{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Alavés", "away_team": "Villarreal", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260828", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "5-4-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1143, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": null, "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2407, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1143 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1072 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0972 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0926 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0653 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0639, "0-1": 0.1072, "0-2": 0.0926, "0-3": 0.0529, "0-4": 0.0227, "0-5": 0.0078, "0-6": 0.0022, "0-7": 0.0005, "1-0": 0.0653, "1-1": 0.1143, "1-2": 0.0972, "1-3": 0.0556, "1-4": 0.0238, "1-5": 0.0082, "1-6": 0.0023, "1-7": 0.0006, "2-0": 0.0348, "2-1": 0.0596, "2-2": 0.051, "2-3": 0.0292, "2-4": 0.0125, "2-5": 0.0043, "2-6": 0.0012, "3-0": 0.0122, "3-1": 0.0208, "3-2": 0.0179, "3-3": 0.0102, "3-4": 0.0044, "3-5": 0.0015, "4-0": 0.0032, "4-1": 0.0055, "4-2": 0.0047, "4-3": 0.0027, "4-4": 0.0011, "5-0": 0.0007, "5-1": 0.0011, "5-2": 0.001, "5-3": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2309, "draw": 0.2407, "away_win": 0.5284 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5219, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4781, "btts_yes": 0.5338, "btts_no": 0.4662, "home_clean_sheet": 0.1801, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3499 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 82.14, "MCR": 79.78, "ATR": 79.93, "GK": 86.83 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 81.76, "MCR": 83.07, "ATR": 85.0, "GK": 83.2 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Alavés vs Villarreal. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Toni Martínez, Georges Mikautadze", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 5-4-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Antonio Blanco vs Alberto Moleiro). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.62, Away: 0.84. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block." }, "confidence": 0.76, "home_lambda": 1.05, "away_lambda": 1.714 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2309, "draw": 0.2407, "away_win": 0.5284 }, "favorite": "Villarreal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5284, "fair_spread": -0.664, "fair_total": 2.764, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Alavés", "estimate": 1.05, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Villarreal", "estimate": 1.714, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5219, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5338, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Alavés", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1801, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Villarreal", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3499, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Toni Martínez (Alavés)", "estimate": 0.435, "probability": 0.4153, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Georges Mikautadze (Villarreal)", "estimate": 0.4972, "probability": 0.4772, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Miguel Rodríguez (Alavés)", "estimate": 0.0985, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Alberto Moleiro (Villarreal)", "estimate": 0.2203, "probability": 0.2678, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.764, "expected_total_shots": 24, "expected_total_passes": 690, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.5, "possession_home_pct": 47.8, "possession_away_pct": 52.2, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Villarreal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5284, "script": "Villarreal is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.66 goals and fair total 2.76.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Alavés must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Villarreal lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Villarreal chance creation leans on Georges Mikautadze against Youssef Enriquez, Nahuel Tenaglia in Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Alavés: starters carry the main goal usage through Toni Martínez; bench watchlist: Ibrahim Diabaté, Aitor Mañas.", "Villarreal: starters carry the main goal usage through Georges Mikautadze; bench watchlist: Tani Oluwaseyi, Nicolas Pépé.", "Assist usage should flow through Alberto Moleiro; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Villarreal tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.38 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Alavés is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Villarreal.", "Alavés wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Alavés": { "formation": "3-5-2", "players": { "Antonio Sivera": { "player_id": 369004, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 184, "market_value": 5600000, "stats": { "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.1871, "rating": 86.8327, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 17, "total_long_balls": 24, "accurate_long_balls": 11, "touches": 39, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 10, "high_claims": 3, "punches": 0.9909, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 4, "possession_lost": 13.0794, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 9, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "expected_saves": 1.77, "high_pressure_saves": 0.67, "shots_faced": 3.8, "opponent_faced": "Georges Mikautadze, Alberto Moleiro", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16416292, "match_date": "2026-08-20", "home_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 24, "accurate_pass": 13, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.0097 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0005, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 14, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.0882 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083706, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2019, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 24, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 12, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": -0.2241 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083692, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0039, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 19, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 8 }, 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420.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.95, "sofascore_appearances": 38.0, "fifa_rank": 657.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 4, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.8327, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Antonio Sivera", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Derick Edmund", "ranking": 7328 }, { "player_name": "Mahmoud Khudair Aouda", "ranking": 7329 }, { "player_name": "Jun-Young Byun", "ranking": 7330 }, { "player_name": "Yeison Ortega", "ranking": 7331 }, { "player_name": "Jack Grealish", "ranking": 7332 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Nicola Pérez", "ranking": 7334 }, { "player_name": "Jun-seo Park", "ranking": 7335 }, { "player_name": "Chang-woo Park", "ranking": 7336 }, { "player_name": "Ronan", "ranking": 7337 }, { "player_name": "Roy Revivo", "ranking": 7338 } ] } } }, "Youssef Enriquez": { "player_id": 1403364, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 3, "height": 170, "market_value": 4300000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 83.9037, "minutes": 30, "total_pass": 10, "accurate_pass": 9, "duels_won": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 2, "touches": 20, "possession_lost": 3.2836, "dispossessed": 0.9861, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.069, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 3, "total_progression": 9, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 0.6, 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"league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 16421047, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "away_team": "Getafe", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Getafe", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0674, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083692, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Oviedo", "away_team": "Deportivo Alavés", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Deportivo Alavés", "opponent": "Real Oviedo", "stats": { 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15846 }, { "player_name": "Luis Javier Suárez", "ranking": 15847 }, { "player_name": "Sacha Boey", "ranking": 15848 }, { "player_name": "Dani Vivian", "ranking": 15849 }, { "player_name": "Jakub Kiwior", "ranking": 15850 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Emanuel Reynoso", "ranking": 15852 }, { "player_name": "Timo Werner", "ranking": 15853 }, { "player_name": "Joaquín Larrivey", "ranking": 15854 }, { "player_name": "Oğuz Aydın", "ranking": 15855 }, { "player_name": "Edon Zhegrova", "ranking": 15856 } ] } } }, "Nahuel Tenaglia": { "player_id": 896073, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 14, "height": 182, "market_value": 3200000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "rating": 82.9473, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 26, "duels_won": 5, "total_long_balls": 6, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15, "total_opp_half_passes": 16, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 11, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 53, "possession_lost": 9.0342, "dispossessed": 0.982, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 5, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.982, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1172, "expected_assists": 0.0196, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 2, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.1571, "ball_carries": 11, "total_progression": 76, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 0.6, "tackles_won_in_zone": 0.7, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Georges Mikautadze", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", 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"expected_goals": 0.1448, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 7, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 11886259, "match_date": "2024-07-10", "home_team": "Argentina", "away_team": "Canada", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Canada", "opponent": "Argentina", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2702, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" }, { "match_id": 11886368, "match_date": "2024-06-30", "home_team": "Canada", "away_team": "Chile", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Canada", "opponent": "Chile", "stats": { "minutes": 14, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0201, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" }, { "match_id": 11886361, "match_date": "2024-06-25", "home_team": "Peru", "away_team": "Canada", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Canada", "opponent": "Peru", "stats": { "minutes": 8, "rating": 5.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.8307, "expected_assists": 0.0, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 20198, "combined_rank_score": 3366.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 1017.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.504, "sofascore_appearances": 27.0, "fifa_rank": 5716.0, "fifa_overall": 70.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.5996, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Tani Oluwaseyi", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ertuğrul Taşkıran", "ranking": 20193 }, { "player_name": "Sandro Kulenović", "ranking": 20194 }, { "player_name": "Rodrigo Cabral", "ranking": 20195 }, { "player_name": "Ugo Raghouber", "ranking": 20196 }, { "player_name": "Donis Avdijaj", "ranking": 20197 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Mauro Díaz", "ranking": 20199 }, { "player_name": "Vito van Crooij", "ranking": 20200 }, { "player_name": "Melih Kabasakal", "ranking": 20201 }, { "player_name": "Jiří Letáček", "ranking": 20202 }, { "player_name": "Alan Aguerre", "ranking": 20203 } ] } } }, "Nicolas Pépé": { "player_id": 593526, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 183, "market_value": 6600000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0007, "goal_rate": 0.0001, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0279, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 86.5954, "minutes": 25, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 4, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 7, "possession_lost": 2.1107, "dispossessed": 1.9891, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 12, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.567, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.47, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.465, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416302, "match_date": "2026-08-23 15:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Atl. Madrid", "away_team": "Villarreal", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Atl. Madrid", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16421061, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Real Racing Club", "away_team": "Villarreal", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Real Racing Club", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 7.8, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0802, "expected_assists": 0.232, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 38, "accurate_pass": 33, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 12812989, "match_date": "2026-06-30", "home_team": "Côte d'Ivoire", "away_team": "Norway", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Côte d'Ivoire", "opponent": "Norway", "stats": { "minutes": 87, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.3771, "expected_assists": 0.2637, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 24, "key_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186908, "match_date": "2026-06-25", "home_team": "Curaçao", "away_team": "Côte d'Ivoire", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Côte d'Ivoire", "opponent": "Curaçao", "stats": { "minutes": 67, "rating": 8.0, "goal_rate": 2.0, "goals": 2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.5579, "expected_assists": 0.0659, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 40, "key_pass": 1, "interceptions": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186905, "match_date": "2026-06-20", "home_team": "Germany", "away_team": "Côte d'Ivoire", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Côte d'Ivoire", "opponent": "Germany", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.1151, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186904, "match_date": "2026-06-14", "home_team": "Côte d'Ivoire", "away_team": "Ecuador", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Côte d'Ivoire", "opponent": "Ecuador", "stats": { "minutes": 77, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2232, "expected_assists": 0.0621, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 28, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14083735, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Atlético Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.3, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.1172, "expected_assists": 0.2105, "total_shots": 4, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 48, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083644, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Villarreal", "opponent": "Sevilla", "stats": { "minutes": 60, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0632, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 17, "key_pass": 2, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 8451, "combined_rank_score": 429.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 176.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.2389, "sofascore_appearances": 36.0, "fifa_rank": 682.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.5954, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nicolas Pépé", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Seyed Mohammadreza Hosseini", "ranking": 8446 }, { "player_name": "Alex Gálvez", "ranking": 8447 }, { "player_name": "Andrick Edwards", "ranking": 8448 }, { "player_name": "Ahmed Noor", "ranking": 8449 }, { "player_name": "Shin-ri Kim", "ranking": 8450 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Choi Kang-Min", "ranking": 8452 }, { "player_name": "Kilmar Peña", "ranking": 8453 }, { "player_name": "Yevhen Banada", "ranking": 8454 }, { "player_name": "Franck Honorat", "ranking": 8455 }, { "player_name": "Yhonattan Yustiz", "ranking": 8456 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.71, "expected_assists": 0.87, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 9, "total_passes": 442, "interceptions": 5, "tackles": 10, "avg_rating": 82.66, "possession_estimated_pct": 52.2, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Miguel Rodríguez", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 4099999, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.451, "defenders": [ "Santiago Mouriño" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.625, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.314, "xg_contribution": 0.0415, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Santiago Mouriño", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 19400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.686 } ], "duel_analysis": "Miguel Rodríguez (LWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Santiago Mouriño in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€4M vs €19M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.041 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Antonio Blanco", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 9700000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.519, "defenders": [ "Alberto Moleiro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.837, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.293, "xg_contribution": 0.0433, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "role": "CM", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.707 } ], "duel_analysis": "Antonio Blanco (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Alberto Moleiro in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€10M vs €54M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.043 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ángel Pérez", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 2800000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.435, "defenders": [ "Alberto Moleiro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.837, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.283, "xg_contribution": 0.0356, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alberto Moleiro", "role": "CM", "market_value": 54000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.717 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ángel Pérez (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Alberto Moleiro in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 28%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €54M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.036 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Carles Aleñá", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 2800000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.435, "defenders": [ "Carlos Romero" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.339, "xg_contribution": 0.0645, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carlos Romero", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.661 } ], "duel_analysis": "Carles Aleñá (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Carlos Romero in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€3M vs €24M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.065 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Toni Martínez", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 7300000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.49, "defenders": [ "Renato Veiga", "Pau Navarro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.642, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.3646, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Renato Veiga", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Pau Navarro", "role": "CB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Toni Martínez (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Renato Veiga and Pau Navarro in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.365 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Lucas Boyé", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 5300000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.466, "defenders": [ "Renato Veiga", "Pau Navarro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.642, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0662, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Renato Veiga", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Pau Navarro", "role": "CB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lucas Boyé (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Renato Veiga and Pau Navarro in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €22M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.066 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Georges Mikautadze", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 32000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.732, "defenders": [ "Youssef Enriquez", "Nahuel Tenaglia", "Nicolás Valentini" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.444, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "numerical_situation": "1v3", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.4891, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Youssef Enriquez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4300000, "tackles_attempted": 0.6, "tackles_won": 0.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Nahuel Tenaglia", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3200000, "tackles_attempted": 0.6, "tackles_won": 0.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Nicolás Valentini", "role": "CB", "market_value": 3100000, "tackles_attempted": 0.6, "tackles_won": 0.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Georges Mikautadze (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Youssef Enriquez and Nahuel Tenaglia and Nicolás Valentini in a 3-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€32M vs €4M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.489 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Carlos Romero", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Carles Aleñá" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.435, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.501, "xg_contribution": 0.0703, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Carles Aleñá", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 2800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.499 } ], "duel_analysis": "Carlos Romero (LWB) is slightly favored against Carles Aleñá in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €3M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.070 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Santiago Mouriño", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 19400000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.625, "defenders": [ "Miguel Rodríguez" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.451, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.526, "xg_contribution": 0.0958, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Miguel Rodríguez", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 4099999, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.474 } ], "duel_analysis": "Santiago Mouriño (RWB) is slightly favored against Miguel Rodríguez in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 53%. The quality gap is significant (€19M vs €4M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.096 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Alberto Moleiro", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 54000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.837, "defenders": [ "Antonio Blanco" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.519, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.547, "xg_contribution": 0.1885, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Antonio Blanco", "role": "CM", "market_value": 9700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.453 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alberto Moleiro (CM) is slightly favored against Antonio Blanco in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 55%. The quality gap is significant (€54M vs €10M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.189 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.508, "away_midfield_power": 0.701, "home_creative_power": 0.391, "away_creative_power": 0.638, "home_defensive_power": 0.417, "away_defensive_power": 0.529, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.42, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Antonio Blanco", "Pablo Ibáñez", "Miguel Rodríguez", "Carles Aleñá", "Ángel Pérez" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Alberto Moleiro", "Pape Gueye", "Tajon Buchanan", "Ilias Akhomach" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 47.8, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 52.2, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 3.8, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.3, "home_throughball_threat": 1.8, "away_throughball_threat": 2.5, "key_personal_duel": "Antonio Blanco vs Alberto Moleiro", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.972, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.032 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "5-4-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.04, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.04, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 5-4-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.05, "away_lambda": 1.714, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Miguel Rodríguez": { "opponents": [ "Santiago Mouriño", "Tajon Buchanan" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Antonio Blanco": { "opponents": [ "Alberto Moleiro", "Pape Gueye" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ángel Pérez": { "opponents": [ "Alberto Moleiro", "Ilias Akhomach" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Carles Aleñá": { "opponents": [ "Carlos Romero", "Alberto Moleiro" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Toni Martínez": { "opponents": [ "Renato Veiga", "Pau Navarro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Lucas Boyé": { "opponents": [ "Renato Veiga", "Pau Navarro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Youssef Enriquez": { "opponents": [ "Georges Mikautadze" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nahuel Tenaglia": { "opponents": [ "Georges Mikautadze" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nicolás Valentini": { "opponents": [ "Georges Mikautadze" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pablo Ibáñez": { "opponents": [ "Alberto Moleiro" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Antonio Sivera": { "opponents": [ "Georges Mikautadze", "Pape Gueye" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Santiago Mouriño": { "opponents": [ "Miguel Rodríguez" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "Alberto Moleiro": { "opponents": [ "Antonio Blanco", "Ángel Pérez", "Pablo Ibáñez", "Carles Aleñá" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Carlos Romero": { "opponents": [ "Carles Aleñá" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel" }, "Renato Veiga": { "opponents": [ "Toni Martínez", "Lucas Boyé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pau Navarro": { "opponents": [ "Toni Martínez", "Lucas Boyé" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Georges Mikautadze": { "opponents": [ "Youssef Enriquez", "Nahuel Tenaglia", "Nicolás Valentini" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Pape Gueye": { "opponents": [ "Antonio Blanco" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Ilias Akhomach": { "opponents": [ "Ángel Pérez" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Tajon Buchanan": { "opponents": [ "Miguel Rodríguez" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Luiz Júnior": { "opponents": [ "Toni Martínez", "Lucas Boyé" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Logan Costa": { "opponents": [ "Toni Martínez" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~52% possession expected (Antonio Blanco vs Alberto Moleiro). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.62, Away: 0.84. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Striker vs Three Centre Backs — Overloaded Defensive Block.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9644, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9975, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1486, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9256, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.009, "home_midfield_factor": 0.972, "away_midfield_factor": 1.032, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4579, "away_avg_quality": 0.659, "avg_quality_gap": -0.2011, "squad_value_gap_log": -1.5256, "top5_value_gap_log": -1.5302, "attack_value_gap_log": -1.2387, "elite_count_gap": -1, "combined_quality_gap": -0.3939, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.8666, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.5515, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0211, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0271, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.3939, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1035, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9706, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 0.671, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 1.553, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.05, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.651, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.714, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.6711, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.5531, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.05, "final_away_lambda": 1.714 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 1, "opponent_position": 6, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.1547, "attack_index": 1.671, "defense_concede_index": 0.836, "form_multiplier": 1.046, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 2.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.0, "team_ppg": 2.0, "opponent_ppg": 1.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 6, "opponent_position": 1, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.6636, "attack_index": 0.836, "defense_concede_index": 0.418, "form_multiplier": 0.954, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.5, "team_ppg": 1.0, "opponent_ppg": 2.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-08-28T13:31:06Z" }