{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Fulham", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260830", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "4-4-2" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-1", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 1, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1348, "match_resolution": "draw", "predicted_winner": null, "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2936, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1348 }, { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1297 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1133 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.113 }, { "score": "2-1", "probability": 0.0781 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1133, "0-1": 0.113, "0-2": 0.0583, "0-3": 0.0198, "0-4": 0.0051, "0-5": 0.001, "1-0": 0.1297, "1-1": 0.1348, "1-2": 0.0681, "1-3": 0.0232, "1-4": 0.0059, "1-5": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.0765, "2-1": 0.0781, "2-2": 0.0398, "2-3": 0.0135, "2-4": 0.0035, "2-5": 0.0007, "3-0": 0.0298, "3-1": 0.0304, "3-2": 0.0155, "3-3": 0.0053, "3-4": 0.0013, "4-0": 0.0087, "4-1": 0.0089, "4-2": 0.0045, "4-3": 0.0015, "5-0": 0.002, "5-1": 0.0021, "5-2": 0.0011 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3907, "draw": 0.2936, "away_win": 0.3157 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.3743, "under_2_5_goals": 0.6257, "btts_yes": 0.442, "btts_no": 0.558, "home_clean_sheet": 0.3606, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3107 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 82.58, "MCR": 80.94, "ATR": 82.0, "GK": 80.7 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 85.51, "MCR": 82.31, "ATR": 83.58, "GK": 86.91 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Sunderland vs Fulham. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Brian Brobbey, Rodrigo Muniz", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Noah Sadiki vs Oscar Bobb will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.87, Away: 0.37. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: RM vs LWB." }, "confidence": 0.71, "home_lambda": 1.169, "away_lambda": 1.02 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3907, "draw": 0.2936, "away_win": 0.3157 }, "favorite": "Sunderland", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3907, "fair_spread": 0.149, "fair_total": 2.189, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Sunderland", "estimate": 1.169, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Fulham", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.3743, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.442, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Sunderland", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Fulham", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3107, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Brian Brobbey (Sunderland)", "estimate": 0.3485, "probability": 0.3568, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Rodrigo Muniz (Fulham)", "estimate": 0.4732, "probability": 0.281, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Enzo Le Fée (Sunderland)", "estimate": 0.494, "probability": 0.6057, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Antonee Robinson (Fulham)", "estimate": 0.1051, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 2.189, "expected_total_shots": 26, "expected_total_passes": 718, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 15.2, "possession_home_pct": 50.4, "possession_away_pct": 49.6, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Sunderland", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3907, "script": "Sunderland is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.15 goals and fair total 2.19.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 13 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Fulham must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Sunderland lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Sunderland chance creation leans on Brian Brobbey against Joachim Andersen, Ryan Sessegnon in Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Sunderland: starters carry the main goal usage through Brian Brobbey; bench watchlist: Chemsdine Talbi, Eliezer Mayenda, Romaine Mundle.", "Fulham: starters carry the main goal usage through Rodrigo Muniz; bench watchlist: Harry Wilson, Samuel Chukwueze, Jonah Kusi-Asare.", "Assist usage should flow through Enzo Le Fée; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Sunderland tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 13 total first-half shots, and 1.09 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Fulham is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Sunderland.", "Fulham wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Sunderland": { "formation": "3-5-2", "players": { "Robin Roefs": { "player_id": 1012928, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 22, "height": 193, "market_value": 29000000, "stats": { "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.0, "rating": 80.7015, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 35, "accurate_pass": 23, "total_long_balls": 17, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 44, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 8, "high_claims": 1, "punches": 2.126, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 0, "sweeper_accurate": 0, "saves_inside_box": 1, "possession_lost": 11.3422, 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Piol", "ranking": 25432 } ] } } } }, "substitutes": { "Samuel Chukwueze": { "player_id": 822470, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 19, "height": 172, "market_value": 15500000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0001, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0013, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 86.7531, "minutes": 26, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 3, "accurate_pass": 2, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 2, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 1, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 3, "possession_lost": 1.1792, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 1, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, 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"sofascore_appearances": 23.0, "fifa_rank": 718.0, "fifa_overall": 80.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 13, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.7531, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Samuel Chukwueze", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Bryan Heynen", "ranking": 15020 }, { "player_name": "Jordy Clasie", "ranking": 15021 }, { "player_name": "Chiquinho", "ranking": 15022 }, { "player_name": "Georginio Wijnaldum", "ranking": 15023 }, { "player_name": "Vedat Muriqi", "ranking": 15024 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Chiquinho", "ranking": 15026 }, { "player_name": "Andrija Živković", "ranking": 15027 }, { "player_name": "Davide Zappacosta", "ranking": 15028 }, { "player_name": "Levi Colwill", "ranking": 15029 }, { "player_name": "Marten de Roon", "ranking": 15030 } ] } } }, "Jonah Kusi-Asare": { "player_id": 1503757, "position": "F", "position_depth": "F_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 18, "height": 196, "market_value": 4300000, "stats": { "expected_goals": 0.0, "goal_rate": 0.0001, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0001, "key_pass": 0, "rating": 66.4885, "minutes": 25, "total_shots": 0, "duels_won": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "total_pass": 0, "accurate_pass": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_opp_half_passes": 0, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 0, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 1, "possession_lost": 0.2778, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "ball_recovery": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 0, "assists": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "offsides": 0, "ball_carries": 1, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.562, "bench_expected_minutes": 25.36, "projected_substitution_order": 2, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.553, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 60.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_id": 14023948, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0002, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 1, "accurate_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 25427, "combined_rank_score": 8131.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 1041.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.4667, "sofascore_appearances": 7.0, "fifa_rank": 15222.0, "fifa_overall": 60.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 17, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.4885, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Jonah Kusi-Asare", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Ha Chang Rae", "ranking": 25422 }, { "player_name": "Maxime Dubosson", "ranking": 25423 }, { "player_name": "Jerson Malagón", "ranking": 25424 }, { "player_name": "Radovan Pankov", "ranking": 25425 }, { "player_name": "Arambarri", "ranking": 25426 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Alexander Busch", "ranking": 25428 }, { "player_name": "Jack Milne", "ranking": 25429 }, { "player_name": "Luis Zárate", "ranking": 25430 }, { "player_name": "Pol Moreno", "ranking": 25431 }, { "player_name": "Ariath Piol", "ranking": 25432 } ] } } }, "Harry Wilson": { "player_id": 355528, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 8, "height": 173, "market_value": 27000000, "stats": { "key_pass": 1, "expected_assists": 0.0465, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0272, "rating": 83.4974, "minutes": 23, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 0, "accurate_long_balls": 0, "total_own_half_passes": 3, "accurate_own_half_passes": 2, "total_opp_half_passes": 6, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 5, "crosses_total": 1, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 13, "possession_lost": 2.7031, "dispossessed": 2.1165, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 0, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 0, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 4, "total_progression": 0, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.545, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.99, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.553, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 0, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363238, "match_date": "2026-08-22 14:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Forest", "away_team": "Leeds", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Leeds", "opponent": "Forest", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 14023965, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Newcastle United", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Newcastle United", "stats": { "minutes": 18, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 1, "expected_goals": 0.1023, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 6, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023958, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Wolverhampton", "away_team": "Fulham", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Wolverhampton", "stats": { "minutes": 11, "rating": 6.5, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0356, "expected_assists": 0.003, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 8, "accurate_pass": 7, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023948, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Fulham", "away_team": "Bournemouth", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Fulham", "opponent": "Bournemouth", "stats": { "minutes": 62, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0252, "expected_assists": 0.171, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 31, "accurate_pass": 27, "key_pass": 2, "clearances": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13233696, "match_date": "2025-11-18", "home_team": "Wales", "away_team": "North Macedonia", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Wales", "opponent": "North Macedonia", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 10.0, "goal_rate": 3.0, "goals": 3, "assists": 1, "total_shots": 3, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_pass": 32, "accurate_pass": 23, "key_pass": 4, "tackles": 3, "tackles_won": 3, "duels_won": 7, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 16009, "combined_rank_score": 900.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 15.0, "sofascore_rating": 8.1167, "sofascore_appearances": 6.0, "fifa_rank": 1786.0, "fifa_overall": 76.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 3, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.4974, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Harry Wilson", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Juan Figueroa", "ranking": 16004 }, { "player_name": "Kaito Taniguchi", "ranking": 16005 }, { "player_name": "Vlatko Stojanovski", "ranking": 16006 }, { "player_name": "Islom Tukhtakhuzhaev", "ranking": 16007 }, { "player_name": "Brendan Chardonnet", "ranking": 16008 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Carl Starfelt", "ranking": 16010 }, { "player_name": "Jayden Oosterwolde", "ranking": 16011 }, { "player_name": "Seok-jun Hong", "ranking": 16012 }, { "player_name": "Kobbie Mainoo", "ranking": 16013 }, { "player_name": "Giovanny Avalos", "ranking": 16014 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 1, "expected_goals": 1.02, "expected_assists": 0.44, "total_shots": 12, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 393, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 13, "avg_rating": 84.12, "possession_estimated_pct": 49.6, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.5 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Brian Brobbey", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 42000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.791, "defenders": [ "Joachim Andersen", "Ryan Sessegnon" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.252, "xg_contribution": 0.3004, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.7, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Joachim Andersen", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.748 }, { "player": "Ryan Sessegnon", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.748 } ], "duel_analysis": "Brian Brobbey (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Joachim Andersen and Ryan Sessegnon in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 25%. The quality gap is significant (€42M vs €21M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.300 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Chris Rigg", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 24000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.669, "defenders": [ "Antonee Robinson" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.376, "xg_contribution": 0.0903, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.7, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Antonee Robinson", "role": "RB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.624 } ], "duel_analysis": "Chris Rigg (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Antonee Robinson in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 38%. Projected xG contribution: 0.090 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Simon Adingra", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 175, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Calvin Bassey" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.71, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.337, "xg_contribution": 0.1265, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Calvin Bassey", "role": "LB", "market_value": 29000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.663 } ], "duel_analysis": "Simon Adingra (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Calvin Bassey in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. Projected xG contribution: 0.126 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Noah Sadiki", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 37000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.764, "defenders": [ "Sander Berge" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.395, "xg_contribution": 0.1432, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.0, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sander Berge", "role": "CM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.605 } ], "duel_analysis": "Noah Sadiki (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Sander Berge in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.143 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Enzo Le Fée", "attacker_role": "CDM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Sander Berge" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.686, "duel_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.34, "xg_contribution": 0.21, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sander Berge", "role": "CM", "market_value": 26000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.66 } ], "duel_analysis": "Enzo Le Fée (CDM) faces tough defensive resistance against Sander Berge in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 34%. Projected xG contribution: 0.210 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Gonzalo García", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 31000000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.725, "defenders": [ "Trai Hume", "Nordi Mukiele" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.606, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.251, "xg_contribution": 0.004, "shots_in_zone": 2.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.4, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Trai Hume", "role": "CB", "market_value": 20000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.749 }, { "player": "Nordi Mukiele", "role": "CB", "market_value": 15200000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.749 } ], "duel_analysis": "Gonzalo García (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Trai Hume and Nordi Mukiele in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 25%. Projected xG contribution: 0.004 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Kevin", "attacker_role": "LM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 176, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Simon Adingra" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.66, "duel_zone": "LM vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.436, "xg_contribution": 0.0495, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Simon Adingra", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 23000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.564 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kevin (LM) is evenly matched against Simon Adingra in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.050 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Joshua King", "attacker_role": "RM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Chris Rigg" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "RM vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.408, "xg_contribution": 0.1738, "shots_in_zone": 1.5, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.1, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Chris Rigg", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.592 } ], "duel_analysis": "Joshua King (RM) faces tough defensive resistance against Chris Rigg in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 41%. Projected xG contribution: 0.174 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Sander Berge", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 195, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Noah Sadiki" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.764, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.445, "xg_contribution": 0.1427, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.4, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Noah Sadiki", "role": "CM", "market_value": 37000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.2, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.555 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sander Berge (CM) is evenly matched against Noah Sadiki in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.143 — with neither side clearly dominant." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.758, "away_midfield_power": 0.713, "home_creative_power": 0.643, "away_creative_power": 0.585, "home_defensive_power": 0.607, "away_defensive_power": 0.585, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.515, "home_midfield_count": 5, "away_midfield_count": 4, "home_midfield_players": [ "Noah Sadiki", "Habib Diarra", "Enzo Le Fée", "Chris Rigg", "Simon Adingra" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Oscar Bobb", "Kevin", "Sander Berge", "Joshua King" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 50.4, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 49.6, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.7, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.5, "home_key_passes_projected": 5.4, "away_key_passes_projected": 5.0, "home_throughball_threat": 2.5, "away_throughball_threat": 2.4, "key_personal_duel": "Noah Sadiki vs Oscar Bobb", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.007, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.995 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-5-2", "away_formation": "4-4-2", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.01, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.01, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-5-2 and 4-4-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.169, "away_lambda": 1.02, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "RM vs LWB", "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Brian Brobbey": { "opponents": [ "Joachim Andersen", "Ryan Sessegnon" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Chris Rigg": { "opponents": [ "Antonee Robinson", "Joshua King" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Simon Adingra": { "opponents": [ "Calvin Bassey", "Kevin", "Sander Berge" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Noah Sadiki": { "opponents": [ "Sander Berge", "Oscar Bobb" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Enzo Le Fée": { "opponents": [ "Sander Berge" ], "primary_zone": "Holding Mid vs Central Mid — Midfield Anchor Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Trai Hume": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo García" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Nordi Mukiele": { "opponents": [ "Gonzalo García" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Habib Diarra": { "opponents": [ "Kevin" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Robin Roefs": { "opponents": [ "Rodrigo Muniz", "Gonzalo García" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Daniel Ballard": { "opponents": [ "Rodrigo Muniz" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Wilson Isidor": { "opponents": [ "Calvin Bassey", "Antonee Robinson" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Joachim Andersen": { "opponents": [ "Brian Brobbey" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Ryan Sessegnon": { "opponents": [ "Brian Brobbey" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Antonee Robinson": { "opponents": [ "Chris Rigg" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Calvin Bassey": { "opponents": [ "Simon Adingra" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Sander Berge": { "opponents": [ "Noah Sadiki", "Enzo Le Fée", "Simon Adingra" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Gonzalo García": { "opponents": [ "Trai Hume", "Nordi Mukiele" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Kevin": { "opponents": [ "Simon Adingra", "Habib Diarra" ], "primary_zone": "LM vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Joshua King": { "opponents": [ "Chris Rigg" ], "primary_zone": "RM vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Oscar Bobb": { "opponents": [ "Noah Sadiki" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Bernd Leno": { "opponents": [ "Wilson Isidor", "Brian Brobbey" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Rodrigo Muniz": { "opponents": [ "Daniel Ballard", "Trai Hume" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Noah Sadiki vs Oscar Bobb will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.87, Away: 0.37. Home danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle. Away danger zone: RM vs LWB.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.998, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8989, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0535, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.0657, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9239, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9517, "home_midfield_factor": 1.007, "away_midfield_factor": 0.995, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": false, "home_avg_quality": 0.6812, "away_avg_quality": 0.6787, "avg_quality_gap": 0.0025, "squad_value_gap_log": 0.0435, "top5_value_gap_log": 0.1665, "attack_value_gap_log": 0.2582, "elite_count_gap": 1, "combined_quality_gap": 0.0317, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0423, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0505, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.169, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.74, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.1693, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.7405, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.169, "final_away_lambda": 1.02 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 19, "opponent_position": 10, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 10, "opponent_position": 19, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-08-30T13:30:58Z" }