{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Coventry", "away_team": "Hull", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260829", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1366, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": null, "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.3064, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1366 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1312 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1298 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1297 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0698 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1298, "0-1": 0.1297, "0-2": 0.0668, "0-3": 0.0227, "0-4": 0.0058, "0-5": 0.0012, "1-0": 0.1312, "1-1": 0.1366, "1-2": 0.069, "1-3": 0.0235, "1-4": 0.006, "1-5": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.0684, "2-1": 0.0698, "2-2": 0.0356, "2-3": 0.0121, "2-4": 0.0031, "2-5": 0.0006, "3-0": 0.0235, "3-1": 0.024, "3-2": 0.0122, "3-3": 0.0042, "3-4": 0.0011, "4-0": 0.0061, "4-1": 0.0062, "4-2": 0.0032, "4-3": 0.0011, "5-0": 0.0013, "5-1": 0.0013, "5-2": 0.0007 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3499, "draw": 0.3064, "away_win": 0.3437 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3374, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6626, "btts_yes": 0.4129, "btts_no": 0.5871, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3606, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3563 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 78.59, "MCR": 79.21, "ATR": 73.43, "GK": 78.97 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 73.72, "MCR": 78.23, "ATR": 80.73, "GK": 86.18 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Coventry vs Hull. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Caleb Yirenkyi, Oli McBurnie", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Jack Rudoni vs Joe Gelhardt will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.24, Away: 0.24. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.69, "home_lambda": 1.032, "away_lambda": 1.02 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3499, "draw": 0.3064, "away_win": 0.3437 }, "favorite": "Coventry", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3499, "fair_spread": 0.012, "fair_total": 2.052, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Coventry", "estimate": 1.032, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Hull", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3374, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4129, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Coventry", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Hull", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3563, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Jack Rudoni (Coventry)", "estimate": 0.2081, "probability": 0.0835, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Oli McBurnie (Hull)", "estimate": 0.3387, "probability": 0.3801, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Jack Rudoni (Coventry)", "estimate": 0.1042, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Hidemasa Morita (Hull)", "estimate": 0.1299, "probability": 0.1444, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "low", "expected_total_goals": 2.052, "expected_total_shots": 20, "expected_total_passes": 718, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 13.8, "possession_home_pct": 51.3, "possession_away_pct": 48.7, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Coventry", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3499, "script": "Coventry is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.01 goals and fair total 2.05.", "first_half": "Expect low tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 10 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Hull must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Coventry lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Coventry chance creation leans on Caleb Yirenkyi against Elliot Stroud in Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Coventry: starters carry the main goal usage through Caleb Yirenkyi; bench watchlist: Victor Torp, Loum Tchaouna, Ellis Simms.", "Hull: starters carry the main goal usage through Oli McBurnie; bench watchlist: Lucas Gourna-Douath, David Akintola.", "Assist usage should flow through Joe Gelhardt; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Coventry tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects low tempo, about 10 total first-half shots, and 1.03 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Hull is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Coventry.", "Hull wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Coventry": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "Carl Rushworth": { "player_id": 1005800, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 39, "height": 191, "market_value": 15500000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.3076, "rating": 78.9726, "minutes": 90, "expected_saves": 0.5, "high_pressure_saves": 0.19, "shots_faced": 1.1, "opponent_faced": "Oli McBurnie, Jens Hjertø-Dahl", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, 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3705.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 9, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.9726, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Carl Rushworth", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Nikolas Nartey", "ranking": 20622 }, { "player_name": "Baltazar", "ranking": 20623 }, { "player_name": "Gustavo Puerta", "ranking": 20624 }, { "player_name": "Mark O'Hara", "ranking": 20625 }, { "player_name": "Nasser Al-Dawsari", "ranking": 20626 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Alessandro Deiola", "ranking": 20628 }, { "player_name": "Alex Vigo", "ranking": 20629 }, { "player_name": "Anthony Kalik", "ranking": 20630 }, { "player_name": "José Canale", "ranking": 20631 }, { "player_name": "Nathan-Dylan Saliba", "ranking": 20632 } ] } } }, "Milan van Ewijk": { "player_id": 948723, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 27, "height": 175, "market_value": 23000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "rating": 81.0206, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 32, "tackles_in_zone": 2.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.9, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.584, "opponent_faced": "Jens Hjertø-Dahl", "pressing_zone": "LW vs CB", "matchup_zone": "LW vs CB", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0289, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363633, "match_date": "2026-08-21 19:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Arsenal", "away_team": "Coventry", "home_score_current": 3.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Coventry", "opponent": "Arsenal", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 18958, "combined_rank_score": 2440.0, "ranking_source": "fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "missing_sofascore_player_rating", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 2440.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 1, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.0206, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Milan van Ewijk", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Justo Giani", "ranking": 18953 }, { "player_name": "Patrick de Paula", "ranking": 18954 }, { "player_name": "Andrés Fernández", "ranking": 18955 }, { "player_name": "Reggie Cannon", "ranking": 18956 }, { "player_name": "Ilyas Chaira", "ranking": 18957 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Lukas Daschner", "ranking": 18959 }, { "player_name": "Alessandro Bianco", "ranking": 18960 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Bentley", "ranking": 18961 }, { "player_name": "Sota Kawasaki", "ranking": 18962 }, { "player_name": "Antonio Palumbo", "ranking": 18963 } ] } } }, "Bobby Thomas": { "player_id": 1033352, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 4, "height": 186, "market_value": 16500000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "rating": 77.8915, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 32, "opponent_faced": "Oli McBurnie", "matchup_zone": "Shape fallback", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0377, "assists": 0, 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186, "market_value": 15200000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "rating": 76.8635, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 32, "tackles_in_zone": 1.0, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.1, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Oli McBurnie", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0376, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 70.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 23107, "combined_rank_score": 5886.0, "ranking_source": "fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "missing_sofascore_player_rating", 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"is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 185, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.1042, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2081, "rating": 81.0872, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 45, "accurate_pass": 36, "ball_recovery": 3, "duels_won": 4, "total_shots": 1, "opponent_faced": "Elliot Stroud", "matchup_zone": "Midfield lane", "antagonist_source": "midfield_pairing", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0835, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 18920, "combined_rank_score": 2412.0, "ranking_source": "fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "missing_sofascore_player_rating", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 2412.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.0872, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jack Rudoni", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Niccolò Pisilli", "ranking": 18915 }, { "player_name": "Adrián Bernabé", "ranking": 18916 }, { "player_name": "Sam Byram", "ranking": 18917 }, { "player_name": "Yang Hyun-Jun", "ranking": 18918 }, { "player_name": "Anderson Santamaría", "ranking": 18919 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Isak Jansson", "ranking": 18921 }, { "player_name": "Mateo Coronel", "ranking": 18922 }, { "player_name": "Timothé Cognat", "ranking": 18923 }, { "player_name": "Jin-seob Park", "ranking": 18924 }, { "player_name": "Augusto Solari", "ranking": 18925 } ] } } }, "Caleb Yirenkyi": { "player_id": 1986794, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 36, "height": 182, "market_value": 18700000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0294, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "rating": 73.7826, "minutes": 70, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 16, "ball_recovery": 4, "duels_won": 4, "total_shots": 2, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 8, "accurate_own_half_passes": 8, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 9, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 27, "possession_lost": 6.5543, "dispossessed": 1.0354, "duels_lost": 6, "aerial_won": 1, "aerial_lost": 3, "interceptions": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 2, "total_contest": 2, "won_contest": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "goal_rate": 1.0354, "goals": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "blocks": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 1.0251, "ball_carries": 7, "total_progression": 21, "progressive_carries": 0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "crosses_attempted": 0.0, "duel_win_rate": 0.49, "pressing_faced": "LOW", "matchup_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", 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"rating": 6.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0179, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 8, "tackles": 1, "duels_won": 2, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 18974, "combined_rank_score": 2451.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 1079.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.35, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 3823.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 14, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.3697, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Liam Millar", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Marc Guiu", "ranking": 18969 }, { "player_name": "Frans Krätzig", "ranking": 18970 }, { "player_name": "Lucas González", "ranking": 18971 }, { "player_name": "Cameron Devlin", "ranking": 18972 }, { "player_name": "Rafael Delgado", "ranking": 18973 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Damián Batallini", "ranking": 18975 }, { "player_name": "Luca Langoni", "ranking": 18976 }, { "player_name": "Mattéo Tramoni", "ranking": 18977 }, { "player_name": "Cyril Ngonge", "ranking": 18978 }, { "player_name": "Reinhold Ranftl", "ranking": 18979 } ] } } } }, "substitutes": { "David Akintola": { "player_id": 798676, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 11, "height": 178, "market_value": 1100000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.1465, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "total_shots": 1, "rating": 6.6724, "minutes": 25, "expected_assists": 0.0138, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "key_pass": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.559, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.29, "projected_substitution_order": 1, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.369, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": null }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": null, "combined_rank_score": null, "ranking_source": "missing_player_rankings_csv_row", "ranking_status": "missing", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": null, "fifa_rank": null, "fifa_overall": null, "fifa_source": null, "match_squad_rank": 18, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.6724, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "David Akintola", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [], "lower": [] } } }, "Lucas Gourna-Douath": { "player_id": 1012657, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 29, "height": 185, "market_value": 5600000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0019, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "rating": 78.7337, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "ball_recovery": 2, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 3, "total_opp_half_passes": 4, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 3, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 2.3114, "dispossessed": 1.9817, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 1, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.505, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.1, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 2, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.369, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14064504, "match_date": "2026-05-10", "home_team": "Le Havre", "away_team": "Olympique de Marseille", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Le Havre", "opponent": "Olympique de Marseille", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0317, "expected_assists": 0.011, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 32, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14167987, "match_date": "2026-05-03", "home_team": "Lille", "away_team": "Le Havre", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Le Havre", "opponent": "Lille", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0038, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 28, "accurate_pass": 22, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 3, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Ligue 1", "league_id": "34", "league_slug": "ligue-1", "league_country": "France", "season_id": "77356", "season_name": "Ligue 1 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 18403, "combined_rank_score": 2003.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 3791.0, "fifa_overall": 72.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 11, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.7337, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Lucas Gourna-Douath", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Amir Hadžiahmetović", "ranking": 18398 }, { "player_name": "Carlos Gonzalez", "ranking": 18399 }, { "player_name": "Luís Maximiano", "ranking": 18400 }, { "player_name": "Miki Yamane", "ranking": 18401 }, { "player_name": "Miha Zajc", "ranking": 18402 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Téji Savanier", "ranking": 18404 }, { "player_name": "Patrick van Aanholt", "ranking": 18405 }, { "player_name": "Ludwig Augustinsson", "ranking": 18406 }, { "player_name": "Karl Darlow", "ranking": 18407 }, { "player_name": "Josh Laurent", "ranking": 18408 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.56, "total_shots": 9, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_passes": 423, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 11, "avg_rating": 77.54, "possession_estimated_pct": 48.7, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.5 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Haji Wright", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 16600000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.596, "defenders": [ "Charlie Hughes", "Nobel Mendy" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.503, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.27, "xg_contribution": 0.0019, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Charlie Hughes", "role": "CB", "market_value": 9100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.73 }, { "player": "Nobel Mendy", "role": "CB", "market_value": 7700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.73 } ], "duel_analysis": "Haji Wright (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Charlie Hughes and Nobel Mendy in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 27%. Projected xG contribution: 0.002 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Sidiki Cherif", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 16900000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.6, "defenders": [ "Elliot Stroud", "Charlie Hughes" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.508, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.323, "xg_contribution": 0.0018, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Elliot Stroud", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 8400000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.677 }, { "player": "Charlie Hughes", "role": "CB", "market_value": 9100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.677 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sidiki Cherif (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Elliot Stroud and Charlie Hughes in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 32%. Projected xG contribution: 0.002 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ephron Mason-Clark", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 17200000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.603, "defenders": [ "Ryan Giles" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.533, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.427, "xg_contribution": 0.0519, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ryan Giles", "role": "RB", "market_value": 10900000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.573 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ephron Mason-Clark (LWB) is evenly matched against Ryan Giles in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 43%. Projected xG contribution: 0.052 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Gustavo Hamer", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 14700000, "attacker_height": 169, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.576, "defenders": [ "Lucas Herrington" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.508, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.37, "xg_contribution": 0.0472, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lucas Herrington", "role": "LB", "market_value": 8800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.63 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gustavo Hamer (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Lucas Herrington in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 37%. Projected xG contribution: 0.047 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Caleb Yirenkyi", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 18700000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.618, "defenders": [ "Elliot Stroud" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.503, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.49, "xg_contribution": 0.1413, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Elliot Stroud", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 8400000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.51 } ], "duel_analysis": "Caleb Yirenkyi (CM) is evenly matched against Elliot Stroud in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 49%. Projected xG contribution: 0.141 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Jens Hjertø-Dahl", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 9600000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.518, "defenders": [ "Milan van Ewijk" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.66, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.416, "xg_contribution": 0.0499, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Milan van Ewijk", "role": "CB", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.584 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jens Hjertø-Dahl (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Milan van Ewijk in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%. Projected xG contribution: 0.050 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Joe Gelhardt", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 15000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.579, "defenders": [ "Caleb Yirenkyi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.618, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.39, "xg_contribution": 0.0488, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Caleb Yirenkyi", "role": "CM", "market_value": 18700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.61 } ], "duel_analysis": "Joe Gelhardt (CAM) faces tough defensive resistance against Caleb Yirenkyi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Projected xG contribution: 0.049 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Mohamed Belloumi", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 5700000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.471, "defenders": [ "Milan van Ewijk" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.66, "duel_zone": "RW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.343, "xg_contribution": 0.0439, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Milan van Ewijk", "role": "CB", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.657 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mohamed Belloumi (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Milan van Ewijk in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. The quality gap is significant (€6M vs €23M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.044 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Oli McBurnie", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 5400000, "attacker_height": 188, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.467, "defenders": [ "Milan van Ewijk", "Liam Kitching" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.62, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0957, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Milan van Ewijk", "role": "CB", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Liam Kitching", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Oli McBurnie (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Milan van Ewijk and Liam Kitching in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.096 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.634, "away_midfield_power": 0.563, "home_creative_power": 0.515, "away_creative_power": 0.465, "home_defensive_power": 0.564, "away_defensive_power": 0.44, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.53, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Jack Rudoni", "Caleb Yirenkyi", "Ephron Mason-Clark", "Gustavo Hamer" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Joe Gelhardt", "Jens Hjertø-Dahl", "Elliot Stroud", "Hidemasa Morita", "Mohamed Belloumi" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 51.3, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 48.7, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.3, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.5, "home_key_passes_projected": 4.6, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.3, "home_throughball_threat": 2.1, "away_throughball_threat": 2.0, "key_personal_duel": "Jack Rudoni vs Joe Gelhardt", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.012, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.987 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.032, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "LW vs CB" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Haji Wright": { "opponents": [ "Charlie Hughes", "Nobel Mendy" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Sidiki Cherif": { "opponents": [ "Elliot Stroud", "Charlie Hughes" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Ephron Mason-Clark": { "opponents": [ "Ryan Giles", "Hidemasa Morita" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gustavo Hamer": { "opponents": [ "Lucas Herrington", "Jens Hjertø-Dahl" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Caleb Yirenkyi": { "opponents": [ "Elliot Stroud", "Joe Gelhardt", "Mohamed Belloumi" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Milan van Ewijk": { "opponents": [ "Jens Hjertø-Dahl", "Mohamed Belloumi", "Oli McBurnie" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Liam Kitching": { "opponents": [ "Oli McBurnie" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jack Rudoni": { "opponents": [ "Elliot Stroud" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Carl Rushworth": { "opponents": [ "Oli McBurnie", "Joe Gelhardt" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Bobby Thomas": { "opponents": [ "Oli McBurnie" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Brandon Thomas-Asante": { "opponents": [ "Ryan Giles", "Lucas Herrington" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Charlie Hughes": { "opponents": [ "Haji Wright", "Sidiki Cherif" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nobel Mendy": { "opponents": [ "Haji Wright" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Elliot Stroud": { "opponents": [ "Sidiki Cherif", "Caleb Yirenkyi", "Jack Rudoni" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ryan Giles": { "opponents": [ "Ephron Mason-Clark" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Lucas Herrington": { "opponents": [ "Gustavo Hamer" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jens Hjertø-Dahl": { "opponents": [ "Milan van Ewijk", "Gustavo Hamer" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Joe Gelhardt": { "opponents": [ "Caleb Yirenkyi" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Mohamed Belloumi": { "opponents": [ "Milan van Ewijk", "Caleb Yirenkyi" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Oli McBurnie": { "opponents": [ "Milan van Ewijk", "Liam Kitching" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Hidemasa Morita": { "opponents": [ "Ephron Mason-Clark" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Konstantinos Tzolakis": { "opponents": [ "Brandon Thomas-Asante", "Sidiki Cherif" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Jack Rudoni vs Joe Gelhardt will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.24, Away: 0.24. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9429, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9503, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.129, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.113, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9809, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9619, "home_midfield_factor": 1.012, "away_midfield_factor": 0.987, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6065, "away_avg_quality": 0.5078, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0987, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.6424, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.5215, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.7607, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": 0.1789, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.3936, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.2505, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0746, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.037, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.032, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.687, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.0316, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.687, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.032, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 7, "opponent_position": 11, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 11, "opponent_position": 7, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-08-29T13:30:59Z" }