "David Larrubia": { "opponents": [ "Bright Ede", "Lorenzo Amatucci" ], "primary_zone": "RM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Chupete": { "opponents": [ "Bright Ede", "Ximo Navarro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Carlos Puga": { "opponents": [ "Mario Soriano" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Carlos Dotor": { "opponents": [ "Lorenzo Amatucci", "Jonathan Asp Jensen", "Giacomo Quagliata" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Einar Galilea": { "opponents": [ "Bil Nsongo", "Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ángel Recio": { "opponents": [ "Bil Nsongo", "Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Rafa Garrido": { "opponents": [ "Adrià Altimira" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Alfonso Herrero": { "opponents": [ "Jonathan Asp Jensen", "Bil Nsongo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Bright Ede": { "opponents": [ "Joaquín Muñoz", "David Larrubia", "Chupete" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Lorenzo Amatucci": { "opponents": [ "Dani Lorenzo", "Izan Merino", "Carlos Dotor", "David Larrubia" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ximo Navarro": { "opponents": [ "Chupete" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mario Soriano": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Puga", "Dani Lorenzo", "Joaquín Muñoz" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jonathan Asp Jensen": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Dotor" ], "primary_zone": "Attacking Mid vs Single Holding Mid — Space Creator Duel", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Bil Nsongo": { "opponents": [ "Einar Galilea", "Ángel Recio" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang": { "opponents": [ "Einar Galilea", "Ángel Recio" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Giacomo Quagliata": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Dotor" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Adrià Altimira": { "opponents": [ "Rafa Garrido" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Leo Román": { "opponents": [ "Chupete", "Izan Merino" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Lucas Noubi": { "opponents": [ "Chupete" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — David Larrubia vs Lorenzo Amatucci will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.49, Away: 0.84. Home danger zone: RM vs CB. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9965, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0238, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.01, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.087, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0039, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0114, "home_midfield_factor": 0.998, "away_midfield_factor": 0.996, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.4301, "away_avg_quality": 0.4352, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0051, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.1094, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.0508, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.0125, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0133, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0613, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0505, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.664, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.797, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.6643, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.7975, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.02, "final_away_lambda": 0.797 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 18, "opponent_position": 8, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.708, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 0.418, "form_multiplier": 0.954, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.5, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 1.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 8, "opponent_position": 18, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.6819, "attack_index": 0.418, "defense_concede_index": 0.836, "form_multiplier": 1.046, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.0, "team_ppg": 1.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-08-24T13:31:29Z" }