{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Real Betis", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260825", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "5-3-2", "away_formation": "4-3-3" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1301, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": null, "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.277, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1301 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1254 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0954 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0951 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0865 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0954, "0-1": 0.1254, "0-2": 0.0848, "0-3": 0.0379, "0-4": 0.0127, "0-5": 0.0034, "0-6": 0.0008, "1-0": 0.0951, "1-1": 0.1301, "1-2": 0.0865, "1-3": 0.0387, "1-4": 0.013, "1-5": 0.0035, "1-6": 0.0008, "2-0": 0.0491, "2-1": 0.0658, "2-2": 0.0441, "2-3": 0.0197, "2-4": 0.0066, "2-5": 0.0018, "3-0": 0.0167, "3-1": 0.0224, "3-2": 0.015, "3-3": 0.0067, "3-4": 0.0022, "3-5": 0.0006, "4-0": 0.0043, "4-1": 0.0057, "4-2": 0.0038, "4-3": 0.0017, "4-4": 0.0006, "5-0": 0.0009, "5-1": 0.0012, "5-2": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2835, "draw": 0.277, "away_win": 0.4395 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4201, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5799, "btts_yes": 0.4733, "btts_no": 0.5267, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2616, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3606 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 81.55, "MCR": 81.05, "ATR": 81.67, "GK": 85.52 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 82.98, "MCR": 84.87, "ATR": 86.93, "GK": 85.6 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Valencia vs Real Betis. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Guido Rodríguez, Cucho Hernández", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 5-3-2 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Javier Guerra vs Antony will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.37, Away: 0.73. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: LW vs RWB + CB." }, "confidence": 0.72, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.341 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2835, "draw": 0.277, "away_win": 0.4395 }, "favorite": "Real Betis", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4395, "fair_spread": -0.321, "fair_total": 2.361, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Valencia", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Real Betis", "estimate": 1.341, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4201, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4733, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Valencia", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2616, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Real Betis", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Arnaut Danjuma (Valencia)", "estimate": 0.292, "probability": 0.2662, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Cucho Hernández (Real Betis)", "estimate": 0.5025, "probability": 0.3177, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Jesús Vázquez (Valencia)", "estimate": 0.1183, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Antony (Real Betis)", "estimate": 0.2519, "probability": 0.5216, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.361, "expected_total_shots": 25, "expected_total_passes": 712, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.2, "possession_home_pct": 49.5, "possession_away_pct": 50.5, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Real Betis", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4395, "script": "Real Betis is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.32 goals and fair total 2.36.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Valencia must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Real Betis lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Real Betis chance creation leans on Cucho Hernández against Pepelu, Mouctar Diakhaby in LW vs RWB + CB; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Valencia: starters carry the main goal usage through Guido Rodríguez; bench watchlist: Hugo Duro, Lucas Beltrán.", "Real Betis: starters carry the main goal usage through Cucho Hernández; bench watchlist: Abdessamad Ezzalzouli, Troy Parrott, Gonzalo Petit.", "Assist usage should flow through Antony; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Real Betis tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.18 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Valencia is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Real Betis.", "Valencia wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Valencia": { "formation": "5-3-2", "players": { "Arnaut Danjuma": { "player_id": 827064, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 178, "market_value": 2800000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.292, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_shots": 2, "rating": 81.6724, "minutes": 90, "expected_assists": 0.0491, "duels_won": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "key_pass": 0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "fouls_drawn": 1, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "opponent_defenders": "Natan, Angel Ortiz", "opponent_faced": "Natan, Angel Ortiz", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.2662, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 17548, "combined_rank_score": 1377.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 677.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7733, "sofascore_appearances": 30.0, "fifa_rank": 2077.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.6724, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Arnaut Danjuma", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Raúl Moro", "ranking": 17543 }, { "player_name": "Filip Stanković", "ranking": 17544 }, { "player_name": "Lee Jae Sung", "ranking": 17545 }, { "player_name": "Gautier Larsonneur", "ranking": 17546 }, { "player_name": "Patrik Hrošovský", "ranking": 17547 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Dani Raba", "ranking": 17549 }, { "player_name": "Omar Mascarell", "ranking": 17550 }, { "player_name": "Eliesse Ben Seghir", "ranking": 17551 }, { "player_name": "Cadu", "ranking": 17552 }, { "player_name": "Qazim Laci", "ranking": 17553 } ] } } }, "Ryunosuke Sato": { "player_id": 1476200, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 39, "height": 171, "market_value": 2100000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0981, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1511, "rating": 88.6724, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 36, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 4, "total_shots": 1, "opponent_faced": "Marc Roca", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0689, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416298, "match_date": "2026-08-22 17:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Celta", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16231209, "match_date": "2026-06-06", "home_team": "FC Tokyo", "away_team": "Cerezo Osaka", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Tokyo", "opponent": "Cerezo Osaka", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.7, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 48, "key_pass": 6, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "J1 League", "league_id": "196", "league_slug": "j1-league", "league_country": "Japan", "season_id": "87931", "season_name": "J1 League 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 16231163, "match_date": "2026-05-30", "home_team": "Cerezo Osaka", "away_team": "FC Tokyo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "FC Tokyo", "opponent": "Cerezo Osaka", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "J1 League", "league_id": "196", "league_slug": "j1-league", "league_country": "Japan", "season_id": "87931", "season_name": "J1 League 2026", "season_year": 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"squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.6724, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ryunosuke Sato", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Konrad Laimer", "ranking": 1408 }, { "player_name": "Oybek Bozorov", "ranking": 1409 }, { "player_name": "Sergio Rochet", "ranking": 1410 }, { "player_name": "Marlon Freitas", "ranking": 1411 }, { "player_name": "Szabolcs Schön", "ranking": 1412 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jin-gyu Kim", "ranking": 1414 }, { "player_name": "Mohamed Chibi", "ranking": 1415 }, { "player_name": "Youssef Mehri", "ranking": 1416 }, { "player_name": "Tobias Storm", "ranking": 1417 }, { "player_name": "Gizo Mamageishvili", "ranking": 1418 } ] } } }, "Filip Ugrinić": { "player_id": 857482, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 185, "market_value": 5700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0493, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "rating": 81.688, "minutes": 63, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 18, "ball_recovery": 4, "duels_won": 2, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 10, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 3, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 33, "possession_lost": 7.9299, "dispossessed": 0.9912, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.1883, "ball_carries": 5, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.433, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "opponent_defenders": "Pablo Fornals", "opponent_faced": "Pablo Fornals", "antagonist_source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0823, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416298, "match_date": "2026-08-22 17:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Celta", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 14083739, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.019, "expected_assists": 0.059, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083687, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0394, "expected_assists": 0.0067, "total_shots": 1, 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"combined_rank_score": 1274.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 628.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8037, "sofascore_appearances": 27.0, "fifa_rank": 1921.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.688, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Filip Ugrinić", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting", "ranking": 17394 }, { "player_name": "Miroslav Stevanović", "ranking": 17395 }, { "player_name": "Julian Chabot", "ranking": 17396 }, { "player_name": "Kiril Despodov", "ranking": 17397 }, { "player_name": "Remko Pasveer", "ranking": 17398 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Marvin Pieringer", "ranking": 17400 }, { "player_name": "Michael Gregoritsch", "ranking": 17401 }, { "player_name": "Nikola Krstović", "ranking": 17402 }, { "player_name": "Nikita Haikin", "ranking": 17403 }, { "player_name": "Dani García", "ranking": 17404 } ] } } }, "Javier Guerra": { "player_id": 1122610, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 187, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1056, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1625, "rating": 67.1791, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 36, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 4, "total_shots": 1, "opponent_faced": "Antony", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0765, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 60.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416298, "match_date": "2026-08-22 17:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": 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"season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083608, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Elche", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Elche", "stats": { "minutes": 83, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1744, "expected_assists": 0.0942, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 17, "accurate_pass": 14, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632618, "match_date": "2026-04-16", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Sporting Braga", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Sporting Braga", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 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"ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631841, "match_date": "2026-03-19", "home_team": "Real Betis", "away_team": "Panathinaikos FC", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Real Betis", "opponent": "Panathinaikos FC", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 7.7, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.228, "expected_assists": 0.3896, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 37, "key_pass": 5, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa 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7.2931, "sofascore_appearances": 29.0, "fifa_rank": 1514.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.3596, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Abdessamad Ezzalzouli", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Yang Tae-Yang", "ranking": 15776 }, { "player_name": "Wilfried Zaha", "ranking": 15777 }, { "player_name": "Nico Elvedi", "ranking": 15778 }, { "player_name": "İsmail Yüksek", "ranking": 15779 }, { "player_name": "Saïd Benrahma", "ranking": 15780 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Carlos Vicente", "ranking": 15782 }, { "player_name": "Marc Casadó", "ranking": 15783 }, { "player_name": "Diego Coelho", "ranking": 15784 }, { "player_name": "Bobomurod Bozorov", "ranking": 15785 }, { "player_name": "Jani Atanasov", "ranking": 15786 } ] } } }, "Gonzalo Petit": { "player_id": 1482378, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 9, "height": 189, "market_value": 4200000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0772, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 75.7027, "minutes": 25, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "key_pass": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.572, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 69.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 24152, "combined_rank_score": 6878.0, "ranking_source": "fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "missing_sofascore_player_rating", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 6878.0, "fifa_overall": 69.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.7027, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Gonzalo Petit", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Willy Kumado", "ranking": 24147 }, { "player_name": "Curtis Nelson", "ranking": 24148 }, { "player_name": "Gaoussou Diakite", "ranking": 24149 }, { "player_name": "Tomasz Pieńko", "ranking": 24150 }, { "player_name": "Estanis Pedrola", "ranking": 24151 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Davide Bartesaghi", "ranking": 24153 }, { "player_name": "Tobias Anselm", "ranking": 24154 }, { "player_name": "Buatu", "ranking": 24155 }, { "player_name": "Frankie Westfield", "ranking": 24156 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Bassi", "ranking": 24157 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.34, "expected_assists": 0.52, "total_shots": 15, "shots_on_target": 9, "total_passes": 391, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 13, "avg_rating": 84.44, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.5, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Arnaut Danjuma", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 2800000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.435, "defenders": [ "Natan", "Angel Ortiz" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.57, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0949, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Natan", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Angel Ortiz", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Arnaut Danjuma (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Natan and Angel Ortiz in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.095 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "José Luis Gayà", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 4300000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.454, "defenders": [ "Rodrigo Riquelme", "Fran García" ], "defender_roles": [ "RW", "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.483, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.227, "xg_contribution": 0.0537, "shots_in_zone": 0.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Rodrigo Riquelme", "role": "RW", "market_value": 4300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.773 }, { "player": "Fran García", "role": "RB", "market_value": 9200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.773 } ], "duel_analysis": "José Luis Gayà (LWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Rodrigo Riquelme and Fran García in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. Projected xG contribution: 0.054 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Pepelu", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 7300000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.49, "defenders": [ "Cucho Hernández", "Diego Llorente" ], "defender_roles": [ "LW", "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.514, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.249, "xg_contribution": 0.059, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Cucho Hernández", "role": "LW", "market_value": 16500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.751 }, { "player": "Diego Llorente", "role": "LB", "market_value": 2600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.751 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pepelu (RWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Cucho Hernández and Diego Llorente in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 25%. Projected xG contribution: 0.059 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Guido Rodríguez", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 4200000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.452, "defenders": [ "Pablo Fornals" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.503, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.405, "xg_contribution": 0.0514, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Fornals", "role": "CM", "market_value": 8400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.595 } ], "duel_analysis": "Guido Rodríguez (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Pablo Fornals in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.051 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Filip Ugrinić", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 5700000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.471, "defenders": [ "Pablo Fornals" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.503, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.433, "xg_contribution": 0.1097, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pablo Fornals", "role": "CM", "market_value": 8400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.567 } ], "duel_analysis": "Filip Ugrinić (CM) is evenly matched against Pablo Fornals in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.110 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Cucho Hernández", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 16500000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.595, "defenders": [ "Pepelu", "Mouctar Diakhaby" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.454, "duel_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.309, "xg_contribution": 0.2714, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pepelu", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 7300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.691 }, { "player": "Mouctar Diakhaby", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 0.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.691 } ], "duel_analysis": "Cucho Hernández (LW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Pepelu and Mouctar Diakhaby in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 31%. Projected xG contribution: 0.271 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Rodrigo Riquelme", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 4300000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.454, "defenders": [ "José Luis Gayà", "Mouctar Diakhaby" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.436, "duel_zone": "RW vs LWB + CB", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.276, "xg_contribution": 0.1539, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "José Luis Gayà", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 4300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.724 }, { "player": "Mouctar Diakhaby", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.724 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rodrigo Riquelme (RW) is heavily outmatched defensively against José Luis Gayà and Mouctar Diakhaby in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 28%. Projected xG contribution: 0.154 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Marc Roca", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 4200000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.452, "defenders": [ "Mouctar Diakhaby", "César Tárrega" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.466, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.2037, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Mouctar Diakhaby", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "César Tárrega", "role": "CB", "market_value": 9300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Marc Roca (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Mouctar Diakhaby and César Tárrega in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.204 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Pablo Fornals", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 8400000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.503, "defenders": [ "Filip Ugrinić" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.471, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.407, "xg_contribution": 0.104, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Filip Ugrinić", "role": "CM", "market_value": 5700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.593 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo Fornals (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Filip Ugrinić in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Projected xG contribution: 0.104 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.555, "away_midfield_power": 0.579, "home_creative_power": 0.429, "away_creative_power": 0.55, "home_defensive_power": 0.429, "away_defensive_power": 0.473, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.489, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Ryunosuke Sato", "Filip Ugrinić", "Javier Guerra", "Pepelu", "Guido Rodríguez" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Pablo Fornals", "Facundo Bernal", "Marc Roca", "Antony", "Rodrigo Riquelme" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.5, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.5, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.5, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.1, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.8, "home_throughball_threat": 1.9, "away_throughball_threat": 2.2, "key_personal_duel": "Javier Guerra vs Antony", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.994, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.011 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "5-3-2", "away_formation": "4-3-3", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.03, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 5-3-2 and 4-3-3. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.341, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "LW vs RWB + CB", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Arnaut Danjuma": { "opponents": [ "Natan", "Angel Ortiz" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "José Luis Gayà": { "opponents": [ "Rodrigo Riquelme", "Fran García" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel" }, "Pepelu": { "opponents": [ "Cucho Hernández", "Diego Llorente", "Rodrigo Riquelme" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Guido Rodríguez": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Fornals", "Facundo Bernal" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Filip Ugrinić": { "opponents": [ "Pablo Fornals" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Mouctar Diakhaby": { "opponents": [ "Cucho Hernández", "Rodrigo Riquelme", "Marc Roca" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs RWB + CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "César Tárrega": { "opponents": [ "Marc Roca" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Javier Guerra": { "opponents": [ "Antony" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Ryunosuke Sato": { "opponents": [ "Marc Roca" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Stole Dimitrievski": { "opponents": [ "Cucho Hernández", "Antony" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jesús Vázquez": { "opponents": [ "Cucho Hernández" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Natan": { "opponents": [ "Arnaut Danjuma" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Angel Ortiz": { "opponents": [ "Arnaut Danjuma" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Rodrigo Riquelme": { "opponents": [ "José Luis Gayà", "Mouctar Diakhaby", "Pepelu" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Fran García": { "opponents": [ "José Luis Gayà" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RW + RB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Cucho Hernández": { "opponents": [ "Pepelu", "Mouctar Diakhaby" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "Diego Llorente": { "opponents": [ "Pepelu" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LW + LB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pablo Fornals": { "opponents": [ "Guido Rodríguez", "Filip Ugrinić" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Marc Roca": { "opponents": [ "Mouctar Diakhaby", "César Tárrega", "Ryunosuke Sato" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Facundo Bernal": { "opponents": [ "Guido Rodríguez" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Antony": { "opponents": [ "Javier Guerra" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Álvaro Valles": { "opponents": [ "Arnaut Danjuma", "Javier Guerra" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Javier Guerra vs Antony will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.37, Away: 0.73. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: LW vs RWB + CB.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.993, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0152, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1261, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0529, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9777, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9987, "home_midfield_factor": 0.994, "away_midfield_factor": 1.011, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4799, "away_avg_quality": 0.5327, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0528, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.5062, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.537, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.3945, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1132, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.2491, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1585, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0582, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0765, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.755, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.341, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.7552, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.3415, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.02, "final_away_lambda": 1.341 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 17, "opponent_position": 14, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 14, "opponent_position": 17, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-08-25T13:31:04Z" }