{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Espanyol", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260829", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1311, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": null, "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.28, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1311 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1263 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0984 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0981 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0852 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0984, "0-1": 0.0981, "0-2": 0.0506, "0-3": 0.0172, "0-4": 0.0044, "0-5": 0.0009, "1-0": 0.1263, "1-1": 0.1311, "1-2": 0.0663, "1-3": 0.0225, "1-4": 0.0057, "1-5": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.0835, "2-1": 0.0852, "2-2": 0.0434, "2-3": 0.0148, "2-4": 0.0038, "2-5": 0.0008, "3-0": 0.0365, "3-1": 0.0372, "3-2": 0.019, "3-3": 0.0064, "3-4": 0.0016, "4-0": 0.0119, "4-1": 0.0122, "4-2": 0.0062, "4-3": 0.0021, "4-4": 0.0005, "5-0": 0.0031, "5-1": 0.0032, "5-2": 0.0016, "5-3": 0.0006, "6-0": 0.0007, "6-1": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.431, "draw": 0.28, "away_win": 0.289 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4119, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5881, "btts_yes": 0.468, "btts_no": 0.532, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3606, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2698 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 81.61, "MCR": 85.53, "ATR": 88.37, "GK": 89.62 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 82.66, "MCR": 79.7, "ATR": 77.11, "GK": 86.5 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Real Sociedad vs Espanyol. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Orri Óskarsson, Roberto Fernández", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Jon Gorrotxategi vs Urko González will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.62, Away: 0.81. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank." }, "confidence": 0.72, "home_lambda": 1.31, "away_lambda": 1.02 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.431, "draw": 0.28, "away_win": 0.289 }, "favorite": "Real Sociedad", "favorite_win_probability": 0.431, "fair_spread": 0.29, "fair_total": 2.33, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Real Sociedad", "estimate": 1.31, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Espanyol", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4119, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.468, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Real Sociedad", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Espanyol", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2698, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Orri Óskarsson (Real Sociedad)", "estimate": 0.676, "probability": 0.5029, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Tyrhys Dolan (Espanyol)", "estimate": 0.5056, "probability": 0.3086, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Sergio Gómez (Real Sociedad)", "estimate": 0.2249, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Tyrhys Dolan (Espanyol)", "estimate": 0.3141, "probability": 0.3778, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.33, "expected_total_shots": 24, "expected_total_passes": 662, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 14.1, "possession_home_pct": 51.4, "possession_away_pct": 48.6, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Real Sociedad", "favorite_win_probability": 0.431, "script": "Real Sociedad is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.29 goals and fair total 2.33.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Espanyol must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Real Sociedad lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Espanyol chance creation leans on Tyrhys Dolan against Beñat Turrientes in Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Real Sociedad: starters carry the main goal usage through Orri Óskarsson; bench watchlist: Gorka Carrera Zarranz, Jon Karrikaburu.", "Espanyol: starters carry the main goal usage through Roberto Fernández; bench watchlist: Cyril Ngonge, Marcos Fernández.", "Assist usage should flow through Tyrhys Dolan; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Real Sociedad tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.17 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Espanyol is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Real Sociedad.", "Espanyol wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Real Sociedad": { "formation": "3-5-2", "players": { "Álex Remiro": { "player_id": 791773, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 191, "market_value": 9600000, "stats": { "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 89.617, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 26, "total_long_balls": 25, "accurate_long_balls": 11, "touches": 54, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 9, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 2.0106, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 14.5772, 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"ranking": 21640 } ] } } }, "Cyril Ngonge": { "player_id": 877037, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 179, "market_value": 7800000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.106, "goal_rate": 0.0454, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 78.9, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.4107, "dispossessed": 1.1, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "key_pass": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0536, "offsides": 1, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 14, "progressive_carries": 1, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.569, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.53, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.471, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 18978, "combined_rank_score": 2453.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 872.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6333, "sofascore_appearances": 9.0, "fifa_rank": 4034.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Cyril Ngonge", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Rafael Delgado", "ranking": 18973 }, { "player_name": "Liam Millar", "ranking": 18974 }, { "player_name": "Damián Batallini", "ranking": 18975 }, { "player_name": "Luca Langoni", "ranking": 18976 }, { "player_name": "Mattéo Tramoni", "ranking": 18977 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Reinhold Ranftl", "ranking": 18979 }, { "player_name": "Maher Carrizo", "ranking": 18980 }, { "player_name": "Leonidas Stergiou", "ranking": 18981 }, { "player_name": "Iker Losada", "ranking": 18982 }, { "player_name": "Samuel Sahin-Radlinger", "ranking": 18983 } ] } } }, "Marcos Fernández": { "player_id": 1183542, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 176, "market_value": 1500000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0363, "goal_rate": 0.0001, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 5.932, "minutes": 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"substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421053, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0961, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 5.932, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Marcos Fernández", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } } }, "substitutes": { "Cyril Ngonge": { "player_id": 877037, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 16, "height": 179, "market_value": 7800000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.106, "goal_rate": 0.0454, "goals": 0, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0252, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 78.9, "minutes": 26, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 12, "possession_lost": 2.4107, "dispossessed": 1.1, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, 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9.0, "fifa_rank": 4034.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 7, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.9, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Cyril Ngonge", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Rafael Delgado", "ranking": 18973 }, { "player_name": "Liam Millar", "ranking": 18974 }, { "player_name": "Damián Batallini", "ranking": 18975 }, { "player_name": "Luca Langoni", "ranking": 18976 }, { "player_name": "Mattéo Tramoni", "ranking": 18977 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Reinhold Ranftl", "ranking": 18979 }, { "player_name": "Maher Carrizo", "ranking": 18980 }, { "player_name": "Leonidas Stergiou", "ranking": 18981 }, { "player_name": "Iker Losada", "ranking": 18982 }, { "player_name": "Samuel Sahin-Radlinger", "ranking": 18983 } ] } } }, "Marcos Fernández": { "player_id": 1183542, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 176, "market_value": 1500000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0363, "goal_rate": 0.0001, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 5.932, "minutes": 25, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 0, "possession_lost": 0.0, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 0, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.471, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 16421053, "match_date": "2026-08-16", "home_team": "Espanyol", "away_team": "Levante UD", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Espanyol", "opponent": "Levante UD", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0961, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "97268", "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 5.932, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Marcos Fernández", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.62, "total_shots": 10, "shots_on_target": 2, "total_passes": 367, "interceptions": 11, "tackles": 16, "avg_rating": 81.16, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.6, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Mikel Oyarzabal", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Quilindschy Hartman", "Vanja Drkušić" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.526, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.261, "xg_contribution": 0.306, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Quilindschy Hartman", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.739 }, { "player": "Vanja Drkušić", "role": "CB", "market_value": 5500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.739 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mikel Oyarzabal (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Quilindschy Hartman and Vanja Drkušić in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 26%. The quality gap is significant (€27M vs €10M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.306 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Luka Sučić", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 10900000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.533, "defenders": [ "Clemens Riedel" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.449, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.434, "xg_contribution": 0.047, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Clemens Riedel", "role": "RB", "market_value": 3900000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.566 } ], "duel_analysis": "Luka Sučić (LWB) is evenly matched against Clemens Riedel in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.047 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Beñat Turrientes", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 10600000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.529, "defenders": [ "Omar El Hilali" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.589, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.357, "xg_contribution": 0.0751, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Omar El Hilali", "role": "LB", "market_value": 15900000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.643 } ], "duel_analysis": "Beñat Turrientes (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Omar El Hilali in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. Projected xG contribution: 0.075 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Takefusa Kubo", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Urko González" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.541, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.435, "xg_contribution": 0.0564, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Urko González", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 11600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.565 } ], "duel_analysis": "Takefusa Kubo (CM) is evenly matched against Urko González in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.056 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Ander Barrenetxea", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 17200000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.603, "defenders": [ "Urko González" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.541, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.388, "xg_contribution": 0.1391, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Urko González", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 11600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.612 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ander Barrenetxea (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Urko González in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Projected xG contribution: 0.139 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Tyrhys Dolan", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 10800000, "attacker_height": 170, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.532, "defenders": [ "Beñat Turrientes" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.529, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.405, "xg_contribution": 0.3284, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Beñat Turrientes", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 10600000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.595 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tyrhys Dolan (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Beñat Turrientes in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Projected xG contribution: 0.328 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Pol Lozano", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 5800000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.472, "defenders": [ "Luka Sučić" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.533, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.377, "xg_contribution": 0.1874, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Luka Sučić", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 10900000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.623 } ], "duel_analysis": "Pol Lozano (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Luka Sučić in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.187 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Javi Puado", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 7000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.487, "defenders": [ "Takefusa Kubo", "Ander Barrenetxea" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.622, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM + CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.255, "xg_contribution": 0.0376, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Takefusa Kubo", "role": "CM", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.745 }, { "player": "Ander Barrenetxea", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 17200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.745 } ], "duel_analysis": "Javi Puado (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Takefusa Kubo and Ander Barrenetxea in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 26%. Projected xG contribution: 0.038 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Roberto Fernández", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 10300000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.526, "defenders": [ "Jon Martin", "Sergio Gómez" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.622, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.189, "xg_contribution": 0.198, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jon Martin", "role": "CB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.811 }, { "player": "Sergio Gómez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 14600000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.811 } ], "duel_analysis": "Roberto Fernández (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jon Martin and Sergio Gómez in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 19%. Projected xG contribution: 0.198 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Urko González", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 11600000, "attacker_height": 189, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.541, "defenders": [ "Takefusa Kubo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.415, "xg_contribution": 0.0583, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Takefusa Kubo", "role": "CM", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.585 } ], "duel_analysis": "Urko González (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Takefusa Kubo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.058 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.65, "away_midfield_power": 0.555, "home_creative_power": 0.517, "away_creative_power": 0.461, "home_defensive_power": 0.58, "away_defensive_power": 0.464, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.539, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Jon Gorrotxategi", "Takefusa Kubo", "Ander Barrenetxea", "Luka Sučić", "Beñat Turrientes" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Urko González", "Tyrhys Dolan", "Gabriel Moscardo", "Javi Puado", "Pol Lozano" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.4, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 48.6, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.4, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.7, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.6, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.3, "home_throughball_threat": 2.2, "away_throughball_threat": 2.0, "key_personal_duel": "Jon Gorrotxategi vs Urko González", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.013, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.983 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.06, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.06, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.31, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "CDM vs CDM" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Mikel Oyarzabal": { "opponents": [ "Quilindschy Hartman", "Vanja Drkušić" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Luka Sučić": { "opponents": [ "Clemens Riedel", "Pol Lozano", "Tyrhys Dolan" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Beñat Turrientes": { "opponents": [ "Omar El Hilali", "Tyrhys Dolan", "Pol Lozano" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Takefusa Kubo": { "opponents": [ "Urko González", "Javi Puado" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ander Barrenetxea": { "opponents": [ "Urko González", "Javi Puado" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jon Martin": { "opponents": [ "Roberto Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Sergio Gómez": { "opponents": [ "Roberto Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jon Gorrotxategi": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Moscardo" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Álex Remiro": { "opponents": [ "Roberto Fernández", "Gabriel Moscardo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jon Aramburu": { "opponents": [ "Roberto Fernández" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Orri Óskarsson": { "opponents": [ "Omar El Hilali", "Quilindschy Hartman" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Quilindschy Hartman": { "opponents": [ "Mikel Oyarzabal" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Vanja Drkušić": { "opponents": [ "Mikel Oyarzabal" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Clemens Riedel": { "opponents": [ "Luka Sučić" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Omar El Hilali": { "opponents": [ "Beñat Turrientes" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Urko González": { "opponents": [ "Takefusa Kubo", "Ander Barrenetxea" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Tyrhys Dolan": { "opponents": [ "Beñat Turrientes", "Luka Sučić" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Pol Lozano": { "opponents": [ "Luka Sučić", "Beñat Turrientes" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Javi Puado": { "opponents": [ "Takefusa Kubo", "Ander Barrenetxea" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM + CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Roberto Fernández": { "opponents": [ "Jon Martin", "Sergio Gómez" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Gabriel Moscardo": { "opponents": [ "Jon Gorrotxategi" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Marko Dmitrović": { "opponents": [ "Orri Óskarsson", "Mikel Oyarzabal" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Jon Gorrotxategi vs Urko González will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.62, Away: 0.81. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0227, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9777, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.031, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.068, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9823, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9598, "home_midfield_factor": 1.013, "away_midfield_factor": 0.983, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6145, "away_avg_quality": 0.5141, "avg_quality_gap": 0.1005, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.6418, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.5621, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.8315, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1846, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.406, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.2584, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.036, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1007, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.31, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.91, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.31, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.9097, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.31, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 16, "opponent_position": 2, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.9881, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 0.94, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 3.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 2, "opponent_position": 16, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.1076, "attack_index": 1.254, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.06, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 1.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 3.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-08-29T13:31:41Z" }