{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Bournemouth", "away_team": "Everton", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260829", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1366, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": null, "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.3071, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1366 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1313 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1307 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1306 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0693 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1307, "0-1": 0.1306, "0-2": 0.0673, "0-3": 0.0229, "0-4": 0.0058, "0-5": 0.0012, "1-0": 0.1313, "1-1": 0.1366, "1-2": 0.069, "1-3": 0.0235, "1-4": 0.006, "1-5": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.068, "2-1": 0.0693, "2-2": 0.0354, "2-3": 0.012, "2-4": 0.0031, "2-5": 0.0006, "3-0": 0.0232, "3-1": 0.0237, "3-2": 0.0121, "3-3": 0.0041, "3-4": 0.001, "4-0": 0.006, "4-1": 0.0061, "4-2": 0.0031, "4-3": 0.0011, "5-0": 0.0012, "5-1": 0.0012, "5-2": 0.0006 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3478, "draw": 0.3071, "away_win": 0.3452 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3355, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6645, "btts_yes": 0.4113, "btts_no": 0.5887, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3606, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3588 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 83.65, "MCR": 85.63, "ATR": 84.35, "GK": 87.18 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 84.41, "MCR": 83.64, "ATR": 82.56, "GK": 90.58 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Bournemouth vs Everton. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 6 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Rayan, Jake O'Brien", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Rayan vs Iliman Ndiaye will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.58, Away: 0.73. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.69, "home_lambda": 1.025, "away_lambda": 1.02 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3478, "draw": 0.3071, "away_win": 0.3452 }, "favorite": "Bournemouth", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3478, "fair_spread": 0.005, "fair_total": 2.045, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Bournemouth", "estimate": 1.025, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Everton", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3355, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4113, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Bournemouth", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Everton", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3588, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "António Silva (Bournemouth)", "estimate": 0.4451, "probability": 0.1512, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Jake O'Brien (Everton)", "estimate": 0.4188, "probability": 0.1961, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Adrien Truffert (Bournemouth)", "estimate": 0.1273, "probability": 0.1228, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "James Garner (Everton)", "estimate": 0.2399, "probability": 0.3415, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.045, "expected_total_shots": 26, "expected_total_passes": 799, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.3, "possession_home_pct": 49.9, "possession_away_pct": 50.1, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Bournemouth", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3478, "script": "Bournemouth is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.01 goals and fair total 2.04.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 13 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Everton must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Bournemouth lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Everton chance creation leans on Thierno Barry against António Silva, Bafodé Diakité in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Bournemouth: starters carry the main goal usage through Rayan; bench watchlist: Marcus Tavernier, Amine Adli, Álvaro Rodriguez.", "Everton: starters carry the main goal usage through Jake O'Brien; bench watchlist: Jack Grealish, Dwight McNeil, Beto.", "Assist usage should flow through Justin Kluivert, James Garner; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Bournemouth tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 13 total first-half shots, and 1.02 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Everton is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Bournemouth.", "Everton wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Bournemouth": { "formation": "4-4-2", "players": { "Đorđe Petrović": { "player_id": 882604, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 194, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.3424, "rating": 87.1766, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 18, "total_long_balls": 10, "accurate_long_balls": 2, "touches": 38, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 10, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 2.126, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 8.504, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 17, "expected_saves": 1.53, "high_pressure_saves": 0.58, "shots_faced": 3.3, "opponent_faced": "Thierno Barry, Brennan Johnson", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363243, "match_date": "2026-08-23 13:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Man 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0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 1, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 4, "possession_lost": 1.8133, "dispossessed": 3.1267, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 5, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 1, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0876, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.595, "bench_expected_minutes": 26.1, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.534, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023967, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Tottenham Hotspur", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Tottenham Hotspur", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023955, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 73, "rating": 6.3, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2107, "expected_assists": 0.0006, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 5, "accurate_pass": 3, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023937, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Crystal Palace", "away_team": "Everton", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Crystal Palace", "stats": { "minutes": 70, "rating": 7.5, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2855, "expected_assists": 0.007, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 17556, "combined_rank_score": 1380.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 893.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6194, "sofascore_appearances": 37.0, "fifa_rank": 1868.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.7592, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Beto", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Eliesse Ben Seghir", "ranking": 17551 }, { "player_name": "Cadu", "ranking": 17552 }, { "player_name": "Qazim Laci", "ranking": 17553 }, { "player_name": "Yukinari Sugawara", "ranking": 17554 }, { "player_name": "Filip Jörgensen", "ranking": 17555 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Seiya Maikuma", "ranking": 17557 }, { "player_name": "Abdallah Sima", "ranking": 17558 }, { "player_name": "Marek Rodák", "ranking": 17559 }, { "player_name": "Agustín Bouzat", "ranking": 17560 }, { "player_name": "Simon Mignolet", "ranking": 17561 } ] } } }, "Jack Grealish": { "player_id": 189061, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 180, "market_value": 26000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0269, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0098, "rating": 87.1791, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.543, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.96, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.534, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 7332, "combined_rank_score": 420.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 183.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.23, "sofascore_appearances": 20.0, "fifa_rank": 657.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.1791, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jack Grealish", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Keny Bonilla", "ranking": 7327 }, { "player_name": "Derick Edmund", "ranking": 7328 }, { "player_name": "Mahmoud Khudair Aouda", "ranking": 7329 }, { "player_name": "Jun-Young Byun", "ranking": 7330 }, { "player_name": "Yeison Ortega", "ranking": 7331 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Antonio Sivera", "ranking": 7333 }, { "player_name": "Nicola Pérez", "ranking": 7334 }, { "player_name": "Jun-seo Park", "ranking": 7335 }, { "player_name": "Chang-woo Park", "ranking": 7336 }, { "player_name": "Ronan", "ranking": 7337 } ] } } }, "Dwight McNeil": { "player_id": 935543, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 7, "height": 183, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0264, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0096, "rating": 85.0872, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.534, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363635, "match_date": "2026-08-22 14:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Crystal Palace", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Crystal Palace", "opponent": "Everton", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 14023955, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Everton", "away_team": "Sunderland", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Everton", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 9, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0018, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 16445, "combined_rank_score": 993.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 881.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6273, "sofascore_appearances": 22.0, "fifa_rank": 1106.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.0872, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Dwight McNeil", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Gabriel Pec", "ranking": 16440 }, { "player_name": "Lewis Dunk", "ranking": 16441 }, { "player_name": "Pedro", "ranking": 16442 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Torró", "ranking": 16443 }, { "player_name": "Diego López", "ranking": 16444 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jamie Gittens", "ranking": 16446 }, { "player_name": "Ethan Ampadu", "ranking": 16447 }, { "player_name": "Ross Barkley", "ranking": 16448 }, { "player_name": "Farrukhjon Kodirov", "ranking": 16449 }, { "player_name": "Seung-min Moon", "ranking": 16450 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.92, "total_shots": 11, "shots_on_target": 4, "total_passes": 375, "interceptions": 5, "tackles": 12, "avg_rating": 84.19, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.1 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Rayan", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 58000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.848, "defenders": [ "Jarrad Branthwaite" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.786, "duel_zone": "LM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.408, "xg_contribution": 0.0503, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 2.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "role": "CB", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.592 } ], "duel_analysis": "Rayan (LM) faces tough defensive resistance against Jarrad Branthwaite in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. The quality gap is significant (€58M vs €41M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.050 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Alex Scott", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 53000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.834, "defenders": [ "James Garner" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.817, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.412, "xg_contribution": 0.1564, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James Garner", "role": "CM", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.588 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alex Scott (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against James Garner in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Projected xG contribution: 0.156 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Tyler Adams", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "James Garner" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.817, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.333, "xg_contribution": 0.12, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James Garner", "role": "CM", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.667 } ], "duel_analysis": "Tyler Adams (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against James Garner in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 33%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €48M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.120 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Justin Kluivert", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Jarrad Branthwaite" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.786, "duel_zone": "RM vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.307, "xg_contribution": 0.0437, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "role": "CB", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.693 } ], "duel_analysis": "Justin Kluivert (RM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jarrad Branthwaite in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€24M vs €41M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.044 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Eli Junior Kroupi", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 72000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.873, "defenders": [ "Jarrad Branthwaite", "Vitaliy Mykolenko" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.736, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.228, "xg_contribution": 0.1193, "shots_in_zone": 2.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "role": "CB", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.772 }, { "player": "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.772 } ], "duel_analysis": "Eli Junior Kroupi (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jarrad Branthwaite and Vitaliy Mykolenko in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%. The quality gap is significant (€72M vs €34M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.119 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Evanilson", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 33000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.739, "defenders": [ "Jarrad Branthwaite", "Vitaliy Mykolenko" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.736, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0913, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jarrad Branthwaite", "role": "CB", "market_value": 41000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Vitaliy Mykolenko", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Evanilson (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jarrad Branthwaite and Vitaliy Mykolenko in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.091 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Thierno Barry", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 195, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "António Silva", "Bafodé Diakité" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.677, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.264, "xg_contribution": 0.3304, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "António Silva", "role": "CB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736 }, { "player": "Bafodé Diakité", "role": "CB", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.736 } ], "duel_analysis": "Thierno Barry (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against António Silva and Bafodé Diakité in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 26%. Projected xG contribution: 0.330 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Brennan Johnson", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 32000000, "attacker_height": 186, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.732, "defenders": [ "António Silva", "Alex Scott" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.764, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.28, "xg_contribution": 0.2286, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "António Silva", "role": "CB", "market_value": 27000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.72 }, { "player": "Alex Scott", "role": "CM", "market_value": 53000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.72 } ], "duel_analysis": "Brennan Johnson (SS) is heavily outmatched defensively against António Silva and Alex Scott in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 28%. Projected xG contribution: 0.229 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 38000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.77, "defenders": [ "James Hill" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.422, "xg_contribution": 0.0678, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "James Hill", "role": "RB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.578 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (LWB) is evenly matched against James Hill in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.068 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Hayden Hackney", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 35000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.752, "defenders": [ "Adrien Truffert" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.702, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.43, "xg_contribution": 0.0545, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.8, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Adrien Truffert", "role": "LB", "market_value": 28000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.57 } ], "duel_analysis": "Hayden Hackney (RWB) is evenly matched against Adrien Truffert in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.054 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "James Garner", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 48000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.817, "defenders": [ "Alex Scott" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.834, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.428, "xg_contribution": 0.0458, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alex Scott", "role": "CM", "market_value": 53000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.572 } ], "duel_analysis": "James Garner (CM) is evenly matched against Alex Scott in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.046 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.784, "away_midfield_power": 0.818, "home_creative_power": 0.666, "away_creative_power": 0.793, "home_defensive_power": 0.697, "away_defensive_power": 0.674, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.489, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Rayan", "Alex Scott", "Tyler Adams", "Justin Kluivert" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Iliman Ndiaye", "James Garner", "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall", "Hayden Hackney" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.2, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.1, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.5, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.3, "home_throughball_threat": 2.6, "away_throughball_threat": 3.0, "key_personal_duel": "Rayan vs Iliman Ndiaye", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.997, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.007 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "3-4-2-1", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.04, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.04, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.025, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Rayan": { "opponents": [ "Jarrad Branthwaite", "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Alex Scott": { "opponents": [ "James Garner", "Brennan Johnson" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Tyler Adams": { "opponents": [ "James Garner", "Iliman Ndiaye" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Justin Kluivert": { "opponents": [ "Jarrad Branthwaite", "Hayden Hackney" ], "primary_zone": "RM vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Eli Junior Kroupi": { "opponents": [ "Jarrad Branthwaite", "Vitaliy Mykolenko" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Evanilson": { "opponents": [ "Jarrad Branthwaite", "Vitaliy Mykolenko" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "António Silva": { "opponents": [ "Thierno Barry", "Brennan Johnson" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Bafodé Diakité": { "opponents": [ "Thierno Barry" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "James Hill": { "opponents": [ "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Adrien Truffert": { "opponents": [ "Hayden Hackney" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Đorđe Petrović": { "opponents": [ "Tyrique George", "Brennan Johnson" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Jarrad Branthwaite": { "opponents": [ "Rayan", "Justin Kluivert", "Eli Junior Kroupi", "Evanilson" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "James Garner": { "opponents": [ "Alex Scott", "Tyler Adams" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Vitaliy Mykolenko": { "opponents": [ "Eli Junior Kroupi", "Evanilson" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Thierno Barry": { "opponents": [ "António Silva", "Bafodé Diakité" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Brennan Johnson": { "opponents": [ "António Silva", "Alex Scott" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CB + Mid Cover — Layered Defense", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall": { "opponents": [ "James Hill", "Rayan" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Hayden Hackney": { "opponents": [ "Adrien Truffert", "Justin Kluivert" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Iliman Ndiaye": { "opponents": [ "Tyler Adams" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Jordan Pickford": { "opponents": [ "Eli Junior Kroupi", "Evanilson" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jake O'Brien": { "opponents": [ "Eli Junior Kroupi" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Tyrique George": { "opponents": [ "Adrien Truffert", "James Hill" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Rayan vs Iliman Ndiaye will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.58, Away: 0.73. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9575, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8989, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0691, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9357, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9112, "home_midfield_factor": 0.997, "away_midfield_factor": 1.007, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.7373, "away_avg_quality": 0.7337, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0035, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.0727, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.1212, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.0294, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0128, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1033, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0333, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.025, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.932, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.0253, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.9323, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.025, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 1, "opponent_position": 9, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 9, "opponent_position": 1, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-08-29T13:31:01Z" }