{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Man Utd", "away_team": "Ipswich", "tournament": "Premier League", "date": "20260830", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "3-5-2" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "4-0", "home_goals": 4, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.0916, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Man Utd", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.0362, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "4-0", "probability": 0.0916 }, { "score": "5-0", "probability": 0.088 }, { "score": "3-0", "probability": 0.0763 }, { "score": "6-0", "probability": 0.0704 }, { "score": "4-1", "probability": 0.0652 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.0042, "0-1": 0.0029, "0-2": 0.001, "1-0": 0.0199, "1-1": 0.0142, "1-2": 0.005, "1-3": 0.0012, "2-0": 0.0477, "2-1": 0.034, "2-2": 0.0121, "2-3": 0.0029, "2-4": 0.0005, "3-0": 0.0763, "3-1": 0.0544, "3-2": 0.0194, "3-3": 0.0046, "3-4": 0.0008, "4-0": 0.0916, "4-1": 0.0652, "4-2": 0.0232, "4-3": 0.0055, "4-4": 0.001, "5-0": 0.088, "5-1": 0.0626, "5-2": 0.0223, "5-3": 0.0053, "5-4": 0.0009, "6-0": 0.0704, "6-1": 0.0501, "6-2": 0.0178, "6-3": 0.0042, "6-4": 0.0008, "7-0": 0.0482, "7-1": 0.0344, "7-2": 0.0122, "7-3": 0.0029, "7-4": 0.0005, "8-0": 0.0289, "8-1": 0.0206, "8-2": 0.0073, "8-3": 0.0017, "9-0": 0.0154, "9-1": 0.011, "9-2": 0.0039, "9-3": 0.0009 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.9485, "draw": 0.0362, "away_win": 0.0153 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.9101, "under_2_5_goals": 0.0899, "btts_yes": 0.5051, "btts_no": 0.4949, "home_clean_sheet": 0.4907, "away_clean_sheet": 0.0084 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 88.06, "MCR": 87.8, "ATR": 90.37, "GK": 85.41 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 81.9, "MCR": 67.09, "ATR": 82.54, "GK": 79.81 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Man Utd vs Ipswich. Most likely scoreline: 4-0. Lambdas derived from 7 home and 6 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Matheus Cunha, Bryan Mbeumo (3)", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Kobbie Mainoo vs Julio Enciso will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.98, Away: 0.41. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle." }, "confidence": 0.95, "home_lambda": 4.8, "away_lambda": 0.712 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.9485, "draw": 0.0362, "away_win": 0.0153 }, "favorite": "Man Utd", "favorite_win_probability": 0.9485, "fair_spread": 4.088, "fair_total": 5.512, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Man Utd", "estimate": 4.8, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Ipswich", "estimate": 0.712, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.9101, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.5051, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Man Utd", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4907, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Ipswich", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.0084, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Bryan Mbeumo (Man Utd)", "estimate": 3.07, "probability": 0.9426, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Julio Enciso (Ipswich)", "estimate": 0.1623, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Amad Diallo (Man Utd)", "estimate": 0.2973, "probability": 0.2639, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku (Ipswich)", "estimate": 0.1042, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "high", "expected_total_goals": 5.512, "expected_total_shots": 31, "expected_total_passes": 762, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 16.7, "possession_home_pct": 52.6, "possession_away_pct": 47.4, "notes": "Man Utd projects to control midfield possession" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Man Utd", "favorite_win_probability": 0.9485, "script": "Man Utd is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains favorite-led: fair spread +4.09 goals and fair total 5.51.", "first_half": "Expect high tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 16 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Ipswich must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Man Utd lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Man Utd chance creation leans on Bryan Mbeumo against Leif Davis in Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat; Man Utd projects to control midfield possession.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Man Utd: starters carry the main goal usage through Matheus Cunha, Bryan Mbeumo (3); bench watchlist: Marcus Rashford, Mason Mount.", "Ipswich: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Florentino Luís, Emersonn, Chuba Akpom.", "Assist usage should flow through Youri Tielemans; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Man Utd tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects high tempo, about 16 total first-half shots, and 2.76 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Ipswich is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Man Utd.", "Ipswich wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Man Utd": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "Senne Lammens": { "player_id": 964753, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 1, "height": 193, "market_value": 38000000, "stats": { "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.3795, "rating": 85.4139, "minutes": 82, "total_pass": 23, "accurate_pass": 14, "total_long_balls": 14, "accurate_long_balls": 6, "touches": 29, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 0, "sweeper_actions": 1, "sweeper_accurate": 1, "saves_inside_box": 3, "possession_lost": 8.8639, "duels_won": 1, "duels_lost": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "fouls": 0, "fouls_drawn": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 14, "accurate_own_half_passes": 12, "expected_saves": 0.86, "high_pressure_saves": 0.33, "shots_faced": 1.8, "opponent_faced": "Daizen Maeda, Anis Mehmeti", "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context", "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback", "goals": 0, "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "assists": 0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "expected_assists": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16363634, "match_date": "2026-08-22 11:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": 17, "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": 96668, "season_name": "Premier League 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Hull", "away_team": "Man Utd", "home_score_current": 2.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Man Utd", "opponent": "Hull", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 12812994, "match_date": "2026-07-10", "home_team": "Spain", "away_team": "Belgium", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Belgium", "opponent": "Spain", "stats": { "minutes": 19, "rating": 6.1, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 13, "accurate_pass": 7, "ball_recovery": 2, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.1124 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 14023959, "match_date": "2026-05-24", "home_team": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Brighton & Hove Albion", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 29, "accurate_pass": 13, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": 0.3018 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023956, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Manchester United", "away_team": "Nottingham Forest", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Nottingham Forest", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0008, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 22, "accurate_pass": 18, "clearances": 1, "ball_recovery": 9, "saves": 2, "goals_prevented": -0.089 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14023938, "match_date": "2026-05-09", "home_team": "Sunderland", "away_team": "Manchester United", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Manchester United", "opponent": "Sunderland", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 9.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0004, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 33, "accurate_pass": 19, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6, "saves": 4, "goals_prevented": 1.814 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 13233695, "match_date": "2025-11-18", "home_team": "Belgium", "away_team": "Liechtenstein", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Belgium", "opponent": "Liechtenstein", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 6.9, "assists": 0, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "ball_recovery": 5, "saves": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "World Cup Qual. UEFA", "league_id": "11", "league_slug": "world-championship-qual-uefa", "league_country": "Europe", "season_id": "69427", "season_name": "World Cup Qualification, UEFA 2026", "season_year": "2026" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 15646, "combined_rank_score": 781.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 347.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.0125, "sofascore_appearances": 32.0, "fifa_rank": 1215.0, "fifa_overall": 78.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 10, "squad_role": "starter", "projected_match_rating": 7.4139, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Senne Lammens", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Sergi Cardona", "ranking": 15641 }, { "player_name": "Liam Bonetig", "ranking": 15642 }, { "player_name": "Amadou Haidara", "ranking": 15643 }, { "player_name": "Václav Černý", "ranking": 15644 }, { "player_name": "Florentino Luís", "ranking": 15645 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Jeon Seong-jin", "ranking": 15647 }, { "player_name": "Joaquín Soto", "ranking": 15648 }, { "player_name": "Aaron Astudillo", "ranking": 15649 }, { "player_name": "Diego Sanhueza", "ranking": 15650 }, { "player_name": "Tiago Santos", "ranking": 15651 } ] } } }, "Lisandro Martínez": { "player_id": 859999, "position": "D", "position_depth": "D", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 6, "height": 175, "market_value": 48000000, "stats": { "interceptions": 0, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "clearances": 5, "aerial_won": 0, "rating": 88.6281, "minutes": 95, "total_pass": 69, "accurate_pass": 63, "duels_won": 4, "total_long_balls": 7, "accurate_long_balls": 3, "total_own_half_passes": 45, "accurate_own_half_passes": 43, "total_opp_half_passes": 23, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 20, "crosses_total": 2, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 81, "possession_lost": 6.8112, "dispossessed": 0.0, "duels_lost": 2, "aerial_lost": 1, "total_contest": 1, "won_contest": 1, "ball_recovery": 3, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 2, "fouls_drawn": 2, "blocks": 3, "goal_rate": 0.0, "goals": 0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0853, "expected_assists": 0.0438, "total_shots": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 1, "big_chances_created": 1, "xgot": 0.0, "ball_carries": 27, "total_progression": 78, "progressive_carries": 0, "key_pass": 1, "tackles_in_zone": 1.1, "tackles_won_in_zone": 1.3, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82, "opponent_faced": "Anis Mehmeti", "pressing_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "matchup_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.022, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0553, "fifa_overall": 81.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 12813005, "match_date": "2026-07-19 19:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": 16, "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": 58210, "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026", "home_team": "Spain", "away_team": "Argentina", "home_score_current": 1.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "away", "status_code": 110, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "AET", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Argentina", "opponent": "Spain", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 12812996, "match_date": "2026-07-15", "home_team": "England", "away_team": "Argentina", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Argentina", "opponent": "England", "stats": { "minutes": 72, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0404, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 41, "accurate_pass": 40, "clearances": 4, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 12813015, "match_date": "2026-07-12 01:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": 16, "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": 58210, "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026", "home_team": "Argentina", "away_team": "Switzerland", "home_score_current": 3.0, "away_score_current": 1.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 110, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "AET", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Argentina", "opponent": "Switzerland", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 12812993, "match_date": "2026-07-07", "home_team": "Argentina", "away_team": "Egypt", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Argentina", "opponent": "Egypt", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0194, "expected_assists": 0.0211, "total_shots": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 54, "accurate_pass": 51, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 4, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 12812999, "match_date": "2026-07-03 22:00:00 UTC", "league_name": "World Championship", "league_id": 16, "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": 58210, "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026", "home_team": "Argentina", "away_team": "Cabo Verde", "home_score_current": 3.0, "away_score_current": 2.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 110, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "AET", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Argentina", "opponent": "Cabo Verde", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 15186502, "match_date": "2026-06-22", "home_team": "Argentina", "away_team": "Austria", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Argentina", "opponent": "Austria", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.3, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.2062, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 73, "accurate_pass": 69, "key_pass": 1, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 7, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 4, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "FIFA World Cup", "league_id": "16", "league_slug": "world-championship", "league_country": "World", "season_id": "58210", "season_name": "World Cup 2026", "season_year": "2026" }, { "match_id": 15186854, "match_date": "2026-06-17", "home_team": "Argentina", "away_team": "Algeria", "team_side": "home", 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27, "key_pass": 2, "tackles": 1, "interceptions": 2, "clearances": 2, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 6 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Premier League", "league_id": "17", "league_slug": "premier-league", "league_country": "England", "season_id": "76986", "season_name": "Premier League 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 15645, "combined_rank_score": 1132.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv_filled", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 780.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.6935, "sofascore_appearances": 31.0, "fifa_rank": 1485.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.1185, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Florentino Luís", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Junya Ito", "ranking": 15640 }, { "player_name": "Sergi Cardona", "ranking": 15641 }, { "player_name": "Liam Bonetig", "ranking": 15642 }, { "player_name": "Amadou Haidara", "ranking": 15643 }, { "player_name": "Václav Černý", "ranking": 15644 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Senne Lammens", "ranking": 15646 }, { "player_name": "Jeon Seong-jin", "ranking": 15647 }, { "player_name": "Joaquín Soto", "ranking": 15648 }, { "player_name": "Aaron Astudillo", "ranking": 15649 }, { "player_name": "Diego Sanhueza", "ranking": 15650 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.71, "expected_assists": 0.6, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 376, "interceptions": 7, "tackles": 11, "avg_rating": 75.1, "possession_estimated_pct": 47.4, "pressing_actions_per_90": 7.2 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Amad Diallo", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 44000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.8, "defenders": [ "Sindre Walle Egeli" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.589, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.479, "xg_contribution": 0.2006, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.8, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 2.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Sindre Walle Egeli", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 15900000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.521 } ], "duel_analysis": "Amad Diallo (LWB) is evenly matched against Sindre Walle Egeli in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. The quality gap is significant (€44M vs €16M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.201 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Kobbie Mainoo", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 72000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.873, "defenders": [ "Julio Enciso" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.586, "xg_contribution": 0.0581, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Julio Enciso", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.414 } ], "duel_analysis": "Kobbie Mainoo (CM) is slightly favored against Julio Enciso in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 59%. The quality gap is significant (€72M vs €24M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.058 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Andrey Santos", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 39000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.775, "defenders": [ "Julio Enciso" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.669, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.526, "xg_contribution": 0.1737, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Julio Enciso", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 24000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.1, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.474 } ], "duel_analysis": "Andrey Santos (CM) is slightly favored against Julio Enciso in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 53%. Projected xG contribution: 0.174 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Youri Tielemans", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 43000000, "attacker_height": 177, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.796, "defenders": [ "Jaden Philogene-Bidace" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.619, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.483, "xg_contribution": 0.0578, "shots_in_zone": 1.1, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.9, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.0, "crosses_in_zone": 2.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Jaden Philogene-Bidace", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 18800000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.7, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.0, "defensive_success_rate": 0.517 } ], "duel_analysis": "Youri Tielemans (RWB) is evenly matched against Jaden Philogene-Bidace in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 48%. The quality gap is significant (€43M vs €19M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.058 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Matheus Cunha", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 79000000, "attacker_height": 184, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.881, "defenders": [ "Leif Davis" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.566, "xg_contribution": 0.1512, "shots_in_zone": 2.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Leif Davis", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.434 } ], "duel_analysis": "Matheus Cunha (SS) is slightly favored against Leif Davis in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 57%. The quality gap is significant (€79M vs €21M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.151 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Bryan Mbeumo", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 73000000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.875, "defenders": [ "Leif Davis" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.641, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.519, "xg_contribution": 1.1835, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.4, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.9, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Leif Davis", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.1, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.481 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bryan Mbeumo (SS) is slightly favored against Leif Davis in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 52%. The quality gap is significant (€73M vs €21M avg). Projected xG contribution: 1.184 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Benjamin Šeško", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 78000000, "attacker_height": 195, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.88, "defenders": [ "Leif Davis", "Dara O'Shea" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.621, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.357, "xg_contribution": 0.1511, "shots_in_zone": 2.7, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 2.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "MEDIUM", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Leif Davis", "role": "CB", "market_value": 21000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.9, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.643 }, { "player": "Dara O'Shea", "role": "CB", "market_value": 17000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.0, "clearances_in_zone": 0.8, "aerial_duels_won": 0.4, "defensive_success_rate": 0.643 } ], "duel_analysis": "Benjamin Šeško (ST) faces tough defensive resistance against Leif Davis and Dara O'Shea in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 36%. The quality gap is significant (€78M vs €19M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.151 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Jaden Philogene-Bidace", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 18800000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.619, "defenders": [ "Youri Tielemans" ], "defender_roles": [ "RWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.796, "duel_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.357, "xg_contribution": 0.0468, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.6, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Youri Tielemans", "role": "RWB", "market_value": 43000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.643 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jaden Philogene-Bidace (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Youri Tielemans in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. The quality gap is significant (€19M vs €43M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.047 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Kobbie Mainoo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.873, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.299, "xg_contribution": 0.0427, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kobbie Mainoo", "role": "CM", "market_value": 72000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.701 } ], "duel_analysis": "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Kobbie Mainoo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €72M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.043 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Jack Clarke", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 21000000, "attacker_height": 181, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.641, "defenders": [ "Kobbie Mainoo" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.873, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.303, "xg_contribution": 0.043, "shots_in_zone": 1.3, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Kobbie Mainoo", "role": "CM", "market_value": 72000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.3, "tackles_won": 2.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.4, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.697 } ], "duel_analysis": "Jack Clarke (CM) is heavily outmatched defensively against Kobbie Mainoo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 30%. The quality gap is significant (€21M vs €72M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.043 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Sindre Walle Egeli", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 15900000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.589, "defenders": [ "Amad Diallo" ], "defender_roles": [ "LWB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.8, "duel_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.361, "xg_contribution": 0.0467, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.1, "crosses_in_zone": 2.5, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Amad Diallo", "role": "LWB", "market_value": 44000000, "tackles_attempted": 2.2, "tackles_won": 2.1, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.9, "defensive_success_rate": 0.639 } ], "duel_analysis": "Sindre Walle Egeli (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Amad Diallo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%. The quality gap is significant (€16M vs €44M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.047 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Anis Mehmeti", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 14600000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.575, "defenders": [ "Lisandro Martínez", "Leny Yoro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.813, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0989, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lisandro Martínez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Leny Yoro", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Anis Mehmeti (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Lisandro Martínez and Leny Yoro in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€15M vs €47M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.099 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Daizen Maeda", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 12600000, "attacker_height": 173, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.552, "defenders": [ "Lisandro Martínez", "Leny Yoro" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.813, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.1294, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.3, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.6, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "ULTRA_HIGH", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lisandro Martínez", "role": "CB", "market_value": 48000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "Leny Yoro", "role": "CB", "market_value": 46000000, "tackles_attempted": 1.1, "tackles_won": 1.3, "fouls_committed": 0.4, "interceptions_in_zone": 1.3, "clearances_in_zone": 1.1, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Daizen Maeda (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Lisandro Martínez and Leny Yoro in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. The quality gap is significant (€13M vs €47M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.129 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.836, "away_midfield_power": 0.682, "home_creative_power": 0.918, "away_creative_power": 0.537, "home_defensive_power": 0.948, "away_defensive_power": 0.537, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.551, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Kobbie Mainoo", "Amad Diallo", "Youri Tielemans", "Andrey Santos" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Julio Enciso", "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "Jack Clarke", "Jaden Philogene-Bidace", "Sindre Walle Egeli" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 52.6, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 47.4, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 9.5, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 7.2, "home_key_passes_projected": 7.0, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.7, "home_throughball_threat": 3.4, "away_throughball_threat": 2.2, "key_personal_duel": "Kobbie Mainoo vs Julio Enciso", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 1.03, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 0.969 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "3-5-2", "home_tactical_bonus": 0.02, "away_tactical_bonus": -0.02, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 3-5-2. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 4.8, "away_lambda": 0.712, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "LWB vs RWB" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Amad Diallo": { "opponents": [ "Sindre Walle Egeli", "Jack Clarke" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Kobbie Mainoo": { "opponents": [ "Julio Enciso", "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku", "Jack Clarke", "Sindre Walle Egeli" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Andrey Santos": { "opponents": [ "Julio Enciso", "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Youri Tielemans": { "opponents": [ "Jaden Philogene-Bidace" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Matheus Cunha": { "opponents": [ "Leif Davis" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Bryan Mbeumo": { "opponents": [ "Leif Davis" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Benjamin Šeško": { "opponents": [ "Leif Davis", "Dara O'Shea" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Lisandro Martínez": { "opponents": [ "Anis Mehmeti", "Daizen Maeda" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Leny Yoro": { "opponents": [ "Anis Mehmeti", "Daizen Maeda" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Senne Lammens": { "opponents": [ "Anis Mehmeti", "Daizen Maeda" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Matthijs de Ligt": { "opponents": [ "Anis Mehmeti" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "Sindre Walle Egeli": { "opponents": [ "Amad Diallo", "Kobbie Mainoo" ], "primary_zone": "LWB vs RWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Julio Enciso": { "opponents": [ "Kobbie Mainoo", "Andrey Santos" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jaden Philogene-Bidace": { "opponents": [ "Youri Tielemans" ], "primary_zone": "RWB vs LWB", "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Leif Davis": { "opponents": [ "Matheus Cunha", "Bryan Mbeumo", "Benjamin Šeško" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Dara O'Shea": { "opponents": [ "Benjamin Šeško" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Abdul Fatawu Issahaku": { "opponents": [ "Kobbie Mainoo", "Andrey Santos" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Jack Clarke": { "opponents": [ "Kobbie Mainoo", "Amad Diallo" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Central Mid — Box-to-Box Midfield Contest", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Anis Mehmeti": { "opponents": [ "Lisandro Martínez", "Leny Yoro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Daizen Maeda": { "opponents": [ "Lisandro Martínez", "Leny Yoro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Kjell Scherpen": { "opponents": [ "Matheus Cunha", "Bryan Mbeumo" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jacob Greaves": { "opponents": [ "Matheus Cunha" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Kobbie Mainoo vs Julio Enciso will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 1.98, Away: 0.41. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs Centre Back — Half-Space Threat. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 0.987, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.8743, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.18, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.092, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9657, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.8944, "home_midfield_factor": 1.03, "away_midfield_factor": 0.969, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.8238, "away_avg_quality": 0.6088, "avg_quality_gap": 0.215, "squad_value_gap_log": 1.0917, "top5_value_gap_log": 1.1342, "attack_value_gap_log": 1.1557, "elite_count_gap": 8, "combined_quality_gap": 0.4512, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.95, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.6, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1543, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0882, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": true, "mismatch_score_pressure_gap": 0.4512, "mismatch_favorite_lambda_boost": 1.1178, "mismatch_underdog_lambda_factor": 0.9649, "pre_mismatch_home_lambda": 4.647, "pre_mismatch_away_lambda": 0.738, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": false, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 4.6473, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.7382, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 4.8, "final_away_lambda": 0.712 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 16, "opponent_position": 12, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 12, "opponent_position": 16, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.0, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-08-30T13:31:19Z" }