{
  "match_info": {
    "home_team": "Osasuna",
    "away_team": "Getafe",
    "tournament": "LaLiga",
    "date": "20260831",
    "timezone": "America/New_York",
    "home_formation": "4-2-3-1",
    "away_formation": "3-4-2-1"
  },
  "prediction": {
    "most_likely_score": "1-1",
    "home_goals": 1,
    "away_goals": 1,
    "most_likely_score_probability": 0.125,
    "match_resolution": "draw",
    "predicted_winner": null,
    "tiebreaker": {
      "applies": false,
      "method": "none",
      "regulation_draw_probability": 0.2637,
      "shootout_home_win_probability": null,
      "shootout_away_win_probability": null,
      "penalty_home_goals": null,
      "penalty_away_goals": null,
      "penalty_score": null,
      "penalty_winner": null,
      "penalty_winner_goals": null,
      "penalty_loser_goals": null,
      "penalty_result": null,
      "home_advance_probability": null,
      "away_advance_probability": null,
      "projected_winner": null,
      "projected_winner_probability": null,
      "final_score_after_penalties": null,
      "reason": "Tie-breaker not required for this match context."
    },
    "top_5_scorelines": [
      {
        "score": "1-1",
        "probability": 0.125
      },
      {
        "score": "1-0",
        "probability": 0.1206
      },
      {
        "score": "2-1",
        "probability": 0.0916
      },
      {
        "score": "2-0",
        "probability": 0.0898
      },
      {
        "score": "0-0",
        "probability": 0.0833
      }
    ],
    "scoreline_probabilities": {
      "0-0": 0.0833,
      "0-1": 0.083,
      "0-2": 0.0428,
      "0-3": 0.0146,
      "0-4": 0.0037,
      "0-5": 0.0008,
      "1-0": 0.1206,
      "1-1": 0.125,
      "1-2": 0.0633,
      "1-3": 0.0215,
      "1-4": 0.0055,
      "1-5": 0.0011,
      "2-0": 0.0898,
      "2-1": 0.0916,
      "2-2": 0.0467,
      "2-3": 0.0159,
      "2-4": 0.0041,
      "2-5": 0.0008,
      "3-0": 0.0442,
      "3-1": 0.0451,
      "3-2": 0.023,
      "3-3": 0.0078,
      "3-4": 0.002,
      "4-0": 0.0163,
      "4-1": 0.0167,
      "4-2": 0.0085,
      "4-3": 0.0029,
      "4-4": 0.0007,
      "5-0": 0.0048,
      "5-1": 0.0049,
      "5-2": 0.0025,
      "5-3": 0.0009,
      "6-0": 0.0012,
      "6-1": 0.0012,
      "6-2": 0.0006
    },
    "outcome": {
      "home_win": 0.4761,
      "draw": 0.2637,
      "away_win": 0.2602
    },
    "markets": {
      "over_2_5_goals": 0.4554,
      "under_2_5_goals": 0.5446,
      "btts_yes": 0.4944,
      "btts_no": 0.5056,
      "home_clean_sheet": 0.3606,
      "away_clean_sheet": 0.2283
    },
    "home_ratings": {
      "DR": 84.01,
      "MCR": 83.18,
      "ATR": 84.46,
      "GK": 85.37
    },
    "away_ratings": {
      "DR": 80.66,
      "MCR": 80.18,
      "ATR": 84.86,
      "GK": 87.91
    },
    "insights": {
      "summary": "Antagonist matchup analysis for Osasuna vs Getafe. Most likely scoreline: 1-1. Lambdas derived from 4 home and 5 away individual player duels.",
      "key_player": "Projected scorer(s): Raúl García de Haro, Martín Satriano",
      "tactical_analysis": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality. Midfield is evenly contested — Jon Moncayola vs Mario Martín will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.50, Away: 0.50. Home danger zone: LW vs CB. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle."
    },
    "confidence": 0.74,
    "home_lambda": 1.477,
    "away_lambda": 1.02
  },
  "pregame_baseline": {
    "fair_win_probability": {
      "home_win": 0.4761,
      "draw": 0.2637,
      "away_win": 0.2602
    },
    "favorite": "Osasuna",
    "favorite_win_probability": 0.4761,
    "fair_spread": 0.457,
    "fair_total": 2.497,
    "prop_estimates": [
      {
        "market": "team_total_goals",
        "selection": "Osasuna",
        "estimate": 1.477,
        "probability": null,
        "unit": "goals"
      },
      {
        "market": "team_total_goals",
        "selection": "Getafe",
        "estimate": 1.02,
        "probability": null,
        "unit": "goals"
      },
      {
        "market": "over_2_5_goals",
        "selection": "yes",
        "estimate": 2.5,
        "probability": 0.4554,
        "unit": "probability"
      },
      {
        "market": "both_teams_to_score",
        "selection": "yes",
        "estimate": 1.0,
        "probability": 0.4944,
        "unit": "probability"
      },
      {
        "market": "clean_sheet",
        "selection": "Osasuna",
        "estimate": 1.0,
        "probability": 0.3606,
        "unit": "probability"
      },
      {
        "market": "clean_sheet",
        "selection": "Getafe",
        "estimate": 1.0,
        "probability": 0.2283,
        "unit": "probability"
      },
      {
        "market": "anytime_goal",
        "selection": "Enzo Boyomo (Osasuna)",
        "estimate": 0.4931,
        "probability": 0.1222,
        "unit": "xG"
      },
      {
        "market": "anytime_goal",
        "selection": "Martín Satriano (Getafe)",
        "estimate": 0.3089,
        "probability": 0.4202,
        "unit": "xG"
      },
      {
        "market": "assist",
        "selection": "Valentin Rosier (Osasuna)",
        "estimate": 0.1276,
        "probability": 0.0698,
        "unit": "xA"
      },
      {
        "market": "assist",
        "selection": "Francho Serrano (Getafe)",
        "estimate": 0.0982,
        "probability": 0.0,
        "unit": "xA"
      }
    ],
    "expected_pace": {
      "tempo": "balanced",
      "expected_total_goals": 2.497,
      "expected_total_shots": 25,
      "expected_total_passes": 516,
      "expected_pressing_actions_per_90": 12.5,
      "possession_home_pct": 49.9,
      "possession_away_pct": 50.1,
      "notes": "possession projects near even"
    },
    "expected_game_script": {
      "favorite": "Osasuna",
      "favorite_win_probability": 0.4761,
      "script": "Osasuna is the fair winner side, but the baseline remains narrow: fair spread +0.46 goals and fair total 2.50.",
      "first_half": "Expect balanced tempo while both sides test the matchup thesis; shot baseline is about 12 first-half attempts.",
      "second_half": "If level after halftime, midfield control and bench quality should decide territory; Getafe must keep the match inside one goal.",
      "late_game": "A Osasuna lead likely shifts toward control and counters; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live."
    },
    "key_matchup_thesis": "Osasuna chance creation leans on Aimar Oroz against Abdel Abqar in LW vs CB; possession projects near even.",
    "expected_rotation_usage_behavior": [
      "Osasuna: starters carry the main goal usage through Raúl García de Haro; bench watchlist: Ante Budimir, Moi Gómez.",
      "Getafe: starters carry the main goal usage through Martín Satriano; bench watchlist: Borja Mayoral, Adrian Liso.",
      "Assist usage should flow through Jon Moncayola; late lineup changes should re-score these allocations."
    ],
    "pregame_play_by_play": [
      "0-15: Osasuna tries to establish the projected edge; track possession and first-shot share.",
      "15-45: Baseline expects balanced tempo, about 12 total first-half shots, and 1.25 first-half xG pace.",
      "45-70: If the match is level, watch midfield control and the listed bench watchlists for usage changes.",
      "70-90: If Getafe is chasing, transition and set-piece volume become the primary live deviation signal; a draw state keeps set pieces and transition chances live."
    ],
    "invalidation_triggers": [
      "Early red card, injury, or goalkeeper change for Osasuna.",
      "Getafe wins the midfield/territory battle beyond the possession baseline.",
      "Pace collapses: first 25 minutes fall well below the shot and box-entry baseline.",
      "Set pieces, penalties, or second balls create more danger than the open-play matchup thesis."
    ],
    "top_3_risk_factors": [
      {
        "factor": "Low-event scoring variance",
        "impact": "One penalty, deflection, or missed big chance can overwhelm the fair win probability."
      },
      {
        "factor": "Late lineup or role change",
        "impact": "A pregame XI, injury, or tactical role shift can invalidate player prop and usage estimates."
      },
      {
        "factor": "Discipline and set-piece volatility",
        "impact": "Cards, fouls in dangerous zones, and corner volume can change the expected game script quickly."
      }
    ]
  },
  "teams": {
    "Osasuna": {
      "formation": "4-2-3-1",
      "players": {
        "Sergio Herrera": {
          "player_id": 294377,
          "position": "G",
          "position_depth": "G",
          "is_starter": true,
          "shirt_number": 1,
          "height": 192,
          "market_value": 2600000,
          "stats": {
            "saves": 1,
            "goals_prevented": 0.0,
            "rating": 85.3677,
            "minutes": 88,
            "total_pass": 26,
            "accurate_pass": 18,
            "total_long_balls": 14,
            "accurate_long_balls": 6,
            "touches": 35,
            "clearances": 2,
            "ball_recovery": 9,
            "high_claims": 1,
            "punches": 0.0,
            "aerial_won": 0,
            "sweeper_actions": 1,
            "sweeper_accurate": 1,
            "saves_inside_box": 1,
            "possession_lost": 7.3592,
            "duels_won": 1,
            "duels_lost": 0,
            "total_contest": 0,
            "won_contest": 0,
            "fouls": 0,
            "fouls_drawn": 1,
            "total_own_half_passes": 14,
            "accurate_own_half_passes": 12,
            "expected_saves": 1.05,
            "high_pressure_saves": 0.4,
            "shots_faced": 2.2,
            "opponent_faced": "Martín Satriano, Christantus Uche",
            "matchup_zone": "Goalkeeper shot-stopping context",
            "antagonist_source": "formation_fallback",
            "goals": 0,
            "projected_goals": 0,
            "goal_probability": 0.0,
            "assists": 0,
            "projected_assists": 0,
            "assist_probability": 0.0,
            "expected_goals": 0.0,
            "expected_assists": 0.0,
            "fifa_overall": 79.0
          },
          "latest_10_games": [
            {
              "match_type": "played",
              "match_id": 16416296,
              "match_date": "2026-08-24 17:30:00 UTC",
              "league_name": "LaLiga",
              "league_id": 8,
              "league_slug": "laliga",
              "league_country": "Spain",
              "season_id": 97268,
              "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27",
              "season_year": "26/27",
              "home_team": "Osasuna",
              "away_team": "Levante",
              "home_score_current": 0.0,
              "away_score_current": 0.0,
              "team_side": "home",
              "status_code": 100,
              "status_type": "finished",
              "status_description": "Ended",
              "player_status": "starter",
              "is_starting_11": true,
              "team": "Osasuna",
              "opponent": "Levante",
              "stats": {},
              "has_player_stats": false,
              "source": "depth_chart.csv"
            },
            {
              "match_id": 14083723,
              "match_date": "2026-05-23",
              "home_team": "Getafe",
              "away_team": "Osasuna",
              "team_side": "away",
              "is_starting_11": 1,
              "team": "Osasuna",
              "opponent": "Getafe",
              "stats": {
                "minutes": 90,
                "rating": 6.6,
                "assists": 0,
                "expected_assists": 0.0034,
                "total_shots": 0,
                "total_pass": 19,
                "accurate_pass": 9,
                "duels_won": 1,
                "ball_recovery": 5,
                "saves": 2,
                "goals_prevented": -0.7671
              },
              "has_player_stats": true,
              "league_name": "LaLiga",
              "league_id": "8",
              "league_slug": "laliga",
              "league_country": "Spain",
              "season_id": "77559",
              "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26",
              "season_year": "25/26"
            },
            {
              "match_id": 14083696,
              "match_date": "2026-05-17",
              "home_team": "Osasuna",
              "away_team": "Espanyol",
              "team_side": "home",
              "is_starting_11": 1,
              "team": "Osasuna",
              "opponent": "Espanyol",
              "stats": {
                "minutes": 90,
                "rating": 6.9,
                "assists": 0,
                "expected_assists": 0.0017,
                "total_shots": 0,
                "total_pass": 33,
                "accurate_pass": 28,
                "clearances": 2,
                "ball_recovery": 13,
                "saves": 1,
                "goals_prevented": -0.6195
              },
              "has_player_stats": true,
              "league_name": "LaLiga",
              "league_id": "8",
              "league_slug": "laliga",
              "league_country": "Spain",
              "season_id": "77559",
              "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26",
              "season_year": "25/26"
            }
          ],
          "ranking": {
            "global_player_rank": 14947,
            "combined_rank_score": 589.5,
            "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv",
            "ranking_status": "combined",
            "sofascore_rank": 361.0,
            "sofascore_rating": 6.9919,
            "sofascore_appearances": 37.0,
            "fifa_rank": 818.0,
            "fifa_overall": 79.0,
            "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings",
            "match_squad_rank": 14,
            "squad_role": "starter",
            "projected_match_rating": 6.3677,
            "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv",
            "player_name": "Sergio Herrera",
            "ranking_neighbors": {
              "upper": [
                {
                  "player_name": "Hakon Arnar Haraldsson",
                  "ranking": 14942
                },
                {
                  "player_name": "Nico González",
                  "ranking": 14943
                },
                {
                  "player_name": "Harry Sawyer",
                  "ranking": 14944
                },
                {
                  "player_name": "João Pedro",
                  "ranking": 14945
                },
                {
                  "player_name": "Matheus Nunes",
                  "ranking": 14946
                }
              ],
              "lower": [
                {
                  "player_name": "Sung-hoon Cho",
                  "ranking": 14948
                },
                {
                  "player_name": "Oybek Rustamov",
                  "ranking": 14949
                },
                {
                  "player_name": "Alejandro Tobar",
                  "ranking": 14950
                },
                {
                  "player_name": "Yeiber Murillo",
                  "ranking": 14951
                },
                {
                  "player_name": "İlkay Gündoğan",
                  "ranking": 14952
                }
              ]
            }
          }
        },
        "Enzo Boyomo": {
          "player_id": 1067582,
          "position": "D",
          "position_depth": "D",
          "is_starter": true,
          "shirt_number": 22,
          "height": 181,
          "market_value": 14600000,
          "stats": {
            "interceptions": 1,
            "tackles": 1,
            "tackles_won": 1,
            "clearances": 4,
            "aerial_won": 0,
            "rating": 84.6659,
            "minutes": 92,
            "total_pass": 49,
            "accurate_pass": 45,
            "duels_won": 3,
            "total_long_balls": 4,
            "accurate_long_balls": 2,
            "total_own_half_passes": 22,
            "accurate_own_half_passes": 22,
            "total_opp_half_passes": 27,
            "accurate_opp_half_passes": 24,
            "crosses_total": 1,
            "crosses_accurate": 0,
            "touches": 59,
            "possession_lost": 5.1122,
            "dispossessed": 0.0,
            "duels_lost": 4,
            "aerial_lost": 1,
            "total_contest": 0,
            "won_contest": 0,
            "ball_recovery": 4,
            "challenges_lost": 1,
            "fouls": 2,
            "fouls_drawn": 0,
            "blocks": 0,
            "goal_rate": 0.0,
            "goals": 0,
            "assists": 0,
            "expected_goals": 0.4931,
            "expected_assists": 0.0102,
            "total_shots": 1,
            "shots_on_target": 1,
            "shots_off_target": 2,
            "big_chances_created": 0,
            "xgot": 0.1227,
            "ball_carries": 16,
            "total_progression": 66,
            "progressive_carries": 1,
            "key_pass": 1,
            "tackles_in_zone": 2.0,
            "tackles_won_in_zone": 2.0,
            "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9,
            "clearances_in_zone": 0.5,
            "aerial_duels_won": 1.0,
            "defensive_success_rate": 0.677,
            "opponent_faced": "Francho Serrano",
            "pressing_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run",
            "matchup_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run",
            "antagonist_source": "defensive_duel",
            "projected_goals": 0,
            "goal_probability": 0.1222,
            "projected_assists": 0,
            "assist_probability": 0.0437,
            "fifa_overall": 78.0
          },
          "latest_10_games": [
            {
              "match_type": "played",
              "match_id": 16416296,
              "match_date": "2026-08-24 17:30:00 UTC",
              "league_name": "LaLiga",
              "league_id": 8,
              "league_slug": "laliga",
              "league_country": "Spain",
              "season_id": 97268,
              "season_name": "LaLiga 26/27",
              "season_year": "26/27",
              "home_team": "Osasuna",
              "away_team": "Levante",
              "home_score_current": 0.0,
              "away_score_current": 0.0,
              "team_side": "home",
              "status_code": 100,
              "status_type": "finished",
              "status_description": "Ended",
              "player_status": "starter",
              "is_starting_11": true,
              "team": "Osasuna",
              "opponent": "Levante",
              "stats": {},
              "has_player_stats": false,
              "source": "depth_chart.csv"
            },
            {
              "match_id": 14083723,
              "match_date": "2026-05-23",
              "home_team": "Getafe",
              "away_team": "Osasuna",
              "team_side": "away",
              "is_starting_11": 1,
              "team": "Osasuna",
              "opponent": "Getafe",
              "stats": {
                "minutes": 90,
                "rating": 6.4,
                "assists": 0,
                "expected_assists": 0.0035,
                "total_shots": 0,
                "total_pass": 19,
                "accurate_pass": 16,
                "tackles": 1,
                "tackles_won": 1,
                "interceptions": 2,
                "clearances": 9,
                "aerial_won": 1,
                "duels_won": 2,
                "ball_recovery": 2
              },
              "has_player_stats": true,
              "league_name": "LaLiga",
              "league_id": "8",
              "league_slug": "laliga",
              "league_country": "Spain",
              "season_id": "77559",
              "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26",
              "season_year": "25/26"
            },
            {
              "match_id": 14083696,
              "match_date": "2026-05-17",
              "home_team": "Osasuna",
              "away_team": "Espanyol",
              "team_side": "home",
              "is_starting_11": 1,
              "team": "Osasuna",
              "opponent": "Espanyol",
              "stats": {
                "minutes": 90,
                "rating": 6.6,
                "assists": 1,
                "expected_goals": 0.2174,
                "expected_assists": 0.0095,
                "total_shots": 3,
                "shots_on_target": 1,
                "shots_off_target": 2,
                "total_pass": 73,
                "accurate_pass": 67,
                "key_pass": 1,
                "tackles": 3,
                "tackles_won": 2,
                "interceptions": 1,
                "clearances": 2,
                "aerial_won": 1,
                "duels_won": 4,
                "ball_recovery": 3
              },
              "has_player_stats": true,
              "league_name": "LaLiga",
              "league_id": "8",
              "league_slug": "laliga",
              "league_country": "Spain",
              "season_id": "77559",
              "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26",
              "season_year": "25/26"
            },
            {
              "match_id": 14083634,
              "match_date": "2026-05-12",
              "home_team": "Osasuna",
              "away_team": "Atlético Madrid",
              "team_side": "home",
              "is_starting_11": 1,
              "team": "Osasuna",
              "opponent": "Atlético Madrid",
              "stats": {
                "minutes": 90,
                "rating": 6.3,
                "assists": 0,
                "expected_assists": 0.0211,
                "total_shots": 0,
                "total_pass": 53,
                "accurate_pass": 50,
                "clearances": 1,
                "ball_recovery": 6
              },
              "has_player_stats": true,
              "league_name": "LaLiga",
              "league_id": "8",
              "league_slug": "laliga",
              "league_country": "Spain",
              "season_id": "77559",
              "season_name": "LaLiga 25/26",
              "season_year": "25/26"
            }
          ],
          "ranking": {
            "global_player_rank": 16377,
            "combined_rank_score": 973.0,
            "ranking_source": "sofascore_plus_fifa_csv",
            "ranking_status": "combined",
            "sofascore_rank": 682.0,
            "sofascore_rating": 6.77,
            "sofascore_appearances": 30.0,
            "fifa_rank": 1264.0,
            "fifa_overall": 78.0,
            "fifa_source": "EA SPORTS FC official ratings",
            "match_squad_rank": 2,
            "squad_role": "starter",
            "projected_match_rating": 6.6659,
            "source_file": "data/player_rankings.csv",
            "player_name": "Enzo Boyomo",
            "ranking_neighbors": {
              "upper": [
                {
                  "player_name": "Aleksandar Kolev",
                  "ranking": 16372
                },
                {
                  "player_name": "Aleksandr Martynovich",
                  "ranking": 16373
                },
                {
                  "player_name": "Mateo González Cortés",
                  "ranking": 16374
                },
                {
                  "player_name": "Azzedine Ounahi",
                  "ranking": 16375
                },
                {
                  "player_name": "José Sá",
                  "ranking": 16376
                }
              ],
              "lower": [
                {
                  "player_name": "António Silva",
                  "ranking": 16378
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                },
                {
                  "player_name": "Rodrigo Huescas",
                  "ranking": 20662
                },
                {
                  "player_name": "Xavier Arreaga",
                  "ranking": 20663
                }
              ]
            }
          }
        }
      },
      "team_totals": {
        "projected_goals": 1,
        "expected_goals": 1.02,
        "expected_assists": 0.37,
        "total_shots": 10,
        "shots_on_target": 3,
        "total_passes": 223,
        "interceptions": 3,
        "tackles": 12,
        "avg_rating": 82.29,
        "possession_estimated_pct": 50.1,
        "pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3
      }
    }
  },
  "antagonist_report": {
    "home_attacking_duels": [
      {
        "attacker": "Aimar Oroz",
        "attacker_role": "LW",
        "attacker_market_value": 6900000,
        "attacker_height": 177,
        "attacker_skill_quality": 0.485,
        "defenders": [
          "Abdel Abqar"
        ],
        "defender_roles": [
          "CB"
        ],
        "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.441,
        "duel_zone": "LW vs CB",
        "numerical_situation": "1v1",
        "duel_win_rate": 0.396,
        "xg_contribution": 0.1964,
        "shots_in_zone": 1.7,
        "dribbles_attempted": 3,
        "dribbles_successful": 1.0,
        "aerial_duels": 2,
        "aerial_won": 1.0,
        "crosses_in_zone": 2.0,
        "fouls_drawn": 1.2,
        "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW",
        "defender_stats": [
          {
            "player": "Abdel Abqar",
            "role": "CB",
            "market_value": 3300000,
            "tackles_attempted": 1.9,
            "tackles_won": 1.7,
            "fouls_committed": 0.6,
            "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7,
            "clearances_in_zone": 0.6,
            "aerial_duels_won": 1.0,
            "defensive_success_rate": 0.604
          }
        ],
        "duel_analysis": "Aimar Oroz (LW) faces tough defensive resistance against Abdel Abqar in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%.  Projected xG contribution: 0.196 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball."
      },
      {
        "attacker": "Jonathan Dubasin",
        "attacker_role": "CAM",
        "attacker_market_value": 4300000,
        "attacker_height": 180,
        "attacker_skill_quality": 0.454,
        "defenders": [
          "Mario Martín"
        ],
        "defender_roles": [
          "CM"
        ],
        "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.531,
        "duel_zone": "CAM vs CM",
        "numerical_situation": "1v1",
        "duel_win_rate": 0.397,
        "xg_contribution": 0.0475,
        "shots_in_zone": 2.1,
        "dribbles_attempted": 3,
        "dribbles_successful": 1.0,
        "aerial_duels": 2,
        "aerial_won": 1.1,
        "crosses_in_zone": 0.0,
        "fouls_drawn": 1.2,
        "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW",
        "defender_stats": [
          {
            "player": "Mario Martín",
            "role": "CM",
            "market_value": 10700000,
            "tackles_attempted": 2.0,
            "tackles_won": 1.8,
            "fouls_committed": 0.5,
            "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8,
            "clearances_in_zone": 0.5,
            "aerial_duels_won": 0.9,
            "defensive_success_rate": 0.603
          }
        ],
        "duel_analysis": "Jonathan Dubasin (CAM) faces tough defensive resistance against Mario Martín in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 40%.  Projected xG contribution: 0.048 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball."
      },
      {
        "attacker": "Raúl Moro",
        "attacker_role": "RW",
        "attacker_market_value": 3300000,
        "attacker_height": 169,
        "attacker_skill_quality": 0.441,
        "defenders": [
          "Abdel Abqar"
        ],
        "defender_roles": [
          "CB"
        ],
        "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.441,
        "duel_zone": "RW vs CB",
        "numerical_situation": "1v1",
        "duel_win_rate": 0.36,
        "xg_contribution": 0.1752,
        "shots_in_zone": 1.6,
        "dribbles_attempted": 3,
        "dribbles_successful": 1.0,
        "aerial_duels": 2,
        "aerial_won": 0.8,
        "crosses_in_zone": 1.9,
        "fouls_drawn": 1.2,
        "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW",
        "defender_stats": [
          {
            "player": "Abdel Abqar",
            "role": "CB",
            "market_value": 3300000,
            "tackles_attempted": 1.9,
            "tackles_won": 1.8,
            "fouls_committed": 0.6,
            "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7,
            "clearances_in_zone": 0.6,
            "aerial_duels_won": 1.2,
            "defensive_success_rate": 0.64
          }
        ],
        "duel_analysis": "Raúl Moro (RW) faces tough defensive resistance against Abdel Abqar in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 36%.  Projected xG contribution: 0.175 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball."
      },
      {
        "attacker": "Raúl García de Haro",
        "attacker_role": "ST",
        "attacker_market_value": 3100000,
        "attacker_height": 192,
        "attacker_skill_quality": 0.439,
        "defenders": [
          "Abdel Abqar",
          "Zaid Romero"
        ],
        "defender_roles": [
          "CB",
          "CB"
        ],
        "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.436,
        "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle",
        "numerical_situation": "1v2",
        "duel_win_rate": 0.209,
        "xg_contribution": 0.0763,
        "shots_in_zone": 2.1,
        "dribbles_attempted": 2,
        "dribbles_successful": 0.4,
        "aerial_duels": 3,
        "aerial_won": 2.0,
        "crosses_in_zone": 0.0,
        "fouls_drawn": 1.4,
        "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW",
        "defender_stats": [
          {
            "player": "Abdel Abqar",
            "role": "CB",
            "market_value": 3300000,
            "tackles_attempted": 1.0,
            "tackles_won": 1.1,
            "fouls_committed": 0.6,
            "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7,
            "clearances_in_zone": 0.6,
            "aerial_duels_won": 0.5,
            "defensive_success_rate": 0.791
          },
          {
            "player": "Zaid Romero",
            "role": "CB",
            "market_value": 2400000,
            "tackles_attempted": 1.0,
            "tackles_won": 1.0,
            "fouls_committed": 0.6,
            "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7,
            "clearances_in_zone": 0.6,
            "aerial_duels_won": 0.5,
            "defensive_success_rate": 0.791
          }
        ],
        "duel_analysis": "Raúl García de Haro (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Abdel Abqar and Zaid Romero in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 21%.  Projected xG contribution: 0.076 — with very limited chance creation expected."
      }
    ],
    "away_attacking_duels": [
      {
        "attacker": "Martín Satriano",
        "attacker_role": "ST",
        "attacker_market_value": 10600000,
        "attacker_height": 187,
        "attacker_skill_quality": 0.529,
        "defenders": [
          "Abel Bretones",
          "Jorge Herrando"
        ],
        "defender_roles": [
          "CB",
          "CB"
        ],
        "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.441,
        "duel_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle",
        "numerical_situation": "1v2",
        "duel_win_rate": 0.228,
        "xg_contribution": 0.1576,
        "shots_in_zone": 2.2,
        "dribbles_attempted": 2,
        "dribbles_successful": 0.4,
        "aerial_duels": 3,
        "aerial_won": 1.8,
        "crosses_in_zone": 0.0,
        "fouls_drawn": 1.5,
        "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW",
        "defender_stats": [
          {
            "player": "Abel Bretones",
            "role": "CB",
            "market_value": 3400000,
            "tackles_attempted": 1.0,
            "tackles_won": 1.0,
            "fouls_committed": 0.6,
            "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7,
            "clearances_in_zone": 0.6,
            "aerial_duels_won": 0.6,
            "defensive_success_rate": 0.772
          },
          {
            "player": "Jorge Herrando",
            "role": "CB",
            "market_value": 3200000,
            "tackles_attempted": 1.0,
            "tackles_won": 1.0,
            "fouls_committed": 0.6,
            "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7,
            "clearances_in_zone": 0.6,
            "aerial_duels_won": 0.6,
            "defensive_success_rate": 0.772
          }
        ],
        "duel_analysis": "Martín Satriano (ST) is heavily outmatched defensively against Abel Bretones and Jorge Herrando in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 23%.  Projected xG contribution: 0.158 — with very limited chance creation expected."
      },
      {
        "attacker": "Christantus Uche",
        "attacker_role": "SS",
        "attacker_market_value": 13200000,
        "attacker_height": 190,
        "attacker_skill_quality": 0.559,
        "defenders": [
          "Jon Moncayola",
          "Abel Bretones"
        ],
        "defender_roles": [
          "CDM",
          "CB"
        ],
        "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.466,
        "duel_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle",
        "numerical_situation": "1v2",
        "duel_win_rate": 0.332,
        "xg_contribution": 0.1325,
        "shots_in_zone": 2.1,
        "dribbles_attempted": 3,
        "dribbles_successful": 0.9,
        "aerial_duels": 2,
        "aerial_won": 1.3,
        "crosses_in_zone": 0.0,
        "fouls_drawn": 1.4,
        "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW",
        "defender_stats": [
          {
            "player": "Jon Moncayola",
            "role": "CDM",
            "market_value": 7300000,
            "tackles_attempted": 1.0,
            "tackles_won": 1.0,
            "fouls_committed": 0.6,
            "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8,
            "clearances_in_zone": 0.5,
            "aerial_duels_won": 0.3,
            "defensive_success_rate": 0.668
          },
          {
            "player": "Abel Bretones",
            "role": "CB",
            "market_value": 3400000,
            "tackles_attempted": 1.0,
            "tackles_won": 0.9,
            "fouls_committed": 0.6,
            "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7,
            "clearances_in_zone": 0.5,
            "aerial_duels_won": 0.3,
            "defensive_success_rate": 0.668
          }
        ],
        "duel_analysis": "Christantus Uche (SS) faces tough defensive resistance against Jon Moncayola and Abel Bretones in a 2-defender block. Duel win probability: 33%.  Projected xG contribution: 0.133 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball."
      },
      {
        "attacker": "Ramón Terrats",
        "attacker_role": "LWB",
        "attacker_market_value": 3200000,
        "attacker_height": 179,
        "attacker_skill_quality": 0.44,
        "defenders": [
          "Valentin Rosier"
        ],
        "defender_roles": [
          "RB"
        ],
        "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.439,
        "duel_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run",
        "numerical_situation": "1v1",
        "duel_win_rate": 0.417,
        "xg_contribution": 0.0471,
        "shots_in_zone": 1.0,
        "dribbles_attempted": 2,
        "dribbles_successful": 0.7,
        "aerial_duels": 2,
        "aerial_won": 1.0,
        "crosses_in_zone": 2.2,
        "fouls_drawn": 1.1,
        "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW",
        "defender_stats": [
          {
            "player": "Valentin Rosier",
            "role": "RB",
            "market_value": 3100000,
            "tackles_attempted": 1.9,
            "tackles_won": 1.7,
            "fouls_committed": 0.6,
            "interceptions_in_zone": 0.7,
            "clearances_in_zone": 0.5,
            "aerial_duels_won": 1.0,
            "defensive_success_rate": 0.583
          }
        ],
        "duel_analysis": "Ramón Terrats (LWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Valentin Rosier in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 42%.  Projected xG contribution: 0.047 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball."
      },
      {
        "attacker": "Francho Serrano",
        "attacker_role": "RWB",
        "attacker_market_value": 3100000,
        "attacker_height": 177,
        "attacker_skill_quality": 0.439,
        "defenders": [
          "Enzo Boyomo"
        ],
        "defender_roles": [
          "LB"
        ],
        "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.575,
        "duel_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run",
        "numerical_situation": "1v1",
        "duel_win_rate": 0.323,
        "xg_contribution": 0.042,
        "shots_in_zone": 0.9,
        "dribbles_attempted": 2,
        "dribbles_successful": 0.6,
        "aerial_duels": 2,
        "aerial_won": 1.0,
        "crosses_in_zone": 2.2,
        "fouls_drawn": 1.3,
        "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW",
        "defender_stats": [
          {
            "player": "Enzo Boyomo",
            "role": "LB",
            "market_value": 14600000,
            "tackles_attempted": 2.0,
            "tackles_won": 2.0,
            "fouls_committed": 0.5,
            "interceptions_in_zone": 0.9,
            "clearances_in_zone": 0.5,
            "aerial_duels_won": 1.0,
            "defensive_success_rate": 0.677
          }
        ],
        "duel_analysis": "Francho Serrano (RWB) faces tough defensive resistance against Enzo Boyomo in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 32%.  Projected xG contribution: 0.042 — and is restricted in space and time on the ball."
      },
      {
        "attacker": "Mario Martín",
        "attacker_role": "CM",
        "attacker_market_value": 10700000,
        "attacker_height": 177,
        "attacker_skill_quality": 0.531,
        "defenders": [
          "Jon Moncayola"
        ],
        "defender_roles": [
          "CDM"
        ],
        "def_skill_quality_avg": 0.49,
        "duel_zone": "Central Mid vs Defensive Mid — Pressing/Creation Duel",
        "numerical_situation": "1v1",
        "duel_win_rate": 0.448,
        "xg_contribution": 0.1208,
        "shots_in_zone": 1.7,
        "dribbles_attempted": 2,
        "dribbles_successful": 0.8,
        "aerial_duels": 2,
        "aerial_won": 1.0,
        "crosses_in_zone": 0.0,
        "fouls_drawn": 1.2,
        "pressing_intensity_on_attacker": "LOW",
        "defender_stats": [
          {
            "player": "Jon Moncayola",
            "role": "CDM",
            "market_value": 7300000,
            "tackles_attempted": 2.0,
            "tackles_won": 1.7,
            "fouls_committed": 0.6,
            "interceptions_in_zone": 0.8,
            "clearances_in_zone": 0.5,
            "aerial_duels_won": 1.0,
            "defensive_success_rate": 0.552
          }
        ],
        "duel_analysis": "Mario Martín (CM) is evenly matched against Jon Moncayola in a direct 1v1 contest. Duel win probability: 45%.  Projected xG contribution: 0.121 — with neither side clearly dominant."
      }
    ],
    "midfield_battle": {
      "home_midfield_power": 0.511,
      "away_midfield_power": 0.504,
      "home_creative_power": 0.392,
      "away_creative_power": 0.407,
      "home_defensive_power": 0.392,
      "away_defensive_power": 0.407,
      "home_dominance_ratio": 0.503,
      "home_midfield_count": 5,
      "away_midfield_count": 4,
      "home_midfield_players": [
        "Jon Moncayola",
        "Aimar Oroz",
        "Jonathan Dubasin",
        "Raúl Moro",
        "Lucas Torró"
      ],
      "away_midfield_players": [
        "Mario Martín",
        "Orel Mangala",
        "Ramón Terrats",
        "Francho Serrano"
      ],
      "possession_advantage": "neutral",
      "estimated_possession_home_pct": 49.9,
      "estimated_possession_away_pct": 50.1,
      "home_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.2,
      "away_pressing_actions_per_90": 6.3,
      "home_key_passes_projected": 3.9,
      "away_key_passes_projected": 3.9,
      "home_throughball_threat": 1.8,
      "away_throughball_threat": 1.8,
      "key_personal_duel": "Jon Moncayola vs Mario Martín",
      "midfield_lambda_factor_home": 0.999,
      "midfield_lambda_factor_away": 1.001
    },
    "formation_analysis": {
      "home_formation": "4-2-3-1",
      "away_formation": "3-4-2-1",
      "home_tactical_bonus": 0.05,
      "away_tactical_bonus": -0.05,
      "formation_verdict": "Tactical parity between 4-2-3-1 and 3-4-2-1. Match outcome driven primarily by individual player quality."
    },
    "home_lambda": 1.477,
    "away_lambda": 1.02,
    "home_top_threat_zones": [
      "LW vs CB",
      "RW vs CB"
    ],
    "away_top_threat_zones": [
      "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle",
      "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle"
    ],
    "home_player_antagonists": {
      "Aimar Oroz": {
        "opponents": [
          "Abdel Abqar",
          "Francho Serrano"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "LW vs CB",
        "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing"
      },
      "Jonathan Dubasin": {
        "opponents": [
          "Mario Martín"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM",
        "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing"
      },
      "Raúl Moro": {
        "opponents": [
          "Abdel Abqar",
          "Mario Martín"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "RW vs CB",
        "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing"
      },
      "Raúl García de Haro": {
        "opponents": [
          "Abdel Abqar",
          "Zaid Romero"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle",
        "source": "attacking_duel"
      },
      "Abel Bretones": {
        "opponents": [
          "Martín Satriano",
          "Christantus Uche"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle",
        "source": "defensive_duel"
      },
      "Jorge Herrando": {
        "opponents": [
          "Martín Satriano"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle",
        "source": "defensive_duel"
      },
      "Jon Moncayola": {
        "opponents": [
          "Christantus Uche",
          "Mario Martín",
          "Orel Mangala"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle",
        "source": "defensive_duel, midfield_pairing"
      },
      "Valentin Rosier": {
        "opponents": [
          "Ramón Terrats"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run",
        "source": "defensive_duel"
      },
      "Enzo Boyomo": {
        "opponents": [
          "Francho Serrano"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run",
        "source": "defensive_duel"
      },
      "Lucas Torró": {
        "opponents": [
          "Ramón Terrats"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Midfield lane",
        "source": "midfield_pairing"
      },
      "Sergio Herrera": {
        "opponents": [
          "Enes Ünal",
          "Christantus Uche"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Shape fallback",
        "source": "formation_fallback"
      }
    },
    "away_player_antagonists": {
      "Abdel Abqar": {
        "opponents": [
          "Aimar Oroz",
          "Raúl Moro",
          "Raúl García de Haro"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "LW vs CB",
        "source": "defensive_duel"
      },
      "Mario Martín": {
        "opponents": [
          "Jonathan Dubasin",
          "Jon Moncayola",
          "Raúl Moro"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "CAM vs CM",
        "source": "defensive_duel, attacking_duel, midfield_pairing"
      },
      "Zaid Romero": {
        "opponents": [
          "Raúl García de Haro"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle",
        "source": "defensive_duel"
      },
      "Martín Satriano": {
        "opponents": [
          "Abel Bretones",
          "Jorge Herrando"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle",
        "source": "attacking_duel"
      },
      "Christantus Uche": {
        "opponents": [
          "Jon Moncayola",
          "Abel Bretones"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Shadow Striker vs CDM + CB — Zone 14 Battle",
        "source": "attacking_duel"
      },
      "Ramón Terrats": {
        "opponents": [
          "Valentin Rosier",
          "Lucas Torró"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Left Wingback vs Right Back — Overlapping Run",
        "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing"
      },
      "Francho Serrano": {
        "opponents": [
          "Enzo Boyomo",
          "Aimar Oroz"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Right Wingback vs Left Back — Overlapping Run",
        "source": "attacking_duel, midfield_pairing"
      },
      "Orel Mangala": {
        "opponents": [
          "Jon Moncayola"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Midfield lane",
        "source": "midfield_pairing"
      },
      "David Soria": {
        "opponents": [
          "Raúl García de Haro",
          "Jonathan Dubasin"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Shape fallback",
        "source": "formation_fallback"
      },
      "Andrés García": {
        "opponents": [
          "Raúl García de Haro"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Shape fallback",
        "source": "formation_fallback"
      },
      "Enes Ünal": {
        "opponents": [
          "Enzo Boyomo",
          "Jorge Herrando"
        ],
        "primary_zone": "Shape fallback",
        "source": "formation_fallback"
      }
    },
    "key_tactical_insight": "Midfield is evenly contested — Jon Moncayola vs Mario Martín will be the pivotal duel. Total antagonist xG — Home: 0.50, Away: 0.50. Home danger zone: LW vs CB. Away danger zone: Striker vs Two Centre Backs — 1v2 Aerial/Physical Battle.",
    "lambda_factors": {
      "home_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0122,
      "away_gk_opposition_factor": 1.0127,
      "home_set_piece_bonus": 0.143,
      "away_set_piece_bonus": 0.169,
      "home_defensive_solidity_vs": 1.0068,
      "away_defensive_solidity_vs": 0.9989,
      "home_midfield_factor": 0.999,
      "away_midfield_factor": 1.001,
      "stage_discount": 1.0,
      "quality_gap_applied": false,
      "home_avg_quality": 0.4639,
      "away_avg_quality": 0.484,
      "avg_quality_gap": -0.0201,
      "squad_value_gap_log": -0.2363,
      "top5_value_gap_log": -0.2532,
      "attack_value_gap_log": -0.5657,
      "elite_count_gap": 0,
      "combined_quality_gap": -0.0618,
      "stronger_lambda_boost": 0.0,
      "weaker_lambda_suppression": 0.0,
      "home_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.1531,
      "away_bench_lambda_bonus": 0.053,
      "home_bench_players_modelled": 7,
      "away_bench_players_modelled": 7,
      "mismatch_score_pressure_applied": false,
      "competitive_underdog_floor_applied": true,
      "competitive_underdog_floor": 1.02,
      "pre_competitive_floor_home_lambda": 1.477,
      "pre_competitive_floor_away_lambda": 0.88,
      "pre_calibration_home_lambda": 1.3431,
      "pre_calibration_away_lambda": 0.907,
      "competition_calibration_applied": false,
      "competition_calibration_reason": "no_sofascore_matches_data",
      "competition_calibration_samples": 0,
      "competition_observed_total_goals": 0.0,
      "competition_calibration_scale": 1.0,
      "neutral_share_preserved": false,
      "final_home_lambda": 1.477,
      "final_away_lambda": 1.02
    }
  },
  "home_standing": {
    "available": true,
    "team_position": 11,
    "opponent_position": 20,
    "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0957,
    "attack_index": 1.0,
    "defense_concede_index": 1.254,
    "form_multiplier": 1.0,
    "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0,
    "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 1.5,
    "team_ppg": 0.0,
    "opponent_ppg": 0.0
  },
  "away_standing": {
    "available": true,
    "team_position": 20,
    "opponent_position": 11,
    "standing_lambda_multiplier": 1.0,
    "attack_index": 1.0,
    "defense_concede_index": 1.0,
    "form_multiplier": 1.0,
    "team_attack_rate_contextual": 0.0,
    "opp_defense_rate_contextual": 0.0,
    "team_ppg": 0.0,
    "opponent_ppg": 0.0
  },
  "timestamp": "2026-08-31T13:31:01Z"
}