{ "match_info": { "home_team": "Deportivo", "away_team": "Valencia", "tournament": "LaLiga", "date": "20260830", "timezone": "America/New_York", "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1" }, "prediction": { "most_likely_score": "1-0", "home_goals": 1, "away_goals": 0, "most_likely_score_probability": 0.1525, "match_resolution": "regulation", "predicted_winner": "Deportivo", "tiebreaker": { "applies": false, "method": "none", "regulation_draw_probability": 0.3209, "shootout_home_win_probability": null, "shootout_away_win_probability": null, "penalty_home_goals": null, "penalty_away_goals": null, "penalty_score": null, "penalty_winner": null, "penalty_winner_goals": null, "penalty_loser_goals": null, "penalty_result": null, "home_advance_probability": null, "away_advance_probability": null, "projected_winner": null, "projected_winner_probability": null, "final_score_after_penalties": null, "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context." }, "top_5_scorelines": [ { "score": "1-0", "probability": 0.1525 }, { "score": "0-0", "probability": 0.1524 }, { "score": "1-1", "probability": 0.1356 }, { "score": "0-1", "probability": 0.13 }, { "score": "2-0", "probability": 0.0785 } ], "scoreline_probabilities": { "0-0": 0.1524, "0-1": 0.13, "0-2": 0.0572, "0-3": 0.0166, "0-4": 0.0036, "0-5": 0.0006, "1-0": 0.1525, "1-1": 0.1356, "1-2": 0.0584, "1-3": 0.017, "1-4": 0.0037, "1-5": 0.0006, "2-0": 0.0785, "2-1": 0.0684, "2-2": 0.0298, "2-3": 0.0086, "2-4": 0.0019, "3-0": 0.0267, "3-1": 0.0232, "3-2": 0.0101, "3-3": 0.0029, "3-4": 0.0006, "4-0": 0.0068, "4-1": 0.0059, "4-2": 0.0026, "4-3": 0.0007, "5-0": 0.0014, "5-1": 0.0012, "5-2": 0.0005 }, "outcome": { "home_win": 0.3795, "draw": 0.3209, "away_win": 0.2997 }, "markets": { "over_2_5_goals": 0.2939, "under_2_5_goals": 0.7061, "btts_yes": 0.3733, "btts_no": 0.6267, "home_clean_sheet": 0.4185, "away_clean_sheet": 0.3606 }, "home_ratings": { "DR": 78.48, "MCR": 61.1, "ATR": 28.5, "GK": 83.63 }, "away_ratings": { "DR": 82.95, "MCR": 79.81, "ATR": 84.4, "GK": 85.52 }, "insights": { "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Deportivo vs Valencia. Most likely scoreline: 1-0. Lambdas derived from 5 home and 4 away individual player duels.", "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Jonathan Asp Jensen", "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Lorenzo Amatucci vs Javier Guerra will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.42, Away: 0.34. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle. Away danger zone: RW vs CB." }, "confidence": 0.68, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 0.871 }, "pregame_baseline": { "fair_win_probability": { "home_win": 0.3795, "draw": 0.3209, "away_win": 0.2997 }, "favorite": "Deportivo", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3795, "fair_spread": 0.149, "fair_total": 1.891, "prop_estimates": [ { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Deportivo", "estimate": 1.02, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "team_total_goals", "selection": "Valencia", "estimate": 0.871, "probability": null, "unit": "goals" }, { "market": "over_2_5_goals", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 2.5, "probability": 0.2939, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "both_teams_to_score", "selection": "yes", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3733, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Deportivo", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.4185, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "clean_sheet", "selection": "Valencia", "estimate": 1.0, "probability": 0.3606, "unit": "probability" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Jonathan Asp Jensen (Deportivo)", "estimate": 0.2474, "probability": 0.2705, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "anytime_goal", "selection": "Justin De Haas (Valencia)", "estimate": 0.4199, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xG" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "David Mella (Deportivo)", "estimate": 0.0987, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" }, { "market": "assist", "selection": "Diego López (Valencia)", "estimate": 0.2891, "probability": 0.0, "unit": "xA" } ], "expected_pace": { "tempo": "balanced", "expected_total_goals": 1.891, "expected_total_shots": 25, "expected_total_passes": 705, "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.8, "possession_home_pct": 48.9, "possession_away_pct": 51.1, "notes": "possession projects near even" }, "expected_game_script": { "favorite": "Deportivo", "favorite_win_probability": 0.3795, "script": "Deportivo is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.15 goals and fair total 1.89.", "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.", "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Valencia must keep the match inside one goal.", "late_game": "A Deportivo lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." }, "key_matchup_thesis": "Valencia chance creation leans on Filip Ugrinić against Giacomo Quagliata in RW vs CB; possession projects near even.", "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [ "Deportivo: starters carry the main goal usage through Jonathan Asp Jensen; bench watchlist: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Zakaria Eddahchouri.", "Valencia: starters carry the main goal usage through the highest xG attackers; bench watchlist: Lucas Beltrán, Largie Ramazani, Guido Rodríguez.", "Assist usage should flow through the projected key-pass leaders; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations." ], "pregame_play_by_play": [ "0-15: Deportivo tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.", "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 0.95 first-half xG pace.", "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.", "70-90: If Valencia is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live." ], "invalidation_triggers": [ "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Deportivo.", "Valencia wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.", "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.", "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis." ], "top_3_risk_factors": [ { "factor": "Low-event scoring variance", "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability." }, { "factor": "Late lineup or role change", "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates." }, { "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility", "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly." } ] }, "teams": { "Deportivo": { "formation": "3-4-2-1", "players": { "Leo Román": { "player_id": 1131909, "position": "G", "position_depth": "G", "is_starter": true, "shirt_number": 13, "height": 189, "market_value": 5800000, "stats": { "saves": 1, "goals_prevented": 0.051, "rating": 83.628, "minutes": 89, "total_pass": 40, "accurate_pass": 33, "total_long_balls": 13, "accurate_long_balls": 7, "touches": 47, "clearances": 2, "ball_recovery": 6, "high_claims": 2, "punches": 0.0, "aerial_won": 1, "sweeper_actions": 2, "sweeper_accurate": 2, "saves_inside_box": 2, "possession_lost": 6.4454, "duels_won": 3, "duels_lost": 1, 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"team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 38, "rating": 6.8, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0526, "expected_assists": 0.0341, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 6, "accurate_pass": 3, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 3, "ball_recovery": 2 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083687, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 16, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.1049, "expected_assists": 0.2004, "total_shots": 2, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 3, "key_pass": 1, "duels_won": 1, "ball_recovery": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083639, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 29, "rating": 6.4, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0714, "expected_assists": 0.012, "total_shots": 2, "total_pass": 4, "accurate_pass": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 17911, "combined_rank_score": 1631.0, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 628.0, "sofascore_rating": 6.8037, "sofascore_appearances": 27.0, "fifa_rank": 2634.0, "fifa_overall": 74.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 8, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 6.5955, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Largie Ramazani", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Djaoui Cissé", "ranking": 17906 }, { "player_name": "Ramiz Zerrouki", "ranking": 17907 }, { "player_name": "Mohamed Elyounoussi", "ranking": 17908 }, { "player_name": "Adrian Beck", "ranking": 17909 }, { "player_name": "Thibo Somers", "ranking": 17910 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Carlo Holse", "ranking": 17912 }, { "player_name": "Martín Payero", "ranking": 17913 }, { "player_name": "Kingsley Ehizibue", "ranking": 17914 }, { "player_name": "Jeffrey De Lange", "ranking": 17915 }, { "player_name": "Robin Lod", "ranking": 17916 } ] } } }, "Guido Rodríguez": { "player_id": 609752, "position": "M", "position_depth": "M_BENCH", "is_starter": false, "shirt_number": 2, "height": 185, "market_value": 5200000, "stats": { "key_pass": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0026, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0, "rating": 84.1586, "minutes": 22, "total_pass": 9, "accurate_pass": 8, "ball_recovery": 1, "duels_won": 1, "total_shots": 0, "total_long_balls": 1, "accurate_long_balls": 1, "total_own_half_passes": 4, "accurate_own_half_passes": 4, "total_opp_half_passes": 5, "accurate_opp_half_passes": 4, "crosses_total": 0, "crosses_accurate": 0, "touches": 11, "possession_lost": 1.5777, "dispossessed": 0.9894, "duels_lost": 1, "aerial_won": 0, "aerial_lost": 2, "interceptions": 0, "tackles_won": 0, "tackles": 1, "clearances": 0, "total_contest": 0, "won_contest": 0, "challenges_lost": 1, "fouls": 1, "fouls_drawn": 0, "goal_rate": 0.2427, "goals": 0, "shots_on_target": 0, "shots_off_target": 0, "blocks": 0, "big_chances_created": 0, "big_chances_missed": 0, "xgot": 0.0437, "ball_carries": 2, "total_progression": 6, "progressive_carries": 0, "bench_appearance_probability": 0.504, "bench_expected_minutes": 22.08, "projected_substitution_order": 3, "substitution_rule_cap": 5, "projected_team_substitution_count": 3, "projected_substitution_expected_count": 2.444, "projected_substitution_game_state_adjustment": 1, "substitution_usage": "projected_used_substitute", "projected_goals": 0, "goal_probability": 0.0, "projected_assists": 0, "assist_probability": 0.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0 }, "latest_10_games": [ { "match_type": "played", "match_id": 16416298, "match_date": "2026-08-22 17:30:00 UTC", "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": 8, "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": 97268, "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27", "season_year": "26/27", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Celta", "home_score_current": 0.0, "away_score_current": 0.0, "team_side": "home", "status_code": 100, "status_type": "finished", "status_description": "Ended", "player_status": "starter", "is_starting_11": true, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Celta", "stats": {}, "has_player_stats": false, "source": "depth_chart.csv" }, { "match_id": 14083739, "match_date": "2026-05-23", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "FC Barcelona", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "FC Barcelona", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.9, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0624, "expected_assists": 0.0058, "total_shots": 1, "shots_on_target": 1, "total_pass": 25, "accurate_pass": 21, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 8, "ball_recovery": 4 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083687, "match_date": "2026-05-17", "home_team": "Real Sociedad", "away_team": "Valencia", "team_side": "away", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Real Sociedad", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 8.4, "goal_rate": 1.0, "goals": 1, "assists": 0, "expected_goals": 0.0705, "expected_assists": 0.0119, "total_shots": 2, "shots_on_target": 1, "shots_off_target": 1, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 45, "tackles": 4, "tackles_won": 2, "interceptions": 1, "clearances": 1, "aerial_won": 3, "duels_won": 9, "ball_recovery": 7 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 14083639, "match_date": "2026-05-14", "home_team": "Valencia", "away_team": "Rayo Vallecano", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 1, "team": "Valencia", "opponent": "Rayo Vallecano", "stats": { "minutes": 90, "rating": 7.0, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.021, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 53, "accurate_pass": 46, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "aerial_won": 1, "duels_won": 6, "ball_recovery": 3 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "LaLiga", "league_id": "8", "league_slug": "laliga", "league_country": "Spain", "season_id": "77559", "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26", "season_year": "25/26" }, { "match_id": 11886396, "match_date": "2024-06-30", "home_team": "Argentina", "away_team": "Peru", "team_side": "home", "is_starting_11": 0, "team": "Argentina", "opponent": "Peru", "stats": { "minutes": 13, "rating": 6.6, "assists": 0, "expected_assists": 0.0017, "total_shots": 0, "total_pass": 18, "accurate_pass": 17, "tackles": 1, "tackles_won": 1, "duels_won": 1 }, "has_player_stats": true, "league_name": "Copa América", "league_id": "133", "league_slug": "copa-america", "league_country": "South America", "season_id": "57114", "season_name": "Copa America 2024", "season_year": "2024" } ], "ranking": { "global_player_rank": 15859, "combined_rank_score": 856.5, "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv", "ranking_status": "combined", "sofascore_rank": 187.0, "sofascore_rating": 7.225, "sofascore_appearances": 16.0, "fifa_rank": 1526.0, "fifa_overall": 77.0, "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings", "match_squad_rank": 12, "squad_role": "substitute", "projected_match_rating": 7.1586, "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv", "player_name": "Guido Rodríguez", "ranking_neighbors": { "upper": [ { "player_name": "Joaquín Larrivey", "ranking": 15854 }, { "player_name": "Oğuz Aydın", "ranking": 15855 }, { "player_name": "Edon Zhegrova", "ranking": 15856 }, { "player_name": "Malo Gusto", "ranking": 15857 }, { "player_name": "Conor Bradley", "ranking": 15858 } ], "lower": [ { "player_name": "Adam Hložek", "ranking": 15860 }, { "player_name": "Fran García", "ranking": 15861 }, { "player_name": "Pep Biel", "ranking": 15862 }, { "player_name": "Nicolò Rovella", "ranking": 15863 }, { "player_name": "Ali Auglah", "ranking": 15864 } ] } } } }, "team_totals": { "projected_goals": 0, "expected_goals": 0.87, "expected_assists": 0.64, "total_shots": 13, "shots_on_target": 3, "total_passes": 344, "interceptions": 6, "tackles": 12, "avg_rating": 81.89, "possession_estimated_pct": 51.1, "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6 } } }, "antagonist_report": { "home_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Bil Nsongo", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 3200000, "attacker_height": 182, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44, "defenders": [ "César Tárrega", "José Copete" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.485, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.18, "xg_contribution": 0.0949, "shots_in_zone": 2.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.3, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.7, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "César Tárrega", "role": "CB", "market_value": 9300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.7, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 }, { "player": "José Copete", "role": "CB", "market_value": 4500000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.1, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.82 } ], "duel_analysis": "Bil Nsongo (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against César Tárrega and José Copete in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 18%. Projected xG contribution: 0.095 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "Yeremay Hernández", "attacker_role": "SS", "attacker_market_value": 23000000, "attacker_height": 169, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.66, "defenders": [ "Pepelu", "César Tárrega" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.502, "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.281, "xg_contribution": 0.1246, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.5, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pepelu", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 7300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.719 }, { "player": "César Tárrega", "role": "CB", "market_value": 9300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.6, "defensive_success_rate": 0.719 } ], "duel_analysis": "Yeremay Hernández (SS) is heavily outmatched defensively against Pepelu and César Tárrega in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 28%. Projected xG contribution: 0.125 — with very limited chance creation expected." }, { "attacker": "David Mella", "attacker_role": "LWB", "attacker_market_value": 4500000, "attacker_height": 169, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.456, "defenders": [ "José Luis Gayà" ], "defender_roles": [ "RB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.454, "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.389, "xg_contribution": 0.0469, "shots_in_zone": 1.0, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "José Luis Gayà", "role": "RB", "market_value": 4300000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.611 } ], "duel_analysis": "David Mella (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against José Luis Gayà in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 39%. Projected xG contribution: 0.047 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Angeliño", "attacker_role": "RWB", "attacker_market_value": 4200000, "attacker_height": 171, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.452, "defenders": [ "Justin De Haas" ], "defender_roles": [ "LB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.495, "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.321, "xg_contribution": 0.042, "shots_in_zone": 0.9, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.6, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.2, "fouls_drawn": 1.3, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Justin De Haas", "role": "LB", "market_value": 7700000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.9, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.2, "defensive_success_rate": 0.679 } ], "duel_analysis": "Angeliño (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Justin De Haas in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 32%. Projected xG contribution: 0.042 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." }, { "attacker": "Lorenzo Amatucci", "attacker_role": "CM", "attacker_market_value": 8199999, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.501, "defenders": [ "Pepelu" ], "defender_roles": [ "CDM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.49, "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.403, "xg_contribution": 0.109, "shots_in_zone": 1.6, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.7, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Pepelu", "role": "CDM", "market_value": 7300000, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.8, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.597 } ], "duel_analysis": "Lorenzo Amatucci (CM) faces tough defensive resistance against Pepelu in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%. Projected xG contribution: 0.109 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball." } ], "away_attacking_duels": [ { "attacker": "Diego López", "attacker_role": "LW", "attacker_market_value": 9600000, "attacker_height": 172, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.518, "defenders": [ "Giacomo Quagliata" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.426, "duel_zone": "LW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.441, "xg_contribution": 0.0591, "shots_in_zone": 1.8, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 0.8, "crosses_in_zone": 2.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.2, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Giacomo Quagliata", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 1.1, "defensive_success_rate": 0.559 } ], "duel_analysis": "Diego López (LW) is evenly matched against Giacomo Quagliata in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 44%. Projected xG contribution: 0.059 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Javier Guerra", "attacker_role": "CAM", "attacker_market_value": 26000000, "attacker_height": 187, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.686, "defenders": [ "Lorenzo Amatucci" ], "defender_roles": [ "CM" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.501, "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.563, "xg_contribution": 0.0638, "shots_in_zone": 2.6, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.5, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Lorenzo Amatucci", "role": "CM", "market_value": 8199999, "tackles_attempted": 2.0, "tackles_won": 1.5, "fouls_committed": 0.5, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8, "clearances_in_zone": 0.5, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.437 } ], "duel_analysis": "Javier Guerra (CAM) is slightly favored against Lorenzo Amatucci in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 56%. The quality gap is significant (€26M vs €8M avg). Projected xG contribution: 0.064 — creating consistent moderate threat." }, { "attacker": "Filip Ugrinić", "attacker_role": "RW", "attacker_market_value": 5700000, "attacker_height": 185, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.471, "defenders": [ "Giacomo Quagliata" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.426, "duel_zone": "RW vs CB", "numerical_situation": "1v1", "duel_win_rate": 0.472, "xg_contribution": 0.2152, "shots_in_zone": 1.9, "dribbles_attempted": 3, "dribbles_successful": 1.2, "aerial_duels": 2, "aerial_won": 1.2, "crosses_in_zone": 1.9, "fouls_drawn": 1.1, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Giacomo Quagliata", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.9, "tackles_won": 1.6, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.8, "defensive_success_rate": 0.528 } ], "duel_analysis": "Filip Ugrinić (RW) is evenly matched against Giacomo Quagliata in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 47%. Projected xG contribution: 0.215 — with neither side clearly dominant." }, { "attacker": "Hugo Duro", "attacker_role": "ST", "attacker_market_value": 11600000, "attacker_height": 180, "attacker_skill_quality": 0.541, "defenders": [ "Giacomo Quagliata", "Adrià Altimira" ], "defender_roles": [ "CB", "CB" ], "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.424, "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "numerical_situation": "1v2", "duel_win_rate": 0.279, "xg_contribution": 0.0047, "shots_in_zone": 2.4, "dribbles_attempted": 2, "dribbles_successful": 0.5, "aerial_duels": 3, "aerial_won": 1.6, "crosses_in_zone": 0.0, "fouls_drawn": 1.4, "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW", "defender_stats": [ { "player": "Giacomo Quagliata", "role": "CB", "market_value": 2100000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.721 }, { "player": "Adrià Altimira", "role": "CB", "market_value": 1700000, "tackles_attempted": 1.0, "tackles_won": 1.0, "fouls_committed": 0.6, "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7, "clearances_in_zone": 0.6, "aerial_duels_won": 0.7, "defensive_success_rate": 0.721 } ], "duel_analysis": "Hugo Duro (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Giacomo Quagliata and Adrià Altimira in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 28%. Projected xG contribution: 0.005 — with very limited chance creation expected." } ], "midfield_battle": { "home_midfield_power": 0.492, "away_midfield_power": 0.578, "home_creative_power": 0.397, "away_creative_power": 0.48, "home_defensive_power": 0.397, "away_defensive_power": 0.451, "home_dominance_ratio": 0.46, "home_midfield_count": 4, "away_midfield_count": 5, "home_midfield_players": [ "Lorenzo Amatucci", "Mario Soriano", "David Mella", "Angeliño" ], "away_midfield_players": [ "Javier Guerra", "Diego López", "Pepelu", "André Almeida", "Filip Ugrinić" ], "possession_advantage": "neutral", "estimated_possession_home_pct": 48.9, "estimated_possession_away_pct": 51.1, "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2, "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.6, "home_key_passes_projected": 3.9, "away_key_passes_projected": 4.4, "home_throughball_threat": 1.8, "away_throughball_threat": 2.0, "key_personal_duel": "Lorenzo Amatucci vs Javier Guerra", "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.987, "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.016 }, "formation_analysis": { "home_formation": "3-4-2-1", "away_formation": "4-2-3-1", "home_tactical_bonus": -0.05, "away_tactical_bonus": 0.05, "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 3-4-2-1 and 4-2-3-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality." }, "home_lambda": 1.02, "away_lambda": 0.871, "home_top_threat_zones": [ "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel" ], "away_top_threat_zones": [ "RW vs CB", "CAM vs CM" ], "home_player_antagonists": { "Bil Nsongo": { "opponents": [ "César Tárrega", "José Copete" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "Yeremay Hernández": { "opponents": [ "Pepelu", "César Tárrega" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "David Mella": { "opponents": [ "José Luis Gayà", "André Almeida" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Angeliño": { "opponents": [ "Justin De Haas", "Diego López" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Lorenzo Amatucci": { "opponents": [ "Pepelu", "Javier Guerra", "Filip Ugrinić" ], "primary_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel", "source": "attacking_duel, defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Giacomo Quagliata": { "opponents": [ "Diego López", "Filip Ugrinić", "Hugo Duro" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Adrià Altimira": { "opponents": [ "Hugo Duro" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Mario Soriano": { "opponents": [ "Pepelu" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Leo Román": { "opponents": [ "Hugo Duro", "Javier Guerra" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Lucas Noubi": { "opponents": [ "Hugo Duro" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" }, "Jonathan Asp Jensen": { "opponents": [ "Justin De Haas", "José Copete" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "away_player_antagonists": { "César Tárrega": { "opponents": [ "Bil Nsongo", "Yeremay Hernández" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "José Copete": { "opponents": [ "Bil Nsongo" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Pepelu": { "opponents": [ "Yeremay Hernández", "Lorenzo Amatucci", "Mario Soriano" ], "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle", "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "José Luis Gayà": { "opponents": [ "David Mella" ], "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Justin De Haas": { "opponents": [ "Angeliño" ], "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run", "source": "defensive_duel" }, "Diego López": { "opponents": [ "Giacomo Quagliata", "Angeliño" ], "primary_zone": "LW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Javier Guerra": { "opponents": [ "Lorenzo Amatucci" ], "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Filip Ugrinić": { "opponents": [ "Giacomo Quagliata", "Lorenzo Amatucci" ], "primary_zone": "RW vs CB", "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing" }, "Hugo Duro": { "opponents": [ "Giacomo Quagliata", "Adrià Altimira" ], "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle", "source": "attacking_duel" }, "André Almeida": { "opponents": [ "David Mella" ], "primary_zone": "Midfield lane", "source": "midfield_pairing" }, "Stole Dimitrievski": { "opponents": [ "Jonathan Asp Jensen", "Yeremay Hernández" ], "primary_zone": "Shape fallback", "source": "formation_fallback" } }, "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Lorenzo Amatucci vs Javier Guerra will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.42, Away: 0.34. Home danger zone: Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle. Away danger zone: RW vs CB.", "lambda_factors": { "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0152, "away_gk_opposition_factor": 0.9965, "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.0, "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.1701, "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9919, "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0265, "home_midfield_factor": 0.987, "away_midfield_factor": 1.016, "stage_discount": 1.0, "quality_gap_applied": true, "home_avg_quality": 0.4681, "away_avg_quality": 0.5101, "avg_quality_gap": -0.0421, "squad_value_gap_log": -0.4237, "top5_value_gap_log": -0.3086, "attack_value_gap_log": -0.2153, "elite_count_gap": 0, "combined_quality_gap": -0.0837, "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.1841, "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.1172, "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.076, "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.0519, "home_bench_players_modelled": 7, "away_bench_players_modelled": 7, "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false, "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true, "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02, "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 0.726, "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.871, "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 0.726, "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.8709, "competition_calibration_applied": false, "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data", "competition_calibration_samples": 0, "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0, "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0, "neutral_share_preserved": false, "final_home_lambda": 1.02, "final_away_lambda": 0.871 } }, "home_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 8, "opponent_position": 17, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.7263, "attack_index": 0.418, "defense_concede_index": 1.0, "form_multiplier": 1.046, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.5, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0, "team_ppg": 1.0, "opponent_ppg": 0.0 }, "away_standing": { "available": true, "team_position": 17, "opponent_position": 8, "standing_lambda_multiplier": 0.708, "attack_index": 1.0, "defense_concede_index": 0.418, "form_multiplier": 0.954, "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0, "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.5, "team_ppg": 0.0, "opponent_ppg": 1.0 }, "timestamp": "2026-08-30T13:31:20Z" }