{ "match_info": { "home_team": "R. Racing Club", "away_team": "Elche", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260828", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "3-5-2" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1329, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": null, "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2858, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1329 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.128 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1045 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1042 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0823 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1045, "0-1": 0.1042, "0-2": 0.0537, "0-3": 0.0183, "0-4": 0.0047, "0-5": 0.001, "1-0": 0.128, "1-1": 0.1329, "1-2": 0.0672, "1-3": 0.0228, "1-4": 0.0058, "1-5": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.0807, "2-1": 0.0823, "2-2": 0.042, "2-3": 0.0143, "2-4": 0.0036, "2-5": 0.0007, "3-0": 0.0336, "3-1": 0.0343, "3-2": 0.0175, "3-3": 0.0059, "3-4": 0.0015, "4-0": 0.0105, "4-1": 0.0107, "4-2": 0.0055, "4-3": 0.0019, "5-0": 0.0026, "5-1": 0.0027, "5-2": 0.0014, "6-0": 0.0005, "6-1": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.4141, "draw": 0.2858, "away_win": 0.3001 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.396, "under_2_5_goals": 0.604, "btts_yes": 0.4574, "btts_no": 0.5426, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3606, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2865 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 69.24, "MCR": 82.67, "ATR": 86.94, "GK": 87.07 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 76.46, "MCR": 81.01, "ATR": 42.79, "GK": 87.67 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for R. Racing Club vs Elche. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Andrés Martín, Fernando Niño", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Gustavo Puerta vs Facundo Buonanotte will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.37, Away: 0.52. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.71, "home_lambda": 1.25, "away_lambda": 1.02 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.4141, "draw": 0.2858, "away_win": 0.3001 }, "favorite": "R. Racing Club", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4141, "fair_spread": 0.23, "fair_total": 2.27, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "R. Racing Club", "estimate": 1.25, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Elche", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.396, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4574, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "R. Racing Club", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Elche", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2865, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Andrés Martín (R. Racing Club)", "estimate": 0.5607, "probability": 0.4563, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Fernando Niño (Elche)", "estimate": 0.4667, "probability": 0.3469, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Andrés Martín (R. Racing Club)", "estimate": 0.3648, "probability": 0.406, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Facundo Buonanotte (Elche)", "estimate": 0.1805, "probability": 0.2324, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.27, "expected_total_shots": 24, "expected_total_passes": 658, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.0, "possession_home_pct": 50.9, "possession_away_pct": 49.1, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "R. Racing Club", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4141, "script": "R. Racing Club is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.23 goals and fair total 2.27.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Elche must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A R. Racing Club lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "R. Racing Club chance creation leans on Andrés Martín against Marc Aguado in Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "R. Racing Club: starters carry the main goal usage through Andrés Martín; bench watchlist: Asier Villalibre, Juan Carlos Arana.", "Elche: starters carry the main goal usage through Fernando Niño; bench watchlist: Álvaro Rodriguez, Rafa Mir.", "Assist usage should flow through Andrés Martín, Martim Neto; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: R. Racing Club tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.14 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Elche is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for R. Racing Club.", "Elche wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "R. Racing Club": { "formation": "3-5-2", "players": { "Julen Agirrezabala": { "player_id": 1014412, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 187, "market_value": 9800000, "stats": { "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 87.0699, "minutes": 91, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 16, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "touches": 32, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 3, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 4.0241, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15, "expected_saves": 1.09, "high_pressure_saves": 0.42, "shots_faced": 2.3, "opponent_faced": "Fernando Niño, Martim Neto", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416300, "match_date": "2026-08-23 17:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Getafe", "away_team": "R. 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"ranking": 22518 }, { "player_name": "Ian Harkes", "ranking": 22519 }, { "player_name": "Juanpe", "ranking": 22520 } ] } } }, "Pablo Ramón": { "player_id": 962381, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 186, "market_value": 1500000, "stats": { "interceptions": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 71.4807, "minutes": 76, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 27, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 19, "accurate_own_half_passes": 18, "total_opp_half_passes": 12, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 10, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 45, "possession_lost": 4.9061, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0098, 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"source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Álvaro Rodriguez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Kim Jin Kyu", "ranking": 21725 }, { "player_name": "Bruninho", "ranking": 21726 }, { "player_name": "Ephron Mason-Clark", "ranking": 21727 }, { "player_name": "Matteo Pérez Vinlöf", "ranking": 21728 }, { "player_name": "Sergio Córdova", "ranking": 21729 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Mateo Pellegrino", "ranking": 21731 }, { "player_name": "Nicolas Schmid", "ranking": 21732 }, { "player_name": "Nicholas Pierini", "ranking": 21733 }, { "player_name": "Bilal Bafdili", "ranking": 21734 }, { "player_name": "Ime Okon", "ranking": 21735 } ] } } }, "Rafa Mir": { "player_id": 825754, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 10, "height": 189, "market_value": 4099999, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0632, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 78.7002, "minutes": 25, "expected_assists": 0.0139, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "key_pass": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.561, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.35, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.444, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 18848, "combined_rank_score": 2359.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 833.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6593, "sofascore_appearances": 27.0, "fifa_rank": 3886.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.7002, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Rafa Mir", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "David Schnegg", "ranking": 18843 }, { "player_name": "Richard Schunke", "ranking": 18844 }, { "player_name": "Giuseppe Pezzella", "ranking": 18845 }, { "player_name": "Andrej Ilić", "ranking": 18846 }, { "player_name": "Facundo Farías", "ranking": 18847 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Olivier Deman", "ranking": 18849 }, { "player_name": "Luca Netz", "ranking": 18850 }, { "player_name": "Seung-Won Jeong", "ranking": 18851 }, { "player_name": "Lukas Engel", "ranking": 18852 }, { "player_name": "Yuito Suzuki", "ranking": 18853 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.51, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 309, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 9, "avg_rating": 73.42, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Iván Martín", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 4600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.457, "defenders": [ "Lucas Cepeda" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.432, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.435, "xg_contribution": 0.0772, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lucas Cepeda", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 2600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.565 } ], "duel_analysis": "Iván Martín (LWB) is evenly matched against Lucas Cepeda in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.077 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Gustavo Puerta", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 19200000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.623, "defenders": [ "Marc Aguado" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.446, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.502, "xg_contribution": 0.0913, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Aguado", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 3700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.498 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gustavo Puerta (CM) is slightly favored against Marc Aguado in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. The quality gap is significant (€19M vs €4M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.091 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Andrés Martín", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 8199999, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.501, "defenders": [ "Marc Aguado" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.446, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.475, "xg_contribution": 0.6436, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Marc Aguado", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 3700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.525 } ], "duel_analysis": "Andrés Martín (CM) is evenly matched against Marc Aguado in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Projected xG contribution: 0.644 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Sergio Canales", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "Martim Neto" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.447, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.381, "xg_contribution": 0.1285, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Martim Neto", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 3800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.619 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sergio Canales (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Martim Neto in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.129 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Yassir Zabiri", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 9800000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.52, "defenders": [ "David Affengruber", "Buba Sangaré" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.533, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.184, "xg_contribution": 0.2241, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "David Affengruber", "role": "CB", "market_value": 18100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.816 }, { "player": "Buba Sangaré", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.816 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yassir Zabiri (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against David Affengruber and Buba Sangaré in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.224 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Giorgi Guliashvili", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3400000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.442, "defenders": [ "David Affengruber", "Buba Sangaré" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.533, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.201, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "David Affengruber", "role": "CB", "market_value": 18100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Buba Sangaré", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Giorgi Guliashvili (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against David Affengruber and Buba Sangaré in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.201 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Martim Neto", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 3800000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.447, "defenders": [ "Sergio Canales" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.44, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.459, "xg_contribution": 0.0789, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sergio Canales", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.541 } ], "duel_analysis": "Martim Neto (LWB) is evenly matched against Sergio Canales in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.079 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Germán Valera", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 6200000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.477, "defenders": [ "Iñigo Vicente" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.482, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.416, "xg_contribution": 0.0658, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iñigo Vicente", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 6600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.584 } ], "duel_analysis": "Germán Valera (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Iñigo Vicente in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.066 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Facundo Buonanotte", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 10900000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.533, "defenders": [ "Iñigo Vicente" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.482, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.457, "xg_contribution": 0.0507, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iñigo Vicente", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 6600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.543 } ], "duel_analysis": "Facundo Buonanotte (CM) is evenly matched against Iñigo Vicente in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. Projected xG contribution: 0.051 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Lucas Cepeda", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 2600000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.432, "defenders": [ "Iván Martín" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.457, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.405, "xg_contribution": 0.018, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Iván Martín", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 4600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.595 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lucas Cepeda (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Iván Martín in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.018 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ezequiel Ponce", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.445, "defenders": [ "Jorge Salinas", "Facundo González" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.472, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0007, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jorge Salinas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Facundo González", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ezequiel Ponce (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jorge Salinas and Facundo González in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.001 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Fernando Niño", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 1800000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.422, "defenders": [ "Jorge Salinas", "Facundo González" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.472, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.19, "xg_contribution": 0.3071, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jorge Salinas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 8500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.81 }, { "player": "Facundo González", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.81 } ], "duel_analysis": "Fernando Niño (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jorge Salinas and Facundo González in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. Projected xG contribution: 0.307 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.551, "away_midfield_power": 0.517, "home_creative_power": 0.501, "away_creative_power": 0.482, "home_defensive_power": 0.486, "away_defensive_power": 0.392, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.516, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Gustavo Puerta", "Andrés Martín", "Iñigo Vicente", "Iván Martín", "Sergio Canales" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Facundo Buonanotte", "Germán Valera", "Martim Neto", "Marc Aguado", "Lucas Cepeda" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.8, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.5, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.4, "home_throughball_threat": 2.1, "away_throughball_threat": 2.0, "key_personal_duel": "Gustavo Puerta vs Facundo Buonanotte", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.012, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.996 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.25, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "LWB vs RWB" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Iván Martín": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Cepeda", "Martim Neto" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gustavo Puerta": { "opponents": [ "Marc Aguado", "Germán Valera" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Andrés Martín": { "opponents": [ "Marc Aguado", "Facundo Buonanotte" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Sergio Canales": { "opponents": [ "Martim Neto", "Lucas Cepeda" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Yassir Zabiri": { "opponents": [ "David Affengruber", "Buba Sangaré" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Giorgi Guliashvili": { "opponents": [ "David Affengruber", "Buba Sangaré" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Iñigo Vicente": { "opponents": [ "Germán Valera", "Facundo Buonanotte", "Marc Aguado" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jorge Salinas": { "opponents": [ "Ezequiel Ponce", "Fernando Niño" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Facundo González": { "opponents": [ "Ezequiel Ponce", "Fernando Niño" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Julen Agirrezabala": { "opponents": [ "Ezequiel Ponce", "Fernando Niño" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Pablo Ramón": { "opponents": [ "Ezequiel Ponce" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Lucas Cepeda": { "opponents": [ "Iván Martín", "Sergio Canales" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Marc Aguado": { "opponents": [ "Gustavo Puerta", "Andrés Martín", "Iñigo Vicente" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Martim Neto": { "opponents": [ "Sergio Canales", "Iván Martín" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "David Affengruber": { "opponents": [ "Yassir Zabiri", "Giorgi Guliashvili" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Buba Sangaré": { "opponents": [ "Yassir Zabiri", "Giorgi Guliashvili" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Germán Valera": { "opponents": [ "Iñigo Vicente", "Gustavo Puerta" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Facundo Buonanotte": { "opponents": [ "Iñigo Vicente", "Andrés Martín" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ezequiel Ponce": { "opponents": [ "Jorge Salinas", "Facundo González" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Fernando Niño": { "opponents": [ "Jorge Salinas", "Facundo González" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Alejandro Iturbe": { "opponents": [ "Yassir Zabiri", "Giorgi Guliashvili" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Víctor Chust": { "opponents": [ "Yassir Zabiri" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Gustavo Puerta vs Facundo Buonanotte will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.37, Away: 0.52. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0193, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9768, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.092, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.046, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9935, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0106, "home_midfield_factor": 1.012, "away_midfield_factor": 0.996, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.4828, "away_avg_quality": 0.4716, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0112, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.1268, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.1542, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.4225, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0383, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0779, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0624, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.25, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.662, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.2499, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.6624, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.25, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 5, "opponent_position": 7, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.6728, "attack_index": 0.836, "defense_concede_index": 0.418, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.5, "team_ppg": 1.0, "opponent_ppg": 1.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 7, "opponent_position": 5, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.6728, "attack_index": 0.418, "defense_concede_index": 0.836, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.0, "team_ppg": 1.0, "opponent_ppg": 1.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-08-28T13:30:43Z" }