{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Arsenal", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260829", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "3-5-2" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1265, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": null, "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2673, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1265 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.122 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0904 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0886 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0865 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0865, "0-1": 0.122, "0-2": 0.0886, "0-3": 0.0425, "0-4": 0.0153, "0-5": 0.0044, "0-6": 0.0011, "1-0": 0.0861, "1-1": 0.1265, "1-2": 0.0904, "1-3": 0.0434, "1-4": 0.0156, "1-5": 0.0045, "1-6": 0.0011, "2-0": 0.0444, "2-1": 0.064, "2-2": 0.0461, "2-3": 0.0221, "2-4": 0.008, "2-5": 0.0023, "2-6": 0.0006, "3-0": 0.0151, "3-1": 0.0218, "3-2": 0.0157, "3-3": 0.0075, "3-4": 0.0027, "3-5": 0.0008, "4-0": 0.0039, "4-1": 0.0055, "4-2": 0.004, "4-3": 0.0019, "4-4": 0.0007, "5-0": 0.0008, "5-1": 0.0011, "5-2": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2663, "draw": 0.2673, "away_win": 0.4663 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4459, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5541, "btts_yes": 0.489, "btts_no": 0.511, "home_clean_sheet": 0.2369, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3606 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 86.0, "MCR": 84.15, "ATR": 87.44, "GK": 81.69 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 92.32, "MCR": 94.37, "ATR": 95.0, "GK": 94.61 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Aston Villa vs Arsenal. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Ollie Watkins, Eberechi Eze", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Johan Manzambi vs Declan Rice will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.38, Away: 0.32. Home danger zone: LM vs RWB. Away danger zone: Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run." }, "confidence": 0.73, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.44 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2663, "draw": 0.2673, "away_win": 0.4663 }, "favorite": "Arsenal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4663, "fair_spread": -0.42, "fair_total": 2.46, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Aston Villa", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Arsenal", "estimate": 1.44, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4459, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.489, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Aston Villa", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2369, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Arsenal", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa)", "estimate": 0.3062, "probability": 0.3052, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Jurriën Timber (Arsenal)", "estimate": 0.4869, "probability": 0.0536, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Boubacar Kamara (Aston Villa)", "estimate": 0.1083, "probability": 0.2913, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Eberechi Eze (Arsenal)", "estimate": 0.2258, "probability": 0.1842, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.46, "expected_total_shots": 27, "expected_total_passes": 891, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 17.3, "possession_home_pct": 49.7, "possession_away_pct": 50.3, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Arsenal", "favorite_win_probability": 0.4663, "script": "Arsenal is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.42 goals and fair total 2.46.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Aston Villa must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Arsenal lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Aston Villa chance creation leans on Johan Manzambi against Eberechi Eze in LM vs RWB; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Aston Villa: starters carry the main goal usage through Ollie Watkins; bench watchlist: Morgan Rogers, Tammy Abraham, Brian Madjo.", "Arsenal: starters carry the main goal usage through Eberechi Eze; bench watchlist: Noni Madueke, Kai Havertz, Christos Tzolis.", "Assist usage should flow through Boubacar Kamara, Declan Rice; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Arsenal tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.23 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Aston Villa is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Arsenal.", "Aston Villa wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Aston Villa": { "formation": "4-4-2", "players": { "Zion Suzuki": { "player_id": 905351, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 31, "height": 189, "market_value": 31000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.4929, "rating": 81.6883, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 17, "total_long_balls": 17, "accurate_long_balls": 5, "touches": 42, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 2.4872, "aerial_won": 2, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 4, "possession_lost": 12.276, "duels_won": 2, "duels_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 15, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "expected_saves": 0.67, "high_pressure_saves": 0.26, "shots_faced": 1.4, "opponent_faced": "Martín Zubimendi, Declan Rice", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363236, "match_date": "2026-08-23 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Brighton", "away_team": "Aston Villa", "home_score_current": 4.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Aston Villa", "opponent": "Brighton", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 12813012, "match_date": "2026-06-29", "home_team": "Brazil", "away_team": "Japan", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Japan", "opponent": "Brazil", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 20, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 12, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.5524 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186972, "match_date": "2026-06-25", "home_team": "Japan", "away_team": "Sweden", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Japan", "opponent": "Sweden", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 13, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.1638 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186963, "match_date": "2026-06-21", "home_team": "Tunisia", "away_team": "Japan", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Japan", "opponent": "Tunisia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0055, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 19, "accurate_pass": 17, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186945, "match_date": "2026-06-14", "home_team": "Netherlands", "away_team": "Japan", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Japan", "opponent": "Netherlands", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 20, "accurate_pass": 10, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 0.1613 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 13980069, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Como", "away_team": "Parma", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Parma", "opponent": "Como", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0028, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 13, "saves": 6, "goals_prevented": 1.1392 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Serie A", "league_id": "23", "league_slug": "serie-a", "league_country": "Italy", "season_id": "76457", "season_name": "Serie A 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13980062, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Parma", "away_team": "AS Roma", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Parma", "opponent": "AS Roma", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0014, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 39, "accurate_pass": 19, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.2076 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Serie A", "league_id": "23", "league_slug": "serie-a", "league_country": "Italy", "season_id": "76457", "season_name": "Serie A 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 17409, "combined_rank_score": 1280.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 2479.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.6883, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Zion Suzuki", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Dani García", "ranking": 17404 }, { "player_name": "Mërgim Vojvoda", "ranking": 17405 }, { "player_name": "Denys Popov", "ranking": 17406 }, { "player_name": "Rani Khedira", "ranking": 17407 }, { "player_name": "Josha Vagnoman", "ranking": 17408 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Gustavo Hamer", "ranking": 17410 }, { "player_name": "Gustaf Nilsson", "ranking": 17411 }, { "player_name": "Timothy Weah", "ranking": 17412 }, { "player_name": "Lukas Nmecha", "ranking": 17413 }, { "player_name": "Alexandru Mitriță", "ranking": 17414 } ] } } }, "Ezri Konsa": { "player_id": 827679, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 183, "market_value": 47000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 89.1883, "minutes": 93, "total_pass": 61, "accurate_pass": 59, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 3, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 41, "accurate_own_half_passes": 40, "total_opp_half_passes": 20, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 18, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 72, "possession_lost": 3.3582, "dispossessed": 1.0939, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 1.0939, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2529, "expected_assists": 0.0109, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.7657, "ball_carries": 25, "total_progression": 86, "progressive_carries": 1, "key_pass": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 2.3, "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.595, "opponent_faced": "Eberechi Eze", "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.1269, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0621, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 12813003, "match_date": "2026-07-18", "home_team": "France", "away_team": "England", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "England", "opponent": "France", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0943, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 47, "accurate_pass": 45, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 12812996, "match_date": "2026-07-15", "home_team": "England", "away_team": "Argentina", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "England", "opponent": "Argentina", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 5, "interceptions": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 12813017, "match_date": "2026-07-11 21:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": 16, "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": 58210, "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026", "home_team": "Norway", "away_team": "England", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 110, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "AET", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "England", "opponent": "Norway", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 12813007, "match_date": "2026-07-06", "home_team": "Mexico", "away_team": "England", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "England", "opponent": "Mexico", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0022, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 28, "clearances": 6, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 12813020, "match_date": "2026-07-01", "home_team": "England", "away_team": "DR Congo", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "England", "opponent": "DR Congo", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0244, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 72, "accurate_pass": 70, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186676, "match_date": "2026-06-27", "home_team": "Panama", "away_team": "England", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "England", "opponent": "Panama", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.014, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 72, "accurate_pass": 71, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186672, "match_date": "2026-06-23", "home_team": "England", "away_team": "Ghana", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "England", "opponent": "Ghana", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0461, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 118, "accurate_pass": 116, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": 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0, "expected_assists": 0.0041, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 6, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632631, "match_date": "2026-04-15", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Sporting CP", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Arsenal", "opponent": "Sporting CP", "stats": { "minutes": 34, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0204, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 15, "key_pass": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 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"key_pass": 4, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Pro League", "league_id": "38", "league_slug": "pro-league", "league_country": "Belgium", "season_id": "77040", "season_name": "Pro League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15858563, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Club Brugge KV", "away_team": "Sint-Truidense VV", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Club Brugge KV", "opponent": "Sint-Truidense VV", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.9, "assists": 2, "expected_goals": 0.0672, "expected_assists": 0.6352, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 63, "accurate_pass": 51, "key_pass": 8, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Pro League", "league_id": "38", "league_slug": "pro-league", "league_country": "Belgium", "season_id": "77040", "season_name": "Pro League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13233689, "match_date": "2025-11-18", "home_team": "Belarus", "away_team": "Greece", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Greece", "opponent": "Belarus", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.7, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 5, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 3, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 29, "key_pass": 3, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 6688, "combined_rank_score": 414.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 135.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.35, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 694.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 15, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 9.3211, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Christos Tzolis", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Eyder Restrepo", "ranking": 6683 }, { "player_name": "Ángel Caicedo", "ranking": 6684 }, { "player_name": "Javier Figueroa", "ranking": 6685 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Bernal", "ranking": 6686 }, { "player_name": "Joel Guevara", "ranking": 6687 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Diego Oyarzún", "ranking": 6689 }, { "player_name": "Mahmoud Salah", "ranking": 6690 }, { "player_name": "Radomir Milosavljević", "ranking": 6691 }, { "player_name": "Ahmed Atef", "ranking": 6692 }, { "player_name": "Isaiah Johnston", "ranking": 6693 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.44, "expected_assists": 1.39, "total_shots": 15, "shots_on_target": 7, "total_passes": 513, "interceptions": 9, "tackles": 18, "avg_rating": 93.95, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.3, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Alejandro Garnacho", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "William Saliba", "Jurriën Timber" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.883, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0179, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "William Saliba", "role": "CB", "market_value": 94000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jurriën Timber", "role": "CB", "market_value": 73000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alejandro Garnacho (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against William Saliba and Jurriën Timber in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €84M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.018 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Johan Manzambi", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 71000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.872, "defenders": [ "Eberechi Eze" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.869, "duel_zone": "LM vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.437, "xg_contribution": 0.1597, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Eberechi Eze", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 69000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.563 } ], "duel_analysis": "Johan Manzambi (LM) is evenly matched against Eberechi Eze in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.160 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Boubacar Kamara", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 39000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.775, "defenders": [ "Martín Zubimendi" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.879, "duel_zone": "RM vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.389, "xg_contribution": 0.0515, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Martín Zubimendi", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.611 } ], "duel_analysis": "Boubacar Kamara (RM) faces tough defensive resistance against Martín Zubimendi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. The quality gap is significant (€39M vs €77M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.052 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Amadou Onana", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 41000000, "attacker_height": 195, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.786, "defenders": [ "Martin Ødegaard" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.879, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.438, "xg_contribution": 0.1557, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Martin Ødegaard", "role": "CM", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.562 } ], "duel_analysis": "Amadou Onana (CM) is evenly matched against Martin Ødegaard in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. The quality gap is significant (€41M vs €77M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.156 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Bukayo Saka", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 115000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.897, "defenders": [ "Ian Maatsen", "Pau Torres" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.671, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.273, "xg_contribution": 0.0013, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ian Maatsen", "role": "CB", "market_value": 28000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.727 }, { "player": "Pau Torres", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.727 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bukayo Saka (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ian Maatsen and Pau Torres in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 27%. The quality gap is significant (€115M vs €24M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.001 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Martín Zubimendi", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 77000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.879, "defenders": [ "Matteo Ruggeri" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.694, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.455, "xg_contribution": 0.1237, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 3.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Matteo Ruggeri", "role": "RB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.545 } ], "duel_analysis": "Martín Zubimendi (LWB) is evenly matched against Matteo Ruggeri in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. The quality gap is significant (€77M vs €27M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.124 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Eberechi Eze", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 69000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.869, "defenders": [ "Ezri Konsa" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.813, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.405, "xg_contribution": 0.0506, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 3.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ezri Konsa", "role": "LB", "market_value": 47000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.595 } ], "duel_analysis": "Eberechi Eze (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Ezri Konsa in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. The quality gap is significant (€69M vs €47M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.051 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Martin Ødegaard", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 77000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.879, "defenders": [ "Amadou Onana" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.786, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.402, "xg_contribution": 0.061, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Amadou Onana", "role": "CM", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.598 } ], "duel_analysis": "Martin Ødegaard (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Amadou Onana in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. The quality gap is significant (€77M vs €41M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.061 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Declan Rice", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 114000000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.897, "defenders": [ "Amadou Onana" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.786, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.422, "xg_contribution": 0.0838, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Amadou Onana", "role": "CM", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.578 } ], "duel_analysis": "Declan Rice (CDM) is evenly matched against Amadou Onana in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. The quality gap is significant (€114M vs €41M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.084 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.823, "away_midfield_power": 0.93, "home_creative_power": 0.664, "away_creative_power": 0.959, "home_defensive_power": 0.8, "away_defensive_power": 0.747, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.47, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Johan Manzambi", "Amadou Onana", "Boubacar Kamara", "João Gomes" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Declan Rice", "Martin Ødegaard", "Martín Zubimendi", "Bruno Guimarães", "Eberechi Eze" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.7, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.3, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.7, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.5, "away_key_passes_projected": 7.3, "home_throughball_threat": 2.6, "away_throughball_threat": 3.5, "key_personal_duel": "Johan Manzambi vs Declan Rice", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.989, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.013 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.01, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 1.44, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "LM vs RWB", "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Alejandro Garnacho": { "opponents": [ "William Saliba", "Jurriën Timber" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Johan Manzambi": { "opponents": [ "Eberechi Eze", "Bruno Guimarães" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Boubacar Kamara": { "opponents": [ "Martín Zubimendi" ], "primary_zone": "RM vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Amadou Onana": { "opponents": [ "Martin Ødegaard", "Declan Rice", "Eberechi Eze" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ian Maatsen": { "opponents": [ "Bukayo Saka" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pau Torres": { "opponents": [ "Bukayo Saka" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Matteo Ruggeri": { "opponents": [ "Martín Zubimendi" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ezri Konsa": { "opponents": [ "Eberechi Eze" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "João Gomes": { "opponents": [ "Martin Ødegaard" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Zion Suzuki": { "opponents": [ "Viktor Gyökeres", "Bukayo Saka" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Ollie Watkins": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Magalhães", "William Saliba" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "William Saliba": { "opponents": [ "Alejandro Garnacho" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jurriën Timber": { "opponents": [ "Alejandro Garnacho" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Eberechi Eze": { "opponents": [ "Johan Manzambi", "Ezri Konsa", "Amadou Onana" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs RWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Martín Zubimendi": { "opponents": [ "Boubacar Kamara", "Matteo Ruggeri" ], "primary_zone": "RM vs LWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Martin Ødegaard": { "opponents": [ "Amadou Onana", "João Gomes" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Bukayo Saka": { "opponents": [ "Ian Maatsen", "Pau Torres" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Declan Rice": { "opponents": [ "Amadou Onana" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Bruno Guimarães": { "opponents": [ "Johan Manzambi" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "David Raya": { "opponents": [ "Ollie Watkins", "Alejandro Garnacho" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Gabriel Magalhães": { "opponents": [ "Ollie Watkins" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Viktor Gyökeres": { "opponents": [ "Ezri Konsa", "Ian Maatsen" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Johan Manzambi vs Declan Rice will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.38, Away: 0.32. Home danger zone: LM vs RWB. Away danger zone: Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8871, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8928, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.1293, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8684, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9152, "home_midfield_factor": 0.989, "away_midfield_factor": 1.013, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.7413, "away_avg_quality": 0.8786, "avg_quality_gap": -0.1372, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.8049, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.6911, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.8711, "elite_count_gap": -7, "combined_quality_gap": -0.3202, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.7044, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.4482, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0579, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1784, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.3202, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.0851, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.978, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 0.708, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 1.327, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.692, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.44, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.7079, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.3274, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.02, "final_away_lambda": 1.44 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 3, "opponent_position": 2, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 2, "opponent_position": 3, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-08-29T13:30:40Z" }