{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Atl. Madrid", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260829", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "5-3-2", "away_formation": "3-5-2" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "0-1", "home_goals": 0, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1452, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Atl. Madrid", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2052, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1452 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.1412 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.0952 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0918 }, { "score": "0-3", "probability": 0.0912 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0756, "0-1": 0.1452, "0-2": 0.1412, "0-3": 0.0912, "0-4": 0.0442, "0-5": 0.0171, "0-6": 0.0055, "0-7": 0.0015, "1-0": 0.0484, "1-1": 0.0952, "1-2": 0.0918, "1-3": 0.0593, "1-4": 0.0287, "1-5": 0.0111, "1-6": 0.0036, "1-7": 0.001, "2-0": 0.0159, "2-1": 0.0308, "2-2": 0.0298, "2-3": 0.0193, "2-4": 0.0093, "2-5": 0.0036, "2-6": 0.0012, "3-0": 0.0034, "3-1": 0.0067, "3-2": 0.0065, "3-3": 0.0042, "3-4": 0.002, "3-5": 0.0008, "4-0": 0.0006, "4-1": 0.0011, "4-2": 0.001, "4-3": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.1155, "draw": 0.2052, "away_win": 0.6793 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4785, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5215, "btts_yes": 0.4096, "btts_no": 0.5904, "home_clean_sheet": 0.144, "away_clean_sheet": 0.522 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 79.52, "MCR": 82.87, "ATR": 78.88, "GK": 78.7 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 90.13, "MCR": 89.1, "ATR": 92.58, "GK": 95.21 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Sevilla vs Atl. Madrid. Most likely scoreline: 0-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 6 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Morten Hjulmand", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 5-3-2 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Lucien Agoumé vs Pablo Barrios). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.44, Away: 0.95. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel." }, "confidence": 0.79, "home_lambda": 0.65, "away_lambda": 1.938 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.1155, "draw": 0.2052, "away_win": 0.6793 }, "favorite": "Atl. Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.6793, "fair_spread": -1.288, "fair_total": 2.588, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Sevilla", "estimate": 0.65, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Atl. Madrid", "estimate": 1.938, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4785, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4096, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Sevilla", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.144, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Atl. Madrid", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.522, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Kike Salas (Sevilla)", "estimate": 0.1957, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Marc Pubill (Atl. Madrid)", "estimate": 0.3481, "probability": 0.0867, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "José Ángel Carmona (Sevilla)", "estimate": 0.1882, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Alex Baena (Atl. Madrid)", "estimate": 0.1403, "probability": 0.2597, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.588, "expected_total_shots": 22, "expected_total_passes": 747, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.1, "possession_home_pct": 46.8, "possession_away_pct": 53.2, "notes": "Atl. Madrid projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Atl. Madrid", "favorite_win_probability": 0.6793, "script": "Atl. Madrid is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread -1.29 goals and fair total 2.59.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 11 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Sevilla must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Atl. Madrid lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Atl. Madrid chance creation leans on Pablo Barrios against Lucien Agoumé in Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel; Atl. Madrid projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Sevilla: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Juanlu Sánchez, Akor Adams, Neal Maupay.", "Atl. Madrid: starters carry the main goal usage through Morten Hjulmand; bench watchlist: Nicolás González, Alexander Sørloth, Antoine Griezmann.", "Assist usage should flow through Alex Baena; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Atl. Madrid tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 11 total first-half shots, and 1.29 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Sevilla is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Atl. Madrid.", "Sevilla wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Sevilla": { "formation": "5-3-2", "players": { "Odysseas Vlachodimos": { "player_id": 138149, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 191, "market_value": 3200000, "stats": { "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.2055, "rating": 78.6955, "minutes": 88, "total_pass": 27, "accurate_pass": 19, "total_long_balls": 14, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 34, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 1.9639, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 8.1013, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 16, "accurate_own_half_passes": 14, "expected_saves": 2.0, "high_pressure_saves": 0.76, "shots_faced": 4.3, "opponent_faced": "Pablo Barrios, Ademola Lookman", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416301, "match_date": "2026-08-22 15:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Athletic Club", "away_team": "Sevilla", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 3.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Athletic Club", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 16421052, "match_date": "2026-08-15", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 16, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 11, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.7724 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" }, { "match_id": 14083702, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Sevilla", "away_team": "Real Madrid", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Real Madrid", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0016, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 18, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.5694 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083644, "match_date": "2026-05-13", "home_team": "Villarreal", "away_team": "Sevilla", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Sevilla", "opponent": "Villarreal", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 21, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": -0.3203 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13233689, "match_date": "2025-11-18", "home_team": "Belarus", "away_team": "Greece", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Greece", "opponent": "Belarus", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 30, "ball_recovery": 7, "saves": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. 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"shirt_number": 22, "height": 183, "market_value": 11100000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 87.9887, "minutes": 84, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 31, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 4, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "total_own_half_passes": 14, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 19, "crosses_total": 4, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 54, "possession_lost": 9.0953, "dispossessed": 1.0106, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.1882, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 18, "total_progression": 133, "progressive_carries": 4, "key_pass": 2, "tackles_in_zone": 2.0, 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"Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 81, "rating": 8.2, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.5601, "expected_assists": 0.0307, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 34, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 2009, "combined_rank_score": 286.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 455.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.92, "sofascore_appearances": 15.0, "fifa_rank": 117.0, "fifa_overall": 85.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.8622, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Antoine Griezmann", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Maata Magassa", "ranking": 2004 }, { "player_name": "M'Baye Niang", "ranking": 2005 }, { "player_name": "Tsiki Ntsabeleng", "ranking": 2006 }, { "player_name": "Hevertton Santos", "ranking": 2007 }, { "player_name": "Jesper Uneken", "ranking": 2008 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Hazem Mastouri", "ranking": 2010 }, { "player_name": "Stefan Milić", "ranking": 2011 }, { "player_name": "Sherel Constancio Floranus", "ranking": 2012 }, { "player_name": "Ronaldo Pájaro", "ranking": 2013 }, { "player_name": "Sebastian Hausner", "ranking": 2014 } ] } } }, "Nicolás González": { "player_id": 901325, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 23, "height": 180, "market_value": 25000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0117, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0404, "rating": 89.5097, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 2, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 1, "accurate_own_half_passes": 1, "total_opp_half_passes": 8, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 7, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 15, "possession_lost": 3.4871, "dispossessed": 1.0532, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 2, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0349, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.542, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.92, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.585, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 12812996, "match_date": "2026-07-15", "home_team": "England", "away_team": "Argentina", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Argentina", "opponent": "England", "stats": { "minutes": 26, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.14, "expected_assists": 0.0332, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 12812993, "match_date": "2026-07-07", "home_team": "Argentina", "away_team": "Egypt", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Argentina", "opponent": "Egypt", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2346, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 8, "key_pass": 2, "interceptions": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186502, "match_date": "2026-06-22", "home_team": "Argentina", "away_team": "Austria", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Argentina", "opponent": "Austria", "stats": { "minutes": 25, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2824, "expected_assists": 0.0023, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 4, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186854, "match_date": "2026-06-17", "home_team": "Argentina", "away_team": "Algeria", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Argentina", "opponent": "Algeria", "stats": { "minutes": 35, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0254, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 11, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15632089, "match_date": "2026-04-14", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 24, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0907, "expected_assists": 0.0051, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 5, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632085, "match_date": "2026-04-08", "home_team": "FC Barcelona", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 10, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0079, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631370, "match_date": "2026-03-18", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Atlético Madrid", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 12, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 2, "accurate_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631356, "match_date": "2026-03-10", "home_team": "Atlético Madrid", "away_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Atlético Madrid", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 17, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0032, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14169218, "match_date": "2025-09-09", "home_team": "Ecuador", "away_team": "Argentina", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Argentina", "opponent": "Ecuador", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 12, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14169215, "match_date": "2025-09-04", "home_team": "Argentina", "away_team": "Venezuela", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Argentina", "opponent": "Venezuela", "stats": { "minutes": 27, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 1, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 10, "key_pass": 1, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. CONMEBOL", "league_id": "295", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-conmebol", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "53820", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, CONMEBOL 2025", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 14665, "combined_rank_score": 397.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 479.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8958, "sofascore_appearances": 24.0, "fifa_rank": 316.0, "fifa_overall": 82.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.5097, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Nicolás González", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Uk-hyeon Hong", "ranking": 14660 }, { "player_name": "Nurbek Sarsenbaev", "ranking": 14661 }, { "player_name": "Benjamin Moreno", "ranking": 14662 }, { "player_name": "Vicente Villegas", "ranking": 14663 }, { "player_name": "Diyorbek Mamataliev", "ranking": 14664 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Alejandro Francés", "ranking": 14666 }, { "player_name": "Joelinton", "ranking": 14667 }, { "player_name": "Đorđe Petrović", "ranking": 14668 }, { "player_name": "Giorgi Mamardashvili", "ranking": 14669 }, { "player_name": "Cristhian Mosquera", "ranking": 14670 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.94, "expected_assists": 0.75, "total_shots": 14, "shots_on_target": 11, "total_passes": 434, "interceptions": 12, "tackles": 19, "avg_rating": 90.57, "possession_estimated_pct": 53.2, "pressing_actions_per_90": 9.1 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "José Ángel Carmona", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 11100000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.535, "defenders": [ "Kang-in Lee" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.718, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.378, "xg_contribution": 0.0782, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kang-in Lee", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 30000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.622 } ], "duel_analysis": "José Ángel Carmona (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Kang-in Lee in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. The quality gap is significant (€11M vs €30M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.078 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Gabriel Suazo", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 6600000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.482, "defenders": [ "Alex Baena" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.796, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.295, "xg_contribution": 0.0636, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alex Baena", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 43000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.705 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gabriel Suazo (RWB) is heavily outmatched defensively against Alex Baena in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€7M vs €43M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.064 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Oso", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 10500000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.528, "defenders": [ "Morten Hjulmand" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.817, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.312, "xg_contribution": 0.0912, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Morten Hjulmand", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.688 } ], "duel_analysis": "Oso (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Morten Hjulmand in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€10M vs €48M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.091 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Rubén Vargas", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 13900000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.567, "defenders": [ "Morten Hjulmand" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.817, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.314, "xg_contribution": 0.1109, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Morten Hjulmand", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.686 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rubén Vargas (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Morten Hjulmand in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€14M vs €48M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.111 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Isaac Romero", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 5200000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.465, "defenders": [ "Cristian Romero", "Dávid Hancko" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.784, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0385, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Cristian Romero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Dávid Hancko", "role": "CB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Isaac Romero (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Cristian Romero and Dávid Hancko in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €41M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.038 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Robbie Ure", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 4800000, "attacker_height": 189, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.46, "defenders": [ "Cristian Romero", "Dávid Hancko" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.784, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0532, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Cristian Romero", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Dávid Hancko", "role": "CB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Robbie Ure (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Cristian Romero and Dávid Hancko in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€5M vs €41M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.053 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Alex Baena", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 43000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.796, "defenders": [ "Gabriel Suazo" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.482, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.545, "xg_contribution": 0.1554, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gabriel Suazo", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 6600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.455 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alex Baena (LWB) is slightly favored against Gabriel Suazo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 55%. The quality gap is significant (€43M vs €7M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.155 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Giuliano Simeone", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Lucien Agoumé" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.585, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.499, "xg_contribution": 0.1715, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.3, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lucien Agoumé", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.501 } ], "duel_analysis": "Giuliano Simeone (CM) is evenly matched against Lucien Agoumé in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 50%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €16M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.172 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Pablo Barrios", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 60000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.853, "defenders": [ "Lucien Agoumé" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.585, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.555, "xg_contribution": 0.1929, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lucien Agoumé", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.445 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pablo Barrios (CM) is slightly favored against Lucien Agoumé in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 55%. The quality gap is significant (€60M vs €16M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.193 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Kang-in Lee", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 30000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.718, "defenders": [ "José Ángel Carmona" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.535, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.462, "xg_contribution": 0.1078, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "José Ángel Carmona", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 11100000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.538 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kang-in Lee (RWB) is evenly matched against José Ángel Carmona in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 46%. The quality gap is significant (€30M vs €11M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.108 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Julián Alvarez", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 116000000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.897, "defenders": [ "Kike Salas", "Arouna Sangante" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.539, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.301, "xg_contribution": 0.1383, "shots_in_zone": 2.5, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kike Salas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.699 }, { "player": "Arouna Sangante", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.699 } ], "duel_analysis": "Julián Alvarez (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Kike Salas and Arouna Sangante in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€116M vs €12M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.138 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Ademola Lookman", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Kike Salas", "Arouna Sangante" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.539, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.263, "xg_contribution": 0.1871, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kike Salas", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.737 }, { "player": "Arouna Sangante", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.737 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ademola Lookman (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Kike Salas and Arouna Sangante in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €12M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.187 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.56, "away_midfield_power": 0.847, "home_creative_power": 0.466, "away_creative_power": 0.762, "home_defensive_power": 0.534, "away_defensive_power": 0.863, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.398, "home_midfield_count": 3, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Lucien Agoumé", "Rubén Vargas", "Oso" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Pablo Barrios", "Morten Hjulmand", "Giuliano Simeone", "Alex Baena", "Kang-in Lee" ], "possession_advantage": "away", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 46.8, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 53.2, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.0, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 9.1, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.3, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.1, "home_throughball_threat": 2.0, "away_throughball_threat": 2.9, "key_personal_duel": "Lucien Agoumé vs Pablo Barrios", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.957, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.035 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "5-3-2", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.0, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 5-3-2 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 0.65, "away_lambda": 1.938, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "José Ángel Carmona": { "opponents": [ "Kang-in Lee" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel" }, "Gabriel Suazo": { "opponents": [ "Alex Baena" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel" }, "Oso": { "opponents": [ "Morten Hjulmand", "Giuliano Simeone", "Kang-in Lee" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Rubén Vargas": { "opponents": [ "Morten Hjulmand", "Pablo Barrios" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Isaac Romero": { "opponents": [ "Cristian Romero", "Dávid Hancko" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Robbie Ure": { "opponents": [ "Cristian Romero", "Dávid Hancko" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Lucien Agoumé": { "opponents": [ "Giuliano Simeone", "Pablo Barrios", "Morten Hjulmand", "Alex Baena" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Kike Salas": { "opponents": [ "Julián Alvarez", "Ademola Lookman" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Arouna Sangante": { "opponents": [ "Julián Alvarez", "Ademola Lookman" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Odysseas Vlachodimos": { "opponents": [ "Julián Alvarez", "Ademola Lookman" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Andres Castrin": { "opponents": [ "Julián Alvarez" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Kang-in Lee": { "opponents": [ "José Ángel Carmona", "Oso" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alex Baena": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Suazo", "Lucien Agoumé" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Morten Hjulmand": { "opponents": [ "Oso", "Rubén Vargas", "Lucien Agoumé" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Cristian Romero": { "opponents": [ "Isaac Romero", "Robbie Ure" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dávid Hancko": { "opponents": [ "Isaac Romero", "Robbie Ure" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Giuliano Simeone": { "opponents": [ "Lucien Agoumé", "Oso" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pablo Barrios": { "opponents": [ "Lucien Agoumé", "Rubén Vargas" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Julián Alvarez": { "opponents": [ "Kike Salas", "Arouna Sangante" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ademola Lookman": { "opponents": [ "Kike Salas", "Arouna Sangante" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Jan Oblak": { "opponents": [ "Isaac Romero", "Robbie Ure" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Marc Pubill": { "opponents": [ "Isaac Romero" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Away midfield dictates play with ~53% possession expected (Lucien Agoumé vs Pablo Barrios). Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.44, Away: 0.95. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9481, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0096, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.134, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1187, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8987, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9598, "home_midfield_factor": 0.957, "away_midfield_factor": 1.035, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.5181, "away_avg_quality": 0.7986, "avg_quality_gap": -0.2806, "squad_value_gap_log": -1.5597, "top5_value_gap_log": -1.4448, "attack_value_gap_log": -1.8862, "elite_count_gap": -7, "combined_quality_gap": -0.5669, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.95, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.6, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0314, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0744, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": -0.5669, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1467, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9533, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 0.681, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 1.69, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.6814, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.6904, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 0.65, "final_away_lambda": 1.938 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 4, "opponent_position": 3, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9313, "attack_index": 0.836, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 3.0, "opponent_ppg": 3.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 3, "opponent_position": 4, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.6728, "attack_index": 0.836, "defense_concede_index": 0.418, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.5, "team_ppg": 3.0, "opponent_ppg": 3.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-08-29T13:31:44Z" }