{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Liverpool", "away_team": "Forest", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260829", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1295, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": null, "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2751, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1295 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1247 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.0936 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.0932 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0873 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0936, "0-1": 0.0932, "0-2": 0.0481, "0-3": 0.0164, "0-4": 0.0042, "0-5": 0.0009, "1-0": 0.1247, "1-1": 0.1295, "1-2": 0.0655, "1-3": 0.0223, "1-4": 0.0057, "1-5": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.0856, "2-1": 0.0873, "2-2": 0.0445, "2-3": 0.0151, "2-4": 0.0039, "2-5": 0.0008, "3-0": 0.0388, "3-1": 0.0396, "3-2": 0.0202, "3-3": 0.0069, "3-4": 0.0018, "4-0": 0.0132, "4-1": 0.0135, "4-2": 0.0069, "4-3": 0.0023, "4-4": 0.0006, "5-0": 0.0036, "5-1": 0.0037, "5-2": 0.0019, "5-3": 0.0006, "6-0": 0.0008, "6-1": 0.0008 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.445, "draw": 0.2751, "away_win": 0.2799 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.4253, "under_2_5_goals": 0.5747, "btts_yes": 0.4766, "btts_no": 0.5234, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3606, "away_clean_sheet": 0.2564 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 87.18, "MCR": 93.15, "ATR": 92.98, "GK": 90.89 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 88.25, "MCR": 85.72, "ATR": 84.0, "GK": 81.72 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Liverpool vs Forest. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Hugo Ekitiké, Morgan Gibbs-White", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Florian Wirtz vs Morgan Gibbs-White will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.34, Away: 0.73. Home danger zone: Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank." }, "confidence": 0.72, "home_lambda": 1.361, "away_lambda": 1.02 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.445, "draw": 0.2751, "away_win": 0.2799 }, "favorite": "Liverpool", "favorite_win_probability": 0.445, "fair_spread": 0.341, "fair_total": 2.381, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Liverpool", "estimate": 1.361, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Forest", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.4253, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4766, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Liverpool", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Forest", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.2564, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Hugo Ekitiké (Liverpool)", "estimate": 0.4479, "probability": 0.255, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Morgan Gibbs-White (Forest)", "estimate": 0.442, "probability": 0.3755, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Hugo Ekitiké (Liverpool)", "estimate": 0.3401, "probability": 0.1217, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Dan Ndoye (Forest)", "estimate": 0.2461, "probability": 0.2179, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 2.381, "expected_total_shots": 28, "expected_total_passes": 793, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 17.1, "possession_home_pct": 52.1, "possession_away_pct": 47.9, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Liverpool", "favorite_win_probability": 0.445, "script": "Liverpool is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.34 goals and fair total 2.38.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 14 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Forest must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Liverpool lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Forest chance creation leans on Morgan Gibbs-White against Alexis Mac Allister in Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Liverpool: starters carry the main goal usage through Hugo Ekitiké; bench watchlist: Curtis Jones, Rio Ngumoha, Víctor Muñoz.", "Forest: starters carry the main goal usage through Morgan Gibbs-White; bench watchlist: Elliot Anderson, Lorenzo Lucca, Arnaud Kalimuendo.", "Assist usage should flow through Dominik Szoboszlai, Omari Hutchinson; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Liverpool tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 14 total first-half shots, and 1.19 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Forest is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Liverpool.", "Forest wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Liverpool": { "formation": "3-5-2", "players": { "Giorgi Mamardashvili": { "player_id": 930997, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 25, "height": 200, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 90.8926, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 30, "accurate_pass": 19, "total_long_balls": 18, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 39, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 7, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 1.5945, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 11.2678, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 1, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 18, "accurate_own_half_passes": 15, "expected_saves": 1.53, "high_pressure_saves": 0.58, "shots_faced": 3.3, "opponent_faced": "Morgan Gibbs-White, Dilane Bakwa", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023928, "match_date": "2026-05-15", "home_team": "Aston Villa", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Aston Villa", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0007, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 14, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 5, "goals_prevented": -0.8891 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632087, "match_date": "2026-04-14", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Paris Saint-Germain", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 5.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0043, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 36, "accurate_pass": 17, "clearances": 3, "ball_recovery": 10, "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": -1.3688 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632083, "match_date": "2026-04-08", "home_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Paris Saint-Germain", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0029, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 26, "accurate_pass": 15, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": -0.0375 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15631351, "match_date": "2026-03-10", "home_team": "Galatasaray", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Galatasaray", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0011, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 34, "accurate_pass": 21, "clearances": 3, 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UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 14669, "combined_rank_score": 480.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 763.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.71, "sofascore_appearances": 10.0, "fifa_rank": 198.0, "fifa_overall": 84.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 16, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 6.8926, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Giorgi Mamardashvili", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Diyorbek Mamataliev", "ranking": 14664 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás González", "ranking": 14665 }, { "player_name": "Alejandro Francés", "ranking": 14666 }, { "player_name": "Joelinton", "ranking": 14667 }, { "player_name": "Đorđe Petrović", "ranking": 14668 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Cristhian Mosquera", "ranking": 14670 }, { "player_name": "Joey Veerman", "ranking": 14671 }, { "player_name": "Amad Diallo", "ranking": 14672 }, { "player_name": "Dani Parejo", "ranking": 14673 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Piña", "ranking": 14674 } ] } } }, "Jérémy Jacquet": { "player_id": 1445625, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 191, "market_value": 57000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 3, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 4, "rating": 82.3941, "minutes": 90, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 32, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.3, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Igor Jesus", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", 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"ranking_source": "fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "missing_sofascore_player_rating", "sofascore_rank": null, "sofascore_rating": null, "sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 2345.0, "fifa_overall": 75.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.3941, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jérémy Jacquet", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Cassiano", "ranking": 18825 }, { "player_name": "Lucas González", "ranking": 18826 }, { "player_name": "Sverrir Ingi Ingason", "ranking": 18827 }, { "player_name": "László Bénes", "ranking": 18828 }, { "player_name": "Stefano Moreo", "ranking": 18829 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Anto Grgić", "ranking": 18831 }, { "player_name": "Alexander Bernhardsson", "ranking": 18832 }, { "player_name": "Victor Froholdt", "ranking": 18833 }, { "player_name": "Gastón Suso", "ranking": 18834 }, { "player_name": "Calvin Verdonk", "ranking": 18835 } ] } } }, "Jeremie Frimpong": { "player_id": 970361, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 30, "height": 171, "market_value": 36000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 0, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 90.074, "minutes": 43, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 12, "duels_won": 3, "total_long_balls": 2, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 5, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 10, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 8, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 1, "touches": 30, "possession_lost": 7.8115, "dispossessed": 2.1549, "duels_lost": 4, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 2, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 0, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0493, "expected_assists": 0.0658, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 0, "big_chances_created": 1, "xgot": 0.0431, "ball_carries": 6, "total_progression": 38, "progressive_carries": 2, "key_pass": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.2, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Igor Jesus", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0138, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0293, "fifa_overall": 83.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363246, "match_date": "2026-08-23 15:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Newcastle", "away_team": "Liverpool", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Liverpool", "opponent": "Newcastle", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 14023962, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Brentford", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Brentford", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.7, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0882, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 14, "accurate_pass": 13, "key_pass": 1, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632087, "match_date": "2026-04-14", "home_team": "Liverpool FC", "away_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Paris Saint-Germain", "stats": { "minutes": 45, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0108, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 16, "accurate_pass": 12, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 2, "duels_won": 5, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA Champions League", "league_id": "7", "league_slug": "uefa-champions-league", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "76953", "season_name": "UEFA Champions League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 15632083, "match_date": "2026-04-08", "home_team": "Paris Saint-Germain", "away_team": "Liverpool FC", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Liverpool FC", "opponent": "Paris Saint-Germain", "stats": { "minutes": 89, "rating": 6.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0495, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 10 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "UEFA 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"home_team": "England", "away_team": "Ghana", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "England", "opponent": "Ghana", "stats": { "minutes": 74, "rating": 7.2, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1189, "expected_assists": 0.0384, "total_shots": 4, "shots_off_target": 2, "total_pass": 74, "accurate_pass": 66, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 5 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186504, "match_date": "2026-06-17", "home_team": "England", "away_team": "Croatia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "England", "opponent": "Croatia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.0429, "expected_assists": 0.0183, "total_shots": 1, "total_pass": 55, "accurate_pass": 47, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 2, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 4, "clearances": 2, "aerial_won": 2, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 8 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14023964, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Nottingham Forest", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Nottingham Forest", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 65, "rating": 7.1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.012, "expected_assists": 0.393, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 43, "accurate_pass": 39, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 1, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 3754, "combined_rank_score": 368.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 138.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.3368, "sofascore_appearances": 38.0, "fifa_rank": 599.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 2, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.9409, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Elliot Anderson", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Lucas Taylor", "ranking": 3749 }, { "player_name": "D.J. Taylor", "ranking": 3750 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Tamayo", "ranking": 3751 }, { "player_name": "Nicolás Orellana", "ranking": 3752 }, { "player_name": "Kevin Cannavò", "ranking": 3753 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Giovani Lo Celso", "ranking": 3755 }, { "player_name": "Ollie Watkins", "ranking": 3756 }, { "player_name": "Daniel Muñoz", "ranking": 3757 }, { "player_name": "John McGinn", "ranking": 3758 }, { "player_name": "Aleksandar Vojnović", "ranking": 3759 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.89, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 6, "total_passes": 380, "interceptions": 11, "tackles": 17, "avg_rating": 86.12, "possession_estimated_pct": 47.9, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Alexander Isak", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 88000000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.888, "defenders": [ "Ousmane Diomande", "Nikola Milenković" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.743, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.267, "xg_contribution": 0.058, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.8, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ousmane Diomande", "role": "CB", "market_value": 44000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.733 }, { "player": "Nikola Milenković", "role": "CB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.733 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alexander Isak (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Ousmane Diomande and Nikola Milenković in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 27%. The quality gap is significant (€88M vs €35M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.058 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Alexis Mac Allister", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 77000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.879, "defenders": [ "Murillo" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.821, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.41, "xg_contribution": 0.0931, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 3.1, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Murillo", "role": "RB", "market_value": 49000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.59 } ], "duel_analysis": "Alexis Mac Allister (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Murillo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. The quality gap is significant (€77M vs €49M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.093 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Cody Gakpo", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 58000000, "attacker_height": 193, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.848, "defenders": [ "Neco Williams" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.513, "xg_contribution": 0.0626, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 3.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Neco Williams", "role": "LB", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.487 } ], "duel_analysis": "Cody Gakpo (RWB) is slightly favored against Neco Williams in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 51%. The quality gap is significant (€58M vs €26M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.063 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 91000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.89, "defenders": [ "Callum Hudson Odoi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.732, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.561, "xg_contribution": 0.0594, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Callum Hudson Odoi", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.439 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dominik Szoboszlai (CM) is slightly favored against Callum Hudson Odoi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 56%. The quality gap is significant (€91M vs €32M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.059 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Ryan Gravenberch", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 87000000, "attacker_height": 190, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.887, "defenders": [ "Callum Hudson Odoi" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.732, "duel_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.542, "xg_contribution": 0.0686, "shots_in_zone": 1.2, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Callum Hudson Odoi", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 32000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.458 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ryan Gravenberch (CDM) is slightly favored against Callum Hudson Odoi in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 54%. The quality gap is significant (€87M vs €32M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.069 — creating consistent moderate threat." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Dilane Bakwa", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Cody Gakpo" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.848, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.311, "xg_contribution": 0.2146, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.3, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Cody Gakpo", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 58000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.689 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dilane Bakwa (LW) is heavily outmatched defensively against Cody Gakpo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 31%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €58M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.215 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Morgan Gibbs-White", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 67000000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.866, "defenders": [ "Alexis Mac Allister" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.879, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.414, "xg_contribution": 0.3505, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Alexis Mac Allister", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 77000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.586 } ], "duel_analysis": "Morgan Gibbs-White (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Alexis Mac Allister in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Projected xG contribution: 0.351 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Omari Hutchinson", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 28000000, "attacker_height": 174, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.702, "defenders": [ "Dominik Szoboszlai", "Ryan Gravenberch" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM", "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.888, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM + CDM", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0317, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "role": "CM", "market_value": 91000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Ryan Gravenberch", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 87000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.2, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Omari Hutchinson (CAM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Dominik Szoboszlai and Ryan Gravenberch in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€28M vs €89M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.032 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Igor Jesus", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 179, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Jérémy Jacquet", "Jeremie Frimpong" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.802, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0918, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.5, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jérémy Jacquet", "role": "CB", "market_value": 57000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 1.2, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Jeremie Frimpong", "role": "CB", "market_value": 36000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Igor Jesus (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Jérémy Jacquet and Jeremie Frimpong in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €46M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.092 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Callum Hudson Odoi", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 32000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.732, "defenders": [ "Dominik Szoboszlai" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.89, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.289, "xg_contribution": 0.0419, "shots_in_zone": 0.8, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Dominik Szoboszlai", "role": "CM", "market_value": 91000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.711 } ], "duel_analysis": "Callum Hudson Odoi (CDM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Dominik Szoboszlai in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 29%. The quality gap is significant (€32M vs €91M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.042 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.929, "away_midfield_power": 0.792, "home_creative_power": 0.923, "away_creative_power": 0.812, "home_defensive_power": 0.917, "away_defensive_power": 0.583, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.54, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Florian Wirtz", "Dominik Szoboszlai", "Ryan Gravenberch", "Alexis Mac Allister", "Cody Gakpo" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Morgan Gibbs-White", "Callum Hudson Odoi", "Dan Ndoye", "Omari Hutchinson", "Dilane Bakwa" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 52.1, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 47.9, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 9.5, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 7.0, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.4, "home_throughball_threat": 3.4, "away_throughball_threat": 3.0, "key_personal_duel": "Florian Wirtz vs Morgan Gibbs-White", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.025, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.987 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.06, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.06, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.361, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "CDM vs CDM" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Alexander Isak": { "opponents": [ "Ousmane Diomande", "Nikola Milenković" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Alexis Mac Allister": { "opponents": [ "Murillo", "Morgan Gibbs-White", "Dilane Bakwa" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Cody Gakpo": { "opponents": [ "Neco Williams", "Dilane Bakwa", "Morgan Gibbs-White" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dominik Szoboszlai": { "opponents": [ "Callum Hudson Odoi", "Omari Hutchinson" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ryan Gravenberch": { "opponents": [ "Callum Hudson Odoi", "Omari Hutchinson" ], "primary_zone": "CDM vs CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jérémy Jacquet": { "opponents": [ "Igor Jesus" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Jeremie Frimpong": { "opponents": [ "Igor Jesus" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Florian Wirtz": { "opponents": [ "Dan Ndoye" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Giorgi Mamardashvili": { "opponents": [ "Igor Jesus", "Dan Ndoye" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Miloš Kerkez": { "opponents": [ "Igor Jesus" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Hugo Ekitiké": { "opponents": [ "Murillo", "Ousmane Diomande" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Ousmane Diomande": { "opponents": [ "Alexander Isak" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nikola Milenković": { "opponents": [ "Alexander Isak" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Murillo": { "opponents": [ "Alexis Mac Allister" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Neco Williams": { "opponents": [ "Cody Gakpo" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Callum Hudson Odoi": { "opponents": [ "Dominik Szoboszlai", "Ryan Gravenberch" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dilane Bakwa": { "opponents": [ "Cody Gakpo", "Alexis Mac Allister" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Morgan Gibbs-White": { "opponents": [ "Alexis Mac Allister", "Cody Gakpo" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Omari Hutchinson": { "opponents": [ "Dominik Szoboszlai", "Ryan Gravenberch" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM + CDM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Igor Jesus": { "opponents": [ "Jérémy Jacquet", "Jeremie Frimpong" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Dan Ndoye": { "opponents": [ "Florian Wirtz" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "John Victor": { "opponents": [ "Hugo Ekitiké", "Alexander Isak" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Florian Wirtz vs Morgan Gibbs-White will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.34, Away: 0.73. Home danger zone: Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Wingback — Compact Flank.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.001, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8989, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9006, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8952, "home_midfield_factor": 1.025, "away_midfield_factor": 0.987, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.8524, "away_avg_quality": 0.7389, "avg_quality_gap": 0.1135, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.6682, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.6538, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.9746, "elite_count_gap": 5, "combined_quality_gap": 0.2672, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.5878, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.3741, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0945, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0075, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.361, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.657, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.3615, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.6575, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.361, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 14, "opponent_position": 18, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 18, "opponent_position": 14, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-08-29T13:30:39Z" }