{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Celta", "away_team": "Osasuna", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260827", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-0", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1412, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": null, "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.3143, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1412 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1408 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1367 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1309 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0726 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1412, "0-1": 0.1408, "0-2": 0.0726, "0-3": 0.0247, "0-4": 0.0063, "0-5": 0.0013, "1-0": 0.1309, "1-1": 0.1367, "1-2": 0.0689, "1-3": 0.0234, "1-4": 0.006, "1-5": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.0629, "2-1": 0.0641, "2-2": 0.0327, "2-3": 0.0111, "2-4": 0.0028, "2-5": 0.0006, "3-0": 0.0199, "3-1": 0.0203, "3-2": 0.0103, "3-3": 0.0035, "3-4": 0.0009, "4-0": 0.0047, "4-1": 0.0048, "4-2": 0.0025, "4-3": 0.0008, "5-0": 0.0009, "5-1": 0.0009 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3241, "draw": 0.3143, "away_win": 0.3616 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3149, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6851, "btts_yes": 0.3934, "btts_no": 0.6066, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3606, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3871 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 80.56, "MCR": 84.55, "ATR": 79.24, "GK": 80.74 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 84.01, "MCR": 83.18, "ATR": 84.46, "GK": 85.37 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Celta vs Osasuna. Most likely scoreline: 0-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Aimar Oroz (LW) — Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank [0.209 xG]", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Williot Swedberg vs Jon Moncayola will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.31, Away: 0.55. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank." }, "confidence": 0.69, "home_lambda": 0.949, "away_lambda": 1.02 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3241, "draw": 0.3143, "away_win": 0.3616 }, "favorite": "Osasuna", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3616, "fair_spread": -0.071, "fair_total": 1.969, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Celta", "estimate": 0.949, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Osasuna", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3149, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3934, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Celta", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Osasuna", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3871, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Miguel Román (Celta)", "estimate": 0.5248, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Enzo Boyomo (Osasuna)", "estimate": 0.3421, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Sergio Carreira (Celta)", "estimate": 0.1248, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Valentin Rosier (Osasuna)", "estimate": 0.1276, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 1.969, "expected_total_shots": 25, "expected_total_passes": 636, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.2, "possession_home_pct": 51.6, "possession_away_pct": 48.4, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Osasuna", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3616, "script": "Osasuna is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.07 goals and fair total 1.97.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Celta must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Osasuna lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Osasuna chance creation leans on Aimar Oroz against Hugo Álvarez in Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Celta: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Pablo Durán, Borja Iglesias.", "Osasuna: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Ante Budimir, Moi Gómez.", "Assist usage should flow through the projected key-pass leaders; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Osasuna tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 0.98 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Celta is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Osasuna.", "Celta wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Celta": { "formation": "3-5-2", "players": { "Ionuț Radu": { "player_id": 815202, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 188, "market_value": 8700000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.2053, "rating": 80.7411, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 18, "total_long_balls": 14, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 42, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 12, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 1.6735, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 11.0233, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 17, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15, "expected_saves": 1.15, "high_pressure_saves": 0.44, "shots_faced": 2.5, "opponent_faced": "Aimar Oroz, Raúl Moro", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416298, "match_date": "2026-08-22 17:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Celta", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 14083715, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 26, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.404 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083656, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 26, "saves": 8, "goals_prevented": 0.7293 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083613, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 24, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -1.1055 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632619, "match_date": "2026-04-16", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "SC Freiburg", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "SC Freiburg", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0003, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 15, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -1.2657 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632615, "match_date": "2026-04-09", "home_team": "SC Freiburg", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "SC Freiburg", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 13, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 13, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.1284 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15126916, "match_date": "2026-03-26", "home_team": "Türkiye", "away_team": "Romania", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Romania", "opponent": "Türkiye", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 22, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 8, "saves": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15631844, "match_date": "2026-03-19", "home_team": "Olympique Lyonnais", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Olympique Lyonnais", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 12, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.2312 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631835, "match_date": "2026-03-12", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Olympique Lyonnais", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Olympique Lyonnais", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0014, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 16, "clearances": 4, "ball_recovery": 15, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 0.1336 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Europa League", "league_id": "679", "league_slug": "uefa-europa-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76984", "season_name": "UEFA Europa League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 17672, "combined_rank_score": 1466.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 366.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.9895, "sofascore_appearances": 38.0, "fifa_rank": 2566.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.7411, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Ionuț Radu", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kamory Doumbia", "ranking": 17667 }, { "player_name": "Djibril Sidibé", "ranking": 17668 }, { "player_name": "Benedict Hollerbach", "ranking": 17669 }, { "player_name": "Ricardo Rodríguez", "ranking": 17670 }, { "player_name": "Kristijan Kahlina", "ranking": 17671 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Otar Kiteishvili", "ranking": 17673 }, { "player_name": "Victor Nelsson", "ranking": 17674 }, { "player_name": "Gorosabel", "ranking": 17675 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Akpoguma", "ranking": 17676 }, { "player_name": "Diego Rodríguez", "ranking": 17677 } ] } } }, "Javi Rodríguez": { "player_id": 1526627, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 32, "height": 178, "market_value": 17500000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 82.8575, "minutes": 86, "total_pass": 56, "accurate_pass": 50, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 32, "accurate_own_half_passes": 29, "total_opp_half_passes": 25, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 21, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 68, "possession_lost": 7.5214, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.3184, "expected_assists": 0.0619, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 15, "total_progression": 67, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.2, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.811, "opponent_faced": "Raúl García de Haro", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416298, "match_date": "2026-08-22 17:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Celta", "opponent": "Valencia", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 14083715, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0109, "expected_assists": 0.0202, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 66, "accurate_pass": 61, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083656, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Celta Vigo", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 52, "accurate_pass": 44, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 9, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083613, "match_date": "2026-05-12", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Celta Vigo", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.026, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 74, "accurate_pass": 66, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632619, "match_date": "2026-04-16", "home_team": "Celta Vigo", "away_team": "SC Freiburg", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, 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Colidio", "ranking": 16284 }, { "player_name": "Toluwalase Arokodare", "ranking": 16285 }, { "player_name": "Tolu Arokodare", "ranking": 16286 }, { "player_name": "Daichi Kamada", "ranking": 16287 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Bayron Oyarzo", "ranking": 16289 }, { "player_name": "Martin Terrier", "ranking": 16290 }, { "player_name": "Orbelín Pineda", "ranking": 16291 }, { "player_name": "Bilal El Khannouss", "ranking": 16292 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Mendoza", "ranking": 16293 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.65, "total_shots": 16, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 293, "interceptions": 5, "tackles": 8, "avg_rating": 83.8, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.4, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Ferran Jutglà", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 10700000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.531, "defenders": [ "Abel Bretones", "Jorge Herrando" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.441, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0051, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Abel Bretones", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jorge Herrando", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ferran Jutglà (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Abel Bretones and Jorge Herrando in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.005 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Miguel Román", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 14400000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.573, "defenders": [ "Valentin Rosier" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.439, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.472, "xg_contribution": 0.0549, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Valentin Rosier", "role": "RB", "market_value": 3100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.528 } ], "duel_analysis": "Miguel Román (LWB) is evenly matched against Valentin Rosier in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Projected xG contribution: 0.055 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Hugo Álvarez", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 7800000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.496, "defenders": [ "Enzo Boyomo" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.575, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.345, "xg_contribution": 0.0706, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Enzo Boyomo", "role": "LB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.655 } ], "duel_analysis": "Hugo Álvarez (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Enzo Boyomo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. Projected xG contribution: 0.071 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Sergio Carreira", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 11500000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.54, "defenders": [ "Jon Moncayola" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.49, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.424, "xg_contribution": 0.118, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jon Moncayola", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 7300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.576 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sergio Carreira (CM) is evenly matched against Jon Moncayola in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.118 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ilaix Moriba", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 13700000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.565, "defenders": [ "Jon Moncayola" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.49, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.458, "xg_contribution": 0.0637, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jon Moncayola", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 7300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.542 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ilaix Moriba (CDM) is evenly matched against Jon Moncayola in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.064 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Aimar Oroz", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 6900000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.485, "defenders": [ "Hugo Álvarez" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.496, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.439, "xg_contribution": 0.2094, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Hugo Álvarez", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 7800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.561 } ], "duel_analysis": "Aimar Oroz (LW) is evenly matched against Hugo Álvarez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.209 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Raúl Moro", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 3300000, "attacker_height": 169, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.441, "defenders": [ "Miguel Román" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.573, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.345, "xg_contribution": 0.1709, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Miguel Román", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 14400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.655 } ], "duel_analysis": "Raúl Moro (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Miguel Román in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. Projected xG contribution: 0.171 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Jonathan Dubasin", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 4300000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.454, "defenders": [ "Sergio Carreira", "Ilaix Moriba" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.552, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM + CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.27, "xg_contribution": 0.0383, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sergio Carreira", "role": "CM", "market_value": 11500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.73 }, { "player": "Ilaix Moriba", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 13700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.73 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jonathan Dubasin (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Sergio Carreira and Ilaix Moriba in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 27%. Projected xG contribution: 0.038 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Raúl García de Haro", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3100000, "attacker_height": 192, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.439, "defenders": [ "Javi Rodríguez", "Abdoulaye Faye" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.529, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.189, "xg_contribution": 0.0731, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Javi Rodríguez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 17500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.811 }, { "player": "Abdoulaye Faye", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.811 } ], "duel_analysis": "Raúl García de Haro (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Javi Rodríguez and Abdoulaye Faye in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. Projected xG contribution: 0.073 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Jon Moncayola", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 7300000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.49, "defenders": [ "Sergio Carreira" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.54, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.426, "xg_contribution": 0.0556, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sergio Carreira", "role": "CM", "market_value": 11500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.574 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jon Moncayola (CDM) is evenly matched against Sergio Carreira in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.056 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.608, "away_midfield_power": 0.511, "home_creative_power": 0.514, "away_creative_power": 0.392, "home_defensive_power": 0.521, "away_defensive_power": 0.392, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.544, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Williot Swedberg", "Miguel Román", "Ilaix Moriba", "Sergio Carreira", "Hugo Álvarez" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Jon Moncayola", "Aimar Oroz", "Jonathan Dubasin", "Raúl Moro", "Lucas Torró" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.6, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 48.4, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.0, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.6, "away_key_passes_projected": 3.9, "home_throughball_threat": 2.1, "away_throughball_threat": 1.8, "key_personal_duel": "Williot Swedberg vs Jon Moncayola", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.019, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.981 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.06, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.06, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 0.949, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Ferran Jutglà": { "opponents": [ "Abel Bretones", "Jorge Herrando" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Miguel Román": { "opponents": [ "Valentin Rosier", "Raúl Moro", "Aimar Oroz" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Hugo Álvarez": { "opponents": [ "Enzo Boyomo", "Aimar Oroz", "Raúl Moro" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Sergio Carreira": { "opponents": [ "Jon Moncayola", "Jonathan Dubasin" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ilaix Moriba": { "opponents": [ "Jon Moncayola", "Jonathan Dubasin" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Javi Rodríguez": { "opponents": [ "Raúl García de Haro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Abdoulaye Faye": { "opponents": [ "Raúl García de Haro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Williot Swedberg": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Torró" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Ionuț Radu": { "opponents": [ "Raúl García de Haro", "Lucas Torró" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Carl Starfelt": { "opponents": [ "Raúl García de Haro" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jones El-Abdellaoui": { "opponents": [ "Enzo Boyomo", "Abel Bretones" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Abel Bretones": { "opponents": [ "Ferran Jutglà" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jorge Herrando": { "opponents": [ "Ferran Jutglà" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Valentin Rosier": { "opponents": [ "Miguel Román" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Enzo Boyomo": { "opponents": [ "Hugo Álvarez" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jon Moncayola": { "opponents": [ "Sergio Carreira", "Ilaix Moriba" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Aimar Oroz": { "opponents": [ "Hugo Álvarez", "Miguel Román" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Raúl Moro": { "opponents": [ "Miguel Román", "Hugo Álvarez" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jonathan Dubasin": { "opponents": [ "Sergio Carreira", "Ilaix Moriba" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM + CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Raúl García de Haro": { "opponents": [ "Javi Rodríguez", "Abdoulaye Faye" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Lucas Torró": { "opponents": [ "Williot Swedberg" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Sergio Herrera": { "opponents": [ "Jones El-Abdellaoui", "Ferran Jutglà" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Williot Swedberg vs Jon Moncayola will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.31, Away: 0.55. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0127, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9821, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.046, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.143, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9989, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.999, "home_midfield_factor": 1.019, "away_midfield_factor": 0.981, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5335, "away_avg_quality": 0.4639, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0697, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.6703, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.6126, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.929, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1605, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.353, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.2247, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0253, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1531, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.949, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.856, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.9493, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.8561, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 0.949, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 13, "opponent_position": 11, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 11, "opponent_position": 13, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-08-27T13:30:42Z" }