{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Leeds", "away_team": "Brentford", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260830", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1183, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": null, "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2486, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1183 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.1108 }, { "score": "1-2", "probability": 0.0956 }, { "score": "0-2", "probability": 0.0911 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.0711 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0695, "0-1": 0.1108, "0-2": 0.0911, "0-3": 0.0495, "0-4": 0.0202, "0-5": 0.0066, "0-6": 0.0018, "1-0": 0.0711, "1-1": 0.1183, "1-2": 0.0956, "1-3": 0.052, "1-4": 0.0212, "1-5": 0.0069, "1-6": 0.0019, "2-0": 0.0378, "2-1": 0.0616, "2-2": 0.0502, "2-3": 0.0273, "2-4": 0.0111, "2-5": 0.0036, "2-6": 0.001, "3-0": 0.0132, "3-1": 0.0216, "3-2": 0.0176, "3-3": 0.0095, "3-4": 0.0039, "3-5": 0.0013, "4-0": 0.0035, "4-1": 0.0057, "4-2": 0.0046, "4-3": 0.0025, "4-4": 0.001, "5-0": 0.0007, "5-1": 0.0012, "5-2": 0.001, "5-3": 0.0005 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.2435, "draw": 0.2486, "away_win": 0.5079 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.5015, "under_2_5_goals": 0.4985, "btts_yes": 0.5236, "btts_no": 0.4764, "home_clean_sheet": 0.1959, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3499 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 82.14, "MCR": 83.54, "ATR": 82.24, "GK": 82.81 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 83.32, "MCR": 82.93, "ATR": 81.98, "GK": 86.14 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Leeds vs Brentford. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Dango Ouattara", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Ethan Ampadu vs Mamadou Sangare will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.35, Away: 1.03. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle." }, "confidence": 0.75, "home_lambda": 1.05, "away_lambda": 1.63 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.2435, "draw": 0.2486, "away_win": 0.5079 }, "favorite": "Brentford", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5079, "fair_spread": -0.58, "fair_total": 2.68, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Leeds", "estimate": 1.05, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Brentford", "estimate": 1.63, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.5015, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5236, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Leeds", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.1959, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Brentford", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3499, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds)", "estimate": 0.3773, "probability": 0.4371, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Kevin Schade (Brentford)", "estimate": 0.3917, "probability": 0.2124, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Harry Wilson (Leeds)", "estimate": 0.1821, "probability": 0.3614, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Sepp van den Berg (Brentford)", "estimate": 0.2786, "probability": 0.0851, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.68, "expected_total_shots": 23, "expected_total_passes": 759, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.8, "possession_home_pct": 49.9, "possession_away_pct": 50.1, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Brentford", "favorite_win_probability": 0.5079, "script": "Brentford is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread -0.58 goals and fair total 2.68.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Leeds must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Brentford lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Brentford chance creation leans on Kevin Schade against Gabriel Gudmundsson in Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Leeds: starters carry the main goal usage through Dominic Calvert-Lewin; bench watchlist: Wilfried Gnonto, Sean Longstaff, Joël Piroe.", "Brentford: starters carry the main goal usage through Dango Ouattara; bench watchlist: Antoni Milambo, Fabio Carvalho, Gustavo Nunes.", "Assist usage should flow through Harry Wilson, Mamadou Sangare; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Brentford tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.34 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Leeds is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Brentford.", "Leeds wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Leeds": { "formation": "4-4-2", "players": { "James Trafford": { "player_id": 980643, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 197, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "saves": 3, "goals_prevented": 0.4045, "rating": 82.8085, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 12, "accurate_pass": 11, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "touches": 17, "clearances": 0, "ball_recovery": 2, "high_claims": 0, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 1.0582, "duels_won": 0, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 12, "accurate_own_half_passes": 11, "expected_saves": 2.17, "high_pressure_saves": 0.83, "shots_faced": 4.7, "opponent_faced": "Kevin Schade, Dango Ouattara", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363238, "match_date": "2026-08-22 14:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Forest", "away_team": "Leeds", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": 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"position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 5, "height": 193, "market_value": 38000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 2, "tackles": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "clearances": 12, "aerial_won": 2, "rating": 77.3956, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 62, "accurate_pass": 54, "duels_won": 6, "total_long_balls": 8, "accurate_long_balls": 4, "total_own_half_passes": 40, "accurate_own_half_passes": 39, "total_opp_half_passes": 21, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 16, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 81, "possession_lost": 7.9235, "dispossessed": 1.081, "duels_lost": 3, "aerial_lost": 2, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 4, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 1, "blocks": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.2641, "expected_assists": 0.0216, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 17, "total_progression": 37, 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"sofascore_appearances": 0.0, "fifa_rank": 10909.0, "fifa_overall": 65.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.8022, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Gustavo Nunes", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Cedric Harenbrock", "ranking": 27538 }, { "player_name": "Malcolm Jeng", "ranking": 27539 }, { "player_name": "Rafał Mamla", "ranking": 27540 }, { "player_name": "Lucas Maronnier", "ranking": 27541 }, { "player_name": "Gabriel Maioli", "ranking": 27542 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Farid Alfa-Ruprecht", "ranking": 27544 }, { "player_name": "David Mitov Nilsson", "ranking": 27545 }, { "player_name": "Tom Trybull", "ranking": 27546 }, { "player_name": "Damian Węglarz", "ranking": 27547 }, { "player_name": "Kyle Wootton", "ranking": 27548 } ] } } }, "Antoni Milambo": { "player_id": 1126692, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 17, "height": 179, "market_value": 21000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0264, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0145, "rating": 80.0872, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 11, "accurate_pass": 9, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.535, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.78, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.551, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0 }, "latest_10_games": [], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 18328, "combined_rank_score": 1945.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 773.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.7, "sofascore_appearances": 1.0, "fifa_rank": 3117.0, "fifa_overall": 73.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.0872, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Antoni Milambo", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Cebrail Makreckis", "ranking": 18323 }, { "player_name": "Danilo", "ranking": 18324 }, { "player_name": "Gonzalo Abrego", "ranking": 18325 }, { "player_name": "Marcelo Saracchi", "ranking": 18326 }, { "player_name": "Lee Dong Kyeong", "ranking": 18327 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Alhassan Yusuf", "ranking": 18329 }, { "player_name": "Sascha Horvath", "ranking": 18330 }, { "player_name": "Antoine Bernede", "ranking": 18331 }, { "player_name": "Gaius Makouta", "ranking": 18332 }, { "player_name": "Fisnik Asllani", "ranking": 18333 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.63, "expected_assists": 0.9, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 9, "total_passes": 402, "interceptions": 8, "tackles": 21, "avg_rating": 83.28, "possession_estimated_pct": 50.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 8.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Noah Okafor", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Sepp van den Berg", "Nathan Collins" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.724, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0542, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sepp van den Berg", "role": "CB", "market_value": 33000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Nathan Collins", "role": "CB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.2, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 1.0, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Noah Okafor (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Sepp van den Berg and Nathan Collins in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.054 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Harry Wilson", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 27000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.694, "defenders": [ "Michael Kayode" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.775, "duel_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.399, "xg_contribution": 0.0581, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Michael Kayode", "role": "RB", "market_value": 39000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.601 } ], "duel_analysis": "Harry Wilson (LM) faces tough defensive resistance against Michael Kayode in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.058 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Brenden Aaronson", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 178, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Kristoffer Ajer" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.396, "xg_contribution": 0.0938, "shots_in_zone": 1.4, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kristoffer Ajer", "role": "LB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.604 } ], "duel_analysis": "Brenden Aaronson (RM) faces tough defensive resistance against Kristoffer Ajer in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.094 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Ethan Ampadu", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 28000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.702, "defenders": [ "Yehor Yarmoliuk" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.718, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.451, "xg_contribution": 0.1463, "shots_in_zone": 1.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Yehor Yarmoliuk", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 30000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.549 } ], "duel_analysis": "Ethan Ampadu (CM) is evenly matched against Yehor Yarmoliuk in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Projected xG contribution: 0.146 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Dango Ouattara", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 36000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.758, "defenders": [ "Jaka Bijol" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.616, "duel_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.484, "xg_contribution": 0.3077, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jaka Bijol", "role": "RB", "market_value": 18500000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.516 } ], "duel_analysis": "Dango Ouattara (LW) is evenly matched against Jaka Bijol in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. The quality gap is significant (€36M vs €18M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.308 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Kevin Schade", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 36000000, "attacker_height": 183, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.758, "defenders": [ "Gabriel Gudmundsson" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.541, "xg_contribution": 0.4183, "shots_in_zone": 2.1, "dribbles_attempted": 4, "dribbles_successful": 1.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.4, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "role": "LB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.459 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kevin Schade (RW) is slightly favored against Gabriel Gudmundsson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 54%. Projected xG contribution: 0.418 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Mamadou Sangare", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 39000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.775, "defenders": [ "Ethan Ampadu" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.702, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.449, "xg_contribution": 0.0885, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ethan Ampadu", "role": "CM", "market_value": 28000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.551 } ], "duel_analysis": "Mamadou Sangare (CAM) is evenly matched against Ethan Ampadu in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%. Projected xG contribution: 0.089 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Igor Thiago", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 68000000, "attacker_height": 191, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.868, "defenders": [ "Tarik Muharemović", "Joe Rodon" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.694, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.27, "xg_contribution": 0.1505, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.0, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Tarik Muharemović", "role": "CB", "market_value": 38000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.73 }, { "player": "Joe Rodon", "role": "CB", "market_value": 18800000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.5, "defensive_success_rate": 0.73 } ], "duel_analysis": "Igor Thiago (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Tarik Muharemović and Joe Rodon in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 27%. The quality gap is significant (€68M vs €28M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.151 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Yehor Yarmoliuk", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 30000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.718, "defenders": [ "Ethan Ampadu" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.702, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.399, "xg_contribution": 0.0688, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Ethan Ampadu", "role": "CM", "market_value": 28000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.601 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yehor Yarmoliuk (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Ethan Ampadu in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.069 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.712, "away_midfield_power": 0.794, "home_creative_power": 0.778, "away_creative_power": 0.749, "home_defensive_power": 0.803, "away_defensive_power": 0.705, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.473, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Ethan Ampadu", "Harry Wilson", "Anton Stach", "Brenden Aaronson" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Mamadou Sangare", "Dango Ouattara", "Kevin Schade", "Yehor Yarmoliuk", "Mikkel Damsgaard" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.6, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 8.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 6.2, "away_key_passes_projected": 6.0, "home_throughball_threat": 2.9, "away_throughball_threat": 2.8, "key_personal_duel": "Ethan Ampadu vs Mamadou Sangare", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.998, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.004 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "4-4-2", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.04, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.07, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-4-2 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.05, "away_lambda": 1.63, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Noah Okafor": { "opponents": [ "Sepp van den Berg", "Nathan Collins" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Harry Wilson": { "opponents": [ "Michael Kayode", "Mikkel Damsgaard" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Brenden Aaronson": { "opponents": [ "Kristoffer Ajer", "Dango Ouattara" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Ethan Ampadu": { "opponents": [ "Yehor Yarmoliuk", "Mamadou Sangare", "Kevin Schade" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jaka Bijol": { "opponents": [ "Dango Ouattara" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Gabriel Gudmundsson": { "opponents": [ "Kevin Schade" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Tarik Muharemović": { "opponents": [ "Igor Thiago" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Joe Rodon": { "opponents": [ "Igor Thiago" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Anton Stach": { "opponents": [ "Yehor Yarmoliuk" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "James Trafford": { "opponents": [ "Igor Thiago", "Mamadou Sangare" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Dominic Calvert-Lewin": { "opponents": [ "Michael Kayode", "Sepp van den Berg" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Sepp van den Berg": { "opponents": [ "Noah Okafor" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nathan Collins": { "opponents": [ "Noah Okafor" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Michael Kayode": { "opponents": [ "Harry Wilson" ], "primary_zone": "Left Mid vs Right Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Kristoffer Ajer": { "opponents": [ "Brenden Aaronson" ], "primary_zone": "Right Mid vs Left Back — Wide Channel", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Yehor Yarmoliuk": { "opponents": [ "Ethan Ampadu", "Anton Stach" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Dango Ouattara": { "opponents": [ "Jaka Bijol", "Brenden Aaronson" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wing vs Right Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Kevin Schade": { "opponents": [ "Gabriel Gudmundsson", "Ethan Ampadu" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Mamadou Sangare": { "opponents": [ "Ethan Ampadu" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Igor Thiago": { "opponents": [ "Tarik Muharemović", "Joe Rodon" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Mikkel Damsgaard": { "opponents": [ "Harry Wilson" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Caoimhin Kelleher": { "opponents": [ "Dominic Calvert-Lewin", "Noah Okafor" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Ethan Ampadu vs Mamadou Sangare will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.35, Away: 1.03. Home danger zone: Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel. Away danger zone: Right Wing vs Left Back — Flank Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9123, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9054, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8976, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9282, "home_midfield_factor": 0.998, "away_midfield_factor": 1.004, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.6758, "away_avg_quality": 0.748, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0721, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.3521, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.3731, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.4014, "elite_count_gap": -1, "combined_quality_gap": -0.1306, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.2874, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1829, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0231, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0759, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.05, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.697, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 1.63, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.6971, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 1.6299, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.05, "final_away_lambda": 1.63 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 13, "opponent_position": 4, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 4, "opponent_position": 13, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-08-30T13:30:36Z" }